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Qatar National Bank (QNB) predicted that upcoming US Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions could lead to a mild stagflation scenario, where growth slows while inflation remains above target. In its weekly report, QNB noted that the current US administration has clearly focused on monetary policy and has urged the Federal Reserve to deliver large rate cuts and adopt a more flexible stance. The report explained that monetary policy decisions are normally based on forecasts of key macroeconomic variables and a careful analysis of how interest-rate changes affect economic activity and prices, with the Federal Open Market Committee typically carrying out this process through extensive technical deliberations free from political pressure. The bank observed that new economic trends has unsettled financial markets, causing significant volatility as investors try to determine the appropriate level of interest rates for pricing assets in the new macroeconomic environment. US interest rates and Treasury yields were said to provide important information on macroeconomic expectations, particularly through the real yield curve (the gap between yields on 10-year and 2-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). A wider gap indicates expectations of weaker short-term growth relative to the long term. This gap has widened in 2025 even though long-term real yields have remained stable, suggesting that longer-term growth expectations have not changed while near-term activity is expected to weaken. Recent US labor-market data were highlighted as evidence of this slowdown, showing slower job creation and a gradual rise in unemployment in recent months. Consensus forecasts for real GDP growth have also been revised downward, with expectations for 2025 and 2026 reduced by about 0.5 percentage points to 1.5% and 1.7% respectively, levels approaching the weakest annual growth since the post-COVID recession. The report stressed that real interest rates remain highly restrictive. With the federal funds rate upper bound at 4.5% and inflation at roughly 2.7%, the real rate is close to 1.8%, well above the estimated neutral rate of roughly 0.5-1.0 percentage points. QNB argued that current rates are overly tight and need adjustment to avoid a sharp growth slowdown. Short-term Treasury yields were described as closely tracking market expectations for the Fed's policy path. The two-year Treasury yield has fallen about 60 basis points this year (from a January peak of 4.40% to roughly 3.80%) signaling expectations of a substantial rate-cutting cycle. Markets now anticipate two 25-basis-point cuts by the end of 2025, followed by additional reductions through 2026, which would bring the policy rate down to around 3% by the end of that year. QNB concluded that these indicators point to a moderate stagflationary environment, with inflation staying above the Fed's 2% target even as growth weakens. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee were reported to have acknowledged a shift in the balance of risks toward slower growth, with markets expecting a policy-easing cycle that lowers the federal funds rate to roughly 3% by the end of 2026.

A spate of inflation data confronts US stock investors in the coming week as markets grapple with fresh uncertainty over tariffs and government bond yields, while equities hover at lofty valuations. The benchmark S&P 500 index closed at a record high on Thursday despite an uneven start to September, which has been the worst month for stocks on average over the past 35 years. Stocks were pulling back on Friday after the monthly US employment report showed job growth weakened in August."September has been known to see a wearing down of the sentiment picture," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. At the same time, he said, "stocks aren't pricing in a lot of risks right now. They look fully valued."The monthly US consumer price index on Thursday highlights next week's economic releases, with investors focused on signals from the inflation data about the prospects for interest rate cuts and the fallout from tariffs on prices. Following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks late last month that flagged rising risks to employment, markets have been widely expecting the central bank to lower rates for the first time in nine months at its September 16-17 meeting.Investors bet on even more accelerated easing after the weak jobs report.Fed Funds futures were baking in a 90% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the meeting, and a roughly 10% chance of a heftier half-percentage point cut, LSEG data as of Friday afternoon showed.Only a CPI number that comes in "egregiously higher" than estimates could dent assumptions of imminent monetary policy easing, said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth.About 70 basis points of easing, or nearly three standard cuts, are projected by December, according to the futures data.Recently, "the prospect of the Fed cutting has been the overwhelming factor driving equity sentiment to be more positive," Miskin said. "And so if that reverses, then it could be problematic for equities."Along with CPI, a Wednesday report on producer prices could also reveal impacts from import tariffs. Last month's PPI data showed US producer prices increased by the most in three years in July as the costs of goods and services surged. Tariffs and their economic implications were the main risk facing markets earlier this year, but other factors such as questions over Fed independence and caution about the artificial intelligence trade have been more prominent recently.The issue returned to the fore this week after a US appeals court ruled that most of President Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal. While the Trump administration has asked the US Supreme Court to hear a bid to preserve the sweeping tariffs, the ruling injected fresh uncertainty for markets."It felt as though the fog of trade war was clearing, and now we're just back into the thick of it," Hogan said. "And that doesn't help corporate America make decisions, consumers make decisions, and investors make decisions."The potential of lost tariff revenue exacerbating the US fiscal deficit was one factor investors said may have driven long-dated US government debt yields sharply higher at the start of the week, moves that also followed big jumps in yields in the UK and other regions. While long-dated yields globally have since calmed, their spikes were cited as contributing to stock weakness initially during the week.The 30-year US Treasury yield this week hit 5% for the first time in over a month. That yield level has been "problematic" for risk appetite over the past few years, said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial. The long-bond yield was last around 4.78%, with yields falling broadly on Friday after the jobs data.The S&P 500 was up about 10% so far in 2025, helped recently by a solid second-quarter earnings season. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio climbed to 22.4 times, based on earnings estimates for the next 12 months, a valuation well above its long-term average of 15.9, according to LSEG Datastream."Investors face ongoing threats from trade and tariff unknowns as well as potential economic releases that could ultimately challenge elevated stock valuations," Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, wrote in a commentary."That said, investors have been navigating those dynamics for months, and stocks have continued to grind higher."

