tag

China's value-added industrial output expanded 6.5% year-on-year in September, official data showed on Monday. The growth accelerated from a 5.2% rise in August, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. In the first nine months of this year, China's industrial output increased by 6.2% compared to the same period last year. The industrial output is used to measure the activity of large enterprises, each with an annual main business turnover of at least 20 million yuan (about USD 2.82 million). A breakdown of the data showed that the manufacturing sector's value-added output increased by 7.3% year-on-year last month, while that of mining grew by 6.4%. The value-added output of the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector rose by 0.6%.

QNB confirmed that the beginning of 2025 was accompanied by cautiously positive expectations for global trade growth, supported by relative stability in the world economy. However, new shifts in US trade policy have significantly affected the global economic landscape. The bank's weekly report noted that the decision of the United States on Apr. 2 to impose broad tariffs including duties of no less than 10 percent on imports and higher rates on selected countries has led to rising concerns about supply chain disruptions, increased uncertainty, and the potential escalation of trade disputes. The report stated that, as a result, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast a contraction in global trade volumes for the current year, an occurrence that is rare and typically seen only in exceptional circumstances such as the 2009 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The report explained that economic indicators since April 2025 have shown notable resilience in the global economy despite existing challenges. It projected that global trade growth in 2025 will be modest compared to previous periods, but will remain far beyond the most pessimistic scenarios. This outlook is supported by three main factors. The first factor highlighted in the report is that leading indicators, particularly from highly integrated Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam, reflect strong export activity, signaling a recovery in global trade. These markets recorded an average annual growth rate of 6 percent in 2024, with the rate accelerating to 12 percent in the last four months of the year despite trade tensions. The report also pointed to Chinese export growth of 6 percent during the same period, reflecting sustained global demand. In this context, the report stated that investor expectations regarding the earnings of transportation-sector companies serve as an important indicator of future global trade trends. The Dow Jones Transportation Average in the United States, which includes companies involved in air, land, and sea transport as well as rail and delivery services, reached its lowest annual growth level in mid-2024 before rebounding into positive territory, signaling a possible expansion of trade.This improvement reflects a decline in pessimism even amid continued trade shocks. The gap between strong Asian export growth and the more cautious profit expectations of transport companies was attributed to the increase in early shipments to the US market in anticipation of further tariff threats. The second factor concerns a significant decrease in the likelihood of large-scale global trade wars despite the rise of US protectionist policies. The report explained that the conclusion of US negotiations with key trading partners, including the United Kingdom, Japan, and the European Union, has clearly reduced uncertainty and lowered the probability of expanding tariff measures. At the same time, most global economies are moving toward greater trade integration through multilateral agreements, which reduces the negative impact of protectionist policies and strengthens the stability of the global trading system. The third factor relates to monetary policy. The report considered that waves of monetary easing adopted by major central banks are expected to provide additional support for global trade growth in the coming period. It noted that the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 125 basis points next year, bringing it down to 3.25 percent by the end of 2026, in an effort to reduce borrowing costs and stimulate economic activity. Similarly, the European Central Bank has lowered its key rate by 200 basis points since mid-2024 to settle at 2 percent.The report emphasized that interest rates are a decisive factor in supporting investment and boosting consumer spending, which are two key pillars of global trade, particularly given that the United States and the euro area together account for about 40 percent of global GDP. The bank concluded its report by affirming that the outlook for 2025 indicates a tangible improvement in the prospects for global trade compared to the more pessimistic scenarios that followed Washington's announcement of broad tariffs. It pointed out that a combination of positive economic indicators, accommodative monetary policies, and the signing of new trade agreements is helping to limit the repercussions of geopolitical and economic tensions and to support the stability of the global trading system in the upcoming period.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) lifted its 2025 growth forecast for the first time in more than a year but warned that the effects of tariffs and war will weigh on growth in 2026. The report, which covers economies in emerging Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa, raised the 2025 growth outlook slightly to 3.1%, but noted a growing divergence as emerging European countries' growth lagged expansion elsewhere.The 2025 estimate excludes the development bank's newest members — Iraq and six Sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana — but they are included elsewhere in the report for the first time.Rising debt, resurgent inflation, prolonged wars and tariffs were menacing all EBRD economies, EBRD chief economist Beata Javorcik warned.While US imports from those countries had grown in the first half of the year, that was driven by the first quarter, before tariffs hit, she said.

