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Investors will be counting on a strong corporate earnings season to keep the US stock ‌market rally intact as they digest a wave of domestic policy proposals and heightened geopolitical tensions to ‌start the year. After banks and other ‍financial firms kicked off fourth-quarter reports, a more diverse set of companies, including Netflix , Johnson & Johnson and Intel, will post results in the coming week.Following ⁠robust performance in 2025, major equity indexes have climbed ⁠to start the new year, even as they dipped this week and volatility measures crept higher."Because of the amount ‍of noise we have around geopolitics and policy, it is literally an imperative that earnings actually carry the news cycle," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth."While the bar is set pretty high for this quarter, those companies that can meet and beat and raise guidance for the full year 2026 are actually going to get rewarded and will probably be a much-needed tailwind for markets."The S&P 500 fell slightly on the week, although the benchmark index remained close to record-high levels. After strong gains in 2025, shares of major ‌banks including JPMorgan and Wells Fargo pulled back following their results. Among the factors pressuring bank stocks during the week was President Donald Trump's proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates, a surprise move that blindsided the industry and also followed the president's new plan ‍to stop Wall Street firms from buying ⁠up single-family homes.On the international stage, Trump's aggressive moves and words have also kept investors on edge. The latest global focus centred on Iran, where Trump threatened intervention on behalf of protesters in the country though he later was adopting a wait-and-see posture.The uncertainty has boosted safe-haven bids for gold this year while pockets of equity markets such as energy shares have fluctuated, but the major stock indexes have largely been unbothered by news developments so far."The market has largely shrugged off a lot of the geopolitical and domestic political issues, but there's certainly a lot to be worried about there," said James Ragan, co-chief investment officer and director of investment management research at DA Davidson. "There's always a chance that the president tries to get ambitious, set out some bold policies, and the market's going to have to decide whether it's important enough to react to ​that."US stock markets are closed on Monday ‌for the Martin Luther King Jr holiday, but earnings rev up after that, headlined by Netflix results on Tuesday. The streaming giant will draw added attention due to ⁠its high-stakes battle with Paramount Skydance for Warner Bros ‍Discovery in a deal that stands to shake up the media landscape. Focus will be on corporate outlooks, with hopes high for 2026. S&P 500 companies overall are expected to increase earnings by more than 15% in 2026."I continue to believe that the most important thing right now is earnings," said Chris Fasciano, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network. "If we continue to get good earnings, I think that will be supportive for the market."Investors are also ​waiting for the US Supreme Court to decide on the legality of Trump's global tariffs, a ruling that could set off asset price volatility. The court on Wednesday also will hear arguments over Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, bringing fresh attention to the central bank's independence amid persistent criticism from Trump that the Fed has not lowered interest rates sufficiently.Such concerns about Fed independence erupted this week after news of a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump told Reuters this week he has no plans to fire Powell, whose term as chair ends in May, while he is expected to nominate a new Fed leader soon.The end of Powell's chair term "will mark ⁠a critical inflection point for the independence narrative," Wedbush strategists said in a report this week. "A lack of Fed independence could stoke inflation fears and make the US debt more expensive to finance." 

The first full trading week of the new year could shake the US stock market out of its winter holiday slumber as investors parse the rapid developments in Venezuela while monthly jobs data looms.Stocks slid in the final session of 2025, with the benchmark S&P 500 falling into a monthly loss for December. But the index still climbed more than 16% in 2025, its third straight year ⁠of double-digit percentage gains, while the Cboe Volatility index ⁠was just above its lows for the year.Trading volumes were thin at the end of 2025, but the new year could get off to an eventful start.In dramatic weekend events, US President Donald Trump said on Saturday he was putting Venezuela under temporary American control after the United States captured President Nicolas Maduro.Investors said such developments in the oil-rich country raised the concerns around geopolitical risks, and that any oil price volatility would ripple through assets.Investors also await more drama with a US Supreme Court decision looming on Trump's tariffs, along with his choice of a new Federal Reserve chair, and US corporate earnings season is around the corner.In the first session of 2026 on Friday, the S&P 500 posted a slim gain as semiconductor shares rallied.Though the benchmark is near record highs, it is hovering around its late October level, said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak."The market is looking for direction," Maley said. "We break out of these ranges and that's going to give people either a lot of confidence or a lot of ⁠concern, depending on which way it breaks."The employment data due on January 9 could provide a jolt either way. Concerns over weakness in the labor market prompted the Fed to lower interest rates at each of its last three meetings of 2025, as the US central bank juggles its goals of full employment and contained inflation.Lower rates have supported equities, but the extent of further cuts in 2026 is unclear. Fed officials were divided over the path for monetary policy at the most recent meeting in December. