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Wednesday, May 15, 2024 | Daily Newspaper published by GPPC Doha, Qatar.
 Pratap John
Pratap John
Pratap John is Business Editor at Gulf Times. He has mainstream media experience of nearly 30 years in specialties such as energy, business & finance, banking, telecom and aviation, and covered many major events across the globe.
Gulf Times
Business
GCC takaful providers may pursue more M&A deals; sector’s growth prospects favourable: Moody’s

Moody’s expects takaful providers in the GCC region to pursue more merger and acquisition (M&A) deals after profit probably fell last year amid rising claims and costs.In a report, Moody’s Investor Service said it expects Islamic insurance (takaful) providers in GCC to accelerate technology investment and seek more merger and acquisition (M&A) deals to build the critical mass needed to improve efficiency and comply with more demanding regulation.“The sector’s growth prospects are favourable, reflecting the GCC region’s buoyant economy,” Moody’s noted.“Moody’s expects takaful providers in Gulf Co-operation Council countries to accelerate technology investment and seek more merger and acquisition (M&A) deals. This follows a likely decline in their combined net income for 2022 as higher prices only partly offset rising claims and costs.’’, said Mohammed Ali Londe, vice-president and senior analyst at Moody’s Investors Service."The sector’s growth prospects are favourable, reflecting the region’s buoyant economy. Increased demand for health and life insurance, the spread of compulsory insurance coverage, and still low insurance penetration indicate ample scope for expansion, though intense competition will constrain future price increases. Many small takaful players will pursue M&A deals to build the critical mass needed to improve efficiency and comply with more demanding regulations,” Londe noted.Increased demand for health and life insurance, the spread of compulsory coverage, and still low insurance penetration indicate ample scope for expansion, though intense competition will constrain price increases.Continued economic expansion, led by government efforts to diversify away from hydrocarbons, will create growth opportunities for the GCC insurance and takaful sector.The GCC region’s post-pandemic economic rebound, fuelled by rising oil prices and government investment in economic diversification, will drive faster premium growth.Rising prices were a supportive factor in the second half of 2022, particularly in retail lines, where there was steep discounting during the pandemic.However, Moody’s expects intense competition to constrain future price increases. Increased demand for health and life insurance, the spread of compulsory insurance coverage, and still low insurance penetration indicate ample scope for future growth.In 2022, inflationary claims increases and a return to normal claims volumes after a pandemic-related decline put GCC insurers' profitability under pressure.Other headwinds include the adverse impact of volatile financial markets on investment performance, amplified by insurers' high exposure to equities and real estate. Tighter regulations around governance, risk and capital management have added to compliance risks and costs, particularly for smaller insurers.“We expect many small takaful players to seek M&A opportunities to help them meet capital and other regulatory requirements, and to spread the cost of their digitalisation investments.“We expect GCC takaful operators to raise their prices in response to rising claims, broader insured coverage in medical and higher reinsurance costs, although the increase will be limited by intense competition,” Moody’s noted.The impact of environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations on the credit strength of most insurers in GCC countries is neutral to low, with good risk management and governance helping to offset their moderately negative exposure to environmental and social risks, it said.

Doha Insurance Group chairman Sheikh Nawaf Nasser bin Khaled al-Thani, directors, president Bassam Hussein and CEO Jassim al-Moftah at the company's AGM Tuesday.
Business
Doha Insurance Group gross written insurance premium jumps 24% to QR1.5bn in 2022: Sheikh Nawaf

Doha Insurance Group achieved “sustained and remarkable growth” in gross written insurance premiums amounting to QR1.5bn in 2022, which represents a 24% increase over 2021, company chairman Sheikh Nawaf Nasser bin Khaled al-Thani said Tuesday.Presenting the Doha Insurance Group board of directors’ report to company’s annual general meeting Sheikh Nawaf said the higher GWPs have been derived from the groups’ insurance business operations in Qatar and from its branch in Dubai.The AGM approved the proposal of the company’s Board of Directors to distribute to shareholders a cash dividend of 15% of the share par value, which translates into QR0.15 per share.Highlighting Doha Insurance performance in 2022, Sheikh Nawaf said the company achieved a net profit of QR102.1mn last year, up 39% on QR73.3mn registered in 2021.“Coupled with an unprecedented underwriting volume reflects the strength of the group’s technical foundations and its competitive advantage that encapsulate the group’s operational and financial success,” he said.Sheikh Nawaf said the group’s total assets amounted to QR3.3bn in 2022, which represents a growth rate of 13% compared to the previous year. This is the “highest recorded value” for the group’s total assets since its inception.Total shareholders’ equity amounted to QR1.157bn, while earnings per share amounted to QR0.20 in 2022.He said this year; Doha Insurance Group will apply the new accounting standard IFRS17 in its preparation of its financial statements, replacing the accounting standard IFRS4, and in compliance with the QCB instructions. The new accounting standard, which is an international standard, aims at providing an integrated accounting system that lays the foundation for the financial rotation of insurance companies’ accounts.Sheikh Nawaf noted that within the context of the new Health Insurance Law and in preparation for its implementation, the group has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding in partnership with a “distinguished” group of national insurance companies – Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance Company, Qatar General Insurance and Reinsurance Company and Qatar Islamic Insurance Company with GlobeMed Limited, a company that specialises in the administration and management of the health insurance business to acqwuire an 80% stake in GlobeMed, in equal shares of 20% for each company, after understanding the implementation mechanism of the new law and after reviewing insurance coverages limits, conditions and proposed pricing in this regard.In 2022, Doha Insurance Group entered into preliminary negotiations concerning a potential merger partnership deal with Al-Koot Insurance and Reinsurance Company, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gulf International Services.However, after entering into initial negotiations regarding the proposed deal, the negotiating parties “did not arrive at a common vision” that would have led to an initial agreement that achieves the interest of the shareholders of the two companies.This, he noted, resulted in the decision of the management of Doha Insurance Group and the Gulf International Services to halt these negotiations and to withdraw permanently from the proposed merger deal.Doha Insurance Group’s future plans include achieving further penetration and expansion in regional and international markets, Sheikh Nawaf said.“During the coming period, the group will seek to raise its global rating in line with growing positive development of its results,” he added.Doha Insurance Group president Bassam Hussein and CEO Jassim al-Moftah were among the top executives who were present at the AGM.

