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Fed widely expected to cut interest rate amid moderate inflationBank of Japan likely to maintain current policy rateTrump set to meet Xi at APEC summitThe US dollar rose to a more-than-two-week high against the yen on Monday at the start of a packed week of global trade negotiations and central bank meetings.The Australian dollar climbed as signs of progress in trade talks between the US and China bolstered demand for higher-yielding assets. The Japanese yen slid to record lows against the euro and Swiss franc.US President Donald Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday, where the pair will decide on the framework of a trade deal hashed out over the weekend. And while Trump is travelling in Asia, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its policy interest rate after moderate inflation figures on Friday."Looking ahead we think that dollar firmness is likely to remain in the near term," Mahjabeen Zaman, head of foreign exchange research at ANZ, said on a podcast. "Fed cuts are fully priced in for October and December meetings. So if anything, any cautious communication from the Fed would likely be more supportive for the US dollar."The dollar rose 0.1% to 153.03 yen and touched 153.26, the strongest since October 10. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against select peers, was little changed at 98.90.The euro was steady at $1.163, while the common currency strengthened to as high as 178.13 yen, an all-time high. The Swiss franc reached 192.27 yen, also a record.Sterling strengthened 0.1% to $1.3327. The Aussie gained 0.4% versus the greenback to $0.6541.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said trade talks on the sidelines of a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur have eliminated the possibility of the US imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1.Bessent also said he expects China to delay implementation of its rare earth minerals and magnets licensing regime by a year while the policy is reconsidered."We've obviously had a pretty risk-positive start to the week, given the weekend news on the various trade discussions," said Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange research at National Australia Bank. "At the moment, I'd say positive risk sentiment is still, at the margin, playing negatively for the US dollar."Trump and Xi are due to meet on Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, to sign off on trade terms. Ahead of that, Trump visits Japan from Monday and will hold a summit the following day with the nation's new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi.The Fed is widely expected to lower its current benchmark interest rate of 4% to 4.25% by another quarter percentage point when it decides on policy on Wednesday, a view supported by tamer-than-estimated inflation data on Friday.With that rate move already factored into asset prices, markets are likely to be more sensitive to any forward-looking language from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with the central bank expected to cut rates further at its next meeting in December.In Japan, the central bank is likely to debate this week whether conditions are ripe to resume rate hikes as worries about a tariff-induced recession ease.Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate steady at 0.5% at the October 29-30 meeting. Prime Minister Takaichi has called for BOJ cooperation in achieving inflation driven more by gains in wages.

The dollar drifted higher against its major peers on Thursday as traders waited for the delayed release of US consumer inflation data on Friday, while digesting trade threats between Washington and Beijing. The yen weakened to a one-week low against the dollar as the market awaited details of a big stimulus package from new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, widely viewed as a fiscal and monetary dove. Sterling remained under pressure after British data on Wednesday showed consumer inflation held steady at 3.8% last month, defying economists' estimates for it to accelerate. The US dollar index, which measures the currency against the yen, sterling, euro and three other peers, edged up 0.5% to 98.979. The dollar added 0.17% to 152.21 yen, and earlier touched 152.26 yen for the first time since Oct. 14. Sterling sagged 0.09% to $1.3345. The euro eased 0.06% to $1.1604.

Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, weighed down by a firmer dollar as investors looked forward to key US inflation data later this week for more cues on the interest rate path. Spot gold slipped 0.3% to $4,082.95 per ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.8% to $4,097.40 per ounce. Prices have surged about 56% since January, touching an all-time high of $4,381.21 per ounce on Monday. The rally has been driven by a mix of economic uncertainty, expectations of interest rate cuts, and strong buying by central banks across the world. Spot silver fell 0.4% to $48.31 per ounce, extending its decline after reaching record highs earlier this month. Platinum slipped 1.4% to $1,598.65 per ounce, while palladium also dropped 1.4% to $1,438.47 per ounce.

