Demand for airline pilots will outstrip supply in most regions globally between 2022 and 2024 with the Middle East feeling the effects first as air travel demand continues to recover this year, according to Oliver Wyman, a global leader in management consulting.
"We expect the Middle East to be the region affected soonest by the shortage outside of North America, driven by a projected sharp increase in air travel demand over the next few years. The region could face a shortage of 3,000 pilots by 2023 and 18,000 by 2032," it said in a report.
André Martins, Partner – Head of IMEA Transportation and Services at Oliver Wyman, said the Middle East region is expected to be affected, driven by a projected sharp increase in air travel demand over the next few years, new players entering the market and big tourism developments happening in the region”.
The new figures from Oliver Wyman show that this spike in demand for air travel coincides with flat then declining supply of pilots in the region, due to a combination of lay-offs during the Covid-19 pandemic, a falling number of newly-certified pilots, and retirements eventually outstripping new pilots.
“If demand for air travel continues to grow, airlines need to accelerate recruiting efforts from other regions where we anticipate less acute shortages, particularly Latin America and Asia Pacific, to fill gaps. Failing that, we may see adjustment of schedules into and out of the region, impacting the Middle East’s carriers and airport operators” Martins said.
Oliver Wyman forecasted in early 2021 that an impending pilot shortage was on the horizon, contrary to reality at the time, as Covid-19 was decimating the airline industry and any recovery appeared years away.
"We are now predicting global aviation to be short nearly 80,000 pilots by 2032, absent a downturn in future demand or air travel and/or strenuous efforts by the industry to bolster the supply of pilots," the report said.
Elsewhere in the world, the report said Europe currently is in surplus and "we expect it to remain so until the middle of the decade", but then forecast a shortage of 19,000 pilots by 2032, driven predominately by increased demand.
Asia currently has a surplus of pilots as well, mainly on the impacts of Covid-19 restrictions on demand, but it anticipates that Asia will begin to see a shortage of pilots toward the end of the decade as demand growth resumes.
Stressing that only two regions are unlikely to see a growing shortage of pilots over the decade, it said demand is not expected to outpace supply in Latin America, and a small shortage of pilots in Africa is expected to shrink over the decade, as pilot availability increases.
"We expect the Middle East to be the region affected soonest by the shortage outside of North America, driven by a projected sharp increase in air travel demand over the next few years. The region could face a shortage of 3,000 pilots by 2023 and 18,000 by 2032," it said in a report.
André Martins, Partner – Head of IMEA Transportation and Services at Oliver Wyman, said the Middle East region is expected to be affected, driven by a projected sharp increase in air travel demand over the next few years, new players entering the market and big tourism developments happening in the region”.
The new figures from Oliver Wyman show that this spike in demand for air travel coincides with flat then declining supply of pilots in the region, due to a combination of lay-offs during the Covid-19 pandemic, a falling number of newly-certified pilots, and retirements eventually outstripping new pilots.
“If demand for air travel continues to grow, airlines need to accelerate recruiting efforts from other regions where we anticipate less acute shortages, particularly Latin America and Asia Pacific, to fill gaps. Failing that, we may see adjustment of schedules into and out of the region, impacting the Middle East’s carriers and airport operators” Martins said.
Oliver Wyman forecasted in early 2021 that an impending pilot shortage was on the horizon, contrary to reality at the time, as Covid-19 was decimating the airline industry and any recovery appeared years away.
"We are now predicting global aviation to be short nearly 80,000 pilots by 2032, absent a downturn in future demand or air travel and/or strenuous efforts by the industry to bolster the supply of pilots," the report said.
Elsewhere in the world, the report said Europe currently is in surplus and "we expect it to remain so until the middle of the decade", but then forecast a shortage of 19,000 pilots by 2032, driven predominately by increased demand.
Asia currently has a surplus of pilots as well, mainly on the impacts of Covid-19 restrictions on demand, but it anticipates that Asia will begin to see a shortage of pilots toward the end of the decade as demand growth resumes.
Stressing that only two regions are unlikely to see a growing shortage of pilots over the decade, it said demand is not expected to outpace supply in Latin America, and a small shortage of pilots in Africa is expected to shrink over the decade, as pilot availability increases.
