Qatar
Island of Stability: Study finds Turkish public backs neutrality as regional wars reshape foreign policy
A new study published by the Arab Centre for Research and Policy Studies, Doha, argues that Turkiye's greatest strategic achievement in an increasingly turbulent Middle East may not be military power or diplomatic influence alone, but its ability to present itself as an "Island of Stability" amid regional conflict.
Published on July 9, 2026, the study, "Public Opinion Trends in Turkiye toward the US-Israeli War on Iran”, by Palestinian researcher Mahmoud Samir al-Rantisi, examines how the war has transformed Turkish public opinion and reshaped perceptions of foreign policy, national security and political leadership.
Drawing on several nationwide opinion polls conducted in 2026, including surveys by MetroPoll and GENAR, the research concludes that Turkish society overwhelmingly favour neutrality and mediation over military alignment, while placing growing value on domestic stability and economic resilience.
The study identifies the concept of the "Island of Stability" as the defining narrative emerging from the conflict. Repeatedly introduced by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during the war, the phrase portrays Turkiye as a secure and resilient state amid regional turmoil. According to the research, this message has become one of the government's most effective political narratives, reinforcing public confidence that Turkiye has managed to shield itself from the direct consequences of neighbouring conflicts.
Erdoğan has argued that Turkiye's stability stems from strong institutions, an expanding economy, advanced defence industries and a cohesive national front. The study suggests that this vision has resonated widely, helping strengthen the perception that Turkiye can navigate regional crises without becoming directly involved in them.
Beyond political messaging, the surveys reveal a remarkably consistent public preference for neutrality. Nearly seven out of ten respondents believe Turkiye should avoid taking sides in the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, while support for direct alignment with both Washington and Israel or Tehran remains limited. Instead, most respondents favour Turkiye acting as a mediator, reflecting a broader desire for the country to serve as an independent regional balancing power.
Economic concerns emerge as the principal driver behind these attitudes. The overwhelming majority of respondents expect the conflict to worsen living standards through inflation, rising prices and slower economic growth. These concerns outweigh fears of direct military threats, highlighting a pragmatic public preference for policies that minimise economic disruption and preserve internal stability.
The study also uncovers an important paradox in Turkish public opinion. Although trust in the United States has fallen to exceptionally low levels, support for Turkiye's continued membership in Nato remains strong. Rather than signalling a contradiction, the research argues that this reflects a desire for greater strategic autonomy, maintaining Nato as a security umbrella while pursuing a more independent foreign policy free from excessive dependence on Washington.
On the domestic political front, the findings suggest that national security and foreign policy continue to provide Erdoğan with a comparative advantage over his political rivals. Despite persistent criticism of the government's economic performance, many respondents still regard him as the leader best equipped to manage periods of war and regional instability, drawing on more than two decades of crisis management experience.
The research also notes a growing public engagement with foreign affairs. Issues traditionally overshadowed by domestic politics now occupy a far more prominent place in public debate, reflecting heightened awareness of how regional conflicts directly affect Turkiye's economy, security and international standing.
The study concludes that Turkish public opinion is increasingly aligned behind a foreign policy centred on neutrality, mediation and strategic independence. It argues that preserving Turkiye's image as an "Island of Stability" has become both a political asset and a strategic objective, one that strengthens domestic cohesion while enhancing Ankara's ability to position itself as a credible regional power in an era marked by geopolitical uncertainty.