US retail sales growth likely moderated a touch in September, capping an otherwise solid quarter of spending by consumers who are nonetheless frustrated by high prices and anxious about job security. Economists expect a 0.4% increase in sales after the 0.6% gain a month earlier, based on the Bloomberg survey median estimate. Delayed for more than a month by the government shutdown, the Census Bureau is scheduled to issue the figures Tuesday. Retail demand proved resilient over the summer, probably helping to fuel an acceleration in economic growth during the third quarter.At the same time, there’s a risk that consumer outlays will cool as many employers temper hiring. Moreover, discretionary spending is being supported mostly by upper-income shoppers enjoying the fruits of the year’s stock market rally. For those further down the income ladder, the higher cost of many staple items is taking a toll. The latest University of Michigan data show consumers have the dimmest views of their personal finances since 2009, and see the probability of losing their jobs at the highest in five years.In the retail space, companies including Walmart Inc and Gap Inc have reported strong quarterly sales as well as success in appealing to higher-income shoppers. Yet Home Depot Inc warned that many consumers are putting remodelling projects and big-ticket purchases on hold. Other key US data in the coming week include the producer price index and durable goods orders for September, as well as weekly jobless claims. Those reports come ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday and Black Friday, the biggest retailing day of the year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book on Wednesday, covering October and early November, is likely to highlight weakness in employment and activity. “Labour-market conditions bottomed during the summer, then improved gradually until the government shutdown began — which led to some renewed weakness in spending and hiring.Firms are mostly seeking ways to cut costs by adopting technology and trimming hiring. Altogether, we believe the Fed can and probably should cut rates in December to sustain the fragile recovery that began during the summer,” say Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou, Chris G Collins, Troy Durie and Alex at Bloomberg.Canada will release gross domestic product data on Friday. It likely grew slightly in the third quarter after contracting between April and June as US tariffs crushed exports. The Bank of Canada expects 0.5% expansion on an annualised basis, and has said it believes rates are at “about the right level” as long as the economy and inflation evolve in line with its forecasts. Traders in overnight swaps currently see just a slim, 3% chance of a rate cut at the central bank’s December 10 meeting. Still, the GDP report is expected to show a sluggish economy with a manufacturing sector hit hard by the US trade war. Elsewhere, the long-awaited UK budget and inflation readings from Australia to Germany to Mexico will draw attention.Central bankers in New Zealand, Israel and Nigeria are likely to cut interest rates, while South Korea is expected to hold. Asia’s final week of November brings a dense run of price data and rate decisions that will shape how policymakers close the year. The week begins with Singapore’s October CPI, with economists predicting an acceleration in prices, while Taiwan follows with its unemployment rate. Tomorrow, South Korea releases consumer confidence, Japan has department-store sales, and Taiwan reports industrial production for October.The data will give a sense of how consumption and external demand are holding up across North Asia. Attention shifts mid-week to Australia and New Zealand. Australia’s October CPI will show whether price pressures remain elevated enough for the Reserve Bank to stay on an extended hold. Third-quarter construction data, due the same day, will highlight the impact of lower borrowing costs on the building pipeline. In Wellington, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to lower borrowing costs again to bring its official cash rate to 2.25%, a near 3-1/2 year low.Singapore’s industrial production figures and the Philippines’ budget balance are also on the calendar. Attention turns to Seoul on Thursday, where the Bank of Korea is set to leave rates unchanged at 2.5%. The same day, New Zealand reports third-quarter retail sales and ANZ business surveys, key to measuring how easier monetary conditions are feeding through to households and firms. The week concludes with a data-heavy Friday.Japan’s Tokyo CPI, labour-market data, retail sales and industrial production will offer a comprehensive snapshot of how households and manufacturers are coping with tighter monetary settings and a weaker yen. South Korea’s industrial production and the Philippines’ trade balance are also on tap. Taiwan posts preliminary third-quarter GDP and India closes the week with its third-quarter growth print ahead of a long-awaited trade pact with the US. Public finances will dominate the headlines in Europe. Most prominent will be the UK, where Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers a budget after weeks of speculation that have roiled financial markets and — according to survey data — unsettled business sentiment.Reeves needs to find as much as £30bn ($39bn) in extra funds to restore stability to the public finances. Having floated the prospect of income tax increases that would have broken pre-election promises, she dialled back on that and is now likely to take other steps to achieve her goal. The UK government said over the weekend that it will freeze rail fares in the upcoming budget. It also will increase subsidies for electric vehicles as it seeks to mitigate a tax rise that’s expected to target the cars, according to a spokesperson.