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% annual target.With the benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, Fed funds futures suggest little chance of a cut at the next meeting in late January, but nearly a 50% chance of a quarter-point reduction in March."Softening in the labor market has really given the Fed good cover to change their outlook about reducing rates," said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management in Chicago.At the same time, investors are wary that an overly weak report could signal more economic concern than markets now anticipate.Employment for December is expected to have climbed by 55,000 jobs, a Reuters poll showed. Payrolls rose ⁠by 64,000 in November, but unemployment of 4.6% was at a more than four-year high."If (employment) starts turning down in any kind of meaningful way, that's going to signal that the recession is a lot closer than people think," Maley said.Other data next week includes manufacturing and services sector activity, along with job openings and other labor market data. Economic releases are returning to more normal schedules after a 43-day government shutdown that delayed or canceled many key reports.A closely watched report on inflation trends, the monthly US consumer price index, is due out on January 13."Anything that has to do with underlying economic activity and inflation is really going to catch the market's attention," said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.A backdrop of modest economic growth and moderating inflation is "a good environment for stocks and for risk assets in general," he added.Investors will be preparing for the fourth-quarter earnings season, with results from JPMorgan due on January 13, among other major bank reports that week.With stocks trading at historically lofty valuations, investors are banking on strong earnings growth. Overall S&P 500 company earnings are expected to have climbed 13% in 2025, with another rise of 15.5% in 2026, LSEG IBES data shows."To make an investment case for the S&P 500 at current levels, one must believe ⁠in some combination of good and very good earnings growth and continued investor confidence in economic conditions and macro policy," Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in a research note.

Investors are looking for the US stock market to end 2025 on a high note this week, with equities at record peaks and nearing further bullish milestones to close out another strong year.Major US indexes were on course to end December higher after stocks shook off turbulence earlier in the month driven by weakness in technology shares over worries tied to spending on artificial intelligence.The S&P 500, posted a record close on Wednesday, ahead of the Christmas holiday on Thursday, and was about 1% from reaching the 7,000 level for the first time. The benchmark index was on track for its eighth straight month of gains, which would be its longest monthly winning streak since 2017-2018."Momentum is certainly on the side of the bulls," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management. "Barring any exogenous event, the path of least resistance for stocks, I think, is higher."Minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting highlight the market events in the holiday-shortened week ahead, while year-end portfolio adjustments could cause some volatility at a time when light trading volumes can exaggerate asset price moves.Heading into the new year, investors are highly focused on when the Fed might further cut interest rates. The US central bank, which balances goals of contained inflation and full employment, lowered its benchmark rate by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025 to the current level of 3.50-3.75%.But the Fed's most recent vote at its December 9-10 meeting to lower rates by a quarter percentage point was divided, while policymakers also gave widely different projections about rates in the coming year. The minutes for that meeting, due to be released on Tuesday of next week, may be "illuminating to hear what some of the arguments were around the table," said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede."Handicapping how many rate cuts we're going to get next year is a big thing markets are focused on right now," Reynolds said. "We'll just get a little bit more information on that next week."Investors are also waiting for President Donald Trump to nominate a Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, and any inkling of Trump's decision could sway markets in the coming week.With just a handful of trading sessions left in 2025, the S&P 500 was up nearly 18% for the year, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Compositem, up 22%.However, the tech sector, which has been the main driver of the more than three-year-old bull market, has struggled in recent weeks, while other areas of the market have shined. Despite rebounding this week, the S&P 500 tech sector, has declined more than 3% since the start of November. Over that time, areas such as financials, transports, healthcare and small caps have posted solid gains.The market moves indicate some rotation into areas where valuations are more moderate, said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial."There are more investors that are buying in to the narrative that the economy is on pretty solid footing right now," Saglimbene said. "And it has weathered a lot of potential roadblocks this year that might not be such roadblocks next year." 

