Qatar's nominal GDP has been forecast at $203.9bn in 2023, according to Emirates NBD, which said both higher oil price assumption and increased production (by those who have the capacity) are positive for GCC sovereigns.
This year, the regional banking group has forecast Qatar’s nominal GDP at $208bn.
Real GDP growth has been forecast at 5.1% this year and 2.8% in 2023.
Qatar’s current account as a percentage of the GDP has been forecast at 4.8 this year and 3.8 in 2023.
Budget balance as a percentage of the GDP has been forecast at 2.3 this year and 1.7 in 2023.
In light of developments in the oil market since the start of this year, Emirates NBD has revised both its oil price assumptions and GCC production forecasts higher for 2022.
“We had assumed that Opec+ would restrain production below their target levels to avoid over-supplying markets. However, given the tightness in oil markets in Q1 and the inability of some Opec+ members to deliver their monthly production increases, we now expect GCC oil producers – who have the capacity to do so – to increase production to their baseline levels by the end of next year,” Emirates NBD said.
Both the higher oil price assumption and increased production are positive for GCC sovereigns, Emirates NBD said and noted “improving budget balances and resulting in higher headline GDP growth estimates” for this year.
However, Emirates NBD retains its view that governments in the region are unlikely to boost general spending as a result of the expected oil windfall, and will remain committed to diversifying both their budgets and their real economies away from oil over the coming years.
Bahrain has pushed ahead with a doubling of its VAT rate this year to 10% while the UAE has announced a new corporate tax which will come into effect from mid-2023. Consequently, Emirates NBD does not expect higher oil revenues to feed through to significantly faster non-oil sector growth in the GCC.
While there will be additional money for investment in key strategic sectors, mainly through sovereign investment funds, higher petrol prices are likely to weigh on household consumption.
“A faster pace of monetary tightening in the US relative to our expectations at the start of this year is also likely to be a headwind to growth in the non-oil sectors of the GCC economies. As a result, we have kept our non-oil growth forecasts in the GCC largely unchanged, even as oil and gas GDP forecasts are revised sharply higher,” Emirates NBD added.
This year, the regional banking group has forecast Qatar’s nominal GDP at $208bn.
Real GDP growth has been forecast at 5.1% this year and 2.8% in 2023.
Qatar’s current account as a percentage of the GDP has been forecast at 4.8 this year and 3.8 in 2023.
Budget balance as a percentage of the GDP has been forecast at 2.3 this year and 1.7 in 2023.
In light of developments in the oil market since the start of this year, Emirates NBD has revised both its oil price assumptions and GCC production forecasts higher for 2022.
“We had assumed that Opec+ would restrain production below their target levels to avoid over-supplying markets. However, given the tightness in oil markets in Q1 and the inability of some Opec+ members to deliver their monthly production increases, we now expect GCC oil producers – who have the capacity to do so – to increase production to their baseline levels by the end of next year,” Emirates NBD said.
Both the higher oil price assumption and increased production are positive for GCC sovereigns, Emirates NBD said and noted “improving budget balances and resulting in higher headline GDP growth estimates” for this year.
However, Emirates NBD retains its view that governments in the region are unlikely to boost general spending as a result of the expected oil windfall, and will remain committed to diversifying both their budgets and their real economies away from oil over the coming years.
Bahrain has pushed ahead with a doubling of its VAT rate this year to 10% while the UAE has announced a new corporate tax which will come into effect from mid-2023. Consequently, Emirates NBD does not expect higher oil revenues to feed through to significantly faster non-oil sector growth in the GCC.
While there will be additional money for investment in key strategic sectors, mainly through sovereign investment funds, higher petrol prices are likely to weigh on household consumption.
“A faster pace of monetary tightening in the US relative to our expectations at the start of this year is also likely to be a headwind to growth in the non-oil sectors of the GCC economies. As a result, we have kept our non-oil growth forecasts in the GCC largely unchanged, even as oil and gas GDP forecasts are revised sharply higher,” Emirates NBD added.