Turkiye’s central bank Governor Fatih Karahan struck an optimistic note on the inflation outlook following worse-than-expected data and market turmoil, suggesting investors may have been too hasty in reducing their forecasts for interest-rate cuts.An unexpected court order against the main opposition party on Tuesday which triggered a broad selloff in Turkish assets was followed by the release of higher-than-expected August inflation data the next morning. The combination had Wall Street banks swiftly redrawing their predictions for a new rate-cutting cycle, anticipating a less severe reduction when policymakers meet on September 11.But in an interview with Bloomberg News on Thursday, Karahan said the breakdown of August’s inflation numbers and second-quarter growth showed that demand-driven price pressures are easing.“Though headline GDP growth was higher than forecasts, the components of the GDP data showed that demand conditions continue to support disinflation,” he said in Istanbul. While overall quarterly growth was an above-forecast 1.6%, Karahan highlighted that private consumption has come in negative for two consecutive quarters.Similarly, while August inflation which slowed to 33% from 33.5% the prior month was above expectations, Karahan emphasised the main indicators of the underlying trend offered “a healthier assessment.” Those show that price rises are continuing to ease, he said, while adding that the central bank is keeping a close eye on the impact of increases in rent and education on inflation expectations.The BIST-100 Index and banking stocks were slightly up on Friday morning at 10.22am. The lira was trading 0.2% lower against the US dollar at 41.25.The central bank reduced rates by more than anticipated in July, to 43% from 46%, the first cut in four months, and signalled at the time that more was to come.But a court order to remove the Istanbul administration of Turkiye’s main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, unnerved investors. That ruling which precedes a number of other legal decisions related to the opposition coincided with the disappointing economic reports, causing Wall Street banks to predict a slower pace of interest-rate cuts.Asked whether the central bank’s views on inflation are influenced by the overall uncertainty, Karahan said: “We haven’t allowed for the deterioration of inflation expectations nor for demand to disrupt disinflation and we won’t allow it.” “We want to preserve the gains we’ve made in reserves, the current-account balance and other important areas like dollarisation,” he added.The central bank last month fine-tuned its guidance for inflation, maintaining a year-end target of 24% while at the same time issuing a projection of where it anticipates the figure to ultimately end up.That’s likely to be in the range of 25% to 29%, the bank said.The official targets will be used to “determine the tightness of monetary policy in the current and near-term period,” Karahan said.“Because monetary mechanism takes some time, in the short run estimates could diverge from the interim targets,” he said. “There might be times when monetary policy can’t immediately react. For example, these could include factors that fall outside the relative sphere of influence of monetary policy, developments that have emerged very recently relative to the control horizon, and situations where the impact on the inflation outlook is uncertain.”

