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Evaluating sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) solely through single-year cost comparisons presents a misleading view of project economics.The joint report titled ‘India's Aviation Opportunity: Turning Agricultural Residue and Low-Cost Solar into Competitive Sustainable Aviation Fuel with Power-and-Biomass-to-Liquids’ detailed how conventional aviation fuel in India relies on imported crude oil priced in US dollars. In 2030, power-and-biomass-to-liquids (PBtL) fuel carries an estimated production cost of $1.42 per litre compared to $0.97 per litre for conventional jet fuel. However, the study stressed that analysing costs across a 25-year levelised project cycle reveals a much narrower financial gap. Historical data from 2005 to 2025 shows wholesale jet fuel prices inflating by 5.0% annually in nominal rupee terms. The findings indicated that roughly 1.9% of that increase stems from US dollar commodity inflation, while the remaining 3.1% reflects ongoing rupee devaluation against the dollar. Synthetic fuel plants reverse this monetary vulnerability, the publication pointed out. Built as capital-intensive domestic assets, PBtL facilities lock in major operational inputs through long-term, rupee-denominated power purchase agreements (PPAs) at fixed tariffs. Consequently, the report noted that levelised production costs remain insulated from exchange rate fluctuations and foreign commodity price shifts. Taking these currency dynamics into account, the researchers calculated that the levelised cost of PBtL fuel produced at a plant commissioned in 2030 is Rs127 per litre, just 18% above the adjusted levelised purchase cost of conventional jet fuel over the same quarter-century. Under base-case market assumptions, the report projected that new synthetic fuel facilities commissioned in 2036 will achieve full levelised cost parity with conventional fuel. According to the report, that parity date can arrive much sooner if policies capture the broader economic benefits of green fuel. Monetising health co-benefits from reduced field burning adds an estimated $0.38 per litre in avoided societal harm, while applying carbon costs adds up to $0.22 per litre, potentially closing the commercial cost gap by 2030, the report added.

India’s vast reserves of surplus crop residue, combined with record-low green hydrogen prices, could fuel not only its own aviation sector but also airlines worldwide, a new study has said. The report, prepared by the India Energy and Climate Centre, the UC Berkeley Goldman School of Public Policy, and the Energy Innovation Policy and Technology, stated that power-and-biomass-to-liquids (PBtL) sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) offers India the least-cost pathway to decarbonise air travel while reducing dependence on imported oil and cutting air pollution from crop fires. The report noted that India imports nearly “90%” of its crude oil, leaving the country exposed to price volatility and geopolitical risks. Aviation turbine fuel demand, which accounted for less than “4%” of oil consumption in 2024, is expected to rise six-fold by 2050, increasing vulnerability to supply shocks, it pointed out. Seasonal burning of crop residue remains a major contributor to India’s air pollution, with New Delhi recording the worst air quality among global capitals. Farmers burn an estimated “130mn tonnes” annually, causing between “44,000” and “98,000” premature deaths each year. The pollution also reduces work attendance and performance, lowers economic activity, raises healthcare costs, worsens soil quality, and deters tourism, the study stated. India’s carbon dioxide emissions have tripled since 2000. While short-term climate goals are on track, analysts warn that much more ambitious actions will be needed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070, according to the report. The study said India’s plummeting solar electricity costs, “among the lowest globally,” have enabled green hydrogen prices as low as “$3.1–4.5 per kg.” Combined with surplus residue of up to “235mn tonnes,” this creates a unique opportunity to produce SAF at costs up to “40%” below global benchmarks. PBtL SAF could reach price parity with fossil jet fuel in the 2030s, depending on crude oil prices and supportive policies. In the meantime, India could serve rising international demand for SAF blending mandates and corporate procurement goals, the study stated. Beyond economics, the report said PBtL SAF could deliver wide-ranging co-benefits. By creating demand for residue that farmers currently burn, it could reduce air pollution, avoid premature deaths, increase productivity, boost tourism, and strengthen rural economies through new revenue streams and jobs in collection and densification. The report identified Delhi, Pune, and Mumbai as prime sites for first-of-a-kind projects, given their proximity to large airports and abundant residue supplies. Policymakers were urged to mobilise India’s public sector oil companies, including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum, to anchor early PBtL deployment. Their control of refining and distribution infrastructure, coupled with government-backed financing, could help absorb the risks of novel SAF facilities. The study cautioned against unintended consequences, stressing that only surplus residue should be used to avoid displacing soil nutrients or encouraging land use changes. It also warned against blanket support for SAF pathways that rely on food crops or fossil-based hydrogen. Among its recommendations, the report called for concessional finance and streamlined approvals for demonstration projects, trade policy alignment with EU and UK mandates, and incentives tied to avoided air pollution deaths. It also urged India to expand SAF blending targets beyond 5% in 2030 to provide longer-term business certainty. The authors concluded that India’s unique combination of low-cost green hydrogen and surplus residue could deliver domestically-produced jet fuel that is low-cost, low-emissions, and resource-efficient. With the right policy support, India could advance self-reliance, improve air quality, strengthen rural economies, and position itself as a global leader in aviation decarbonisation.