India’s stock market has become one of the calmest in the world — so calm that it’s prompting a rethink of strategies among players in the country’s vast derivatives space.Despite geopolitical flare ups and a recent global selloff in risk assets, the NSE Nifty 50 Index has barely budged for months as domestic money overwhelms foreign flows and derivatives trading curbs choke off volatility. The India NSE Volatility Index, a gauge tracking expectations for future swings, ended Friday at an all-time low.For the traders powering the world’s largest options market by volume, that’s making it harder to profit from the well-known strategies. Volatility is the engine of derivatives trading: when markets swing, investors pay up to hedge, and the cost of contracts rise. When stocks are calm, premiums shrink, eroding returns for option sellers and leaving traditional strategies less profitable.“The market has become more efficient and competitive — that’s meant lower returns for standard vol-selling strategies,” said Nitesh Gupta, partner and derivatives trader at Karna Stock Broking LLP. “In this environment, trading desks will have to increase risk to make better returns.”A turning point came last year, when the Securities and Exchange Board of India launched a sweeping crackdown aimed at curbing speculative retail activity and addressing losses among individual traders. The regulator scrapped several popular weekly options, cutting out the very products that had amplified intraday swings and drying out volume.The impact is clear: While activity has bounced off from a low in February, notional turnover has averaged almost Rs240tn ($2.7tn) a day this year, down 35% from 2024. It’s the first annual decline since data going back to 2017.That drop in derivatives activity has fed back into the underlying market: The Nifty 50 has moved less than 1.5% for 151 consecutive sessions, a run that’s nearing a record set in 2023, and its three-month realised volatility has slipped toward 8 points — lower than in any major global market.Meanwhile, the market’s players have changed. Foreign funds have pulled some $17bn this year — more than ever before — amid trade tensions with the US and a lack of shares tied to the artificial intelligence boom. At the same time, local institutions have become the market’s biggest owners, pouring a record surpassing $80bn into the shares since January. They overtook foreigners in the first quarter, according to figures from data provider primeinfobase.com going back to 2009.The tranquillity hasn’t translated into big rewards for equity holders. The Nifty 50 has gained 9.8% this year, much less than the 27% advance in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the 20% rise in the MSCI All-Country World Index.One drag is valuation: India’s benchmark gauge trades at 20 times projected earnings, above its five-year average and far richer than the 13 times for the broader emerging-markets index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.For derivatives traders, the new regime is forcing a rethink. Strategies often built around selling options and rolling short-term positions may not yield as much as they used to, according to Bhautik Ambani, chief executive officer at AlphaGrep Investment Management Pvt. And the elimination of short-dated contracts leaves fewer ways to express near-term views or capture premiums.“The low volatility environment and reduction in weekly options contracts have hurt strategies that profit from options selling,” Ambani said. But volatility is likely to rebound — it’s just too low right now, he added. 

The US stock market is poised to be kept on edge next year as investors are caught between fear of missing out (FOMO) on the artificial-intelligence (AI) rally and concern that it’s a bubble just waiting to burst.Big selloffs and quick reversals have been a feature of stock markets for the past 18 months. That trend is likely to continue heading into 2026, with some strategists anticipating that AI will follow the boom-and-bust cycle of past technological revolutions.The tech companies at the centre of the AI investment boom carry an outsized influence. While the divergence between the group and the rest of the S&P 500 has helped dampen realised volatility across the market in 2025 as gains in tech cancel out declines elsewhere, investors are alert for stumbles in chip names to spread. That would cause volatility gauges such as the Cboe Volatility Index to surge.“2025 has generally been a year of rotation and narrow leadership, rather than one of broad risk-on versus risk-off,” said Kieran Diamond, derivatives strategist at UBS Group AG. “This has helped to drag implied correlation levels down to record lows, which in turn leaves the VIX at risk of ongoing outsized spikes whenever we see macro drivers taking over again.”The scale of the stock-price runup has made angst about a bubble the top concern among fund managers, a recent Bank of America Corp survey found. But another is the classic risk of missing out if it still has more room to run — potentially punishing anyone who pulls back too early.The strategists expect equity volatility to be supported in 2026 primarily because asset bubbles tend to get more unstable as they inflate. As a result, they say investors should expect occasional declines surpassing 10%, but with record-fast snapbacks as traders realise the bubble isn’t popping yet.To UBS strategists, the question of whether the AI boom continues or busts makes owning contracts that profit from higher volatility on tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index key to playing both sides of the trade. Maxwell Grinacoff, head of US equity-derivatives research at the Swiss bank, says volatility wagers on the gauge perform better in both scenarios, adding that the trade can be structured to be directionally neutral using straddles or over-the-counter swaps.Buying Nasdaq 100 volatility while selling S&P 500 volatility is “my highest conviction trade for the next year,” Grinacoff said.There may be longer periods of calm in between moments of uproar, however. JPMorgan Chase & Co strategists say volatility is being tugged between technical and fundamental factors that suppress it and macro factors that support above-average levels. While the median VIX level will hold around 16 to 17 for 2026, risk-off periods will send the index surging, they argue.One other technical factor that will affect options pricing is an imbalance of investment flows that should steepen the volatility curve in 2026, according to Antoine Porcheret, head of institutional structuring for the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Citigroup Inc.