Oxford Economics sees Qatar government fiscal surplus at 8.8% this year and in 2023, before falling back to 7.3% in 2024.
Credit ratings agency S&P upgraded its rating for Qatar and maintained stable outlook, following on from Moody's positive credit outlook change last week.
This, researcher Oxford Economics noted, “reflects the shrinking debt burden as, like the rest of the region, Qatar's economy benefits from higher oil and gas prices, but also an expectation that government spending will moderate in the medium term after the World Cup.
Qatar’s inflation will moderate to 2.1% in 2023 from 4.3% this year, Oxford Economics said.
The country’s fiscal balance has been forecast at 9% of GDP this year and 9.3% in 2023 by Oxford Economics.
The country’s current account surplus, according to Oxford Economics will be 16.8% of its GDP this year and 14.9% in 2023.
Qatar’s real GDP growth has been forecast at 3.6% this year and 3.5% in 2023.
On COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, it said the climate summit has also put the spotlight on climate action in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has committed $2.5bn worth of spending on green initiatives, including support for renewable energy sources and clean hydrogen production, as the country aims to become a pioneer for climate change.
The Arab Co-ordination Group also pledged $24bn by 2030 to fund the energy transition, climate resilience, and energy security in developing countries. Egypt and the UAE also made significant agreements on renewables.
With Egypt as the host of this year's conference, the divide between the climate concerns of developing economies and developed economies will be more apparent. Egypt has noted it will steer the COP27 focus to adaptation and climate finance.
These issues are more pressing for developing economies given their exposure to physical climate risks and budget constraints amid competing development demands.
“We expect COP27 to build on the momentum generated by COP26, but progress has so far been underwhelming. Climate goals remain elusive, and current nationally determined contributions (NDC) pledges will likely lead to significant warming above industrial levels.
“The key takeaway for the green transition is that it needs to be just and equitable if developing economies are to actively engage in the climate agenda, and developed economies need to take the lead. Our Sustainable Development Scenario for our Global Climate Service sees the policy burden fall more on advanced economies and those with large emissions,” Oxford Economics noted.
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