Rachel Reeves will deliver a low-key update on the state of the UK economy this week, as she seeks to draw a line under the endless cycle of speculation that’s preceded recent twice-yearly fiscal events.
In the House of Commons on Tuesday, the Chancellor of the Exchequer will deliver what the Treasury has internally dubbed a “spring forecast” rather than the usual “spring statement,” people familiar with the matter said. That means she’ll respond to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest economic projections without laying out the usual menu of new tax-and-spend policies, they said.
The pared-down intervention is part of the chancellor’s pledge to deliver just one significant fiscal event a year in an effort to limit the near-perpetual speculation on tax and spending associated with holding two big annual policy events. Her aim is to convey a sense of stability in the public finances after raising the annual tax burden by more than £60bn ($81bn) in her last two budgets.
She’ll be delivering the speech in the aftermath of a crunch special election in the Manchester district of Gorton and Denton special, which has pitted hers and Keir Starmer’s Labour Party in a three-way fight with the Greens and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Results are expected in the early hours of Friday, and defeat for Labour in a seat they easily won 19 months ago could spell trouble ahead for the prime minister, who is vulnerable to a potential leadership challenge given his poor approval ratings and Labour’s weak standing in the polls.
Another moment of possible peril for Britain’s premier looms in May, when polling suggests Labour will suffer heavy losses in a round of local elections.
“Just because the government wants a non-event, a quick response to the latest OBR forecasts, doesn’t mean that’s what they, or the market, will get,” said Helen Thomas, CEO of macroeconomic consultancy BlondeMoney and a former adviser to ex-Chancellor George Osborne. “In the wake of the information from Gorton and Denton, a cabinet reshuffle could be in the offing.”
Reeves faces calls to use the update to make changes to the UK’s student finance system, which has saddled graduates — especially those who took out loans between 2012 and 2023 — with mounting debts as their repayments fail to keep pace with the interest accruing on their loans.
Reeves in November froze the earnings threshold at which graduates begin repaying their loans for three years — a move that will mean more have to begin repayments sooner than they otherwise would have.
The main opposition Tories — who were responsible for introducing the system — have said they’d cut interest rates on the loans, and Starmer himself said on Wednesday that the government would “look at ways to make it fairer.”
However, the government downplayed the prospect of anything being announced at the spring update.
“The spring forecast is just a forecast,” Starmer’s spokesman, Tom Wells, told reporters on Thursday when asked about possible changes to student loan provisions. “We’ve never intended to include any policy.”
The sedate run-in to Reeves’ latest economic update is in stark contrast to the build-up to her last budget in November, which was marked by damaging leaks and persistent speculation about tax changes in the weeks’ prior, including the fear that she was set to increase income tax. That was a controversial idea given Labour’s manifesto commitment not to change the basic rate of income tax.
In the end, the chancellor decided to freeze income tax thresholds as part of a total £26bn package of tax hikes to create a healthier buffer against her fiscal rules. The freeze in thresholds, however, sparked a backlash amid accusations that it amounted to an effective tax hike on working people, essentially breaking Labour’s election manifesto promises.
As well as giving its latest growth forecasts, the OBR is due to give an update on Reeves’ so-called fiscal headroom — the buffer she has against meeting her main fiscal rule, which is that day-to-day government spending should be covered by tax revenues by the end of the Parliament.
Reeves increased that buffer from £9.9bn at the last budget — which was near historic lows — to more than £20bn, which is in line with the average that chancellors have enjoyed since 2010. The bigger margin was designed to end perennial speculation about whether taxes would need to rise or spending would need to be cut to ensure the chancellor kept meeting her rules, which she has repeatedly described as “non-negotiable.”
The enhanced headroom was also designed to win over financial markets, which had been hurting Reeves with relatively higher borrowing costs than other Group of Seven nations, leading to elevated debt interest payments. The UK government 10-year yield reached highs of 4.89% last year, and his since declined to 4.3%, but Britain still borrows at a premium compared to the likes of the US, France and Germany.
