The recent coup in Niger will diminish France’s influence in the Sahel region, particularly after the militaries in Mali and Burkina Faso similarly seized power, analysts and experts in international relations said.Speaking to the Qatar News Agency (QNA), they said the latest developments in West Africa should push Paris to review its foreign policy in the region and plan a new strategy.QNA’s meetings with experts focused on the future of the 1,500-personnel French base in Niger, the destiny of the new strategy announced by President Emmanuel Macron in July last year, and the possible ECOWAS bloc military efforts to restore constitutional order in Niger.French-US commentator Gerald Olivier warned that that Paris would lose a strategic country and central ally in the Sahel region, forcing its influence to diminish.He said that if France really wants to preserve its interests and influence in the Sahel region and in Africa in general amid these rapid changes, it should consider reviewing its African policy and plan a new strategy, regardless of the final results of this coup.Olivier noted that France was a victim of the rising wave of populism in African countries fuelled by social media.While the failure in the Sahel region was caused by the existing African regimes there and not France, he said that Paris did not intervene in the Sahel region to fix economic problems or low growth rates.Olivier stressed that while France has been present in the Sahel region for decades, with geopolitical conditions having developed and changed a lot, France alone does not have the military or financial capabilities to completely eliminate the armed organisations.He warned that Macron’s new strategy, which placed Niger as a focal point for the French forces to confront armed organisations, will inevitably fail given that France failed to anticipate the changes that occurred in Niger and the rest of West Africa countries.Geneva-based Hosni Obaidi, head of the Institute of Strategic Studies and Research in the Arab world and North Africa, said that the events currently taking place in Niger, in addition to the end of Operation Barkhane as well as the withdrawal of French forces from Mali and Burkina Faso, reveal a rupture in French policy in the Sahel region and in Africa.He noted that there is a major shift in French policy, adding that this change and erosion in the policy of the French influence in Africa is not new, but rather the result of decades-old accumulations.Obaidi said that the accelerating international events and the emergence of new forces in the region that compete with the French and traditional Western powers, as well as the significant change in the ruling elites in many African countries – especially in the Sahel region, are the real reasons for this major shift in French policy in Africa.He added that successive French governments have not been able to renew, revive or adapt their policy in a way that is compatible with the new African situation.Obaidi indicated that Niger represents a setback on two levels for France: the first of which is because Niger was the backbone of the new policy that Macron wants to pursue in the Sahel region, especially after leaving Mali and Burkina Faso.The second is France’s failure to anticipate events in Niger.Obaidi stressed that France’s failed foreign policy in Africa is a collective failure that dates back to decades.Emmanuel Dupuy, president of the Institute for European Perspective and Security Studies (IPSE) and former political adviser to the French forces in Afghanistan, told QNA that France has lost an important and central ally in Niger.He noted that this military coup would have an impact on the strategic political aspect regarding the French presence and influence in the Sahel region, especially following France’s exit from Mali and Burkina Faso.Dupuy added that the repositioning of the French military forces should be done in a secret manner.The number and size of military bases should be reduced and the soldiers should be divided into small groups, in addition to focusing on the special forces that can move quickly and in a hidden manner similar to the method France is pursuing in Benin, he said.Dupuy pointed out that there are 1,500 French soldiers and 1,200 US soldiers in Niger, as well as 350 Italian soldiers who are securing Niamey airport, and 200 German soldiers within the framework of the European force, noting that the future of the French forces is linked to the future of these forces combined.Other proposed scenarios include the agreement of the authorities in Niger to keep the French soldiers in their country and limit their mission and determine it according to certain conditions, he said.Dupuy did not rule out that the third scenario could be the fact that France began to think about relocating its soldiers to another African country.He pointed out that while the coup in Niger did have an effect on the geopolitical map in the Sahel region and Africa, there will be no major security or strategic repercussions for the region.He noted that Russia and China will not be involved in the game.On the contrary, Dupuy said, they are very disturbed by what happened, especially since they signed trade and defence partnership agreements with the detained Niger president.He added that threats of the ECOWAS group to use military force and intervene in Niger will not be carried out, given that the countries of the group do not have the military or financial capabilities to engage in such a war.Dr Alain Safa, professor of economics and political geography at the University of Nice and President of the International French Economic Association (CEMAFY), highlighted that Niger ranks first in the world in uranium reserves and the seventh in its production, according to the World Nuclear Association, while France has strategic economic agreements with Niger, with more than 30 major French companies active in Niamey.The Orano company, which specialises in uranium production and is 90% owned by the French government, is the largest.The context here is that Paris relies on Niger for 35% of its uranium needs to help its nuclear plants generate 70% of the electricity.Therefore, Dr Safa said, the Niger situation has a major impact on France.He noted however that France also relies on various global markets in supplying uranium: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan rank first and second, followed by Niger in third place, and Australia as France’s fourth source of this strategic material.Although Niger today is only responsible for 5% of the global production of uranium, what is happening in Niger comes at a sensitive time in view of the conflict between Europe and Russia through the Russian-Ukrainian war, Dr Safa said, adding that if the crisis between Russia and Europe continues, this will lead to an increase in uranium prices in the coming years. – QNA