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Turkish inflation cooled more than expected in November, clearing a path for the central bank to deliver a more sizeable interest-rate cut next week.Annual price growth slowed to 31.1% last month, the national statistics office said Wednesday, from 32.9% in October. The print was lower than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey with the median forecast 31.6%.Monthly prices meanwhile, eased significantly to 0.9%, from 2.6% in October. This is the first time since May 2023 that monthly prices came in below a rate of 1%. A decline in food prices contributed to a smaller reading in November — a correction to the very sharp increases in previous months, said QNB Bank AS chief economist Erkin Isik.Turkish banking index rose as much as 1.6% in Istanbul trading after the data, while the lira was little changed at 42.45 per the US dollar as of 10.47am local time.“Turkiye’s softer-than-expected November inflation does little to alter the still-elevated medium-term outlook. Even so, the central bank is likely to read the downside surprise as support for its easing cycle — which we expect it to pursue in measured steps,” says Selva Bahar Baziki, economist, Bloomberg Economics.Wednesday’s inflation readings will play an important role in determining expectations on how sizeable of a rate cut the central bank will deliver when it meets on December 11. Monetary policymakers last reduced rates by 100 basis points — slowing the pace — to 39.5% in October, from a peak of 50%.“We maintain our forecast for a 100bp cut, but, if anything, the risks are skewed towards a bigger move,” said Nicholas Farr, emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics, in a note.Henrik Gullberg, macro strategist at Coex Partners, said the data could prompt the central bank to cut more than the 100 basis points they delivered in October. “But with risks of a bit of a bounce in December inflation, I think it will not be a return to the 250 basis points we saw in September or the 300 basis points in July.”QNB’s Isik calculated the main inflation trend, a metric closely monitored by the central bank, remaining around 2%, with no improvement from previous months in November. “We don’t expect the central bank to increase the pace of rate cuts” from October, he said.Turkiye’s economy slowed more than expected in the third quarter in annual terms, according to data released on Monday, while expanding more than anticipated on a quarterly basis. That’s created a confusing outlook though some economists suggest the bank will focus on the headline figure, further fuelling it to continue with rate cuts. 

Talk of the K-shaped economy is brewing once again. The moniker first gained traction in 2020 to describe the divergence between how rich and poor Americans were experiencing the pandemic recovery. Now, with consumption increasingly concentrated in the top echelons of wage earners, economists are concerned that the US economy finds itself in a top-heavy, unstable state.Federal Reserve officials, who have been trying to navigate between supporting an economy where hiring has weakened and putting some pressure on demand to cool still-high inflation, discussed this bifurcation when they met in October. At the time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he was seeing evidence of the split. Growing frustrations around the cost of living reverberated through the most recent US elections on November 4, swaying a number of high-profile races toward Democrats. What is a K-shaped economy? A K-shaped economy is one where two groups experience increasingly different circumstances. While higher-income consumers, who are benefiting from stock-market and home-price gains, continue to spend, lower-income individuals are cutting back as inflation eats into their spending power and the job market tightens. Over the past year, the ranks of those at the bottom of the K have increased as more Americans struggle to stay afloat. Is the US in a K-shaped economy right now? The US has experienced rising inequality for decades, but the difference in spending patterns among consumers that has unfolded in the past year is raising concern among some economists that the current balance might ultimately lead to a downturn. Consumer spending, which drives two-thirds of US economic activity, is more concentrated among the wealthiest 10% of Americans than ever before. About half of all spending is fueled by those earners, and the top 20% account for almost two-thirds of all spending. The bottom 80%, which made up nearly 42% of spending before the pandemic, now accounts for just 37% of it, according to Moody’s Analytics. Why is the lower part of the ‘K’ getting larger? Lower- and middle-income Americans have seen their spending power diminish as inflation in everything from groceries to home prices continues to rise. At the same time, their wage increases are barely keeping up with rising prices and, for the first time in Bank of America Institute data going back to 2016, wage gains for higher-income households are outpacing those of their low- and middle-income counterparts this year. What are the economic implications? Because so much of the wealth accumulation of the past few years has been driven by a surging stock market, economists fear that even a moderate drop in stocks could drive a rapid pullback in spending by the top 20%. That could reverberate to the rest of the economy, where many Americans already feel financially stressed, and lead to a recession. How is it shaping the political debate? Inflation was already a major driver of the 2024 presidential election, and the broader concept of affordability this year catapulted candidates including New York City’s Zohran Mamdani to victory. Mamdani centered his mayoral campaign on the housing crisis and child care costs, helping the young, little-known state lawmaker, a democratic socialist, win office in a city synonymous with capitalism. In New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill won her bid for governor campaigning in part on curbing rising electricity prices. And Virginia elected Abigail Spanberger as governor on a platform centered around the rising cost of living. Is a K-shaped economy different from a Jenga tower economy? Economist Peter Atwater, who in 2020 popularized the idea of a K-shaped economy, said the current state of the US economy more resembles “a top-heavy Jenga tower,” a reference to the game of stacked wooden blocks where players attempt to remove one block at a time and place it at the top of the tower without collapsing the entire structure. What is the Federal Reserve’s role? Federal Reserve officials often say that their main policy tool, the setting of interest rates, is too blunt to address inequality. It’s something better left to elected officials, who can enact policies to specifically tackle the problems that contribute to the income gap.Some experts take issue with that point of view. Economist Claudia Sahm argues that interest rates actually do contribute to inequality and could therefore help unwind some of the bifurcation. She points to research showing that spending by low-income consumers nearly flatlined in 2022, when the Fed started aggressively raising rates to try to bring down inflation. Those rate hikes led to higher credit-card rates, which in turn hurt low-income consumers’ ability to spend disproportionately. 