Gulf Times
Business
Qatar emerges as 'top' global logistics hub; logistics share of economy set to double in coming years: QNBFS

Qatar emerges as a top global logistics hub and contribution of logistics sector to the country's economy could more than double from 4.2% in 2022 to nearly 10% in coming years, QNB Financial Services has said in a report.In its latest ‘Qatar Equity Strategy Alert’ QNBFS said the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 has created platform for logistics sector growth and economic diversification.Real GDP growth of the country’s logistics sector was at an average of 5.9% from 2015-2019 before dropping by 34% in 2020 and has recovered with a growth of 10.9% in 2021.In nine months of 2022, the country’s logistics sector witnessed the highest growth of 26.7% among the prominent economic sectors.“The high growth in the sector can be attributed to the gigantic logistics requirements in hosting the hugely successful FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022. The highly successful global sporting event has created a solid platform for the both economic growth and diversification, with the logistics sector contributing to 4.2% of the overall economy for the nine months of 2022 growing from a 3.7% contribution to the economy in 2015,” QNBFS noted.According to QNBFS Qatar has emerged as a “global air cargo hub” on the back of Qatar Airways’ rapid expansion.In this area, Qatar climbed up the world rankings to 6th in 2021, from 17th in 2014 with over 2.58mn metric tonnes in international freight cargo moving through Doha’s Hamad International Airport.Qatar’s emergence and rapid growth trajectory as a global air cargo hub has been achieved through its incredible cargo tonnage increase in recent years.Air cargo tonnage has increased from 0.98mn tonnes in 2014 to over 2.58mn tonnes in 2021.Qatar had an air cargo growth of 20.7% in 2021 and an average growth of 15.5% from 2014-2021.GWC, the official logistics provider for the most successful edition of the FIFA World Cup, holds strong potential as logistics needs rise with Qatar’s increasing air cargo growth, QNBFS noted.The state budget overall expenditures for 2023 showed a slight decline in spending by 2.6% to QR199.0bn.The main reason behind this drop was a budgeted cut by 13.6% in allocations for major projects, resulting from the completion of many planned infrastructure and strategic projects, including the expansion of the Hamad International Airport before the start of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022.For the nine months of 2022 actual government spending increased by 13.3% compared to the same period in 2021, QNBFS noted."The sky is the limit for a geographically prime-located country on a quest to become the preferred global air and maritime logistics hub, linking the east and the west," QNBFS said.Qatar is pursuing a dual strategy that has potential spin-offs on various QSE-listed logistics players.First, anchored by Qatar Airways – world's best airline (as ranked by Skytrax for an unprecedented 7th time in 2022) and largest air cargo carrier in the world, with a rapidly expanding cargo tonnage capacity enabled by its ballooning fleet size and focused expansion on the cargo business – Qatar has emerged as a global giant in air cargo transportation.Now ranked 6th globally in the air cargo rankings, the country’s emergence has been years in the making, with its air cargo volume rising 2.6 times between 2014 and 2021.All this, despite facing trade route restrictions and embargoes during the blockade that Qatar managed to outmanoeuvre, even flying in 4,000 cows to speedily achieve dairy self-sufficiency. Second, going forward Qatar’s position as a leading global LNG producer and shipper will be cemented by its ongoing LNG expansion mega-project.“These enviable milestones would not have been possible without a visionary government policy to invest in developing global-scale logistics infrastructure as part of its economic diversification strategy.“Dividends are beginning to show and during the first nine months of 2022 the logistics sector saw a whopping 26.7% real GDP growth, partly driven by the colossal requirements of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, witnessing the highest growth among other prominent sectors of the economy,” QNBF said.In the coming years, contribution of the logistics sector to the economy could more than double from 4.2% in 2022 to nearly 10% as it outpaces growth of the overall economy, QNBFS added.

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Business
Qatar seen ‘well positioned’ to leverage expertise in sporting event management

Qatar is well positioned to leverage its expertise in sporting event management, PwC said in its ‘Qatar Economy Watch’ report.Although the World Cup was by far the biggest event that Qatar has hosted, the country already has substantial experience including the Asian Games in 2006 and the first F1 Qatar Grand Prix in 2021, which is becoming an annual event.Other established annual events include the ExxonMobil Qatar Open Tennis Tournament, Qatar Masters Golf Tournament and the Qatar MotoGP Grand Prix.More mega-events will follow, including the 2023 AFC Asian Cup, the 2024 World Aquatics and the 2030 Asian Games.Qatar has also bid in the past to host the Olympics and is reconsidering it for 2036, with a successful FIFA World Cup under its belt.Qatar’s planning for the FIFA World Cup focused heavily on developing a long-lasting legacy, PwC noted.Stadium 974, for example, is based on a modular design that features stacks of shipping containers and the plan is to donate it to support sports in another country.Other stadiums such as Al Bayt, Ahmed Bin Ali, Al Janoub and Al Thumama will be reconfigured to reduce their capacities to between 20,000 and 25,000 seats, in line with domestic needs, freeing up around 170,000 seats to be donated.The infrastructure that has been built, including these stadia will be used to host future mega events.Meanwhile, Lusail Stadium will be reconfigured into a community space for schools and will house a number of sports facilities, health clinics and shops.“While Qatar will continue to focus on sports as a national priority and a core pillar of the country’s global brand, it should explore the potential of hosting global nonsporting mega-events such as music festivals, political and economic summits, and global expositions to encourage tourism and utilise its world-class facilities,” PwC said.Existing events such as the Doha Forum and the Geneva Motor Show serve as great examples for Qatar to continue to build on.In preparation for the FIFA World Cup, Qatar made significant leaps towards improving its transportation infrastructure.This included the development of the three-line, 37-stop Metro along with light rail networks in Msheireb, Lusail and Education City in line with the country’s commitment to sustainability.Looking ahead, the report noted, there are plans announced to build an additional Metro line and several new stations by 2026, as well as three additional lines for the Lusail Tram.

A cabin attendant carries bags of trash as she conducts her cleaning duties in the cabin of a Japan Airlines airplane at Haneda Airport in Tokyo (file). The passenger cabin is seen as a highly visible element of aviation industry’s environmental performance. The airline industry has been always the subject of criticism for inadequate cabin waste recycling, which threatens the sector’s environmental reputation.
Business
Sustainable cabin hinges on airlines' waste recycling, disposal initiatives

