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The war in the Middle East has created major disruptions to global supplies of nitrogen-based crop nutrients. Now a potentially bigger threat is emerging in another important part of the fertilizer market.The focus since the conflict began has been on urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer used on corn. Prices for the nutrient have surged as the war blocks shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, sending farmers scrambling to procure supplies. What’s been largely overlooked in the chaos is the risk to phosphate fertilizers — key for crops like soybeans, a cornerstone of food production.The Middle East accounts for only about a fifth of global trade for three key phosphate products, according to The Fertilizer Institute. But almost half of the world’s supply of sulfur — which is turned into sulfuric acid for the processing of phosphate fertilizer — comes from countries in the Middle East vulnerable to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.The effects along the supply chain could start to be “exponential” if the conflict continues for much longer, once producers work through existing sulfur and sulfuric acid reserves, said Andy Hemphill, who covers sulfuric acid markets for commodity pricing platform ICIS.That’s bad news for the global food supply, which counts on phosphate to support the growth of everything from soybeans to potatoes. The conflict is already raising concerns over inflation and food security. It’s also the latest threat to US farmers, who were already weathering years of high production costs. Nearly 80% of the US’s phosphorus is applied to its soy and corn fields, which in turn are processed both into livestock feed and fuel.Even before the conflict, supplies of both phosphate and sulfur were already tight. Sulfur prices had surged to record highs, driven in part by demand from the mining industry, which uses sulfuric acid to extract metals such as copper and nickel. Russian exports have been constrained by the war in Ukraine and an export ban, while China has curbed phosphate shipments to prioritize domestic use.US policy has added further strain. Duties imposed in 2023 on Moroccan phosphate — still in place — and broader tariffs implemented last year by President Donald Trump have limited imports.“Phosphate had plenty of problems of its own before the war started. This war has just made the bad situation worse,” said Josh Linville, vice president for fertilizers at brokerage StoneX Group. “I would dare say it’s almost in worse shape than what urea, nitrogen is in today.”Efforts were made to rebuild inventories, particularly of phosphates, after fertilizer was exempted from some tariffs late last year, said Veronica Nigh, chief economist at The Fertilizer Institute. But she said the real challenge is on sulfur supplies. The conflict in Israel had already raised sulfur prices so much that some phosphate production had shut down.“Sulfur is used for a lot of things, and if we are in a situation where we are in a constrained supply situation, fertilizer may not be the first use case of that sulfur,” Nigh said. “It could be a more prolonged problem.”Sulfur contracts in Tampa — a key US benchmark that is settled quarterly — reached a record price in late January, according to Bloomberg Green Markets data going back to 2012. New Orleans prices for diammonium phosphate, the world’s most common phosphate fertilizer, are at a nearly four-month high.Fertilizer producers will be squeezed as competing buyers, particularly mining companies, will be able to pay more, said Faraz Ahmed, a director at Montage Commodities, a trading house based in the United Arab Emirates. The impact to phosphate fertilizer prices could come as soon as April, when India typically steps up purchases for its domestic production — a move that could push the market in “panic mode,” he said.The situation is intensifying calls in the US for more stability in the markets. Farmers depend on three main families of fertilizer products: nitrogen, phosphate and potash. Only the latter, which is largely sourced from Canada and is applied alongside phosphate to soy crops, is largely insulated from the current global supply shock.Farm groups are urging the government to suspend duties on fertilizer from Morocco, which holds the world’s largest phosphate rock reserves, arguing that high prices and geopolitical risks have already reduced the need for protectionist measures.Those duties — put in place in 2021 after Florida-based Mosaic Co asked the Commerce Department for an investigation — are currently under review. The American Farm Bureau Federation asked Trump to temporarily suspend such fees, while a coalition of the US’s biggest farm groups last week asked fertilizer manufacturers Mosaic and JR Simplot Co to withdraw their support of the duties. The companies on March 17 sent letters to the Commerce Department saying they intended to participate in the agency’s review.Meanwhile, affordability is already curbing demand. David Delaney, chief executive officer of phosphate producer Itafos Inc, said he expected US phosphate use to fall about 20% in the 12 months ending in June. Supply constraints could push that decline further — especially if farmers plant more soybeans instead of corn to avoid high nitrogen costs.“It’s going to be tight through spring, through summer and through the fall,” said Delaney. “Will there be enough to get through spring with a 20% cutback? Probably, but we end the season completely empty.” 