Qatar Investment and Innovation Conference has announced that the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT) has joined the upcoming edition 'Driving GCC Entrepreneurial Growth' as strategic partner. This high-level forum, organised by The Business Year and Msheireb Properties aims to foster dialogue between policymakers, investors, entrepreneurs, and innovators from across the Gulf region.The partnership underscores MCIT's commitment to advancing Qatar's digital transformation, fostering innovation, and building a dynamic entrepreneurial ecosystem in line with the Third National Development Strategy, Qatar National Vision 2030, and Digital Agenda 2030. By focusing on emerging technologies, digital inclusion, and innovation-led growth, MCIT's participation emphasises the vital role of public-private collaboration in shaping the region's future as a knowledge-based economy.Faraj Jassim Abdulla, director of the Digital Economy Department at MCIT, stated: "Through the Qatar Investment and Innovation Conference, MCIT aims to empower entrepreneurs and innovators across the GCC by providing a platform to connect, share ideas, and explore growth opportunities. This conference is an excellent example of how public-private partnerships can strengthen the digital economy, accelerate innovation, and position Qatar as a leader in innovation and sustainable economic transformation."The conference, scheduled for November 3 at Barahat Msheireb, will convene senior leaders from government, investment, and the private sector to explore opportunities in entrepreneurship, innovation, and digital transformation across the GCC. Msheireb Downtown Doha will provide a fitting venue for these regional stakeholders to engage in meaningful discussions on the role of entrepreneurship in driving economic growth, strategies for scaling start-ups, the evolving investment landscape, and the importance of public-private partnerships in strengthening global competitiveness.New to this year's edition is the “AI for Good Innovation Challenge”, hosted in collaboration with the AI for Good initiative YAILs and its Doha chapter. This dynamic segment will provide a global platform for showcasing emerging AI-driven solutions aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), featuring emerging companies from across the GCC alongside main panel discussions with industry leaders and policymakers.As a Strategic Partner, MCIT will play a central role in shaping the programme, ensuring alignment with Qatar's national priorities and reinforcing the country's position as a regional hub for innovation and entrepreneurship.

Turkish inflation came in higher than expected in August, at nearly 33% annually and more than 2% on a monthly basis, readings that are likely to slow the central bank's plans to cut interest rates as it also weighs stronger economic growth.Annual consumer price inflation stood at 32.95% last month, official data showed on Wednesday, above a Reuters poll estimate of 32.6%. It was up 2.04% on a monthly basis.In further evidence that consumer demand remains strong despite the effects of prolonged monetary tightening, separate data on Monday had shown that Turkiye's economy grew by 4.8% in the second quarter, above expectations.The data flurry comes at a jittery time for investors in Turkiye. A court on Tuesday ousted the Istanbul provincial head of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), dealing a fresh judicial blow to opponents of President Tayyip Erdogan and triggering sharp falls in Turkish share and bond markets.According to a poll conducted in July, economists had expected the central bank to cut its policy rate to 36% by year-end, or some 700 basis points from the current 43%. However the latest inflation and GDP data could cause it to slow the pace of the easing, analysts said."Looking ahead to the central bank's September 11 meeting, we expect the market's current consensus for a 300bps rate cut to moderate towards 200-250bps," Oyak Securities said in a note to clients on Wednesday.In July, the central bank cut the policy rate by 300 basis points, relaunching an easing cycle paused in March, and it promised to use all policy tools in the event of a significant and persistent deterioration in inflation."After Wednesday's GDP growth data and today's inflation data, the probability of the central bank cutting rates by 300 basis points in September has become very low," Hakan Kara, a former central bank chief economist now on the faculty at Bilkent University in Ankara, said on X.The monthly inflation reading for August of 2.04% was affected by higher food, education, and housing prices, as well as the continued impact of a mid-year update of taxes on tobacco and fuel items.In July, CPI inflation stood at 33.52% on an annual basis, while the monthly reading was 2.06%.In the Reuters poll, the monthly inflation rate for August had been expected to come in at 1.8%.The domestic producer price index rose 2.48% month-on-month in August for an annual rise of 25.16%, the data showed.Inflation is seen slowing to 30% at the end of this year according to the poll median, higher than the central bank forecast range of 25%-29%.