The passenger cabin is seen as a highly visible element of aviation industry’s environmental performance. The packaging used and the waste collected are indicative of an airline’s.text-box { float:left; width:250px; padding:1px; border:1pt white; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 15px; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-left: 20px;}@media only screen and (max-width: 767px) {.text-box {width: 30%;}}**media[10789]**commitment to sustainable initiatives.The airline industry has been always the subject of criticism for inadequate cabin waste recycling, which threatens the sector’s environmental reputation.Cabin waste is made up of two main streams: Cleaning waste and catering (galley) waste.The average passenger generates approximately 1.43kg of waste per flight, equating to nearly 6mn tonnes of waste per year once traffic fully recovers in 2024, according to the International Air Transport Association.Approximately 20% of this is untouched food and drink. That alone is worth about $4bn, money that is effectively incinerated and that could be allocated to environmental initiatives.Of course, the fact that this food and drink is sealed and untouched also suggests it could be used — perhaps for humanitarian efforts.Or, if biotreated, it could be a critical energy source. Not so. International Catering Waste (ICW) rules effectively prevent reuse, donation, recycling and biotreatment.In 2019, IATA’s 'cabin waste handbook' identified some 23 actions that could improve an airline’s cabin waste performance, including meal selection at time of check-in. Even so, it is clear that smarter regulation would alleviate much of the problem.Airline meals are produced using Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) food safety procedures, initially designed by Nasa for the Apollo space programme.“And yet meals produced to such standards are deemed a biohazardous waste when discarded by a passenger, requiring specialist handling and treatment,” points out Jon Godson, IATA’s assistant director (Sustainability).An IATA-commissioned risk report shed further light on the matter. It indicated that for a pig to receive an infective dose of the foot and mouth virus — ICW’s main concern — it needs to ingest a minimum of 125 litres of contaminated milk.That represents 10,416 airline creamer pots, which in any case are heat treated and sealed. It is also worth noting that the last foot and mouth outbreak in the United States was in 1929 and in Canada it was 1952.Rather, the primary risk for animal disease transfer from air transport was from smuggled meat products. A study from Paris Charles de Gaulle airport suggests more than 3,200 tonnes of meat and fish were being smuggled every year, including wild-caught bushmeat from Africa.Similarly, a study in Switzerland estimated that over 1,000 tonnes of meat was being smuggled through Geneva and Zurich airports each year.“We need regulators to focus on real and not perceived risk,” says Godson.To demonstrate a potential way forward, IATA said it will work with six airlines on a TransAltantic reuse and recycling trial in 2023. The aim is to show aviation’s ability to recycle uncontaminated waste.IATA will also continue to lobby for changes in the regulation and, in fact, held 12 meetings with animal health authorities in 2022 alone. It has formed a European Airline ICW Working Group that published a Joint Statement for policy makers.In October 2022, this statement prompted six Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) to raise questions about ICW rules."These questions have so far been downplayed with the well-worn answer of “international catering waste represents a high risk”. Yet, the European Commission has admitted that it has not performed a formal risk assessment on ICW," IATA noted.Airlines have been placed in an invidious position. They face criticism for not contributing to the circular economy based on restrictions introduced over 20 years ago that were not risk-based. Regulators seen unwilling or unable to listen.A risk-based approach to animal health control could lead to a shift in focus to that addresses the actual and not perceived risks.“We will continue to engage with policy makers in Europe and beyond in the hope that fact will eventually outweigh fiction,” concludes Godson.“Existing regulations reduce our ability to build a circular economy and contribute to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target to cut global food waste in half by 2030. Airlines will work collaboratively with regulators to ensure that aviation makes a positive contribution to this SDG target,” Godson noted.Clearly, a growing challenge for airlines is the sustainable management of millions of tonnes of waste generated within the cabin. Cabin waste is costing airlines money, consuming valuable resources, and undermining the sector’s credibility on sustainable operations.With a huge growth in passenger numbers expected in the coming decade, the volume of cabin waste could more than double in the next 10 years!This certainly calls for urgent action towards proper cabin waste recycling across the global airline industry.

Gulf Times
Business
Qatar’s inflation expected to moderate substantially in 2023 on drop in rents, recreation expenses

Qatar’s inflation is expected to moderate substantially on anticipated rent fall and a drop in recreation expenses, PwC said in a report.Qatar has not been immune to global inflationary pressures and domestic factors also contributed in 2022 with the run-up to the World Cup. Inflation peaked at 6% in September 2022 when it was the highest in the GCC, although this is still well below the levels seen in the US and Europe, easing to 5% in October.The anticipated increase in demand for accommodation for people attending the World Cup understandably put pressure on rents, which grew by 11.5% y/y in October 2022, the most since 2008, PwC said in ‘Qatar Economy Watch’.However, this came after a long period of falling rents, including during the pandemic, and in fact they only returned to early 2019 levels.In any case, it is expected that rents will likely ease once again this year, given the anticipated population decline; the fact that the real estate market remains muted – prices were actually down 3.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September 2022 according to QCB’s index – supports a moderation in rents.By contrast, the last time rent inflation was high, at 9% in September 2014, real estate prices were rising by 42% y-o-y. While some tenants have had to sign lease agreements for two-year periods, analysis suggests that rent prices will return to 2020 levels during the year 2023.The major contributor to inflation in 2022 was, perhaps surprisingly, not rents but recreation, a component of the consumer price index (CPI) which is heavily driven by air travel.It also received a local boost due to the World Cup on top of the overall post-pandemic recovery in air travel.Recreation prices were up by 31% y/y on average in January-October 2022, having previously declined by 16% in 2020, reaching record levels.Recreation has an 11% weight in Qatar’s CPI, more than triple the average for the rest of the GCC and accounted for more than half of inflation in October.Food and transport, which have been the major drivers of inflation globally, have had little impact in Qatar because of subsidies and the disinflationary impact of a strong riyal on imported prices.Excluding both recreation and rents, inflation in Qatar in October 2022 would have been close to zero.This suggests that in 2023, if these components stop increasing, or even fall, then overall inflation in Qatar should be quite low, even potentially negative.The IMF forecasts that inflation will average just 2.1% in 2023-27.Qatar has consistently topped rankings related to the cost of living, which affects its attractiveness as a destination for both FDI and skilled labour, and so a moderation in inflation, contrary to most countries, should help boost competitiveness. Efforts to lower the cost of living and doing business are also expected to feature in the government’s economic agenda for 2023 and beyond, PwC noted.

This file photo taken on February 6, 2017 shows the Ras Laffan Industrial City.
Qatar
Two major Qatari ventures among major GCC chemical projects expected to start-up in five years: GPCA

