Power generation will be the key driver of natural gas demand growth, accounting for 42% of incremental gas demand volumes through to 2050, according to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
This is in contrast to the residential and commercial sector, which is projected to provide just 7% of the total gas demand growth between 2020 and 2050, GECF said in its latest Global Gas Outlook 2050.
The power generation sector will represent the largest growth engine thanks to the substantial rise in electricity demand as well as government policies and regulatory initiatives to phase out coal-fired capacity and nuclear power plants in some regions.
In addition, with progressive solar and wind capacity additions, the need for flexibility as a pillar of electricity security will mount, and gas-fired power generation is expected to play a growing role in helping to balance variable renewables and providing stability of power systems. Batteries and demand-side response will cover part of that role, but they are unlikely to be able to offer long-duration and seasonal storage.
In this context, dispatchable, low-emission generating capacities will become more central to the provision of system flexibility and gas-fired generation will remain the primary choice.
Overall, between 2020 and 2050, gas demand in the power generation sector will increase by 755bcm (or by 55%) to 2,130bcm by 2050, GECF noted.
At a regional level, Asia Pacific and Africa will contribute the most to this growth, together accounting for more than 70% of the increase, although Latin America and the Middle East will also demonstrate a considerable rise.
Europe will be the only region to experience an evident declining trend. However, gas in this sector will remain resilient in the coming decade, filling part of the gap left by retiring nuclear and coal capacities, but gradually falling thereafter as renewables growth strengthens.
Global electricity generation will more than double from 26,460TWh in 2020 to almost 54,500TWh. Simultaneously, the power generation mix continues to shift towards low-carbon sources. Assertive development of renewables will push their share from 10% in 2020 up to 46% by 2050, while the share of coal – the main fuel to lose ground – will fall from 35% to 13%.
The shares of hydro and nuclear, despite output rising in absolute terms, will also decrease, although much less sharply, and will provide nearly 11% and 7% of the power generation mix respectively in 2050.
Gas-fired generation, which will meet around 16% of rising electricity needs over the forecast horizon, will maintain its current share in the generation mix at 24% until the early 2030s, decreasing thereafter to 20% by 2050.
In terms of gas-fired capacity additions, an expansion from 1,892GW in 2020 to 3,170GW by 2050 is forecast, given all the commissioning and retirements within the outlook period, GECF said.
This is in contrast to the residential and commercial sector, which is projected to provide just 7% of the total gas demand growth between 2020 and 2050, GECF said in its latest Global Gas Outlook 2050.
The power generation sector will represent the largest growth engine thanks to the substantial rise in electricity demand as well as government policies and regulatory initiatives to phase out coal-fired capacity and nuclear power plants in some regions.
In addition, with progressive solar and wind capacity additions, the need for flexibility as a pillar of electricity security will mount, and gas-fired power generation is expected to play a growing role in helping to balance variable renewables and providing stability of power systems. Batteries and demand-side response will cover part of that role, but they are unlikely to be able to offer long-duration and seasonal storage.
In this context, dispatchable, low-emission generating capacities will become more central to the provision of system flexibility and gas-fired generation will remain the primary choice.
Overall, between 2020 and 2050, gas demand in the power generation sector will increase by 755bcm (or by 55%) to 2,130bcm by 2050, GECF noted.
At a regional level, Asia Pacific and Africa will contribute the most to this growth, together accounting for more than 70% of the increase, although Latin America and the Middle East will also demonstrate a considerable rise.
Europe will be the only region to experience an evident declining trend. However, gas in this sector will remain resilient in the coming decade, filling part of the gap left by retiring nuclear and coal capacities, but gradually falling thereafter as renewables growth strengthens.
Global electricity generation will more than double from 26,460TWh in 2020 to almost 54,500TWh. Simultaneously, the power generation mix continues to shift towards low-carbon sources. Assertive development of renewables will push their share from 10% in 2020 up to 46% by 2050, while the share of coal – the main fuel to lose ground – will fall from 35% to 13%.
The shares of hydro and nuclear, despite output rising in absolute terms, will also decrease, although much less sharply, and will provide nearly 11% and 7% of the power generation mix respectively in 2050.
Gas-fired generation, which will meet around 16% of rising electricity needs over the forecast horizon, will maintain its current share in the generation mix at 24% until the early 2030s, decreasing thereafter to 20% by 2050.
In terms of gas-fired capacity additions, an expansion from 1,892GW in 2020 to 3,170GW by 2050 is forecast, given all the commissioning and retirements within the outlook period, GECF said.
