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Iran warned Wednesday it was ready for a long war of attrition that would "destroy" the world economy, after firing on two commercial ships and threatening vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.As Tehran tightened its chokehold on the crucial sea passage for the global fuel trade, the International Energy Agency announced a record release of 400 mn barrels of oil reserves by its members in a bid to tame prices.Oil prices have surged since February 28, when the US and Israel attacked Iran, killed its supreme leader and plunged the Middle East into war."This is a major action aiming to alleviate the immediate impacts of the disruption in markets," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told reporters."But to be clear, the most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and gas is the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz."US President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that "very quickly" there would be "great safety" for oil tankers in the strait, through which 20% of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies transit.In an interview with Axios, he said the war could end "soon" and US forces had "practically nothing left to target".CIVILIANS PORTS THREATWith the conflict now in its 12th day, Iran's Revolutionary Guard vowed to target "economic centres and banks" that it deems linked to US and Israeli interests, prompting more international firms to evacuate employees from Dubai.The US and Israel "must consider the possibility that they will be engaged in a long-term war of attrition that will destroy the entire American economy and the world economy", Ali Fadavi, advisor to the Revolutionary Guards' commander-in-chief, told state television.Iran said it had struck the Liberian-flagged container ship Express Rome and the Thai bulk carrier Mayuree Naree because they had entered the Strait of Hormuz "after ignoring the warnings of the IRGC naval forces".Oman's navy rescued 20 crew members, but efforts were underway to find three more. Pictures shared by the Thai navy showed black smoke pouring out of the vessel.Iran also threatened to target regional ports if its own were attacked after the US accused Iran of using civilian ports in the strait for military operations and warned that it would consider them legitimate targets.GULF AIRPORT, FUEL TANKS HITAnalysts say a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which also carries a third of the fertiliser for world food production, would have a devastating effect on the global economy, particularly in Asia and Europe.French President Emmanuel Macron urged G7 leaders to act to restore navigation there "as soon as possible", while the UN asked for all parties to allow humanitarian cargo to transit.Iran has amplified the economic fallout by targeting US allies in the Gulf.Wednesday, drones fell near Dubai airport, injuring four people, the city's government said.Drones also hit fuel tanks at Oman's Salalah port, Oman News Agency reported.FIREBALL IN BEIRUTLebanon was drawn into the war last week when Hezbollah group attacked Israel in response to the killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Israeli strikes Wednesday hit an apartment building in central Beirut.AFPTV's live broadcast captured the sound of an air strike followed by a fireball erupting.An AFP correspondent saw destroyed walls in the building's seventh and eighth floors, with damaged cars nearby and security forces present at the scene.When the strike hit, "I ran from room to room, pulled my wife and daughter out of the rooms and hid them behind a wall, then the second strike hit", said Fawzi Asmar, owner of a bakery on the street where the strike took place.Lebanon said the death toll in 10 days of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah during the Middle East war had reached 634, while more than 800,000 people have registered as displaced.The Israeli-US attacks came weeks after Iranian authorities crushed mass protests, although the US and Israel say they are not necessarily seeking to topple the Islamic republic.Iranian authorities warned against dissent at home, with the country's police chief Ahmad-Reza Radan saying protesters would be viewed and dealt with as "enemies"."This is the bitter reality of the Islamic republic: Even in the midst of a crisis, it seizes the opportunity for repression," Nobel peace prize laureate Shirin Ebadi wrote in a post on Telegram."When the police chief says 'hands on the trigger' it means he is ready to kill citizens instead of protecting people's lives," she added."The Islamic republic says in a thousand languages that its first enemy is its own people, followed by Israel and America."The US and Israel launched the war with an attack that killed Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.His son Mojtaba Khamenei has been named his successor, though he has yet to appear in public, and Wednesday officials said the new ayatollah was injured but "safe".Iran's health ministry said on March 8 that more than 1,200 people had been killed in US and Israeli strikes. AFP was not in a position to independently verify the figures. 

The Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) remains "a bright spot in the world economy" in the current challenging global economic scenario, noted Bo Li, deputy managing director, International Monetary Fund, while launching the IMF's 2025 GCC report 'Enhancing Resilience to Global Shocks: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries' at Doha Forum 2025.According to Li, the global economic context remains challenging and despite the challenging external environment, the GCC economies have been resilient and the GCC growth is expected to accelerate from 3.3% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026.“The world economy is adjusting to a landscape that is being shaped by major structural transformations, ranging from geopolitics and trade relations to new technologies and demographic shifts. In this environment, global growth remains subdued and risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside," said Li.Li noted that the outlook shows some differences across regions. He explained: “While economic growth is set to slow in some parts of the world, the GCC remains a bright spot in the world economy. In an environment characterised by heightened global uncertainty, trade tensions and a decline in oil prices and a conflict in the region, the GCC economies have demonstrated remarkable resilience.”He noted that the resilience results from a combination of favourable external conditions and good policies. “It is fair to say that the resilience of the GCC over the past year has largely been the result of good policies, prudent macroeconomic policies and strong structural reform momentum,” he highlightedThe official said the GCC economic growth will be bolstered by the continued strength of non-hydrocarbon economy amid diversification efforts.“In this uncertain environment, the overarching policy objective is to enhance resilience and accelerate economic diversification irrespective of oil prices,” he continued.Li stated that the continued challenge for fiscal policy is to balance the objectives of intergenerational equity, economic diversification, and counter-cyclical stabilisation.“Amid high global uncertainty, financial sector policies should continue to proactively manage systemic risks. Accelerating and prioritising reforms will support the transition to a new growth model. In this regard, diversification efforts would benefit from the deepening of domestic financial markets and the fostering of new and more diverse international economic relationships,” he stressed.“In this regard, I am very happy to see the theme of this year's Doha Forum, ‘Justice in Action’ which is very appropriate. We look forward to deepening further our excellent partnership on capacity development with the GCC countries,” he added. 

QNB confirmed that the beginning of 2025 was accompanied by cautiously positive expectations for global trade growth, supported by relative stability in the world economy. However, new shifts in US trade policy have significantly affected the global economic landscape. The bank's weekly report noted that the decision of the United States on Apr. 2 to impose broad tariffs including duties of no less than 10 percent on imports and higher rates on selected countries has led to rising concerns about supply chain disruptions, increased uncertainty, and the potential escalation of trade disputes. The report stated that, as a result, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast a contraction in global trade volumes for the current year, an occurrence that is rare and typically seen only in exceptional circumstances such as the 2009 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The report explained that economic indicators since April 2025 have shown notable resilience in the global economy despite existing challenges. It projected that global trade growth in 2025 will be modest compared to previous periods, but will remain far beyond the most pessimistic scenarios. This outlook is supported by three main factors. The first factor highlighted in the report is that leading indicators, particularly from highly integrated Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam, reflect strong export activity, signaling a recovery in global trade. These markets recorded an average annual growth rate of 6 percent in 2024, with the rate accelerating to 12 percent in the last four months of the year despite trade tensions. The report also pointed to Chinese export growth of 6 percent during the same period, reflecting sustained global demand. In this context, the report stated that investor expectations regarding the earnings of transportation-sector companies serve as an important indicator of future global trade trends. The Dow Jones Transportation Average in the United States, which includes companies involved in air, land, and sea transport as well as rail and delivery services, reached its lowest annual growth level in mid-2024 before rebounding into positive territory, signaling a possible expansion of trade.This improvement reflects a decline in pessimism even amid continued trade shocks. The gap between strong Asian export growth and the more cautious profit expectations of transport companies was attributed to the increase in early shipments to the US market in anticipation of further tariff threats. The second factor concerns a significant decrease in the likelihood of large-scale global trade wars despite the rise of US protectionist policies. The report explained that the conclusion of US negotiations with key trading partners, including the United Kingdom, Japan, and the European Union, has clearly reduced uncertainty and lowered the probability of expanding tariff measures. At the same time, most global economies are moving toward greater trade integration through multilateral agreements, which reduces the negative impact of protectionist policies and strengthens the stability of the global trading system. The third factor relates to monetary policy. The report considered that waves of monetary easing adopted by major central banks are expected to provide additional support for global trade growth in the coming period. It noted that the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 125 basis points next year, bringing it down to 3.25 percent by the end of 2026, in an effort to reduce borrowing costs and stimulate economic activity. Similarly, the European Central Bank has lowered its key rate by 200 basis points since mid-2024 to settle at 2 percent.The report emphasized that interest rates are a decisive factor in supporting investment and boosting consumer spending, which are two key pillars of global trade, particularly given that the United States and the euro area together account for about 40 percent of global GDP. The bank concluded its report by affirming that the outlook for 2025 indicates a tangible improvement in the prospects for global trade compared to the more pessimistic scenarios that followed Washington's announcement of broad tariffs. It pointed out that a combination of positive economic indicators, accommodative monetary policies, and the signing of new trade agreements is helping to limit the repercussions of geopolitical and economic tensions and to support the stability of the global trading system in the upcoming period.