Ras Laffan Petrochemicals Complex and Qafco Ammonia 7 project are among the major chemical projects expected to start-up in the GCC over the next five years, GPCA said in its latest report.A QatarEnergy-Chevron Phillips Chemical joint venture, the Ras Laffan Petrochemicals Complex with a capacity to produce 2.1mn tonnes per year of ethylene, is slated for completion in 2026.Qafco's Ammonia 7 project will have the capacity to produce 1.2mn tonnes per year of blue ammonia and is slated for completion in 2026, Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association noted.GCC’s chemical industry has planned or committed investments worth $61bn until 2025 despite “considerable reduction” in global investment.GCC chemical producers continued to invest in environmentally responsible projects as part of their ESG agenda, mainly in energy efficiency and air pollution in 2021, Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA) said.The GCC's share in global chemical revenue has increased to 2.4% in 2021, almost reaching the historical average.However, the GCC chemical industry’s capital investments reduced by more than half to $4bn in 2021 as companies are rationalising their investments post-pandemic, putting many projects on hold, and prioritising recovery, while others are coming close to completion.GPCA said strong demand for both commodity and specialty chemicals had kept prices robust throughout 2022 as well.Although the GCC chemical industry is export-oriented, exporting 68.8mn tonnes in 2021, the region imported 20mn tonnes resulting in a positive trade balance of 48.6mn, up by 12% Y-o-Y.China and India remain the top destinations for GCC chemical exports, accounting for 26% and 14%, respectively, of total exports. Petrochemicals and polymers dominate GCC chemical exports, while value added chemicals are the top imported chemicals into the region.The overall chemical production in the GCC grew further by 2.7% in 2021, recording a 154.1mn tonnes capacity, driven by the rebound in demand for goods around the world, GPCA noted.The regional historical growth is led by inorganic chemicals, and performance polymers and rubbers with a nine-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 45.1% and 17.8%, respectively. The positive overall capacity growth momentum has been forecast to moderate slightly to 2.5% in 2022.Global chemical output is recovering unevenly across geographies with an overall percentage of 6.1% in 2021. The projected growth is headed by Asia at 7.6%, followed by Europe and South America at both 6% and 4.6%, respectively.“It is estimated to grow by a lower rate of 2% and 2.9% in 2022 and 2023 respectively, taking into consideration the ongoing lockdowns in China, as well as direct and indirect supply chain disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” GPCA noted.

Passengers look at a departure information board inside London Heathrow airport's Terminal 2 (file). Global airlines are expected to return to operating profitability in the last quarter of 2023, after three consecutive years of losses as passenger demand is set to rapidly recover to pre-pandemic levels on most routes this year.
Business
Airline industry looks to record ‘first industry profit’ since 2019; complete and sustainable recovery seen in 2023

.text-box { float:left; width:250px; padding:1px; border:1pt white; margin-top: 10px; margin-right: 15px; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-left: 20px;}@media only screen and (max-width: 767px) {.text-box {width: 30%;}}**media[9950]**Global airlines are expected to return to operating profitability in the last quarter of 2023, after three consecutive years of losses as passenger demand is set to rapidly recover to pre-pandemic levels on most routes this year.Air passenger demand in 2023 will rapidly recover to pre-pandemic levels on most routes by the first quarter and that growth of around 3% on 2019 figures will be achieved by year-end, according to the International Civil Aviation Organisation.Air passenger demand in 2024 is expected to be stronger, at around 4% higher than 2019. In terms of Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), this translates to a growth of 0.7% over the 2019-2024 period, ICAO noted in a recent forecast.This forecasted recovery and growth for the world of civil aviation comes with the caveat that risks affecting international air transport do not escalate from current levels.“Assuring the safe, secure, and sustainable recovery of air services will be key to restoring aviation’s ability to act as a catalyst for sustainable development at the local, national and global levels, and will consequently be vital to countries’ recovery from the broader impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic,” remarked ICAO Council president Salvatore Sciacchitano.“The air passenger forecasts ICAO is announcing build on the strong momentum toward recovery in 2022, as previously assessed by ICAO statistical analysis,” remarked ICAO secretary-general Juan Carlos Salazar. “Through ICAO, governments have reached agreements on goals towards zero accident fatalities by 2030 and zero carbon emissions by 2050 goals, and these will continue to play key roles in both guiding continued progress and in prioritising ICAO’s implementation support initiatives.”The number of air passengers carried in 2022 increased by an estimated 47% compared to 2021, while revenue passenger kilometres (RPK’s) increased by around 70% over the same period, due mainly to the rapid recovery of most international routes, ICAO noted.In terms of airlines’ annual passenger revenues, keeping yield and exchange rates at 2019 levels, ICAO observed growth of an estimated 50% from 2021 to 2022.In line with earlier ICAO predictions, the strong recovery in air passenger demand has resulted in 2022 passenger numbers reaching an estimated 74% of pre-pandemic levels, while passenger revenues are estimated to have reached around 68% of 2019 levels.The number of passenger aircraft in service in 2022 mirrors the overall traffic recovery, with current estimates suggesting 75% of pre-pandemic levels.In 2022, aircraft orders and deliveries by major manufacturers Airbus and Boeing grew by 53% for orders and 20% for deliveries, compared to the previous year. The number of orders in 2022 exceeded that seen since 2019, indicating the recovery of aircraft demand.Current estimates for air cargo in 2022 reflect 2021 levels, while still showing marginal growth compared to the pre-pandemic level.The pace of growth for air cargo is however expected to be lower in 2023, given the slowing global economic growth, although long-term air cargo growth remains in line with previously estimated trend indicating strong long term growth.The International Air Transport Association (IATA) also expects a return to profitability for the global airline industry in 2023 as airlines continue to cut losses stemming from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic to their business in 2022.In 2023, airlines are expected to post a small net profit of $4.7bn — a 0.6% net profit margin. It is the first profit since 2019 when industry net profits were $26.4bn (3.1% net profit margin).In 2022, airline net losses were expected to be $6.9bn (an improvement on the $9.7bn loss for 2022 in IATA’s June outlook). This is significantly better than losses of $42bn and $137.7bn that were realised in 2021 and 2020 respectively.“Resilience has been the hallmark for airlines in the Covid-19 crisis,” noted Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.“As we look to 2023, the financial recovery will take shape with a first industry profit since 2019. That is a great achievement considering the scale of the financial and economic damage caused by government imposed pandemic restrictions. But a $4.7bn profit on industry revenues of $779bn also illustrates that there is much more ground to cover to put the global industry on a solid financial footing.“Many airlines are sufficiently profitable to attract the capital needed to drive the industry forward as it decarbonises. But many others are struggling for a variety of reasons. These include onerous regulation, high costs, inconsistent government policies, inefficient infrastructure and a value chain where the rewards of connecting the world are not equitably distributed,” Walsh said.As discussed earlier, the commercial aviation industry certainly finds itself at a critical inflection point: ready to take off after several years of disruption and uncertainty, but still grappling with fundamental issues that threaten its long-term growth and success.Pilot shortages, supply chain issues and infrastructure investment among other issues will continue to have a major impact on the industry this year and in the medium-term.