“At the short end of the curve, you have a lot of supply coming from both retail and institutions — there’s been a significant growth in QIS and volume carry strategies, and that will likely amplify next year,” he said. “At the long end, you have hedging flows which will keep the long end elevated, so a steep term structure can be expected.”The popular dispersion trade — which involves betting on higher single stock volatility and smaller index moves — will likely be especially popular early in the year, with investors putting on new versions of the strategies. Some funds are now taking the opposite position in what they argue has become an overcrowded trade.“Dispersion is an extremely popular, overcrowded tourist trade these days,” said Benn Eifert, managing partner and co-chief investment officer of QVR Advisors, a San Francisco-based volatility fund. “We have the reverse dispersion trade on.”Firms will need to get more creative to squeeze returns out of dispersion strategies, said Alexis Maubourguet, chief investment officer of Adapt Investment Managers, a Swiss hedge fund. Investors looking for more edge will explore variations.“Dispersion now is a well-known strategy and a lot of the alpha has disappeared,” said Maubourguet. “You can improve your implementation, you can improve your name selection. The third way to do that is to improve your timing and trade tactically around your position.”Others expect the flow of capital into dispersion strategies to keep demand for single-stock volatility relatively elevated.“A lot of dispersion packages will expire in January, so hedge funds will be re-loading on custom basket dispersion, and that will likely maintain the single-stock volume premium over the index,” Porcheret said.Some players are just buying single-stock volatility, while others are selling a smaller amount of index volatility at the same time to help cheapen the carry cost during quiet times, Maubourguet added.The biggest question for investors is how to time any sudden moves. Strategists at Societe Generale SA including Jitesh Kumar presented in a client note a fundamental volatility regime model that they apply to dynamically switch between long and short volatility trades.Broadly, a flattening yield curve is the signal for buying volatility, while the short volatility trade is triggered by a steepening curve. Although the model underperformed the S&P 500’s total return over a two-decade period, it avoided significant drawdowns in 2008 and 2020.The model — which the strategists say has a good track record of forecasting turning points in volatility — points to higher volatility for 2026. The overall corporate sector in the US has low leverage, but the strategists believe it is at the cusp of a new AI driven re-leveraging cycle which should lead to both credit spreads and equity volatility moving higher.Overall, hedging for tail risks will be especially important for investors in 2026, according to Tanvir Sandhu, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief global derivatives strategist.“Investor FOMO, conflicting AI narratives and the US administration as a source of volatility are creating a supportive backdrop for trading volatility, making preparation for both the left and right tails key in 2026,” he said. 

Investors hoping for traditional holiday cheer for the US stock market are encountering turbulence that ‌could keep markets on edge into year-end.Despite stock indexes remaining on track for solid performance in ‌2025, the benchmark S&P 500 has ‍edged lower so far in December, bucking historical trends that have shown it to be a strong month on average.Two themes have ⁠sparked swings in US equities in recent weeks: Scrutiny ⁠on massive corporate spending for the artificial intelligence buildout, and shifting expectations about further interest rate cuts by ‍the Federal Reserve in 2026. This week, questions about a data-centre project from Oracle weighed on tech and other AI-related stocks, while tame inflation data on Thursday gave stocks a lift. "This week's economic data solidifies expectations that the Fed will have a rate-cutting bias," said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones.While investors in the coming days may look to lock in profits after a solid year, causing some selling pressure, the latest data "likely provide a green light for the Santa Claus rally to take ‌place this year," Kourkafas said.Since 1950, the "Santa Claus rally" has seen the S&P 500 rise an average 1.3% over the last five trading days of the year and the first two in January, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. ‍This year, that period starts Wednesday ⁠and runs through January 5.Investors this week digested a heavy batch of data that had been delayed due to the 43-day federal government shutdown. Employment data showed job growth rebounded in November but the unemployment rate stood at 4.6%, its highest level in over four years.Another delayed report on Thursday showed the US consumer price index increased less than expected in the year to November. Optimism from the cooling inflation data may be tempered by distortions, including data collection being delayed late into November, when retailers offered holiday season discounts.The Fed has cut interest rates at three consecutive meetings, leaving investors now to parse data for insight into when the central bank might be able to ease again in 2026."Going into next week... there's going to be a big question around what ​is the path ahead for the Fed," ‌given the shutdown-related data distortions, said Trevor Slaven, global head of asset allocation and multi-asset portfolio solutions at Barings."There's this unsettled argument between the direction of travel ⁠for these major central banks, the direction ‍of travel for inflation at a time when it does look like there's (more) softness" in the labour market data, Slaven said.Economic reports in the coming week include third-quarter gross domestic product, durable goods orders and consumer confidence.Focus during the holiday-shortened trading week also will likely remain on the AI trade that has helped lift stocks this year. The S&P 500 is up more than 15% so far 2025, on track for its third consecutive year ​of gains of at least 10%.More recently, however, AI-related worries - including when massive infrastructure spending will generate returns - have dented the high-flying tech sector, which carries by far the largest weighting in major indexes such as the S&P 500. "You're starting to just see this scepticism around the AI spend becoming more prominent," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. For the tech and tech-related stocks, "obviously their disproportionate representation in the cap-weighted index at large is helping to put some pressure on the tape."Other sectors that had lagged this year have helped pick up the slack. Those include economically sensitive areas such as transportation, financial and ⁠small-cap groups, which are all higher so far in December."We've seen money move away from tech," Kourkafas said. "Other areas have stepped up and have helped keep markets mostly range-bound." 