High risk premium on energy markets and the fears of supply disruptions have started acting on aviation fuel prices, even as airlines sector resort to aggressive hedging, which is increasingly becoming a strategic risk management tool.Iran's warnings to vessels to avoid transiting the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas shipments transit, have contributed to sharp jumps in crude oil prices, feeding into higher jet fuel costs, which usually account for 20% to 35% of total operating costs of the airlines industry."We now think oil prices will sit at around $80 per barrel for the second quarter (Q2), falling back to $60 by the end of the year," Oxford Economics said in its latest update.Air fares may rise as airlines pass on higher operating costs to customers over time, especially on routes affected by detours or extended flight times.Rerouting a single long-haul flight to avoid the Middle East adds roughly 90 to 120 minutes of flight time, costing carriers an estimated $10,000 extra per flight in fuel and crew wages."The combined impacts of re-routing costs, which typically lead to longer journey times and more fuel burn and capacity reductions across the Middle East, will likely put an upward pressure on fares. The combination of higher prices and greater perceived risk (through weaker sentiment effects) will likely lead to weaker forward bookings should the disruption persist," the update said.Airlines have been actively locking in fuel prices using futures and options to protect against volatile jet fuel costs amid rising crude oil prices and geopolitical risk.Many major carriers globally have increased hedging coverage to lock in fuel prices for future periods, aiming to reduce exposure to spot market spikes as part of measures to deal with volatile jet fuel costs.Hedging, which is now increasingly becoming part of the strategic risk management for fuel costs, vary by airline. Hedged carriers can offer more stable and predictable fares and cargo contracts, potentially capturing share from less hedged competitors during price spikes.Jet fuel prices had peaked in 2022, averaging about $135 per barrel, driven by high crude oil costs amid the Russia-Ukraine war. After that peak, crude prices and therefore jet fuel eased into 2025, with Brent crude slipping fast and jet fuel followed.IATA data from late 2025 showed global jet fuel average about $90 per barrel, a modest decline compared with 2024, even as Brent moved above about $80–$85 per barrel as markets price in disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and broader supply risk.Jet fuel price indices are likely to climb above the recent baseline levels, reflecting the crude price shock and risk premiums with analysts anticipating continued volatility in prices until the geopolitical situation stabilises.“Surge in crude oil and jet fuel prices have underscored the vulnerability of carriers to market volatility, reinforcing the need for proactive hedging strategies as part of disciplined financial and risk management,” said a top official of a financial institution, which has sizeable exposure to the aviation sector.With geopolitical tensions rising, oil markets add a risk premium, prompting airlines to go in for either increasing the hedge ratio or extend hedging duration as hedging offers predictable fuel cost exposure and allows more accurate cash-flow forecasting.This stability is particularly valuable in periods of rapid price escalation, where spot market exposure could materially distort operating margins.Air France-KLM, Air New Zealand, Easy Jet, Qantas, Ryanair, Virgin Australia and Wizz Air were among those had high hedges of 80-85%; while IAG, Lufthansa, Norwegian Air, Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines and Iceland Air have seen hedging at 75% to 80%."We’ve got pretty good hedging in place, but these are pretty significant impacts on aviation and we’re just continuing to watch how it all unfolds," Qantas chief executive officer Vanessa Hudsonshe told the Australian Financial Review’s business summit.Airline stocks in Asia and Europe extended losses on Tuesday as the US and Israeli air war against Iran escalated. 

Beyond the TarmacAirlines are estimated to need 500mn tonnes (Mt) of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to achieve the industry’s goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.This can be achieved from two main sources- biomass and power-to-liquid, according to the International Air Transport Association.Biomass has the potential to produce more than 300Mt of bio-SAF annually by 2050. Some of this potential could be limited by use for competing sources. This potential could be expanded by unlocking additional feedstocks or through efficiency gains and technology improvements over intervening decades.Power-to-liquid (PtL) will be required to reach 500 Mt of SAF production annually by 2050. Maximising the volumes of cost-effective bio-SAF will reduce the pressure on e-SAF to bridge the gap.In all cases, to maximise SAF output, it will be essential to improve conversion efficiencies, accelerate technology rollout, enhance feedstock logistics, and invest in better infrastructure required to scale up commercial facilities across all regions.Recently, IATA in partnership with Worley Consulting, has published a study demonstrating that sufficient sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) feedstock exists to enable the airline industry to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.All feedstocks considered meet stringent sustainability criteria and do not lead to changes in land use.The study also identified significant barriers in using that feedstock for SAF production, namely the slow pace of technology rollout that would enable SAF to be produced from varied sources and competition with other potential users of the same feedstock.Currently, the only commercially scaled SAF production facilities use HEFA technology, for example converting used cooking oil into SAF.Policies allocating biomass feedstock to hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation must be prioritised.According to the report, there are sufficient sustainable feedstocks and SAF production technologies to decarbonise aviation and meet the net zero carbon emissions goal by 2050.With the right policies and investments, more than 300Mt of SAF from biomass feedstocks could be produced annually by mid-century and around 200Mt from e-SAF.Enhancing the feedstock supply