Turkiye’s economic growth remained resilient in the second quarter despite an emergency interest-rate hike by the central bank in March.Gross domestic product expanded 1.6% on a quarterly basis, up from a revised 0.7% in the preceding three-month period when adjusted for seasonality and working days, Turkiye’s statistics office said on Monday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists projected an expansion of 0.6%.The economy grew 4.8% annually, compared with the median estimate of 4.1% in the survey and a revised 2.3% in the preceding quarter. The acceleration was largely down to the higher number of working days Turkiye had this year compared to 2024, QNB Turkiye economists led by Erkin Isik said in a research note ahead of the data release.The surprise boost came after the Turkish central bank raised interest rates in an unscheduled meeting in March to mitigate the market fallout following the jailing of a prominent opposition politician, reversing a cycle of rate cuts it had just begun. Even so, domestic demand climbed at the fastest pace in more than a year, leading the surge in annual growth. The central bank resumed its cuts in July, lowering the main policy rate to 43% from 46%.Spending by households, which is the main driver of Turkiye’s economy, rose 5.1%, the highest rate since the first quarter of 2024, Turkstat said.“On the surface, Turkiye’s especially strong growth data for the second quarter could be seen as reason to derail the central bank’s easing path. But activity is likely to post slower gains ahead and we maintain our call for rate cuts at all remaining meetings this year amid falling inflation,” says Selva Bahar Baziki, economist, Bloomberg Economics.“Today’s figures provide worrying evidence that domestic demand is too strong, which may prevent the current account deficit from narrowing further and inflation from falling as quickly as policymakers want,” Capital Economics’ chief emerging markets economist William Jackson said in a note. Though August inflation figures, which will be released on Wednesday, will give a better sense of that, Monday’s GDP report suggests the central bank “will not lower interest rates as quickly as we currently expect,” he said. Jackson currently sees the main policy rate reduced to 37% at the end of the year.Gross fixed capital formation, a measure of investments by businesses, soared by nearly 9% in the second quarter from a year earlier, while exports of goods and services increased by 1.7% from a year earlier, and up from 0.1% the prior quarter.The lira was little changed after the data release, trading 0.1% higher at 41.1182 per the US dollar at 10.57am in Istanbul.Monday’s release marks the first time Turkstat published revised growth data, which the agency said was carried out for better compliance with international peers.

