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Asia is back on top. The region’s stock markets have beaten the US and Europe this year, credit markets are strong, currencies are strengthening, and investors expect the momentum to carry into 2026.In dollar terms, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of the region’s equities is up 27% this year including dividends. It’s also the first time since 2020 that Asian shares have outpaced both US and European benchmarks in the same year.The resurgence reflects Asia’s expanding appeal to investors seeking faster growth as the US and Europe slow. A weaker dollar has made Asian assets more attractive, while the region’s deep links to the technologies shaping the global economy have strengthened the investment case.“Asia’s outstanding performance isn’t just a cyclical bounce — it reflects where global growth and policy momentum are converging, giving the region a credible runway into 2026,” said Hebe Chen, senior market analyst at Vantage Global Prime Pty. “While the US still dominates the top end of the tech stack, Asia — especially China, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan — now anchors critical parts of the AI value chain, often without US-style valuation strain.”The rally’s breadth is striking. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China have all posted double-digit gains this year. South Korea’s Kospi index alone has climbed 71%, making it one of the top-performing major markets globally.In China, stocks are heading for their strongest year since 2020, driven by the excitement around artificial intelligence. DeepSeek’s AI advances have helped revive interest in Chinese technology, an area that had been heavily discounted after years of regulatory pressure.Jonathan Armitage, chief investment officer for Australia-based Colonial First State, said the renewed focus on Chinese tech has strengthened the money manager’s outlook for emerging-market stocks into 2026.To be sure, the rally comes with risks. China’s economic recovery has been uneven and any renewed strength in the dollar could hurt returns for foreign investors. There’s also concern that the rally in AI-related tech stocks is getting crowded, which may leave prices vulnerable if growth slows or sentiment flips.Even so, some investors say those risks don’t change the broader story. The region’s cross-asset rally is seen as the early stage of a longer re-rating — a period when markets are valued more highly as growth prospects improve.“With a hotter and more diverse growth engine than the US or Europe, 2025 looks less like a peak for Asia and more like the early stage of a longer re-rating cycle,” Vantage Global’s Chen said.Investor interest is spreading beyond the biggest markets, with Vietnam emerging as a favourite. Stocks there are up about 38% this year, and some investors say the rally could extend.“We are most bullish on Vietnam, which has attractive value and growth characteristics,” said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer for Vantage Point Asset Management in Singapore.A weakening greenback has boosted the value of Asian assets for dollar-based investors, making returns look more attractive just as most Asian currencies are strengthening.China’s offshore yuan is trading close to its strongest level in more than a year, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars have advanced as traders begin to price in tighter monetary policy. Meanwhile, the Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht are close to a 10% gain.“Despite the volatility surrounding tariffs, Asia FX — including the Australian dollar — have done well broadly,” said Wee Khoon Chong, a senior Asia-Pacific market strategist at BNY. “The weak US dollar, resilient regional trade growth and the AI-led optimism has benefited Asia this year and likely to continue into 2026.”The bullish mood extends to corporate debt. An index of Asia’s dollar-based investment-grade debt has beaten its US counterpart and is on track for its biggest year gain since 2019. Spreads are slightly above the record lows hit in November, while high-yield spreads have held near a seven-year low reached in September.“We’re talking about a high credit quality market, particularly when it comes to investment grade, which is backed by strong fundamentals,” said Omar Slim, co-head of Asia fixed income at PineBridge Investments.Outside of China, defaults have been minimal, while issuance “is under control and being sought after by a growing money pool,” Slim said. 

Investors hoping for traditional holiday cheer for the US stock market are encountering turbulence that ‌could keep markets on edge into year-end.Despite stock indexes remaining on track for solid performance in ‌2025, the benchmark S&P 500 has ‍edged lower so far in December, bucking historical trends that have shown it to be a strong month on average.Two themes have ⁠sparked swings in US equities in recent weeks: Scrutiny ⁠on massive corporate spending for the artificial intelligence buildout, and shifting expectations about further interest rate cuts by ‍the Federal Reserve in 2026. This week, questions about a data-centre project from Oracle weighed on tech and other AI-related stocks, while tame inflation data on Thursday gave stocks a lift. "This week's economic data solidifies expectations that the Fed will have a rate-cutting bias," said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones.While investors in the coming days may look to lock in profits after a solid year, causing some selling pressure, the latest data "likely provide a green light for the Santa Claus rally to take ‌place this year," Kourkafas said.Since 1950, the "Santa Claus rally" has seen the S&P 500 rise an average 1.3% over the last five trading days of the year and the first two in January, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. ‍This year, that period starts Wednesday ⁠and runs through January 5.Investors this week digested a heavy batch of data that had been delayed due to the 43-day federal government shutdown. Employment data showed job growth rebounded in November but the unemployment rate stood at 4.6%, its highest level in over four years.Another delayed report on Thursday showed the US consumer price index increased less than expected in the year to November. Optimism from the cooling inflation data may be tempered by distortions, including data collection being delayed late into November, when retailers offered holiday season discounts.The Fed has cut interest rates at three consecutive meetings, leaving investors now to parse data for insight into when the central bank might be able to ease again in 2026."Going into next week... there's going to be a big question around what ​is the path ahead for the Fed," ‌given the shutdown-related data distortions, said Trevor Slaven, global head of asset allocation and multi-asset portfolio solutions at Barings."There's this unsettled argument between the direction of travel ⁠for these major central banks, the direction ‍of travel for inflation at a time when it does look like there's (more) softness" in the labour market data, Slaven said.Economic reports in the coming week include third-quarter gross domestic product, durable goods orders and consumer confidence.Focus during the holiday-shortened trading week also will likely remain on the AI trade that has helped lift stocks this year. The S&P 500 is up more than 15% so far 2025, on track for its third consecutive year ​of gains of at least 10%.More recently, however, AI-related worries - including when massive infrastructure spending will generate returns - have dented the high-flying tech sector, which carries by far the largest weighting in major indexes such as the S&P 500. "You're starting to just see this scepticism around the AI spend becoming more prominent," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. For the tech and tech-related stocks, "obviously their disproportionate representation in the cap-weighted index at large is helping to put some pressure on the tape."Other sectors that had lagged this year have helped pick up the slack. Those include economically sensitive areas such as transportation, financial and ⁠small-cap groups, which are all higher so far in December."We've seen money move away from tech," Kourkafas said. "Other areas have stepped up and have helped keep markets mostly range-bound." 