Gold prices extended their decline on Wednesday amid profit-taking following recent record highs, as investors awaited key US inflation data this week for further indications on the Federal Reserve's potential path toward interest rate cuts. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,113.54 per ounce, after plunging more than 5% on Tuesday — its sharpest daily drop since August 2020. Meanwhile, US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.5% to $4,129.80 per ounce. Despite the recent correction, gold prices have surged about 56% so far this year, hitting an all-time high of $4,381.21 on Monday. The rally has been driven by heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, growing expectations of interest rate reductions, and sustained central bank demand for the yellow metal. Among other precious metals, spot silver fell 0.9% to $48.29 per ounce, platinum dropped 1.1% to $1,534.44, while palladium was steady at $1,406.76 per ounce.

The Sultanate of Oman's consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.1% in September 2025 compared to the same month of 2024 (base year 2018), according to data released by the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI). The average inflation rate during the period from January to September 2025 increased by 0.8%, the data showed. The report indicated that the miscellaneous goods and services group recorded the highest price increase, with an average inflation rate of 6.4% during the first nine months of 2025 and a year-on-year rise of 7.6% in September. This was followed by the transport group, which rose 4.5%, and the restaurants and hotels group, which increased 2.6%. The health group recorded a rise of 0.8%, while prices in the clothing and footwear group went up 0.4%, and the education group edged slightly higher by 0.1%. Prices in the housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels group, along with the communications and tobacco groups, remained stable without any significant changes. At the governorate level, Al Dhahirah recorded the highest inflation rate at 1.9% by the end of September 2025 compared to the same period of 2024, while Al Wusta registered the lowest rate at 0.4%.

His Excellency the Minister of Finance Ali bin Ahmed al-Kuwari participated in the meeting of Finance Ministers, Central Bank Governors, and Heads of Regional Financial Institutions from the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The meeting was chaired by Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and was held on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings, now being held in Washington, DC. The meeting discussed key strategic issues related to economic growth in the region, in addition to future outlooks and fiscal policy requirements to combat inflation. It also addressed sustainable financing strategies, ways to stimulate economic growth, and the promotion of innovation in financial development.Regional and global challenges were also reviewed, particularly the risks of rising inflation rates and food insecurity. The participants stressed the importance of continuing efforts to adapt to the current financial and economic developments.The meeting was held within the framework of enhancing regional cooperation and the exchange of insights among financial and economic policymakers, with the aim of supporting economic stability and achieving sustainable development across the region.

South Korea's consumer prices grew by more than 2% in September, returning to the 2% range after one month, largely due to rising prices of essential food items, data showed Thursday. Consumer prices, a key gauge of inflation, increased 2.1 % from a year earlier last month, South Korea's (Yonhap) news agency said, citing data from the Ministry of Data and Statistics. Inflation had remained above the Bank of Korea's 2% target for four consecutive months through April before slowing to 1.9% in May. It then climbed again, staying above 2% in both June and July, before slowing down to 1.7% in August. The service sector continued its upward trend, posting a 2.2% on-year gain. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, went up 2% in September, accelerating from August's 1.3% growth.

The US dollar fell on Tuesday as investors braced for a possible US government shutdown that would delay release of the crucial jobs report this week, while the Australian dollar rose after the central bank struck a cautious tone on inflation. The Aussie gained 0.49% to $0.66075 after the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady as expected. The broader US currency index dropped 9.7% this year, at 97.928. The euro was a shade lower at $1.172, while sterling was at $1.3436. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were little changed at 4.142%, after dropping 4.6 bps on Monday. They have dropped 8.3 bps for the month.

Australia's annual inflation rate rose to its highest level in 12 months in August, with headline inflation climbing to 3%, dashing expectations of an interest rate cut this month.Official data released Wednesday showed the monthly consumer price index (CPI) exceeded forecasts after headline inflation had reached 2.8% in the 12 months to July.However, trimmed mean annual inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) preferred gauge of core inflation, eased slightly to 2.6% in August from 2.7% the previous month.The RBA had anticipated a sharp pickup in inflation following the expiry of federal government electricity rebates, which left households paying the full cost of energy bills.Michelle Marquardt, head of prices statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, said the annual increase in electricity costs was mainly driven by higher living expenses faced by households in Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania in August 2025 compared with the same month in 2024.The inflation data, combined with last week's labor market report showing continued tightness in employment conditions, is expected to prompt the RBA's monetary policy board to keep its policy settings unchanged at its next meeting, maintaining a cautious stance on interest rates.

