US payrolls growth probably settled back in February after the strongest month of hiring in a year, returning to a more moderate and likely sustainable pace of hiring.
Economists project 60,000 jobs were added for the month — less than half the number created at the start of the year, according the median of a Bloomberg survey ahead of Friday’s report. The jobless rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%.
After years of scrambling to lure workers, employers dialed back hiring rapidly in 2025. The result was the weakest year for payrolls growth outside of a recession since 2003. That’s led to increased anxiety among American consumers who’ve been the primary source of fuel for the economy.
The longer the job market limps along, the more consumer resilience will be put to the test. January retail sales data, due on the same day as the payrolls report, are unlikely to offer concrete signals either way because severe winter weather snarled activity across much of the US.
Economists forecast a modest increase in receipts at US retailers other than auto dealers and gas stations. Fuel prices fell to a five-year low earlier in the month before rebounding in the closing weeks of January. Auto sales slumped, based on industry figures, also likely due to weather.
“We expect a 30K drop in February payrolls, a sharp deceleration from January’s surprisingly strong print. The slowdown is more reflective of the cold spell in late-January and early February than a weakening in underlying hiring conditions. Weather-sensitive sectors were particularly hard hit, including construction and leisure and hospitality likely. But our broader takeaway is that labor market conditions have stabilised since last fall,” say Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Chris G Collins, Alex Tanzi and Troy Durie, economists.
In addition to the jobs and retail sales reports, economists will parse a pair of surveys on manufacturing and services for clues about business sentiment. The Institute for Supply Management will issue its manufacturing index on Monday, followed by the group’s gauge of services activity on Wednesday.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday will release its Beige Book, offering anecdotal insight into economic conditions around the country.
In Canada, officials will survey the outlook in a more shock-prone world, with Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem discussing economic and financial stability risks and Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki outlining how the monetary policy framework may need to adapt.
Markets will also parse productivity data for signs that a rebound carried into year-end. Prime Minister Mark Carney is traveling to India, Australia and Japan, advancing efforts to diversify trade relationships.
Elsewhere, a plethora of inflation numbers — from the euro zone to Turkey, and from South Korea to Chile — as well as multiple activity indexes and China’s National People’s Congress will be among the highlights. Fallout from joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran also will be in focus.
The week kicked off with export data for South Korea, which showed an acceleration in February, reinforcing the central bank’s view that solid semiconductor demand is helping cushion the economy as it maintains a neutral policy stance.
Australia releases data on Wednesday that’s expected to show that growth picked up a tad in the fourth quarter, in figures likely to sustain speculation over another Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike this year after January inflation held above the bank’s target.
China gets PMI statistics the same day that will probably highlight the need for more policy support after a sluggish start to the year. Meanwhile, the National People’s Congress that starts on Thursday will set the tone for the economy in the year ahead.
Official manufacturing and non-manufacturing gauges for February are both forecast to stay contractionary. The RatingDog indexes also due have tended to be a little more upbeat.
Other Asian nations releasing PMI statistics in the coming week include Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance on Tuesday releases a report card for corporations. Fourth-quarter profits will give an indication of whether firms have scope to maintain robust wage growth, and capex data will be watched closely after preliminary GDP for the period showed anemic 0.2% growth in business spending. Tuesday’s figures will be factored into revised GDP due March 9.
South Korea’s consumer inflation is seen picking up a bit in February, to 2.2%, likely keeping the Bank of Korea in a holding pattern for now. Indonesia’s February consumer inflation is expected to accelerate to 4.34% after recording the fastest clip since 2023 a month earlier, in data that could test Bank Indonesia’s resolve to stay accommodative.
Also releasing CPI figures are Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam. Trade data are due from Vietnam, Australia, Indonesia and Pakistan.
In central bank action, three RBA officials are due to speak, possibly offering clues on the timing of the next rate hike, with pricing in the overnight-indexed swaps market implying only the sliver of a chance of a back-to-back increase at the next decision on March 17.
Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at the Norges Bank Conference in Oslo on Monday. The following day, Governor Michele Bullock delivers a speech at the AFR Business Summit in Sydney, and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks on a panel in New York at the end of the week. Elsewhere, Malaysia’s central bank is forecast to hold its overnight policy rate steady at 2.75% on Thursday.
It’s a big week for inflation. After mixed reports from three of the euro area’s largest economies, forecasters anticipate overall annual consumer-price growth at 1.7% in February. That would match the prior reading, which was the lowest since September 2024.
Those data on Tuesday will be released concurrently with Italy’s inflation number, which is expected to show a slight uptick, to 1.1%.
