| Beyond the Tarmac |
Although the global aviation industry suffered a huge downturn due to the Covid-19 pandemic, with a drop from 4.5bn travellers in 2019 to 1.8bn in 2020, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that by 2050 more than 10bn trips will be made by airplanes every year.
A question that naturally arises then is how passengers can take 10bn flights a year without contributing to global warming?
However, the aviation industry’s renewed commitment will align with the Paris Agreement goal for global warming not to exceed 1.5°C.
Under the Paris accord, countries agreed to limit the rise in global temperatures from pre-industrial levels to 2 degrees Celsius and preferably to 1.5 degrees. To do that, scientists say the world needs to cut emissions to net zero by 2050.
The airline industry admits achieving net zero emissions will be a huge challenge. The aviation industry must progressively reduce its emissions while accommodating the growing demand of a world that is eager to fly, the International Air Transport Association noted.
To be able to serve the needs of the 10bn people expected to fly in 2050, at least 1.8 gigatons of carbon must be abated in that year, IATA points out.
Moreover, the net zero commitment implies that a cumulative total of 21.2 gigatons of carbon will be abated between now and 2050, a mammoth task, to say the least!
The industry has laid a strategy to abate as much CO2 as possible from in-sector solutions such as sustainable aviation fuels, new aircraft technology, more efficient operations and infrastructure, and the development of new zero-emissions energy sources such as electric and hydrogen power.
Any emissions that cannot be eliminated at source will be eliminated through out-of-sector options such as carbon capture and storage and credible offsetting schemes.
“We have a plan. The scale of the industry in 2050 will require the mitigation of 1.8 gigatons of carbon. A potential scenario is that 65% of this will be abated through sustainable aviation fuels. We would expect new propulsion technology, such as hydrogen, to take care of another 13%. And efficiency improvements will account for a further 3%. The remainder could be dealt with through carbon capture and storage (11%) and offsets (8%). The actual split, and the trajectory to get there, will depend on what solutions are the most cost-effective at any particular time. “Whatever the ultimate path to net zero will be, it is absolutely true that the only way to get there will be with the value chain and governments playing their role,” Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General said at the recently concluded association's AGM in Boston.
Clearly, IATA says the main solution lies in the use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), which would allow the industry to get 65% of the way toward its goal.
These fuels – made from biomass, waste oils and could even be made from carbon capture in the future – have the advantage that they can be used directly in existing aircraft, which are designed to run on 50% blends of kerosene. And such fuel sources can reduce CO2 emissions by 80% compared to kerosene over their entire life cycle.
Airbus and Boeing have pledged that their fleets will be able to fly 100% on SAF by 2030, broadcaster France 24 reported. That said, SAF accounts for less than 0.1% of aviation fuel currently used.
As it stands, the aviation sector produces 900mn tons of CO2 every year, according to IATA. By 2050, if nothing is done to reduce the industry's carbon footprint that will rise to 1.8bn tons.
This means over the next 30 years, some 21.2bn tons of CO2 would be released into the atmosphere. Reducing this level to gradually achieve net zero emissions in 2050 poses an enormous technological challenge that the global body of airlines estimates will cost companies around $1.55tn between 2020 and 2050.
But the airline industry move sparked a backlash from Chinese airlines, which according to Reuters, "mirrors differences between Beijing and the West" over environmental policy weeks ahead of new global talks in Glasgow.
China Eastern, one of China’s “big-three” state carriers and the world’s fourth-largest domestic operator, said airlines should recognise specific challenges for developing countries – a thorny and recurring issue in global climate negotiations.
The energy transition needed to achieve net zero must be supported by a holistic government policy framework focused on realising cost-effective solutions. This is particularly true in the area of SAF. Technology exists, but production incentives are needed to increase supply and lower costs.
Undoubtedly, the path from stabilising emissions to emission reduction requires a collective effort. All industry stakeholders, including governments must each individually take responsibility to address the environmental impact of their policies, products, and activities.
And importantly, they must work together to deliver sustainable connectivity and ultimately break aviation’s heavy dependence on fossil fuels.