Gold pared gains as traders grew cautious on bets of further monetary easing next year after US Federal Reserve officials offered strongly opposing views on Friday.Declines in US equities, driven by a selloff in technology shares, also meant some investors may have to exit their positions in metals to cover losses elsewhere.Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she would prefer interest rates be slightly more restrictive to keep pressure on inflation, which remains too high. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid made the same argument, adding that’s why he dissented against the central bank’s decision this week to lower rates.After the policymakers’ remarks, yields on Treasury 30-year bonds rose, sending bullion lower by as much as 0.5% before paring some of the losses. The precious metal typically performs well in a lower-rate environment and investors now are looking for more certainty on the outlook.The selloff appears broad-based across commodities markets and risk assets and is likely related to the aftermath of Wednesday’s Fed meeting, said Dan Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities.Gold traders initially cheered the Fed’s announcement that it will begin buying $40bn of Treasury bills per month starting December 12 as it’s looking to rebuild reserves in the financial system, a move signalling more easing ahead. The Fed stopped shrinking its holdings earlier this month, a process known as quantitative tightening, amid signs reserves in the banking system were no longer abundant.Markets are still debating whether the central bank’s reserve management purchases program is an effective form of quantitative easing, Ghali said.The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday US President Donald Trump said he was leaning toward choosing either former Fed governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to lead the Federal Reserve next year. Hassett has emerged as the front runner and is widely considered a supporter of Trump’s preference for lower rates.Silver retreated from an all-time high above $64. The white metal has been on a tear recently, helped by exchange-traded fund inflows and physical market tightness.On iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the largest silver ETF, total call open interest hit the highest since 2021 this week. Meanwhile its total put open interest is at a record. The cost of buying calls relative to the cost of buying equivalent puts, which protect against downside in prices, has also jumped to a years-long high in recent weeks.Spot gold gained 0.6% to $4,304.26 an ounce in New York on Friday. Silver tumbled 2.4%. Platinum rose while palladium fell. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was up 0.1%. 

Asian equities staggered into the weekend on Friday following a mixed week that saw an agreement on a Middle East ceasefire and huge new AI investments play off against the US shutdown and concerns about a tech bubble.In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 closed down 1.0% to 48,088.80 points; Hong Kong — Hang Seng Index ended down 1.7% to 26,290.32 points and Shanghai — Composite closed down 0.9% to 3,897.03 points Friday.While some markets hit record highs along with gold and bitcoin, talk is growing that valuations among some companies may have run too high, sparking talk of a pullback.Buying sentiment got another boost this week from news that ChatGPT-maker OpenAI had signed multi-billion-dollar chip deals with South Korean titans Samsung and SK hynix as well as US firm AMD.The spending added to the hundreds of billions already pumped into the sector as firms look to get ahead on the sphere of artificial intelligence.That in turn has seen investors flood into the tech sector, sending stock prices rocketing — with US chip leader Nvidia topping a $4tn market capitalisation.However, there are rumblings that the rally could run out of steam, causing jitters on trading floors."Some areas of the market appear overheated," said Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services.Such worries have been part of the reason behind the rally in gold to a record above $4,000 on Wednesday.Alexandra Symeonidi, corporate credit analyst at William Blair, wrote: "Given the strong rally in tech stocks some market participants started to question the sustainability of the price momentum and were driving parallels with recent bubbles."So, while the overall market has been healthy, investors have been adding hedges in what is broadly considered to be a safe haven asset." Still, Pepperstone's Michael Brown remained upbeat on equities and saw plenty of upside."My view remains that dips in the equity complex should still be viewed as buying opportunities, with the 'path of least resistance' continuing to lead higher amid resilient underlying economic growth, robust earnings growth, and a looser Fed policy backdrop," he wrote in a commentary.Gold has since fallen sharply, helped by profit-taking as well as a breakthrough in Gaza peace talks and a strengthening dollar.All three main indexes on Wall Street ended in the red, and Asia largely followed suit.Hong Kong, Tokyo and Shanghai were among the biggest losers, while there were also retreats in Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Bangkok and Manila. London was down, though Paris rose with Frankfurt.Seoul, however, rallied more than 1% thanks to a surge of more than 6% in Samsung on optimism about its AI chips and memory business.Mumbai and Jakarta were also up.On currency markets, the yen rose against the dollar after the junior partner in Japan's ruling coalition said it was leaving the alliance with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.The move comes days after the LDP elected stimulus-friendly Sanae Takaichi as its new leader, putting her on course to become prime minister.Komeito chief Tetsuo Saito reportedly told Takaichi that her answers on the LDP's recent slush fund scandal were unsatisfactory. The move will likely make it difficult for the LDP to pass key legislation, including spending.Tokyo's Nikkei 225 stock surged this week on Takaichi's election, which stoked hopes for more stimulus measures and a push for easier monetary policies from the Bank of Japan. Futures in the index tumbled on Friday.Adding to the unease across markets is the standoff in Washington that is expected to see a US government shutdown run into a third week, with both sides showing no sign of backing down.Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated a weekend session was unlikely, according to news website Semafor. The Senate was due to be in session on Friday, with an eighth vote on the House-passed bill tipped to fail.Donald Trump repeated threats to slash government programmes popular with Democrats as he berated the party over the shutdown at a cabinet meeting."The Democrat shutdown is causing pain and suffering for hardworking Americans, including our military, our air traffic controllers and impoverished mothers, people with young children, people that have to live not the greatest of lives," he said.Democrats are privately preparing a shutdown lasting several more weeks, CNN reported, if Republicans do not agree to their demands to extend health care subsidies due to expire on December 31.

When a quiet resurgence in Chinese equities developed into a world-beating rally, it took many seasoned market watchers by surprise.There’s little sign of a revival in spending by consumers and businesses that would dramatically inflate the earnings of Chinese companies. Instead, the boom appears to be driven by hedge funds and retail investors seeking higher returns in an environment of low interest rates. There’s also optimism that breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and a government drive to address industrial overcapacity are about to kick-start China’s economy.For now, official data isn’t pointing to an economic rebound, and there are already signs that share prices may be overheating, reviving memories of a stock market crash in 2015 that burned small investors. Financial authorities are under growing pressure to step in and calm the speculative fever.What’s happening in China’s stock market?The CSI 300 Index jumped 10% in August, its best performance since a rally last September. Red flags have emerged. Market turnover has hit a record. The outstanding amount of margin trades — where investors borrow money to buy local stocks in the onshore market — has also surged to an all-time high, signalling a growing appetite for risk-taking.In an effort to curb speculative fever, mutual funds have capped daily purchases of some of the year’s best performing equity portfolios, and commercial banks have tightened oversight of clients using credit cards to fund stock investments.What’s behind the sudden rally?The money is pouring in mostly from households, whose savings are collectively at a record high. With interest rates on savings drifting lower, some have been turning to equities for better returns. Wealthy investors have led the charge, often via hedge fund investments. But the volume of money heading into stocks is still relatively small compared with the trillions of yuan saved by Chinese consumers overall, and this is fuelling speculation that the market rally has further to run.Easing trade tensions with the US have helped to calm investor nerves. There are hopes that a government “anti-involution” campaign to combat price wars and fix overcapacity across various industries will break a deflationary cycle that’s undermined the confidence of consumers and businesses. And China’s breakthroughs in artificial intelligence have led to hopes that national industries are poised for a wave of technological progress that will accelerate economic growth and boost corporate earnings.Why are Chinese financial regulators concerned?The country’s financial authorities face a difficult balancing act in trying to engineer sustainable growth in the stock market without causing investors to panic. The Beijing government has made clear it would prefer a “slow bull market” that would allow for sustainable wealth creation and a durable boost in household consumption. The last thing the authorities want is a sharp reversal following a rapid rally, which would inflict heavy losses on retail investors. But as the rally continues, analysts are warning of a stock market bubble that could pop unless corporate earnings prospects improve or the government boosts its support for the economy.What might they do about it?China’s financial regulators are considering a number of measures to cool the market. These include a removal of some curbs on short selling and various measures to rein in speculative trading, according to people familiar with the matter.For now, regulators may have some breathing room before they need to intervene, as the involvement of retail investors in the stock market is still relatively limited by historic standards, suggesting the rally may not be as fragile as some market watchers suggest.What’s at stake if the market doesn’t stabilise?Much of China’s economy is still in the doldrums and suffering from a protracted real estate crisis. With the government trying to kick-start household spending to offset the negative impacts of a trade battle with the US the biggest destination for Chinese exports the last thing it needs is a stock market slump that would further dent consumer confidence. If the losses became too hard to bear, it could damage the social stability that’s the number-one priority for China’s leadership.