US economic growth is set to accelerate with cheaper oil. Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely with inflation cooling. Stock pickers are looking for alternatives to artificial intelligence (AI) plays and the American consumer continues to spend.
Together it’s a near-perfect recipe for shares in companies that are most closely tied to the economic cycle. Banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co, equipment makers like Caterpillar Inc and retailers like Gap Inc and Dollar Tree Inc are among the companies strategists and analysts expect to do well in 2026.
“Investors are starting to sniff out the beginning of an improvement in cyclical areas of the economy,” said Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist and head of portfolio strategy at Piper Sandler.
That means financials, industrials and purveyors of non-essential consumer products should be at the vanguard of what Wall Street expects will be another strong year for US equities. Some six dozen economists surveyed by Bloomberg have an average growth target for the US economy of 2% next year — hardly gangbusters but strong enough to drive gains in areas outside of technology.
“You want to be positioned for finding names that are going to see an incremental benefit to their earnings picture in the next year as we expect cyclical data to improve and lead to value outperformance in 2026 for the first time in a long time,” Kantrowitz said.
The rotation has already started. After moving more or less in tandem with the S&P 500 Index through the year, a Goldman Sachs basket of cyclical stocks has climbed 9.3% over the last month. That advance is twice as fast as the broader market, with the S&P 500 Index rising just 4.2%.
Moreover, the cyclicals group has outperformed defensive stocks, which were the key beneficiaries of the October-through-November mini-rotation and pullback from the information tech sector. Another Goldman basket that is long cyclicals outside of the commodities space and short defensive names is up 10% over the last month.
“Rotation into the non-tech cyclicals signals encouraging economic expansion expectations,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, in a note to clients. His firm expects real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2026, “aided by a 4.1% rise in retail sales and a decline in Core PCE to 2.4%.”
Elsewhere on Wall Street, the cyclical group is seen as a longer-term winner in 2026 with Dennis DeBusschere, founder and chief market strategist at 22V Research LLC, saying that “pro-cyclical trades should last longer than a quarter or two.”
His favourite way to play the trade is going long banks and retail stocks and short consumer staples. He also likes buying the transportation group outside of the airlines.
The strengthening case for cyclical stocks is also evident in the advance of the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which has climbed 10% over the past month and, after a long period of underperformance, is finally within 0.4% of notching its first record high since November 2024.
Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at US Bank NA, is recommending clients add broad cyclical exposures within equities. “We want more cyclical exposure but not by selling tech stocks to get it,” he said by phone, noting that he expects tech to continue to lead earnings growth next year, followed by materials and industrials stocks.
Citi strategists led by Adam Pickett said in a December 15 note that cyclicals should outperform defensives and recommends investors be overweight financials, the bank’s pick within cyclical sectors, and underweight staples. “Industrials are an upgrade candidate, too,” he wrote.
One potential challenge to cyclicals’ rise in 2026 is the economy running hot enough that hoped-for rate cuts are either delayed, or potentially reversed, Pickett writes.
“It is far from certain,” that the Fed will continue to trim interest rates through the end of 2026, he said.
At this point, the market is pricing in two rate cuts over the course of 2026, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Federal Reserve is also projecting 2.3% GDP growth through 2026, up from previous views of 1.8% as recently as September.
A faster-growing US economy “would especially benefit cyclical businesses and sectors, whose earnings are most sensitive to economic activity levels,” Michael Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategy at Horizon Investments LLC, said in a note to clients.