Most countries have more overweight than under-nourished people, and the problem appears to be getting worse. What can be done? By Fahad Badar One of the success stories of economic development in recent years has been the reduction in absolute poverty.The proportion of those living on less than $1.90 a day, adjusted for inflation, has fallen from around 20% in 2000 to below 10% today. But there is a problem with increasing living standards: Rising obesity. An estimated 5mn deaths per year are linked with being overweight, 20 times the rate of deaths owing to under-nourishment.In richer countries, obesity is most significant in poorer neighbourhoods, while in emerging economies it is a middle-class phenomenon. Some countries feature the ‘double epidemic’ of underweight people in the poorest households and obesity among many on middle incomes.The global distribution is uneven. Polynesia and the Middle East feature some of the highest rates of obesity, while the leanest include France, China and some central African countries. But it’s growing. The global rate of obesity has doubled since 1990, and the rate among children has quadrupled, according to the medical journal The Lancet.The latest statistics published by the World Health Organisation show that the GCC countries account for the highest prevalence of obesity. Among children aged under five, the proportion of those who are overweight increased from 3.5% in 2000 to 7.6% in 2020. Among those aged 5–19, GCC countries had the highest prevalence of overweight children in 2016.Among adults, obesity rates are more than double the global average: 38% in Kuwait, 35% in Qatar, 35% in Saudi Arabia, and 32% in the United Arab Emirates. Health problems associated with obesity include elevated risks of heart disease, type-2 diabetes, cancers, mental health issues, and muscular and joint problems.In the UK, the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated that the annual cost of obesity was around £32bn ($42bn), even after accounting for the shorter life expectancy of overweight people. The direct and indirect costs included health care, social care and inactivity at work.Much attention has been focused on the role of ultra-processed foods (UPFs), which make up more than half of the calorie intake in the US and the UK. UPFs such as crisps, snacks and frozen pizzas are low on nutrients, high in palatability, and often cheap. In one controlled study, people on UPFs consumed more than another group on a diet of foods with minimal processing; they also ate more quickly, and gained weight.There seems to be an additional health risk caused by the processing itself. In one study by University College London, there was more harm from ultra-processed foods compared with non-processed foods that had the same proportion of fat, sugar and salt.In October this year, the United Kingdom introduced strict curbs on advertising foods with high fat, sugar and salt content, and banned promotions to encourage consumption of them such as ‘buy one get one free’. One problem with health warnings, taxes, or advertising curbs on UPFs is the definition.Some processed foods with relatively high fat and sugar content, such as yoghurt, have more positive nutritional value than crisps or soda. Manufacturers may adjust ingredients to just below the threshold defined as ‘high’. There have been major developments in pharmaceutical products that reduce obesity.The science behind these treatments lies in the discovery of how the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1, or GLP-1, increases the production of insulin, and slows the production of glucagon – which increases blood sugar levels. It also slows the rate of gastric emptying.Synthetic versions of GLP-1 are used in the branded drugs Wegovy and Ozempic which have become blockbusters. They have helped many people lose weight, but there are side effects, such as nausea. Some users have lost lean muscle as well. They are expensive, although in November, President Donald Trump announced a plan that will reduce the cost of Wegovy and Ozempic from around $1,000 a month to $350 for US citizens. They may also hold the potential to treat other conditions.This year the US Food and Drug Administration approved prescribing semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, to prevent heart disease in patients with type-2 diabetes, and to treat scar tissue on the liver. It could be argued that obesity is a good problem to have, as an indication that absolute poverty has fallen.The alternative argument is that a diet high in processed foods is similar to cigarette smoking, and a priority for policy makers. Investing in preventive actions to combat obesity is essential to improve public health and reduce long-term healthcare costs.By implementing targeted interventions across different age groups, from promoting healthy eating and physical activity in schools to workplace wellness programmes and community-based lifestyle initiatives for adults, we can reduce the incidence of obesity and its related chronic diseases. In parallel, establishing and implementing comprehensive national policies on the consumption of healthy oils and fats, reduction of salt levels in foods, effective taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages, clear nutrition labelling, responsible food marketing (especially to children), and support for breastfeeding in line with WHO guidelines and GCC tax regulations, are critical steps to creating a healthier food environment.Moreover, strengthening human, logistic, and institutional capacities for healthy diet surveillance, monitoring, and evaluation, with WHO support, will ensure that these measures are effectively implemented, sustained, and adapted to national needs.Such proactive actions not only enhance the quality of life but also significantly decrease the national burden of healthcare expenditures associated with obesity-related conditions.The author is a Qatari banker, with many years of experience in the banking sector in senior positions.