Qatar National Bank (QNB) predicted that upcoming US Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions could lead to a mild stagflation scenario, where growth slows while inflation remains above target. In its weekly report, QNB noted that the current US administration has clearly focused on monetary policy and has urged the Federal Reserve to deliver large rate cuts and adopt a more flexible stance. The report explained that monetary policy decisions are normally based on forecasts of key macroeconomic variables and a careful analysis of how interest-rate changes affect economic activity and prices, with the Federal Open Market Committee typically carrying out this process through extensive technical deliberations free from political pressure. The bank observed that new economic trends has unsettled financial markets, causing significant volatility as investors try to determine the appropriate level of interest rates for pricing assets in the new macroeconomic environment. US interest rates and Treasury yields were said to provide important information on macroeconomic expectations, particularly through the real yield curve (the gap between yields on 10-year and 2-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). A wider gap indicates expectations of weaker short-term growth relative to the long term. This gap has widened in 2025 even though long-term real yields have remained stable, suggesting that longer-term growth expectations have not changed while near-term activity is expected to weaken. Recent US labor-market data were highlighted as evidence of this slowdown, showing slower job creation and a gradual rise in unemployment in recent months. Consensus forecasts for real GDP growth have also been revised downward, with expectations for 2025 and 2026 reduced by about 0.5 percentage points to 1.5% and 1.7% respectively, levels approaching the weakest annual growth since the post-COVID recession. The report stressed that real interest rates remain highly restrictive. With the federal funds rate upper bound at 4.5% and inflation at roughly 2.7%, the real rate is close to 1.8%, well above the estimated neutral rate of roughly 0.5-1.0 percentage points. QNB argued that current rates are overly tight and need adjustment to avoid a sharp growth slowdown. Short-term Treasury yields were described as closely tracking market expectations for the Fed's policy path. The two-year Treasury yield has fallen about 60 basis points this year (from a January peak of 4.40% to roughly 3.80%) signaling expectations of a substantial rate-cutting cycle. Markets now anticipate two 25-basis-point cuts by the end of 2025, followed by additional reductions through 2026, which would bring the policy rate down to around 3% by the end of that year. QNB concluded that these indicators point to a moderate stagflationary environment, with inflation staying above the Fed's 2% target even as growth weakens. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee were reported to have acknowledged a shift in the balance of risks toward slower growth, with markets expecting a policy-easing cycle that lowers the federal funds rate to roughly 3% by the end of 2026.

A spate of inflation data confronts US stock investors in the coming week as markets grapple with fresh uncertainty over tariffs and government bond yields, while equities hover at lofty valuations. The benchmark S&P 500 index closed at a record high on Thursday despite an uneven start to September, which has been the worst month for stocks on average over the past 35 years. Stocks were pulling back on Friday after the monthly US employment report showed job growth weakened in August."September has been known to see a wearing down of the sentiment picture," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. At the same time, he said, "stocks aren't pricing in a lot of risks right now. They look fully valued."The monthly US consumer price index on Thursday highlights next week's economic releases, with investors focused on signals from the inflation data about the prospects for interest rate cuts and the fallout from tariffs on prices. Following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks late last month that flagged rising risks to employment, markets have been widely expecting the central bank to lower rates for the first time in nine months at its September 16-17 meeting.Investors bet on even more accelerated easing after the weak jobs report.Fed Funds futures were baking in a 90% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the meeting, and a roughly 10% chance of a heftier half-percentage point cut, LSEG data as of Friday afternoon showed.Only a CPI number that comes in "egregiously higher" than estimates could dent assumptions of imminent monetary policy easing, said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth.About 70 basis points of easing, or nearly three standard cuts, are projected by December, according to the futures data.Recently, "the prospect of the Fed cutting has been the overwhelming factor driving equity sentiment to be more positive," Miskin said. "And so if that reverses, then it could be problematic for equities."Along with CPI, a Wednesday report on producer prices could also reveal impacts from import tariffs. Last month's PPI data showed US producer prices increased by the most in three years in July as the costs of goods and services surged. Tariffs and their economic implications were the main risk facing markets earlier this year, but other factors such as questions over Fed independence and caution about the artificial intelligence trade have been more prominent recently.The issue returned to the fore this week after a US appeals court ruled that most of President Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal. While the Trump administration has asked the US Supreme Court to hear a bid to preserve the sweeping tariffs, the ruling injected fresh uncertainty for markets."It felt as though the fog of trade war was clearing, and now we're just back into the thick of it," Hogan said. "And that doesn't help corporate America make decisions, consumers make decisions, and investors make decisions."The potential of lost tariff revenue exacerbating the US fiscal deficit was one factor investors said may have driven long-dated US government debt yields sharply higher at the start of the week, moves that also followed big jumps in yields in the UK and other regions. While long-dated yields globally have since calmed, their spikes were cited as contributing to stock weakness initially during the week.The 30-year US Treasury yield this week hit 5% for the first time in over a month. That yield level has been "problematic" for risk appetite over the past few years, said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial. The long-bond yield was last around 4.78%, with yields falling broadly on Friday after the jobs data.The S&P 500 was up about 10% so far in 2025, helped recently by a solid second-quarter earnings season. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio climbed to 22.4 times, based on earnings estimates for the next 12 months, a valuation well above its long-term average of 15.9, according to LSEG Datastream."Investors face ongoing threats from trade and tariff unknowns as well as potential economic releases that could ultimately challenge elevated stock valuations," Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, wrote in a commentary."That said, investors have been navigating those dynamics for months, and stocks have continued to grind higher."