chain infrastructure, scaling up novel sources that meet sustainability criteria, and ensuring that the feedstocks identified for SAF production are made available to the air transport industry remain a major challenge.Other major challenges, according to IATA, are: Accelerating technology rollout to unlock new SAF production technologies, especially PtL, including reliable access to the low-cost renewable electricity, hydrogen, and carbon capture infrastructure, which are all required as part of the PtL production method.Achieving coordinated government policies to support innovation, and investment to create a fully functioning SAF market, unlocking new economic opportunities.Rallying regional leadership, with North America, Brazil, Europe, India, China, and Asean identified as key drivers of global SAF output.Activating the energy industry to invest in SAF production capacity, support technology commercialisation, and align their business strategies with global decarbonisation goals.IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh said: “We now have unequivocal evidence that if SAF production is prioritised then feedstock availability is not a barrier in the industry’s path to decarbonisation.“There is enough potential feedstock from sustainable sources to reach net zero carbon emissions in 2050. However, this will only be accomplished with a major acceleration of the SAF industry’s growth. We need shovels in the ground now.”“With this study it becomes clear that we can make SAF the solution it needs to be for aviation’s decarbonisation. The potential to turn SAF feedstock into real SAF production is in the hands of policymakers and business leaders, particularly in the energy sector.“The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action. We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality,” said Walsh.Industry analysts say hitting net-zero aviation by 2050 is huge, technically possible, but it won’t happen by accident.The industry must scale SAF fast, modernise fleets, squeeze out operational savings, build hydrogen and PtL capacity, and deploy robust policy and finance — all co-ordinated internationally and backed by strict sustainability and verification — to credibly reach net-zero by 2050.

Beyond the TarmacThe lack of adequate returns is one of the biggest barriers discouraging investment in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production globally.SAF is currently much more expensive to produce than conventional jet fuel, often 2–5 times higher depending on the feedstock and technology.Without subsidies, price support, or guaranteed demand, investors face low or negative margins, according to industry analysts.IATA’s SVP of Sustainability and Chief Economist Marie Owens Thomsen noted investment is needed to fund new SAF production facilities and other sustainability initiatives.“Certainly, money is available if investors think the returns will be there. The amount of finance available to artificial intelligence development speaks to the deep pockets that investors have if they believe in a project.“But the truth is that oil is bringing in about a 20% return while renewable energy is lagging at 5%. Bridging that gap requires the right policies and incentives from regulators.”Thomsen said: “The good news is that solar and wind power have already shown the way forward. SAF needs a similar level of investment to these now-established energy markets so regulators should be aware of the constituents of a good policy.“The blueprint for success is there,” says Thomsen. “And it all fits together because this leads back to the idea of radical collaboration. This is not about giving money to aviation, it is about investing in the energy transition. SAF is just one part of the biofuel complex that will drive advances in renewable power.”IATA says the Asia-Pacific region is aviation’s fastest-growing market and notable for its SAF production opportunities. India, Malaysia, and Vietnam are just a selection of countries in the region that could play crucial roles in SAF production.China, meanwhile, has a strong record in strategic planning and is invariably successful in implementing those plans, often before deadline. The country aims to be carbon neutral by 2060 with peak emissions occurring before 2030.A SAF pilot project in China has been extended. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC)'s 14th Five-Year Plan calls for over 20,000 tons of SAF consumption in 2025 and a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Research Centre to develop standards and a certification system has been established.It is reported that more than 3mn tonnes of SAF production is either planned or in construction.China’s ability to be a trend-setter in SAF is important as SAF will do the heavy lifting if aviation is to reach net-zero by 2050. But Thomsen emphasises that decarbonisation is not just an industry issue.Thomsen suggests that if individual industries try to find their own solution each one will fail. “But together it is possible to succeed,” she adds.“Aside from the economic implications, countries that are forward-looking in this area can achieve greater energy independence. Refineries produce a slew of products so when we talk about SAF production, it is important to remember this is a small share of refined output.“The majority of renewable refined products will benefit other industries. This means that helping airlines obtain sustainable aviation fuel will give most other industries greater access to renewable fuels.”While airlines and regulators are pushing for SAF adoption, the fact remains that the demand is still relatively small and fragmented. Investors worry that commitments may not translate into long-term offtake agreements at profitable prices.Building SAF plants requires billions in upfront investment, with long payback periods. If policy frameworks or incentives such as tax credits, blending mandates, or carbon pricing are unclear, investors may find the risk-return profile unattractive.Many SAF feedstocks (including waste oils, crops and biomass) have alternative uses — like renewable diesel, bio-based chemicals, or even food. These alternatives can offer better returns, drawing investment away from SAF, experts say.Clearly, inadequate returns discourage SAF investment, which is why many experts emphasise the need for a combination of policy incentives, carbon pricing, and long-term purchase commitments from airlines to make SAF commercially viable.