The Indian rupee’s slide to repeated record lows is starting to pinch the equity market, with analysts warning that prolonged weakness could undermine confidence in the nascent recovery of the $5.2tn stock market.Asia’s worst-performing currency this year has become a near-term risk for Indian stocks, tempering optimism driven by strong economic growth and improving corporate earnings. In December, global funds pulled about $1.6bn from local equities, wiping out $1.3bn of inflows from the previous two months. Withdrawals from local debt have accelerated as well.With India heavily reliant on overseas capital to fund its current-account gap and corporate expansion, sustained outflows threaten to keep equities under pressure. Slowing earnings growth, elevated valuations and a lack of listed artificial intelligence-related names have already led to local shares trailing most emerging-market peers this year.There’s “growing pressure on the currency amid a combination of global uncertainty and India-specific capital flow challenges,” said Akshat Garg, head of research at Choice Wealth.**media[394252]**The steepest US tariffs in Asia have weighed on sentiment as traders await the two nations to finalise negotiations. The benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index slid 0.6% on Tuesday, and now trades about 1.4% off its November peak.The currency fell past the 91 per dollar mark on Tuesday, a new record low. The Reserve Bank of India may not strongly resist further weakness in the current environment, prioritising growth over currency defence, according to Barclays Plc.To be sure, a weaker rupee can benefit companies that earn a large share of revenue overseas, particularly technology exporters. A gauge of information-technology stocks has climbed about 14% since the end of September, coinciding with the period in which rupee losses deepened.For now, traders are bracing for more volatility as the rupee’s slide compounds concerns over trade, earnings and capital flows. Until the currency stabilises or global conditions turn more supportive, India’s long-awaited equity rebound may continue to struggle for traction.Equities face muted returns as weaker rupee, range-bound government bond yields, and modest earnings growth “favour selective sectoral exposure”, Dhananjay Sinha, head of research at Systematix Shares and Stocks Ltd wrote in a note.Amid rupee weakness and withdrawals by global funds, robust flows from local institutions have limited downside in the market. Net purchases by mutual funds and insurers crossed $80bn this year, compared with about $18bn of foreign fund outflows.“Support from retail flows has cushioned volatility but hasn’t resolved the underlying uncertainties,” Chanchal Agarwal, chief investment and strategy officer at Credence Family Office, said in an interview. 

Investors will seek clues about the health of the US economy in the coming week following worrisome labour market reports and technology-led turbulence that has knocked the stock market off record highs. The S&P 500 ended on Friday with a weekly decline after three straight weeks of gains. The benchmark index was last down about 2.4% from its all-time closing peak on October 28 even after a generally strong third-quarter earnings season for large US companies. This week, concerns about expensive equity valuations, especially for high-flying stocks linked to enthusiasm over artificial intelligence, were exacerbated by tepid jobs data, including a report that showed surging layoff announcements from US employers.Alternative data released by private sector bodies have become more important for investors because the US federal shutdown that began on October 1 has limited government releases."We're not getting a lot of economic data," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. "At current valuations and the kind of gains that we've seen... investors are just starting to be a little bit more cautious. I don't think that is bad, but it is coming at a time where there is growing uncertainty around the pace of growth in the economy."Investors were gauging whether the pullback in equities represented profit-taking and a healthy reset after an extended climb, or the start of a more severe slide. Fears that stocks are in an "AI bubble" have kept Wall Street on edge, with the benchmark S&P 500 up 14% year-to-date and 35% since its low for the year in April.The S&P 500 technology sector, which has led the bull market that began more than three years ago, has been hit harder in this latest drawdown, falling about 6% since last week. A series of reports on Thursday suggested deteriorating US labour market conditions. Data from workforce analytics company Revelio Labs showed 9,100 jobs were lost in October, while US employers' planned layoffs soared to over 153,000 last month, global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said. The Chicago Fed estimated that the US jobless rate likely edged up in October to the highest in four years.That data came a day after the ADP National Employment Report showed private employment rebounded by 42,000 jobs in October.The Challenger layoffs report, combined with the lack of government jobs data, "raises a red flag in terms of whether or not the labour market has really stabilised," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.Next week would have been a busy week of economic data, with government reports due on consumer and producer prices and retail sales. Those releases are poised to be delayed due to the shutdown. Investors will instead seek insight on the economy from traditionally more secondary reports, including the small business optimism index due to be released on Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business.As investors weighed the economic