United Nations reports have sounded the alarm, warning that conditions for a strong El Nino could significantly increase the likelihood of droughts, floods, and severe storms worldwide.According to the World Food Programme's (WFP) latest report, El Nino conditions have been confirmed, with an 80 to 90 percent probability that the phenomenon will intensify during 2026, potentially becoming one of the strongest on record. WFP stressed that early action could protect millions of people in the most vulnerable countries.The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also warned that El Nino is expected to strengthen over the coming months, likely peaking between July and September, increasing the risk of extreme weather events across several regions of the world.The WMO, in a recent report, explained that the phenomenon is inevitable and has already developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is expected to strengthen further as sea surface temperatures continue to rise across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.Acting Executive Director of WFP, Carl Skau, warned that the international community only has a small window of opportunity to prevent another major food crisis, stressing that swift action is crucial to protecting families before losing their livelihoods.These projections are particularly important because they allow governments and humanitarian organizations to act early, before droughts, floods, or crop failures begin to impact food production.The warnings come at a time when global food systems are already under mounting pressure. Higher energy and fertilizer prices, driven in part by broader geopolitical tensions, are affecting agricultural production decisions and food prices, increasing the risk that climate shocks could push even more people into hunger.According to the WFP, the 2015-2016 El Nino affected around 60 million food-insecure people, highlighting how climate shocks can quickly escalate into large-scale hunger crises.The impact of El Nino varies by region, but hunger is expected to worsen most severely where climate shocks coincide with existing vulnerabilities. In southern Africa and the Sahel, drought could reduce crop yields and grazing lands, worsening food shortages. In the Horn of Africa, heavy rainfall could trigger floods that damage crops and disrupt markets. In Central America and the Caribbean, prolonged drought could reduce yields for small-scale farmers, while parts of Asia and the Pacific may experience both drought and flooding affecting major staple crops.In these regions, many communities rely on rain-fed agriculture and have limited capacity to absorb shocks, meaning that even minor disruptions can quickly affect food availability and accessibility.Climate experts believe that because El Nino can be forecast well in advance, governments can take preventive measures before its impacts peak. They noted that every US dollar invested in anticipatory action can help avert up to 7 dollars in future losses, making early intervention far more cost-effective than post-disaster recovery while helping vulnerable families remain self-reliant.Professor of Marine Environment at Qatar University, Dr. Mohsen Abdullah Al Yafei, stated that the El Nino is a dangerous and intensifying phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years. He added that it may contribute to rising sea levels through accelerated melting of polar ice, increasing the volume of ocean water and potentially inundating new coastal areas. In his remarks to QNA, Qatar University's Marine Environment professor said that global warming is the primary driver behind the intensification of the El Nino phenomenon. The rising temperatures are affecting ocean surface waters, particularly in the Pacific Ocean, the world's largest, causing warmer sea surface conditions. He said that seasonal winds then push this warm water toward land, raising temperatures and contributing to severe weather disruptions, including the abnormal heatwaves in Europe, flooding in some regions, and droughts in others. He added that El Nino is expected to strengthen by more than 60 percent compared to the previous event and could extend into early 2027.Dr. Al Yafei said the phenomenon has multiple adverse effects, including a rise in average global temperatures, longer heatwaves, and increased mortality rates, particularly in regions with limited capacity to cope with climate variability. He warned that prolonged drought conditions can also trigger wildfires, contributing to air pollution. He further highlighted additional impacts such as declining agricultural yields, heavy rainfall leading to flash floods and landslides, as well as fish die-offs and coral bleaching. He noted that coral reefs, which host around 90 percent of marine life, are highly sensitive to temperature changes and typically cannot survive when sea temperatures exceed 32 degrees Celsius. He cautioned that continued El Nino events could threaten the long-term survival of coral ecosystems, potentially leading to their disappearance by 2050.The professor stressed that these environmental impacts translate into significant economic losses, including widespread damage to farms, rising food prices due to reduced crop yields, and increased costs for insurance companies covering agricultural damage, fatalities, and wildfire-related losses. In marine environments, he added, El Nino can force fish migration and disrupt food chains due to mass die-offs.Regarding the role of international organizations, such as the United Nations and the FAO, in coordinating efforts between countries to prevent climate shocks from escalating into widespread hunger crises, Dr. Al Yafei expressed his regret that most countries only take action after disaster strikes. He stated that there should be coordination between the United Nations and donor countries to protect as many lives as possible, emphasizing the importance of early action to address the effects of El Nino. He cited the example of drought-resistant seeds that can be distributed to farmers in drought-prone areas, as these seeds do not require large amounts of water and planting schedules that can be postponed if the drought is severe. In the case of floods and hurricanes, he stressed the necessity of evacuating people and protecting their lives, especially the elderly and children.Concluding his remarks, he highlighted the importance of early warning systems for heat waves, floods, and droughts and stated that early preparation in all sectors is a crucial element.
Sunday, July 05, 2026
Sunday, July 05, 2026