Flavio Bolsonaro did leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva a huge favour by fleeing his legal problems in Brazil to declare himself Brazil’s rightful “leader” from his new home in the United States, analysts and Brazilian officials said. Bolsonaro’s departure, which came after he refused to comply with a Supreme Court order to surrender his passports, weakens an emboldened conservative opposition in Brazil’s Congress and lends credibility to Lula’s accusations of US meddling to help the Bolsonaro family, they said. Bolsonaro says he was a victim of an electoral coup, but has not provided evidence for electoral fraud. While Lula faces a groaning inbox of challenges, from taming growing debt to grooming a credible leftist successor, he now has one less Bolsonaro to worry about, allowing him to build a more transactional relationship with leaderless congressional opponents, they added. “Considering the local dynamics, Lula benefits from Flavio’s escape to the US,” said Rodrigo Russo, a Sao Paulo-based partner at consultancy firm Control Risks. Lula’s victory has been recognised by Brazil’s federal electoral court, global leaders, international observers, and Bolsonaro’s own party, which did not back Bolsonaro’s claims of electoral fraud. On Thursday, the day after Flavio moved to the United States, his political allies sought to distance themselves from his claims of being Brazil’s legitimate “leader.” Bolsonaro’s exit is likely to spark a power vacuum over who will now lead Brazil’s right that Lula may be able to exploit. “There’s generally more willingness to engage with an administration that has secured a new term,” Rafael Cortez, a political scientist and partner at Tendencias Consultoria, said. “An opening for dialogue emerges.” Flavio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, is currently serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a 2022 coup, while his brother, former lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, is also based in the United States and unlikely to return to Brazil. Jair Bolsonaro’s three other children are not currently seen as credible torchbearers of Bolsonarismo. Michelle Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s wife and a prominent evangelical who appeals to millions of Brazil’s faithful, is taking her first steps in Congress after being elected senator this month. On Tuesday, the head of Flavio Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, Valdemar Costa Neto, posted a photo on X of him smiling alongside her, saying they had discussed “the future of our party and the challenges we face ahead.” Flavio’s exit has weakened Bolsonarismo, a Lula aide said.