Fed widely expected to cut interest rate amid moderate inflationBank of Japan likely to maintain current policy rateTrump set to meet Xi at APEC summitThe US dollar rose to a more-than-two-week high against the yen on Monday at the start of a packed week of global trade negotiations and central bank meetings.The Australian dollar climbed as signs of progress in trade talks between the US and China bolstered demand for higher-yielding assets. The Japanese yen slid to record lows against the euro and Swiss franc.US President Donald Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday, where the pair will decide on the framework of a trade deal hashed out over the weekend. And while Trump is travelling in Asia, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its policy interest rate after moderate inflation figures on Friday."Looking ahead we think that dollar firmness is likely to remain in the near term," Mahjabeen Zaman, head of foreign exchange research at ANZ, said on a podcast. "Fed cuts are fully priced in for October and December meetings. So if anything, any cautious communication from the Fed would likely be more supportive for the US dollar."The dollar rose 0.1% to 153.03 yen and touched 153.26, the strongest since October 10. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against select peers, was little changed at 98.90.The euro was steady at $1.163, while the common currency strengthened to as high as 178.13 yen, an all-time high. The Swiss franc reached 192.27 yen, also a record.Sterling strengthened 0.1% to $1.3327. The Aussie gained 0.4% versus the greenback to $0.6541.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said trade talks on the sidelines of a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur have eliminated the possibility of the US imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1.Bessent also said he expects China to delay implementation of its rare earth minerals and magnets licensing regime by a year while the policy is reconsidered."We've obviously had a pretty risk-positive start to the week, given the weekend news on the various trade discussions," said Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange research at National Australia Bank. "At the moment, I'd say positive risk sentiment is still, at the margin, playing negatively for the US dollar."Trump and Xi are due to meet on Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, to sign off on trade terms. Ahead of that, Trump visits Japan from Monday and will hold a summit the following day with the nation's new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi.The Fed is widely expected to lower its current benchmark interest rate of 4% to 4.25% by another quarter percentage point when it decides on policy on Wednesday, a view supported by tamer-than-estimated inflation data on Friday.With that rate move already factored into asset prices, markets are likely to be more sensitive to any forward-looking language from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with the central bank expected to cut rates further at its next meeting in December.In Japan, the central bank is likely to debate this week whether conditions are ripe to resume rate hikes as worries about a tariff-induced recession ease.Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate steady at 0.5% at the October 29-30 meeting. Prime Minister Takaichi has called for BOJ cooperation in achieving inflation driven more by gains in wages.

The dollar drifted higher against its major peers on Thursday as traders waited for the delayed release of US consumer inflation data on Friday, while digesting trade threats between Washington and Beijing. The yen weakened to a one-week low against the dollar as the market awaited details of a big stimulus package from new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, widely viewed as a fiscal and monetary dove. Sterling remained under pressure after British data on Wednesday showed consumer inflation held steady at 3.8% last month, defying economists' estimates for it to accelerate. The US dollar index, which measures the currency against the yen, sterling, euro and three other peers, edged up 0.5% to 98.979. The dollar added 0.17% to 152.21 yen, and earlier touched 152.26 yen for the first time since Oct. 14. Sterling sagged 0.09% to $1.3345. The euro eased 0.06% to $1.1604.

Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, weighed down by a firmer dollar as investors looked forward to key US inflation data later this week for more cues on the interest rate path. Spot gold slipped 0.3% to $4,082.95 per ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.8% to $4,097.40 per ounce. Prices have surged about 56% since January, touching an all-time high of $4,381.21 per ounce on Monday. The rally has been driven by a mix of economic uncertainty, expectations of interest rate cuts, and strong buying by central banks across the world. Spot silver fell 0.4% to $48.31 per ounce, extending its decline after reaching record highs earlier this month. Platinum slipped 1.4% to $1,598.65 per ounce, while palladium also dropped 1.4% to $1,438.47 per ounce.