impact of the shutdown, the US transportation secretary warned on Friday the government could force airlines to cut up to 20% of flights if the shutdown did not end.The lack of government data is muddying the outlook for the Fed, which must decide whether to cut interest rates again at its next policy meeting in December. After the central bank eased by a quarter percentage point for a second straight meeting on October 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said another such reduction was not a foregone conclusion."The Fed needs help trying to figure out what's going on in the jobs market. They're getting seemingly conflicting signals and what they decide to do in December has ramifications obviously for the stock market," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services. Fed funds futures late on Friday were pricing in a roughly 65% chance of a rate cut in December. Before Powell's October comments, investors had viewed such a cut as almost a done deal.Investors were watching for developments that might suggest the end of the shutdown, which this week became the longest in US history. Focus was also on remaining high-profile quarterly reports, as a stellar earnings season in general nears a close. With 446 companies in the index having reported, 82.5% posted profits above analyst expectations, which would be the highest beat rate since the second quarter of 2021, LSEG IBES said on Friday. Reports due next week include Walt Disney and tech stalwart Cisco Systems. Those lead up to the quarterly report the following week from semiconductor firm Nvidia, the largest company in the world by market value that has symbolised investor enthusiasm for AI."I would just expect a little bit more volatility around technology leaders and technology as a whole heading into that Nvidia report," Saglimbene said.

The stock market didn’t crash this week. But after a seven-month spasm of retail-borne speculation, parts of the casino started clearing out.Cracks emerged across the risk-on landscape as bloated valuations and fresh doubts over the real-world payoff of artificial intelligence dragged US tech stocks to their worst week since April. Losses in megacaps like Palantir Technologies Inc and Oracle Corp. rippled through leveraged ETF and meme trades.The clearest signal of speculative distress: The crypto engine is sputtering. After a parabolic surge, Bitcoin and its peers have endured a violent unwinding that shattered confidence. This week, the coin slid repeatedly toward $100,000 amid a drought of ready buyers who had watched billions of dollars in leveraged positions get wiped out just weeks earlier — a shock the market has yet to recover from.Wall Street veterans have been warning for weeks that AI-fuelled tech valuations were outpacing fundamentals. That caution is now showing up in the same fast-moving trades where retail and institutional risk-taking had quietly converged — from upside-levered ETFs to crypto wrappers. Inflows haven’t vanished, but the payoff is no longer one-way.Peter Atwater, a professor of behavioural economics at the College of William & Mary, says the biggest blow yet to gambler spirits came Monday, when despite beating earnings forecasts Palantir saw its stock fall 8% the next day. The company, trading at a price-earnings multiple in the hundreds, is a bellwether for both hyperscaler tech and meme sentiment, he said.“It sits in the same neighbourhood as AI, as crypto,” he said. “Thematically, all of these different elements have the same intense-confidence correlation. These are all crowd favourites. So this is a crowd phenomenon.”The pullback isn’t universal. But for the first time in months, the speculative surge that once moved in near-lockstep is fragmenting. In equities, some high-octane trades are unravelling. A Meta Platforms Inc-linked ETF fell 8.5% this week and another focused on Palantir shed 22%. A Strategy Inc-minded product has slid more than 20%. Leveraged quantum and Super Micro Computer Inc. trades buckled, too.The group of tech giants known as the Magnificent Seven dropped 3% this week amid questions over their spending plans tied to AI infrastructure. A comment from OpenAI Inc’s CFO about the possibility of the government needing to “backstop” financing further grated nerves.“If you watch this week, there’s been a decided negative bias to what people are saying about AI,” Atwater said. “If we see the mood deteriorate, the scepticism should rise, the scrutiny should intensify. And those would be behaviours that ultimately limit the potential of the market to bounce.”Over the past week, indexes tracking meme stocks, non-profitable tech companies and recent IPOs all pulled back. An ETF focused on recent market entrants fell 5%, the most since September, while a basket of non-profitable names within the innovation space dropped 7%, the most since August.Meanwhile, more than $700mn has been pulled from digital-asset ETFs over the past week alone, including nearly $600mn from BlackRock’s Bitcoin fund and $370mn from its Ether counterpart. Solana and Dogecoin-linked products are down double-digits since their recent launches. Even the freshly minted MEME ETF — pitched as a retail sentiment play — is off more than 20% since its launch a month ago.