Airbus finished last year as the world’s largest aircraft manufacturer by deliveries. Boeing, however, has reclaimed something it has not held for most of the past decade: The lead in annual orders. That split tells you almost everything you need to know about where the duopoly stands at the end at the start of 2026, and where the real contest is now being fought.On one side sits Airbus, delivering aircraft at scale in a supply-constrained world. On the other sits Boeing, still working through the consequences of years of industrial and regulatory disruption, but increasingly successful at selling the future. The divergence between deliveries and orders is not a contradiction. It is the defining feature of the market right now.By year-end, Airbus delivered 793 commercial aircraft, narrowly exceeding a revised target after acknowledging it could no longer reach its earlier ambition of around 820. Boeing, meanwhile, delivered 600 aircraft, its highest annual total since 2018 and a material improvement on recent years. The delivery gap remains wide, but the direction of travel matters. Boeing’s output is rising from a low base, while Airbus is grappling with the limits of a stretched supply chain.Where Boeing surprised the market was on the sales side. The US manufacturer secured 1,075 gross orders after cancellations and conversions, edging past Airbus, which reported 1,000 gross orders for the year. It is the first time this decade that Boeing has outsold its European rival on an annual basis. The symbolism is significant, even if the underlying drivers are more complex than a simple commercial resurgence.Politics played a role, and few in the industry dispute that. Governments and flag carriers placed large orders for American aircraft during a year marked by renewed trade tensions and the re-emergence of transactional diplomacy. Boeing benefited directly from that environment. Orders from Qatar Airways, Japan, and South Korea were announced in close proximity to high-level political engagement with Washington. Christian Scherer, Airbus’ outgoing head of commercial aircraft, acknowledged publicly that Boeing had enjoyed “political backing”. He was stating an obvious reality rather than lodging a complaint.The Qatar Airways order alone underlined the scale of that political-commercial alignment. The commitment for up to 210 widebody aircraft, including large numbers of 787 Dreamliners and 777X jets, is one of the biggest widebody deals ever signed. Japan’s agreement to purchase 100 Boeing aircraft as part of a broader trade arrangement, and Korean Air’s record order announced shortly after presidential talks in Washington, followed the same pattern. These were not marginal campaigns. They reshaped Boeing’s backlog almost overnight.At the same time, Boeing’s recovery is not purely diplomatic. Under Kelly Ortberg, who took over as chief executive in August 2024, the company has stabilised its finances, improved labour relations, and brought a measure of predictability back to the 737 Max programme. The Federal Aviation Administration’s decision to restore Boeing’s ability to issue its own airworthiness certificates for the 737 Max and 787 Dreamliner marked a turning point. The subsequent increase in the Max production cap from 38 to 42 aircraft per month sent a clear signal that regulatory confidence, while cautious, is rebuilding.Boeing’s long-awaited acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems has also changed the industrial equation. Bringing a critical supplier back inside the group was not cheap, but it addressed a structural vulnerability that had become impossible to ignore, particularly after the Alaska Airlines door plug failure in early 2024. The message to customers and regulators was straightforward: Boeing understands that control of quality cannot be outsourced.Airbus, for its part, remains the stronger industrial machine. Deliveries continue to flow, particularly across the A320 family, which accounted for more than 600 aircraft last year. The A350 programme has also gained momentum as supply chain pressures eased, and widebody production became more predictable. Yet Airbus’ performance should not be mistaken for ease. Engine shortages, particularly linked to Pratt & Whitney’s geared turbofan issues, continue to disrupt delivery schedules. Cabin interiors, avionics, and fuselage quality problems have added friction at precisely the moment when airlines are desperate for capacity.That tension explains why Airbus cut its delivery target late in the year while reaffirming its financial guidance. Cash generation remains solid, but the pathway to higher output is neither linear nor guaranteed. Airbus’ backlog has climbed to a record 8,754 aircraft, including a widebody backlog of more than 1,100. The challenge is not demand. It is execution.This is where the current cycle becomes interesting. Deliveries matter because they generate cash and put aircraft into service. Orders matter because they signal long-term confidence and shape the competitive landscape for decades. Airbus is winning today’s operational contest. Boeing is rebuilding tomorrows.Investors have taken notice. Boeing’s share price rose nearly 45% over the past year as markets bought into the narrative of a slow, disciplined turnaround rather than a dramatic rebound. Airbus’ valuation reflects steadier performance but also the reality that it is already operating closer to its industrial ceiling.The wider context matters too. Airlines are ordering with a different mindset than they did five or ten years ago. Flexibility, fleet commonality, and long-term support matter as much as headline performance figures. Political considerations have re-entered fleet planning in a way many believed belonged to an earlier era. Manufacturers are no longer competing solely on product and price. They are navigating a landscape where geopolitics, trade policy, and industrial sovereignty influence purchasing decisions.Competition between Airbus and Boeing has always been cyclical. What feels different now is the asymmetry. Airbus is defending a position of operational strength while managing constraint. Boeing is climbing back from disruption with the help of political tailwinds and renewed customer engagement. Both are credible. Neither is comfortable.Looking ahead, the balance between deliveries and orders will remain uneven. Airbus will continue to hand over more aircraft in the near term. Boeing will continue to rebuild its backlog and production credibility step by step. The question is not which manufacturer “won” 2025. It is whether Boeing can translate order momentum into sustained industrial performance, and whether Airbus can lift output without compromising quality in a system already under strain.The author is an aviation analyst. X handle: @AlexInAir.