Turkish inflation came in higher than expected in August, at nearly 33% annually and more than 2% on a monthly basis, readings that are likely to slow the central bank's plans to cut interest rates as it also weighs stronger economic growth.Annual consumer price inflation stood at 32.95% last month, official data showed on Wednesday, above a Reuters poll estimate of 32.6%. It was up 2.04% on a monthly basis.In further evidence that consumer demand remains strong despite the effects of prolonged monetary tightening, separate data on Monday had shown that Turkiye's economy grew by 4.8% in the second quarter, above expectations.The data flurry comes at a jittery time for investors in Turkiye. A court on Tuesday ousted the Istanbul provincial head of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), dealing a fresh judicial blow to opponents of President Tayyip Erdogan and triggering sharp falls in Turkish share and bond markets.According to a poll conducted in July, economists had expected the central bank to cut its policy rate to 36% by year-end, or some 700 basis points from the current 43%. However the latest inflation and GDP data could cause it to slow the pace of the easing, analysts said."Looking ahead to the central bank's September 11 meeting, we expect the market's current consensus for a 300bps rate cut to moderate towards 200-250bps," Oyak Securities said in a note to clients on Wednesday.In July, the central bank cut the policy rate by 300 basis points, relaunching an easing cycle paused in March, and it promised to use all policy tools in the event of a significant and persistent deterioration in inflation."After Wednesday's GDP growth data and today's inflation data, the probability of the central bank cutting rates by 300 basis points in September has become very low," Hakan Kara, a former central bank chief economist now on the faculty at Bilkent University in Ankara, said on X.The monthly inflation reading for August of 2.04% was affected by higher food, education, and housing prices, as well as the continued impact of a mid-year update of taxes on tobacco and fuel items.In July, CPI inflation stood at 33.52% on an annual basis, while the monthly reading was 2.06%.In the Reuters poll, the monthly inflation rate for August had been expected to come in at 1.8%.The domestic producer price index rose 2.48% month-on-month in August for an annual rise of 25.16%, the data showed.Inflation is seen slowing to 30% at the end of this year according to the poll median, higher than the central bank forecast range of 25%-29%.

European stocks edged lower on Friday as investors awaited key eurozone indicators and a US inflation report for signals on the timing of potential US interest rate cuts.The pan-european stock index slipped 0.2% to 552.41 points, putting it on track for its first weekly loss in a month.Markets broadly expect the US Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in September, with traders closely monitoring upcoming economic data for confirmation of that outlook.

Market EyeAhead of the US key inflation data in the US, the Qatar Stock Exchange listed, like other major Gulf bourses, saw severe selling pressure, leading to a 112-point plunge in its index and about QR7bn in capitalisation.The foreign institutions were seen increasingly net profit takers as the 20-stock Qatar Index shed 0.99% to 11,226.84 points, although it touched an intraday high of 11,367 points.The industrials, insurance and banking counters witnessed higher than average selling pressure in the main market, whose year-to-date gains truncated further to 6.2%.The Gulf institutions turned bearish in the main bourse, whose capitalisation eroded QR6.93bn or 1.02 to QR670.75bn, mainly on large and small cap segments.The domestic institutions’ substantially weakened net buying had its influence on the main market, which saw as many as 2,966 exchange traded funds (sponsored by AlRayan Bank and Doha Bank) valued at QR0.02mn trade across eight deals.However, the local retail investors were seen net buyers in the main bourse, whose trade turnover and volumes were on the increase.The Islamic index was seen declining slower than the other indices of the main market, which saw no trading of treasury bills.The Arab individual investors turned bullish in the main bourse, which saw no trading of sovereign bonds.The Total Return Index shed 0.99% and the All Share Index by 1.06% and the All Islamic Index by 0.59% in the main market.The industrials sector index tanked 1.61%, insurance (1.26%), banks and financial services (1.25%), transport (0.27%) and consumer goods and services (0.24%); while telecom gained 0.25% and real estate 0.12%.About 71% of the traded constituents were in the red with major losers in the main market being Meeza, Industries Qatar, QNB, Qatar Insurance, Qatar Electricity and Water, Qatar Islamic Bank, Doha Bank, AlRayan Bank, Gulf International Services, QLM, Nakilat and Gulf Warehousing.Nevertheless, Ezdan, Medicare Group, Milaha, Vodafone Qatar, Inma Holding and Mazaya Qatar were among the gainers in the main bourse.In the venture market, Techno Q saw its shares appreciate in value.The foreign institutions’ net profit booking increased drastically to QR50.95mn compared to QR31.06mn the previous day.The Gulf institutions turned net sellers to the tune of QR1.6mn against net buyers of QR8.3mn on August 27.The domestic institutions’ net buying decreased substantially to QR18.76mn compared to QR31.4mn on Wednesday.The foreign individual investors’ net buying eased marginally to QR1.18mn against QR1.86mn the previous day.However, the Qatar individuals were net buyers to the extent of QR29.75mn compared with net sellers of QR6.35mn on August 27.The Arab retail investors turned net buyers to the tune of QR2.7mn against net sellers of QR3.38mn on Wednesday.The Gulf individuals were net buyers to the extent of QR0.18mn compared with net sellers of QR0.59mn the previous day.The Arab institutions had no major net exposure against net profit takers to the tune of QR0.18mn on August 27.The main market saw a 2% jump in trade volumes to 143.38mn shares, 4% in value to QR359.1mn and 5% in deals to 18,014.In the venture market, a total of 1.63mn equities valued at QR4.55mn changed hands across 275 transactions.