Gulf Times
Business
SelectUSA to highlight diverse US investment opportunities for Qatar businesses: Davis

The diversity of investment opportunities that exist across the entire United States will be highlighted at SelectUSA Investment Summit that will be held in Washington, DC from May 1 to 4, US ambassador to Qatar, Timmy T Davis said.“We are recruiting companies to join the Qatar business delegation to the 2023 SelectUSA Investment Summit,” Davis told Gulf Times in an exclusive interview.The SelectUSA Investment Summit promotes the United States as the world’s premier investment destination and connects qualified foreign firms with US economic development organisations to facilitate business investment and job creation across over 50 US states and territories.“I have spoken to Qatari Businessmen Association as well as Qatari Businesswomen Association about the opportunities that Qatar-based companies looking to grow globally can get in the United States, which is the world’s premier investment destination and largest consumer market,” ambassador Davis said.“At the SelectUSA Investment Summit, Qatar-based companies and government officials can make connections and gather information needed to start the process of establishing and growing their businesses and investments in the United States. I am proud to lead this delegation to signal a new level of the US-Qatar business relationship, and to highlight the diversity of investment opportunities that exist across the entire United States,” ambassador Davis said in a statement earlier.According to the US Embassy in Qatar, the SelectUSA Investment Summit has historically provided returns for Qatar-based business investors.Past investment summit participants have announced expansion of their current operations to new states, which creates more jobs and fosters larger investment opportunities.The SelectUSA Investment Summit facilitates their investment journey by bringing together relevant officials, regulators, and economic development facilitators from every US state.The US Embassy in Doha is strategically aligning future, two-way investment opportunities following the goals outlined in the Qatar National Vision 2030.

US ambassador Timmy T Davis, in conversation with Gulf Times. PICTURE: Shaji Kayamkulam
Qatar
US relationship with Qatar built on shared optimism for future: envoy

**media[9839]**The United States’ friendship with Qatar is not built of boundaries, but one that’s based on shared optimism for the future, noted US ambassador Timmy T Davis in an exclusive interview with Gulf Times.“We have so many areas of common interest...be it global security, humanitarian assistance or education. We like to get together formally once a year to have a grand conversation...it is the kind of conversation you have with friends,” the ambassador said, referring to the forthcoming session as part of the “5th Strategic Dialogue” between the two countries that will be held in Doha on February 20-21.The envoy said top officials from both the countries are expected for the session.The 5th Qatar-US Strategic Dialogue session was kicked off in November last year, co-chaired by HE the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Mohamed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, and US Secretary of State Antony J Blinken.“We are delighted that Qatar is part of a conversation globally about countries that care about humanitarian assistance, dignity of the individual, or ensuring that victims of tragedies like flooding in Pakistan, earthquake in Turkiye and Syria, plight of those in Lebanon still suffering the effects of years of misfortune as they look for leadership, are cared for.“Our relationship with Qatar is not a relationship, where one of the partners is leading the other in a direction. Our relationship with Qatar is about two friends...two allies... identifying areas where we can do the most good and have the greatest impact.“For example, in North Africa, Qatar is a leader in thinking about how many of those governments’ progress and come together and take care of the people who live in those countries. About the future of our relationship, I am absolutely optimistic about it. I know Qatar’s goal is to be a good neighbour regionally...to be a good partner globally... and that they are as interested in doing it as friends with the United States as the US is doing it with our friends in Qatar.”The strategic dialogue aims to discuss ways to enhance co-operation between the two countries in various fields and develop exceptional bilateral relations that depend on common interests and mutual respect.Ambassador Davis noted there is a “steady stream of interest” in the US about Qatar.“They include Members of Congress and CEOs of Fortune 500 companies, besides members of the administration. This is a conversation that requires our best and holistic efforts. Qatar is moving towards National Vision 2030 that has laid an ambitious timeline and also an ambitious set of goals, many of which were met by the World Cup.”The ambassador emphasised that his country’s relationship with Qatar “will be an example not just for the region, but for the world.”“Our friendship with Qatar is not built of boundaries, but one that’s built on shared optimism for the future and also an outlook that we have in common to make the lives of our neighbours, friends, partners and people in need even better,” he noted.Ambassador Davis particularly highlighted Qatar’s timely assistance of $100mn to help the victims of Hurricane Katrina in the US Gulf Coast in August 2005.“If you talk to people in that area, they have known about them (Qatar) since 2005. Our people in the affected places are grateful to Qatar for everything that they did to help rebuild their lives. They have such a fondness for this country,” he added.

QNB Group directors and shareholders at the ordinary general assembly meeting in Doha Monday. PICTURE: Shaji Kayamkulam
Business
QNB Group recognises importance of sustainable finance, operations; delivers 'another year' of robust performance, growth: Al-Kuwari

Robust economic performance supported by elevated hydrocarbon prices, the recovery from Covid-19 pandemic and the impact of theFIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 “accelerated the execution of the Qatar National Vision 2030 and assisted in the transition towards a knowledge-based economy”, noted QNB Group Chairman HE Ali bin Ahmed al-Kuwari.He was addressing QNB shareholders at their ordinary general assembly meeting in Doha yesterday.Presenting a detailed report of QNB Group’s financial results for 2022 and sharing the business plan for 2023, al-Kuwari, also the Minister of Finance, said, “In line with our purpose, vision and strategy, QNB Group has delivered another year of robust performance and growth. This year was both exceptional and unforgettable for the State of Qatar.”The QNB chairman noted, “We acknowledge that sustainability is not a choice, but a strategic imperative that we embed into our business and operating model to make a positive contribution to the societies in which we present.“As a responsible business, we also recognise the importance of sustainable finance, sustainable operations and ‘beyond banking’ to support the communities in which we live and work. All three pillars are a crucial part of our purpose and support QNB’s objective of sustainable growth. We recognise that our strategy entails new components that require us to uplift our capabilities, also with regard to the way we work and interact.“Consequently, QNB aims to adopt a corporate culture and values that support the execution of the strategy. This year was marked by our efforts to continue to deliver upon our strategy while at the same time leveraging our brand and nurturing our relationships to further strengthen our business proposition.”Meanwhile, the general assembly of shareholders approved the QNB Group’s financial statements for 2022 and a recommendation by the Board of Directors to distribute a cash dividend of 60% of the nominal share value (which translates into QR0.60 per share).QNB Group delivered “record” financial results for the year that ended on December 31, 2022 with net profit reaching QR14.3bn, up 9% on 2021.Total assets increased by 9% to reach QR1,189bn.Replying to a query by a shareholder, al-Kuwari termed the QNB Group’s dividend payout as “fair”.“I strongly believe our dividend payout of 60% safeguards the interests of our shareholders and the company alike. And the dividend payout is higher than it was in the previous year,” al-Kuwari said.QNB Group is currently ranked as the “most valuable bank brand” in the Middle East and North Africa.

