Increased debt issuances from Qatar helped offset contractions across wider regional markets during the first half of 2026, even as total sustainable bond volumes in the Middle East fell under geopolitical pressure.
According to the report ‘Sustainability Insights: Middle East Sustainable Bond Outlook Midyear 2026: Market Momentum Despite Headwinds’ published by S&P Global Ratings, sustainable bond values across the region dropped 24% year-on-year in the first six months to $7bn, down from $10bn in H1 2025.
The rating agency adjusted its full-year forecast for regional issuance to between $15bn and $20bn, down from a previous estimate of $20bn to $25bn. “That said, the decline was less pronounced than the over 40% drop in total bond issuance in the same period,” stated the report, citing S&P Capital IQ data.
Sustainable instruments showed far greater resilience than the broader capital markets, where total regional bond issuance plunged by more than 40% over the same period. Strong early momentum saw $5bn issued in the first quarter, backed by $4bn brought to market during January alone, the report stated.
While the UAE and Saudi Arabia maintained their position as market leaders, accounting for roughly 98% of overall issuance by value, expanding output from Qatari issuers helped balance significant declines in other regional markets, including Turkiye.
The rating agency stated that regional financial institutions drove the vast majority of capital market activity, accounting for 80% of issued sustainable debt by value and 87% by volume. Heightened market uncertainty kept non-financial corporations on the sidelines, with corporate sustainable debt issuances falling by more than 80% as firms turned to direct bank loans and private placements to handle debt refinancing, it also stated.
According to the report, issuance picked up in the second quarter following an April ceasefire and a subsequent memorandum of understanding signed between the US and Iran in June, providing a brief window for regional issuers to bring $2bn in sustainable debt to market.
Borrowing costs remain elevated, however, as the US Federal Reserve is now expected to hold interest rates steady rather than deliver previously anticipated monetary easing, the report noted.
S&P Global Ratings maintained a positive medium-term outlook for Gulf sustainable debt, pointing to an estimated $50bn maturity wall between 2027 and 2030 that will require refinancing. The rating agency added that medium-term demand will be supported by national energy transition strategies, new bond structures, including transition and blue bonds, and ongoing demand for sustainable sukuk.