Turkiye’s central bank Governor Fatih Karahan struck an optimistic note on the inflation outlook following worse-than-expected data and market turmoil, suggesting investors may have been too hasty in reducing their forecasts for interest-rate cuts.An unexpected court order against the main opposition party on Tuesday which triggered a broad selloff in Turkish assets was followed by the release of higher-than-expected August inflation data the next morning. The combination had Wall Street banks swiftly redrawing their predictions for a new rate-cutting cycle, anticipating a less severe reduction when policymakers meet on September 11.But in an interview with Bloomberg News on Thursday, Karahan said the breakdown of August’s inflation numbers and second-quarter growth showed that demand-driven price pressures are easing.“Though headline GDP growth was higher than forecasts, the components of the GDP data showed that demand conditions continue to support disinflation,” he said in Istanbul. While overall quarterly growth was an above-forecast 1.6%, Karahan highlighted that private consumption has come in negative for two consecutive quarters.Similarly, while August inflation which slowed to 33% from 33.5% the prior month was above expectations, Karahan emphasised the main indicators of the underlying trend offered “a healthier assessment.” Those show that price rises are continuing to ease, he said, while adding that the central bank is keeping a close eye on the impact of increases in rent and education on inflation expectations.The BIST-100 Index and banking stocks were slightly up on Friday morning at 10.22am. The lira was trading 0.2% lower against the US dollar at 41.25.The central bank reduced rates by more than anticipated in July, to 43% from 46%, the first cut in four months, and signalled at the time that more was to come.But a court order to remove the Istanbul administration of Turkiye’s main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, unnerved investors. That ruling which precedes a number of other legal decisions related to the opposition coincided with the disappointing economic reports, causing Wall Street banks to predict a slower pace of interest-rate cuts.Asked whether the central bank’s views on inflation are influenced by the overall uncertainty, Karahan said: “We haven’t allowed for the deterioration of inflation expectations nor for demand to disrupt disinflation and we won’t allow it.” “We want to preserve the gains we’ve made in reserves, the current-account balance and other important areas like dollarisation,” he added.The central bank last month fine-tuned its guidance for inflation, maintaining a year-end target of 24% while at the same time issuing a projection of where it anticipates the figure to ultimately end up.That’s likely to be in the range of 25% to 29%, the bank said.The official targets will be used to “determine the tightness of monetary policy in the current and near-term period,” Karahan said.“Because monetary mechanism takes some time, in the short run estimates could diverge from the interim targets,” he said. “There might be times when monetary policy can’t immediately react. For example, these could include factors that fall outside the relative sphere of influence of monetary policy, developments that have emerged very recently relative to the control horizon, and situations where the impact on the inflation outlook is uncertain.”