An LNG tanker is seen at the liquefied natural gas terminal owned by Chinese energy company ENN Group, in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China (file). Globally LNG demand will more than double from 372mn tonnes in 2021 to 850mn tonnes by 2050, fuelled by developing Asia’s strong demand, according to GECF.
Business
Qatar's North Field to power Mideast's 140 mtpy extra LNG liquefaction capacity until 2050: GECF

Powered by Qatar's North Field, the Middle East region will add 140mn tonnes per year LNG liquefaction capacity until 2050, according to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum.Globally, around 560mn tonnes per year of additional liquefaction capacity poised to launch from 2021 through 2050. This includes projects under construction and in all FEED (front-end engineering and development) stages, along with proposed, potential, stalled, and speculative ventures, GECF said in its latest ‘Global Gas Outlook 2050’.North America will supply the largest liquefaction gains, adding nearly 160 mtpy supported by unconventional gas.Global liquefaction capacity has grown from 270 mtpy in 2010 to 462 mtpy in 2021 and will more than double to about 1,032 mtpy by 2050.LNG demand expected to reach 850 mtpy by 2050 will utilise over 80% of liquefaction capacity, making markets well-supplied throughout the forecast periodQatar exported 77mn tonnes in 2021, GECF noted. QatarEnergy is working to increase its liquefaction capacity to 110 mtpy by 2026 and 126 mtpy by 2027.Both pipeline and LNG infrastructure will grow by 2050, the report noted. Liquefaction and regasification capacity will dominate spending through 2030, while expansion is set to slow after 2040.Export pipeline developments will endure through 2050, particularly in Eurasia and Europe.Globally LNG demand will more than double from 372mn tonnes in 2021 to 850mn tonnes by 2050, fuelled by developing Asia’s strong demand.The largest regasification capacity additions are expected to be in the Asia Pacific region.Global regasification capacity grew from 630 mtpy in 2010 to 993 mtpy in 2021. By 2050, capacity could surge to almost 1,840 mtpy, when operating, under construction proposed; mothballed and stalled projects are considered. This would be more than double expected LNG demand of around 850mn tonnes.Roughly 1,060 mtpy, or 60% of global capacity, will be located in the Asia Pacific region by 2050. Some 380 mtpy, or 20%, will be in Europe.GECF has revised the European capacity figure upward by 100%, with growth being implemented before 2030.Asian LNG demand remains subdued in the short term, also supported by an increase in domestic coal use where possible. High LNG spot import prices and a weakening global economic outlook dampen overall Asian gas demand growth, especially in price-sensitive markets.China and South Asia are at the greatest risk of demand downgrades.However, demand will rebound strongly when LNG supply availability increases and prices moderate around 2026.China, Southeast Asia, and South Asia account for all the medium to long-term growth upside, while Northeast Asian demand remains flat and declines after 2030. Southeast Asia and South Asia will be the fastest growing LNG markets, GECF noted.Several companies in China are building out some 50 mtpy of regasification capacity over the next two years, with total capacity reaching about 225 mtpy by 2050 – even as price sensitivity remains a key demand headwind.Japan will be home to 210 mtpy, while South Korea and India will follow with around 140 mtpy and 145 mtpy, respectively.European governments and utility companies have been quick to develop new regasification capacity but have yet to move meaningfully to long-term LNG contracts to secure supply.European LNG imports will increase from 81 mtpy (111 bcm) in 2021 to 135mn tonnes (186 bcm) by 2030, while Europe is set to develop 72 mtpy (100 bcm) of additional regas capacity by 2025.LNG deliveries to Europe in 2022 are expected to grow by over 40mn tons over 2021.However, location and availability of existing regas capacity, along with connectivity constraints within the European gas network, limit access options for many potential European buyers.As a result, GECF noted multiple countries have announced plans to install additional regas capacity via new or operating proposals. There are some 10 expansions planned at seven terminals between 2022 and 2030 totalling more than 30 bcm a year, it said.

The latest figures show almost 600,000 tourist arrivals in November last year, taking the total in January-November (2022) just shy of 2mn, more than triple the 2021 figure overall, thanks to a surge in arrivals from across the world.
Business
Qatar's estimated 3.3% non-oil sector growth this year to be stronger than in 2021: Oxford Economics

Qatar's non-oil sector growth will be stronger (3.3%) this year than in 2021 (2.7%) but weaker than the estimated 6% in 2022, Oxford Economics said in a report.The country’s tourism sector will benefit from international arrivals for major events, including the Asian Football Cup and Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix this year, Oxford Economics noted in its latest country report.Non-oil sector recovery will slow in 2023 after a strong 2022, it said. The non-oil sector is likely to have expanded by 6% in 2022, marking the fastest pace since 2015.However, this is weaker than the 7.6% pace Oxford Economics projected previously, given historical data revisions.Specifically, non-oil activities are now thought to have expanded by 6.5%, down from 9.7% earlier.The pace will slow to 3.3% in 2023 as momentum eases with the conclusion of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022.But this will still be stronger than the 2.7% expansion in 2021, which followed a decline of 4.7% in 2020.The latest figures show almost 600,000 tourist arrivals in November last year, taking the total in January-November (2022) just shy of 2mn, more than triple the 2021 figure overall, thanks to a surge in arrivals from across the world.Arrivals likely remained strong in December, with the total number of visitors possibly exceeding the 2.36mn projected in the Oxford Economics baseline.The report noted some $200bn has been spent on Qatar's infrastructure, partly related to the 2022 football World Cup, and partly to an expanding population and the country’s long-term strategy, National Vision 2030.In addition, Qatar is developing into a significant regional financial and educational centre.As a result of strong growth, GDP per capita (on a purchasing power parity basis) has also risen rapidly to make Qatar officially the wealthiest country in the world. It also has one of the most advanced and extensive welfare and free education systems in the GCC region.A heavy investment and diversification strategy has transformed the economy, driving a doubling of GDP and exports in five years and producing budget and current account surpluses until the downturn in the oil price in 2015.The country’s inflation rose to 5.9% in December last year, as the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 resulted in a larger-than-expected increase in the price of food and recreational and cultural services.This brought the 2022 average to 5%, the highest in the current series.“We expect inflationary pressures to subside, but with housing prices barely budging, we have lifted our 2023 projection by 0.7ppts, to 3.2%,” Oxford Economics noted.