Turkiye’s economic growth remained resilient in the second quarter despite an emergency interest-rate hike by the central bank in March.Gross domestic product expanded 1.6% on a quarterly basis, up from a revised 0.7% in the preceding three-month period when adjusted for seasonality and working days, Turkiye’s statistics office said on Monday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists projected an expansion of 0.6%.The economy grew 4.8% annually, compared with the median estimate of 4.1% in the survey and a revised 2.3% in the preceding quarter. The acceleration was largely down to the higher number of working days Turkiye had this year compared to 2024, QNB Turkiye economists led by Erkin Isik said in a research note ahead of the data release.The surprise boost came after the Turkish central bank raised interest rates in an unscheduled meeting in March to mitigate the market fallout following the jailing of a prominent opposition politician, reversing a cycle of rate cuts it had just begun. Even so, domestic demand climbed at the fastest pace in more than a year, leading the surge in annual growth. The central bank resumed its cuts in July, lowering the main policy rate to 43% from 46%.Spending by households, which is the main driver of Turkiye’s economy, rose 5.1%, the highest rate since the first quarter of 2024, Turkstat said.“On the surface, Turkiye’s especially strong growth data for the second quarter could be seen as reason to derail the central bank’s easing path. But activity is likely to post slower gains ahead and we maintain our call for rate cuts at all remaining meetings this year amid falling inflation,” says Selva Bahar Baziki, economist, Bloomberg Economics.“Today’s figures provide worrying evidence that domestic demand is too strong, which may prevent the current account deficit from narrowing further and inflation from falling as quickly as policymakers want,” Capital Economics’ chief emerging markets economist William Jackson said in a note. Though August inflation figures, which will be released on Wednesday, will give a better sense of that, Monday’s GDP report suggests the central bank “will not lower interest rates as quickly as we currently expect,” he said. Jackson currently sees the main policy rate reduced to 37% at the end of the year.Gross fixed capital formation, a measure of investments by businesses, soared by nearly 9% in the second quarter from a year earlier, while exports of goods and services increased by 1.7% from a year earlier, and up from 0.1% the prior quarter.The lira was little changed after the data release, trading 0.1% higher at 41.1182 per the US dollar at 10.57am in Istanbul.Monday’s release marks the first time Turkstat published revised growth data, which the agency said was carried out for better compliance with international peers.

Qatar’s GDP growth will more than double in 2026-2027, with both the energy and non-energy sectors contributing positively this year and beyond, according to Oxford Economics.The researcher’s 2025 GDP growth forecast is unchanged at 2.4%, similar to the pace of expansion last year. However, trade-related uncertainty will remain a headwind to global demand, it said in a country report.Oxford Economics thinks growth in Qatar’s energy sector will remain modest this year, following a 0.6% expansion in 2024, before picking up strongly in 2026-2027.According to Oxford Economics, Qatar isn't involved in the OPEC+ pact on production quotas and its oil output has been relatively flat in recent years, at around 600,000 barrels per day.Last year, the authorities doubled down on the North Field gas expansion project, which will have a positive medium-term impact. Qatar raised its liquefied natural gas capacity target to 142mn tonnes per year by end-2030.This is up nearly 85% from the current 77mtpy, and up 13% on the intermediate target of 126mtpy by 2027. The first production boost will come from the North Field East project by mid-2026, followed by the North Field South phase of the expansion.The North Field West phase is in its early stages, with construction likely to begin in 2027.Qatar is also making progress in contracting future gas output. The government has signed long-term supply contracts with India, China, France, Germany, Hungary, Kuwait, and Taiwan, and is negotiating a deal with Japan.Output data (reported in April this year) showed the non-energy economy expanded by 3.4% last year, and the researcher projects the same pace of growth in 2025.The 2025 budget targets a deficit of QR13.2bn (1.6% of projected GDP). The authorities plan to raise spending by 4.6% relative to last year's budget and 1.2% relative to realised expenditure, with a strong focus on development in education and healthcare. The bill assumes an average oil price of $60/barrel.It projects a surplus of QR23bn (2.8% of GDP), larger than the surplus of QAR5.6bn (0.7% of GDP) realised in 2024. The researcher sees the balance improving to 5.7% of GDP next year amid the LNG production boost.Oxford Economics also noted tourism has provided significant support to non- energy growth and will remain a driver of future activity and employment.Qatar welcomed 5.1mn overnight arrivals in 2024, a 25% increase on 2023 and 138% higher than 2019 levels. The launch of the pan-GCC visa will likely help extend the positive performance and we forecast arrivals to increase to 5.3mn this year, it said.