Aircraft availability remains one of the most significant constraints on aviation industry’s growth, globally.A structural mismatch between airline demand and manufacturing capacity is expected to persist until at least 2031-2034, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).Although deliveries of new aircraft began to pick up this year and production expected to accelerate in 2026, demand is forecast to outstrip the availability of aircraft and engines.The global trade body of airline says the normalisation of the structural mismatch between airline requirements and production capacity is unlikely before the 2031-2034 period due to irreversible losses on deliveries over the past five years and a record-high order backlog.The current high order backlogs and persistent supply chain issues mean the constraint on aviation growth will likely be a hallmark of this decade.Delivery shortfalls now total at least 5,300 aircraft, while the order backlog has surpassed 17,000 aircraft, a number equal to almost 60% of the active fleet—this backlog is equivalent to nearly 12 years of the current production capacity, IATA noted recently.In turn, the average fleet age has risen to 15.1 years (12.8 years for aircraft in the passenger fleet, 19.6 years for cargo aircraft, and 14.5 years for the wide-body fleet), and aircraft in storage (for all reasons) exceed 5,000 aircraft, one of the highest levels in history despite the severe shortage of new aircraft.Due to the lack of new deliveries, various airlines are often forced to operate older, less fuel-efficient aircraft for longer, which increases operational costs (fuel and maintenance) and slows progress on environmental targets.Airlines are unable to add new routes or frequencies and, in some cases, are forced to cut existing services.Growth plans get delayed often, connectivity is reduced, and secondary or developing markets are often hit first.“Airlines are feeling the impact of the aerospace supply chain challenges across their business,” noted IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh.“Higher leasing costs, reduced scheduling flexibility, delayed sustainability gains, and increased reliance on suboptimal aircraft types are the most obvious challenges. Airlines are missing opportunities to strengthen their top-line, improve their environmental performance, and serve customers.“Meanwhile, travellers are seeing higher costs from the resulting tighter demand and supply conditions. No effort should be spared to accelerate solutions before the impact becomes even more acute.”As production bottlenecks continue, new challenges and impacts are being revealed such as delivery delays being compounded by several factors such as airframe production outpacing engine production, longer timelines for new aircraft certification (from 12-24 months to four or even five years), tariffs on metals and electronics resulting from US-China trade tensions, and a shortage of skilled labour, especially in engine and component manufacturing, constraining production ramp-up plans.IATA says fuel efficiency improvements are also slowing as the fleet ages. Historically, fuel efficiency improved by 2.0% per year, but this slowed to 0.3% in 2025 and is projected at 1.0% for 2026.A recent study by IATA and Oliver Wymann estimated that the cost to the airline industry of supply chain bottlenecks will be more than $11bn in 2025, driven by four main factors of excess fuel costs, additional maintenance costs, increasing engine leasing costs, and surplus inventory holding costs.To help expedite solutions, the study points to several considerations such as opening up aftermarket best practices by supporting Maintenance, Repair and Operations (MRO) to be less dependent on Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) driven commercial licensing models, as well as facilitating access to alternative sourcing for materials and services.It also recommends enhancing supply chain visibility to spot risks early, using data more extensively in leveraging predictive maintenance insights, and expanding repair and parts capacity to accelerate repair approvals.Already, the global aviation industry is under pressure to meet demanding net-zero carbon emissions targets by 2050. The high cost and limited availability of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) make this a significant challenge requiring massive investment.The structural mismatch is not a temporary hiccup, industry analysts say.IATA’s forecast is that the supply-demand imbalance will persist for the rest of the decade, with a return to normalcy unlikely before 2034.Clearly, the problem's resolution is hindered by the sheer scale of the backlogs and the time required to address deep-seated issues within the aerospace manufacturing ecosystem.Generally, reduced air connectivity affects tourism, trade, cargo flows and business travel, with knock-on effects on economic growth, particularly for aviation-dependent economies.Limited aircraft availability acts as a structural bottleneck for the aviation industry — restricting growth, raising costs, weakening reliability, and slowing sustainability progress — at a time when global air travel demand continues to recover and expand!
Pratap John
Pratap John is Business Editor at Gulf Times. He has mainstream media experience of nearly 30 years in specialties such as energy, business & finance, banking, telecom and aviation, and covered many major events across the globe.