“The oil market is in a state of extreme flux, with uncertainty high and volatility elevated. The threat of a global recession hangs over the outlook in 2023,” NBK noted.
Business
Oil price turn bullish on 'solid' Chinese rebound, Russian supply losses; $91 price seen in 2023: NBK

The oil price is turning bullish on solid Chinese rebound and Russian supply losses, the National Bank of Kuwait said in a report.NBK consensus estimates see oil prices ranging higher to average $91 per barrel in 2023, although oil prices traded sideways for most of January before retreating on global economic uncertainty.The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that China’s oil consumption is set to account for half of the 1.9mn barrels per day of global oil demand growth the agency forecasts this year, with demand for jet fuel (travel) and diesel (industry) greatly improved.It expects world oil demand to reach a record high of 101.7mn bpd in 2023. This comprises a drop in oil demand of 0.8mn bpd quarter-on-quarter in Q1,2023 amid a contraction in industrial activity in Europe, followed by a rise through the remainder of the year to reach 103.5mn bpd by Q4,2023.On the supply side, NBK noted the oil market is expected to tighten going forward, with the impact on oil market balances of the EU’s crude and refined products embargo on Russian oil supply greatest in the second half of the year.The tightness in the diesel market could be especially acute. However, there is considerable variation among energy houses on the extent of Russian crude output curtailments in 2023, especially with the G-7 crude price cap seemingly achieving (so far) its intended purpose of reducing Russian oil export revenues without disrupting Russian supplies too much.The IEA puts the decline at 1.3mn bpd on average from 2022’s level.“The oil market is in a state of extreme flux, with uncertainty high and volatility elevated. The threat of a global recession hangs over the outlook in 2023,” NBK noted.Nevertheless, it said international energy and research houses have in recent weeks nudged up their global economic, oil demand and oil price forecasts (to $91) for the year.“We believe the balance of risks is to the upside, with prices expected to move higher on the back of rebounding Chinese demand, projected Russian supply losses, Opec+ supply restraint and underwhelming non-Opec output increases. The market should get materially tighter in the second half of the year,” NBK added.

Travellers at Beijing airport. For the aviation industry, 2022 started with lots of uncertainties mainly due to a surge in Covid cases in some parts of the world and escalation in tension between Russia and Ukraine. But the industry left 2022 in far stronger shape than it entered, as most governments lifted pandemic-related travel restrictions during the year and people took advantage of the restoration of their freedom to travel.
Business
Aviation industry flies past 2022 in far stronger shape; momentum seen in 2023

**media[8345]**For the aviation industry, 2022 started with lots of uncertainties mainly due to a surge in Covid cases in some parts of the world and escalation in tension between Russia and Ukraine.But the industry left 2022 in far stronger shape than it entered, as most governments lifted pandemic-related travel restrictions during the year and people took advantage of the restoration of their freedom to travel.This momentum, experts say, is expected to continue in 2023, despite some governments’ over-reaction to China’s re-opening last month.Total traffic in 2022 (measured in revenue passenger kilometres or RPKs) rose 64.4% compared to 2021. Globally, full year 2022 traffic was at 68.5% of pre-pandemic (2019) levels.December 2022 total traffic rose 39.7% compared to December 2021 and reached 76.9% of the December 2019 level.Despite the setbacks caused by lingering travel restrictions, international traffic took off significantly in 2022 wherever these restrictions were taken down, International Air Transport Association data reveal.As a result, international RPKs surged from 26.8% of 2019 levels in 2021 to 62.2% in 2022. The year-on-year (y-o-y) growth was 152.2% in 2022.December 2022 international traffic climbed 80.2% over December 2021, reaching 75.1% of the level in December 2019.Globally, domestic operations ramped up quicker than international as domestic travel policies offered more certainty to passengers, IATA noted.Domestic traffic for 2022 rose 10.9% compared to the prior year. 2022 domestic traffic was at 79.6% of the full year 2019 level. December 2022 domestic traffic was up 2.6% over the year earlier period and was at 79.9% of December 2019 traffic.FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 and the Dubai Expo 2020 (held between October 2021 and March 2022) were mainly responsible for a 157.4% traffic rise in the Middle East region last year compared to 2021.Monitored domestic markets continued to show resilience and steady traffic levels. International passenger traffic within and between the Asia Pacific region and the rest of the world also continued to show positive trends.International passenger traffic recovered substantially last year. All regions experienced strong growth propelled by pent-up demand for air travel and easing restrictions globally. In December 2022, international RPKs tracked 24.9% under the same month in 2019 and conserved momentum with steady performance from all regions.Airlines of the Asia Pacific region continue to display the highest y-o-y growth rates. In December, international RPKs increased 302.7% y-o-y.International traffic within Asia maintained its growth momentum this month and increased to 79.1% of December 2019 levels.Although, different route areas between this region and the rest of the world present uneven levels of recovery, a strong positive trend persisted until the end of 2022.Middle Eastern carriers recorded 69.8% y-o-y growth this month and international RPKs are now 16.3% under pre-pandemic levels.Recovery trends for traffic in the premium and economy cabin classes remain broadly aligned, IATA noted.Economy class RPKs, which include premium economy (and accounts for 92% of total RPKs) reached 73.6% of their November 2019 level in November 2022.Premium RPKs, which capture travel in first and business class cabins – fared nearly as well at 77.3% of November 2019 level.After Covid-19 brought the world to a standstill in early 2020, airports and airlines soon found themselves scrambling for survival, as passenger traffic essentially eroded, particularly on international routes.In its history, the industry has never experienced such a turbulent period.IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh noted: “Let us hope that 2022 becomes known as the year in which governments locked away forever the regulatory shackles that kept their citizens earthbound for so long. It is vital that governments learn the lesson that travel restrictions and border closures have little positive impact in terms of slowing the spread of infectious diseases in our globally inter-connected world.“However, they have an enormous negative impact on people’s lives and livelihoods, as well as on the global economy that depends on the unfettered movement of people and goods.”Undoubtedly, the commercial aviation industry finds itself at a critical inflection point - ready to take off after several years of disruption and uncertainties, but still grappling with fundamental issues that threaten its long-term growth and success.Pilot shortages, supply chain issues and infrastructure investment among other issues will plague the industry and have a major impact on it this year, and probably in the medium-term.

Gulf Times
Business
Qatar may receive 300,000+ visitors during 2023 cruise season: ValuStrat

Qatar may receive in excess of 300,000 visitors during the cruise season in 2023; researcher ValuStrat said citing official figures.The country is also expected to host some 81 sports events including 14 major tournaments this year3, ValuStrat said in a report Monday.Notable occasions include: AFC Champions League 2023, Geneva International Motor Show, Least Developed Countries (LDC5) Conference, Expo 2023 (horticulture), Grand Prix 2023 and Formula 1.FIFA estimated 5bn viewers around the world watched the World Cup matches in November - December last year, it is possible 40mn people will seek to visit Qatar in the future.Upcoming hospitality establishments in the country include Corniche Park Towers, Doha live, Four Seasons Luxury Residence and Burj Damac Seaviews.According to ValuStrat, Qatar rents in both residential and retail segments may fall up to 10% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2023 on “oversupply and slowdown in demand”.For 2023, it is expected that the ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) – Residential will experience an annual depreciation reflecting gradual market correction in the sales market.Some 8,000 residential units are expected to be added in 2023, ValuStrat said.Approximately 90% of the pipeline supply is concentrated in Lusail and The Pearl. Notable projects under construction include residential buildings in La Plage South and Gewan Island mixed-use development.“Demand is projected to fall during 2023 compared to 2022, which might put downward pressures on rents of up to 10% y-o-y,” ValuStrat said.In terms of retail, ValuStrat said the existing oversupply and slow-down in demand are expected to soften rents by an estimated average of 10% y-o-y during 2023.Notable shopping centres in the pipeline for 2023: Boulevard Mall in Al Kheesa, Doha Mall in Al Maamoura and La Plage Mall in The Pearl.An estimated 700,000sq m gross leasable area (GLA) of office space is underway for 2023 handover, bringing the total office space supply up to 7.3mn sq m GLA.Oversupply is projected to exceed 2mn sq m GLA, which may continue to put downward pressure on the performance of the commercial sector, it said.