“Investors are on edge,” said Stephen Kolano, chief investment officer at Integrated Partners. “Seems like the profit taking is coming from the things that have run the most since early April which is AI and anything connected with it which explains the pressure in” cryptocurrencies.That shift may matter beyond the meme complex. Retail risk appetite — from prediction markets and tokenised assets to Robinhood Markets Inc.’s fresh boom — helped fuel 2025’s bounce across broad markets despite stress on the tariff and labour market front. But now, with the gap between winners and losers rising and some risky trades draining capital, liquidity could be getting tighter at the edges.None of this signals a broader crash. The S&P 500 is off just 2% from recent highs. But for a crowd used to buying the everything-goes-up narrative, this week lands differently: Timing matters again. The tide may not be lifting all boats. Leverage cuts both ways.Bitcoin’s 15% slide over the past month is raising eyebrows not just for its scale, but its timing. A growing camp of Wall Street analysts now sees the token as a lead indicator for both high-volatility tech stocks and retail-driven liquidity. Among the chief concerns flagged in recent days is that so-called whales — investors who hold large, long-term positions — have been declining, according to Citi. This cohort has in the past tended to hold onto their hoards even during the roughest of declines.“Bitcoin has a knack for sniffing out things ahead of time,” said Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas. “It’s always trading, so there’s a lot of chances for it to be a price-discovery vehicle. It’s open all the time — like a 7-Eleven. And the people who trade Bitcoin are perpetually online and so plugged in.”The reversal is especially striking given the political momentum behind digital assets. Bitcoin’s early-year surge was powered in part by President Donald Trump’s campaign to rebrand the US as the crypto capital of the world. But after peaking near $4.4tn in October, the total market cap of digital tokens has since dropped nearly 20%, wiping out most of 2025’s gains. For traders betting that regulatory clarity would unleash a new supercycle, the speed of the comedown has been sobering.“There’s simply not enough new capital to offset locals exiting. Too many in the industry just can’t stomach another crypto cycle — they’ve had enough, both financially and emotionally,” Marex’s Ilan Solot wrote in a note this week. “For the uptrend to resume, the whales need to stop selling. Stabilising ETF flows would help too.”

The largest stock market crashes have occurred in September or October. The Panic of 1907 began in mid-October, the Wall Street crash of 1929 saw its biggest falls on 24 and 29 October, the ‘Black Monday’ crash of 1987 was on 19 October, while the collapse of Lehman Brothers that triggered the banking crisis occurred in September 2008.President Trump has made no secret of his desire for lower interest rates. Will he push them towards zero, and might this be one of the triggers for market corrections?Are we heading for a similar crash? By any conventional indicators, stock market valuations are overheated. The problem is that this has been the case for some months, and those ignoring the warning signs have profited.The investment boom in AI is believed by many to herald such a huge boost to business productivity that traditional indicators of company valuation are no longer valid – but of course the phrase ‘This time is different’ is itself a warning sign. It is the title of a book on investment bubbles and crashes, written by economists Carmen M Reinhart and Kenneth S Rogoff and published in 2009, shortly after the start of the financial crisis.There are two strong indicators that this time is really no different to earlier bubbles. The first is that at least some of the investment in AI may be misplaced. There is little doubt that the rapid development of highly powerful AI tools holds the potential for significant productivity gains. It is less certain, however, that the big bet on massively increasing the capacity of data centres in the quest for an ultra-high level of synthetic intelligence is going to pay off in a direct way.A study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in August reported that 95% of AI pilot schemes did not result in better business performance. In mid-September JP Morgan Asset Management warned that valuations in AI were ‘stretched’, such that only a small disappointment in earnings could prompt a sell-off. The scale of investment in data centres to power AI is in the order of $3tn, around half of which comes from the capital of big tech companies, but a high proportion is funded by private credit, which is comparatively opaque, and is linked to the banking system.It is a near-certainty that many venture capital-backed AI start-ups will fail, but the extent of this and the impact on the wider economy is difficult to gauge.Evidence is emerging of productivity gains from AI – but these emerge from smarter and more focused use of bespoke AI tools, allied to the most intelligent human direction. Small language models (SLMs) may be more effective than LLMs in many business applications, which is great news for those firms that get it right – but less so for the investors who have bet big on scaling up.It is all but inevitable that a major new technology will feature a bubble. It has occurred with railways in the 19th century, and dotcom firms and supportive infrastructure in the late 1990s. Even when the bubble bursts, it is only a serious problem for the wider economy if it affects the banking industry such that loans dry up for other parts of the economy, heralding a recession.The second major risk factor is the pro-cyclical behaviour of the President of the US in slashing interest rates and encouraging speculation. Just before the financial crash of 2007-08, Chuck Prince, then the CEO of Citibank, famously said that as long as the music is playing, you need to dance. President Donald Trump is now the one trying to keep the music playing.President Trump encourages stock market investment, and authorised the US government to purchase a 10% stake in the chip manufacturer Intel – an extraordinary decision.He has also pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, expressing a desire both for ultra-low rates and a weaker dollar. The official US interest rate was duly cut in mid-September, by 25 basis points, to 4-4.25%.It is unusual for interest rates to be reduced to very low levels in non-recessionary conditions. Inflation is not very high, but it is above the nominal target of 2% and in August it edged upwards to 2.9% from 2.7%. There are, however, indicators of credit delinquency and other signs of financial stress among some consumers.There is likely to be at least one more cut of the same amount before the end of 2025, and probably two. Nominally, the Federal Reserve is independent of the White House, but President Trump has made his desire for lower rates very public. The courts have so far paused his efforts to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Board. His own nominee for the board, Stephen Miran, has been approved.There is another risk factor: Less reliable economic statistics. In early August, President Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, complaining that the employment data, weaker than expected, were incorrect. In addition, budget cuts at the Bureau have meant a reduction in the data points that feed into the official statistics.The US is exhibiting some of the features more normally associated with emerging economies: A President over-reaching his authority, compromised independence of key institutions, concern over the accuracy of economic data. This does not mean we are about to witness economic meltdown and hyper-inflation in the US, given the depth and strength of its internal economy, but there are signs of weaker long-term stability.A near-certainty is the continued increase in US public sector debt, and erosion of the value of paper money. The gold price has risen from $2,600 per ounce less than a year ago to around $3,800 per ounce by late September. Gold now forms a greater proportion of central bank reserves than US Treasuries for the first time since 1996.As regards the investment bubble, is this time different? In many respects, no. Will there be a market crash in October? It is never possible to be certain, but there are many red warning signs.The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions.

Major indices on the US stock market ended today's trading session in the green. The S&P 500 index rose by 32.05 points, or 0.47%, closing at 6,662.84 points. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite gained 156.30 points, or 0.69%, finishing at 22,625.48 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw a notable increase, adding 165.45 points, or 0.36%, to close at 46,315.77 points.

Saudi Arabia’s battered stock market is looking increasingly attractive to foreign investors because of rock-bottom valuations and bets that the oil price won’t drop much further.Investors from beyond the Arabian Gulf accounted for 41% of total Saudi equities buying in the week ended August 28, one of the highest ratios on record, according to Saudi stock exchange data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.The flows signal that a rush of reforms making it easier for foreigners to buy Saudi stocks is working. For the time being, however, risks still have the upper hand with the Tadawul All Share Index down 11% year to date and domestic investors on the retreat, along with crude prices.Nishit Lakhotia, head of research at SICO Bank, said stock investors are currently pricing in a “worse-case scenario” for the Saudi market, which he expects to bottom out shortly, unless oil drops below $60 a barrel — which would amount to a roughly 10% drop from current levels.“We believe the momentum is still there in the economy, which does not warrant such depressed valuations,” he said. “While it’s hard to predict when exactly the market can turn, there will likely be a point — sooner than later — when smart investors will start buying.”The slump has made Saudi stocks look relatively attractive, with the benchmark index near the lowest price-to-earnings multiple in more than five years. Junaid Ansari, director of investment strategy and research at Kamco Investment Co, expects a sharp turnaround in sentiment from the fourth quarter, when investors start making allocations for 2026.“The Saudi market is an oversold market,” said Ansari. While foreigners have largely been net buyers, “the sellers are mainly institutions in Saudi Arabia which we believe are selling to focus on other investment opportunities in the Kingdom,” he said.Nevertheless, the weak oil market is weighing down Saudi assets. Brent crude is trading around $66 per barrel, well below the nation’s fiscal breakeven price of $94, according to Bloomberg Economics. If domestic investments by the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund are included, the figure rises to $111.While foreigners accounted for about 35% of all Saudi stock purchases in August, continuing a strong trend, daily turnover on the market has dropped to the lowest level since 2023. This means that international investors are grabbing a bigger slice of a smaller pie.Still, the gloom over the kingdom’s stocks may be over-hyped, especially as a negative perception of earnings is in large part based on giants, such as Saudi Arabian Oil Company and Saudi Basic Industries Corp.Excluding Aramco and Sabic, Saudi stocks are showing roughly 7% profit growth, Kamco’s Ansari said. Even as the Tadawul index has declined, owners of Saudi National Bank and Saudi Telecom Co shares have seen 11% and 13% returns, respectively, so far this year.“Although earnings growth for 2025 and 2026 is among the lowest across emerging markets, valuations have become more attractive,” said Nenad Dinic, an emerging-markets equity strategist at Bank Julius Baer & Co Ltd.