Gold prices extended their decline on Wednesday amid profit-taking following recent record highs, as investors awaited key US inflation data this week for further indications on the Federal Reserve's potential path toward interest rate cuts. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,113.54 per ounce, after plunging more than 5% on Tuesday — its sharpest daily drop since August 2020. Meanwhile, US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.5% to $4,129.80 per ounce. Despite the recent correction, gold prices have surged about 56% so far this year, hitting an all-time high of $4,381.21 on Monday. The rally has been driven by heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, growing expectations of interest rate reductions, and sustained central bank demand for the yellow metal. Among other precious metals, spot silver fell 0.9% to $48.29 per ounce, platinum dropped 1.1% to $1,534.44, while palladium was steady at $1,406.76 per ounce.

The Sultanate of Oman's consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.1% in September 2025 compared to the same month of 2024 (base year 2018), according to data released by the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI). The average inflation rate during the period from January to September 2025 increased by 0.8%, the data showed. The report indicated that the miscellaneous goods and services group recorded the highest price increase, with an average inflation rate of 6.4% during the first nine months of 2025 and a year-on-year rise of 7.6% in September. This was followed by the transport group, which rose 4.5%, and the restaurants and hotels group, which increased 2.6%. The health group recorded a rise of 0.8%, while prices in the clothing and footwear group went up 0.4%, and the education group edged slightly higher by 0.1%. Prices in the housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels group, along with the communications and tobacco groups, remained stable without any significant changes. At the governorate level, Al Dhahirah recorded the highest inflation rate at 1.9% by the end of September 2025 compared to the same period of 2024, while Al Wusta registered the lowest rate at 0.4%.

His Excellency the Minister of Finance Ali bin Ahmed al-Kuwari participated in the meeting of Finance Ministers, Central Bank Governors, and Heads of Regional Financial Institutions from the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The meeting was chaired by Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and was held on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings, now being held in Washington, DC. The meeting discussed key strategic issues related to economic growth in the region, in addition to future outlooks and fiscal policy requirements to combat inflation. It also addressed sustainable financing strategies, ways to stimulate economic growth, and the promotion of innovation in financial development.Regional and global challenges were also reviewed, particularly the risks of rising inflation rates and food insecurity. The participants stressed the importance of continuing efforts to adapt to the current financial and economic developments.The meeting was held within the framework of enhancing regional cooperation and the exchange of insights among financial and economic policymakers, with the aim of supporting economic stability and achieving sustainable development across the region.

South Korea's consumer prices grew by more than 2% in September, returning to the 2% range after one month, largely due to rising prices of essential food items, data showed Thursday. Consumer prices, a key gauge of inflation, increased 2.1 % from a year earlier last month, South Korea's (Yonhap) news agency said, citing data from the Ministry of Data and Statistics. Inflation had remained above the Bank of Korea's 2% target for four consecutive months through April before slowing to 1.9% in May. It then climbed again, staying above 2% in both June and July, before slowing down to 1.7% in August. The service sector continued its upward trend, posting a 2.2% on-year gain. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, went up 2% in September, accelerating from August's 1.3% growth.

The US dollar fell on Tuesday as investors braced for a possible US government shutdown that would delay release of the crucial jobs report this week, while the Australian dollar rose after the central bank struck a cautious tone on inflation. The Aussie gained 0.49% to $0.66075 after the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady as expected. The broader US currency index dropped 9.7% this year, at 97.928. The euro was a shade lower at $1.172, while sterling was at $1.3436. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were little changed at 4.142%, after dropping 4.6 bps on Monday. They have dropped 8.3 bps for the month.

Australia's annual inflation rate rose to its highest level in 12 months in August, with headline inflation climbing to 3%, dashing expectations of an interest rate cut this month.Official data released Wednesday showed the monthly consumer price index (CPI) exceeded forecasts after headline inflation had reached 2.8% in the 12 months to July.However, trimmed mean annual inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) preferred gauge of core inflation, eased slightly to 2.6% in August from 2.7% the previous month.The RBA had anticipated a sharp pickup in inflation following the expiry of federal government electricity rebates, which left households paying the full cost of energy bills.Michelle Marquardt, head of prices statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, said the annual increase in electricity costs was mainly driven by higher living expenses faced by households in Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania in August 2025 compared with the same month in 2024.The inflation data, combined with last week's labor market report showing continued tightness in employment conditions, is expected to prompt the RBA's monetary policy board to keep its policy settings unchanged at its next meeting, maintaining a cautious stance on interest rates.