Gulf Times
Business
Qatar may see 40,000 hotel keys, 330,000 residential units by end-2023 on timely project delivery: ValuStrat

Qatar will comprise approximately 40,000 hotel keys, 330,000 residential units and an office supply of 6.5mn sq m GLA by end-2023, assuming all projects are delivered on time, says consultancy firm ValuStrat.ValuStrat noted the opening of some 46 hotels last year comprising at least 9,000 keys. An estimated 62% belonged to the 5-star category. Lusail and West Bay comprised 40% of the total hotel rooms.The number of visitors amounted to 1.9mn by the end of November 2022, as per Planning and Statistics Authority data. FIFA estimated a cumulative attendance of 3.4mn spectators, including 1.2mn international visitors equalling 96% total occupancy for the tournament. Additionally, there was a rise in ADRs as well; as of November, YTD 2022, the average ADR (average daily rate) was QR577, 38% higher y-o-y.There was a significant surge in supply in the residential market with the addition of at least 13,000 units, which majorly concentrated in Al Wukair, Lusail and The Pearl. The largest project launched was a master plan named Madinatna, in Al Wukair, to be developed by Barwa Real Estate, comprising 6,780 apartments and 20,000sq m of retail space.Excess supply was outstripped by growth in demand arising from "Eskan leases" and a temporary increase in population. As a result, residential rents increased an estimated 15% annually.While home rents saw a substantial increase, residential sales stabilised; the ValuStrat Price Index recorded marginal declines during the first half of 2022.The retail market saw significant growth in terms of supply. This includes opening a super-regional mall in Lusail, Place Vendome and regional and community malls in The Pearl, Msheireb and Lusail.Additionally, handing over of new street shops was seen, notably on Lusail Boulevard, West Bay Beach, Qetaifan Island North, and Al Maha Island.As a result, an increase in demand for retail was corroborated by the opening of new brands and expansion of existing brands in malls and street retail in Qatar. However, by Q3, 2022, there was downward pressure on rents, with supply surpassing the demand.According to ValuStrat, 90% of the upcoming 8,000 residential units will be concentrated in The Pearl and Lusail. Once the projects are handed over, the pipeline supply might negatively impact the market rent in the areas relatively more than others.The durability of 'Eskan Leases' might provide a buffer against a steep decline in demand and rental performance. However, by the end of the year, most of the leases are predicted to complete. As a result, prices and rents are expected to decline by 10% during the year.The “oversupply” in the office sector is estimated to exceed 2mn sq m GLA, including the 700,000 sq m GLA in the pipeline for 2023. The significant gap in demand and supply is expected to put downward pressure on rents of office spaces, especially in Lusail, where most of the pipeline supply is concentrated.The hospitality sector is expected to see an addition of the following notable establishments: Corniche Park Towers, Doha Live, Four-Season Luxury Residence and Burj Damac Seaviews.However, the “significant” jump in supply in Q4, 2022 and pipeline supply for 2023 is projected to dampen performance in the year as the volume of tourists is not predicted to catch up in proportion but grow gradually. Hosting major events, cruise season and transit passengers were deemed to be the main drivers of tourism growth during the year.FIFA estimated 5bn people around the world watched the World Cup matches; it is possible 40mn people will seek to visit Qatar in the medium to long term, ValuStrat said.

Gulf Times
Business
Qatar real estate market may see correction this year after 'gainful 2022': ValuStrat

Demand for real estate is not expected to grow as much as supply in Qatar this year, so market corrections are predicted to be pervasive across all real estate sectors during 2023, according to consulting group ValuStrat. However, Qatar’s real estate market saw a “gainful” year despite a global slowdown in 2022, it said in a report. There was a significant surge in supply in the residential market with the addition of at least 13,000 units, which majorly concentrated in Al Wukair, Lusail and The Pearl, ValuStrat said. The largest project launched was a master plan named Madinatna, in Al Wukair, to be developed by Barwa Real Estate, comprising 6,780 apartments and 20,000sq m of retail space. Excess supply was outstripped by growth in demand arising from "Eskan leases" and a temporary increase in population. As a result, residential rents increased an estimated 15% annually. While home rents saw a substantial increase, residential sales stabilised; the ValuStrat Price Index recorded marginal declines during the first half of 2022. The retail market saw significant growth in terms of supply. This includes opening a super-regional mall in Lusail, Place Vendome and regional and community malls in The Pearl, Msheireb and Lusail. Additionally, new street shops were handed over notably on Lusail Boulevard, West Bay Beach, Qetaifan Island North, and Al Maha Island. As a result, an increase in demand for retail was corroborated by the opening of new brands and expansion of existing brands in malls and street retail in Qatar. However, by Q3, 2022, there was downward pressure on rents, with supply surpassing the demand. Pawel Banach, ValuStrat Qatar general manager commented, "2022 was transformative for Qatar with a considerable influx of supply across all sectors. In H2, 2022, we saw the opening of no less than 40 hospitality projects and the addition of more than 10,000 residential units. The market conditions should have put downward pressure on rents. However, due to the hosting of FIFA World Cup 2022, there was upward movement in prices and rents across all sectors". The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted the real GDP of Qatar to grow by 2.4% during 2023, even though it expects a third of the world to go into recession amid the conflict in Ukraine. In addition, the demand for Qatari gas continues to rise, and the economy is projected to benefit from their ongoing major investments in energy infrastructure. Consequently, Qatar's budget surplus is predicted to grow to QR70.3bn in 2023 (oil price assumed at $55 per barrel). ValuStrat Qatar head (Research) Anum Hasan commented, "From a macroeconomic point of view, Qatar has a positive economic outlook for 2023. However, in the context of the real estate sector, the market will have to grapple with the huge influx of supply in 2022 resulting from the hosting FIFA World Cup 2022. Demand is not expected to grow as much as supply, so market corrections are predicted to be pervasive across all real estate sectors during 2023."