It’s a great time to be an oil refiner — but a less great time to be filling up at the pump.In Europe, the US and Asia, giant plants are making money by doing what they’ve always done: converting crude oil into vital fuels and selling them at a profit.What’s different today is the scale of the threat to global supplies: Relentless attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, outages at key plants in Asia and Africa and permanent closures across Europe and the US have removed millions of barrels of diesel and gasoline from the world market.On top of these real-world impacts are traders’ fears of what’s yet to come: imminent US sanctions on Lukoil PJSC and Rosneft PJSC and fresh European Union curbs on fuels made from Russian crude threaten already squeezed supply-chains.The result is ongoing pressure on costs at the pump despite a fall in global oil prices — something that’s unlikely to sit well with a US administration that sees “affordable energy” as essential.“Global refinery margins are astronomical,” said Eugene Lindell, head of refined products at consultancy FGE NexantECA. “The signal you’re giving the global refining system, no matter where the refinery is located, is to just run flat out.”In the US, Europe and Asia, margins are the highest they’ve been at this time of year since at least 2018, according to fair value data compiled by Bloomberg. The profits are so good that refiners’ stock prices are also surging: Processors including Valero Energy Corp and Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS have seen stellar rises, while Orlen SA gained more than 100% year-to-date.While expectations of a glut are dragging on crude prices, disruption to the global refining system is limiting how much oil can be turned into products like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. While that benefits the processors still running, it also means the slump in headline oil prices isn’t being felt at the pump.A constant stream of attacks on Russia’s refineries — just this month, Ukraine claimed strikes on the Saratov, Orsk and Volgograd plants — is hampering fuel production. Last month, Russia’s huge oil product exports were on course to hit a multi-year low, and that was before drone attacks damaged key loading facilities in the port city of Tuapse.Product supplies are being further squeezed by outages elsewhere. In Kuwait, the giant 615,000 barrel-a-day Al-Zour refinery recently had only one of its three crude processing units operating, while a key gasoline-production unit at Nigeria’s huge Dangote refinery is reportedly scheduled to halt for about 50 days of maintenance in coming weeks, having only recently begun restarting.Meanwhile, US crude runs in recent weeks have been more than a million barrels a day lower than the same time last year, a huge drop from the peak summer demand months, when processing was at its highest seasonal level since 2019. The country has seen multiple refinery closures in recent years, as has western Europe, further pressuring fuel supplies.“Global refining activity has been challenged by a series of unplanned outages in October, further constraining product markets and pushing margins even higher,” the International Energy Agency said Thursday. Increased profits have prompted the watchdog to raise its estimates for runs at margin-sensitive refining assets in Europe and Asia this month and next.In the US, the upshot is a rise in the average price of diesel since President Trump took office, and little change in the cost of gasoline, which on Thursday stood at $3.08 a gallon. Benchmark crude futures have meanwhile come off about 20% since his second inauguration, amid forecasts of a large surplus.Supercharging these ongoing real-world supply pressures are traders’ fears over what’s on the horizon.“The current strength in refining margins is at least partially being driven by uncertainty around the upcoming US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as the EU’s January prohibitions on Russian products,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group.FGE’s Lindell estimates Lukoil and Rosneft’s combined Russia oil product exports are more than 800,000 barrels a day. The global seaborne trade in oil products is about 22mn barrels a day, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd., a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker.Any major disruption to those exports would be a shock to the global fuels market, though the extent to which those barrels would really disappear is unclear. Russia has shown that it often manages to work around sanctions.There are also questions about what comes next for refineries outside Russia in which Lukoil is involved, including Bulgaria’s Burgas facility, the Netherlands’ Zeeland plant and Romania’s Petrotel.Then there are the EU restrictions, coming into force January 21, which restrict the delivery of petroleum products made from Russian crude into the bloc. Precisely how these will end up impacting Europe’s diesel supplies from India and Turkey — both of which have also been key importers of Russian crude — remains to be seen.“The sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, on top of the recent sanctions package out of the EU, tightened the noose around Russia’s neck,” said Carolyn Kissane, an associate dean at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University, where she teaches about energy and climate change. “At the same time, you’re seeing more attacks driven by Ukraine against Russian infrastructure, which is a hit to the products market.”