Crude oil sales from the world’s biggest exporter, Saudi Arabia, are set to surge as 2026 begins, with customers from the US to Asia all set to receive more supply amid growing concerns over an oil glut.
Chinese refiners are poised to receive around 50mn barrels from Saudi Arabia, the leading member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. They will load next month and are equivalent to some 1.6mn barrels a day — and it’ll be the highest allocated amount since August, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Those barrels will likely arrive in late January or in February.
Meanwhile, there’s 509,000 barrels a day of crude from the kingdom bound for the US that had loaded in November, according to data from Kpler Ltd. That’s likely to be sustained, with OilX, a unit of Energy Aspects, estimating that January arrival of Saudi crude to the US will hit 594,000 barrels a day. The inflows would be the highest seen since 2022 and are weighing down prices of oil in the US Gulf Coast market.
It’s all adding to signs that global oil markets will be awash with supply next year, as producers, including those within Opec, ramp up drilling at a time when demand growth is set to remain tepid. Opec and its allies had earlier agreed to revive oil production in the final months of this year in an apparent effort to regain market share.
With oil prices falling, Opec+ last month said it will pause further production increases during the first quarter of 2026. Among leading forecasters, the International Energy Agency said markets will be oversupplied by 3.8mn barrels a day in 2026.
Japan, as well, has seen higher Saudi flows, with November-loading crude bound for the Asian nation at around 1.3mn barrels a day, which would be the most since April 2023, Kpler data also showed. Projections indicated a higher rate of Japan-bound Aramco exports for December loading — over 1.4mn barrels a day — although the number can still change.
The oil-derivative market is also flashing signs of oversupply. The forward curve for the Middle Eastern benchmark, Dubai, is hovering around a contango structure — where later-dated contracts trade at a premium to more prompt ones, indicating weak near-term demand.
