Qatar’s GDP per capita has been forecast at $60,898 this year and may exceed $70,000 by 2025, researcher FocusEconomics has said in a report.
Next year, it has been forecast at $63,978 and $65,470 in 2023 and $67,764 in 2024.
The country’s GDP, FocusEconomics said will exceed $171bn this year, $180bn (2022), $185bn (2023), $192bn (2024) and $199bn (2025).
Qatar may see its merchandise trade balance at $41bn this year, $41.3bn (2022), $42.3bn (2023), $45bn (2024) and $49.4bn (2025).
FocusEconomics forecasts Qatar’s current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) will scale up to 7.3 in 2025 from 5.3 this year. Next year, it will be 5.2 and 4.8 (2023) and 6.0 (2024).
Fiscal balance (as a percentage of GDP) will be 1.6 this year, 2.6 (2022), 2.3 (2023) and 2.1 (2024).
The country’s public debt (as a percentage of GDP) will fall to 55.4 in 2025 from 65.8 this year. Next year, it will be 61.5, 60 (2023) and 57.7 in 2024.
Qatar’s inflation has been forecast at 1.4 this year and 2.3 (2022), 1.7 (2023), 1.7 (2024) and 1.8 (2025).
FocusEconomics noted the country’s economy shrank 2.5% year-on-year in Q1, a milder contraction than in Q4, with the declines in both the energy and non-energy sectors moderating.
Within the non-energy sector, the accommodation and food services subsector returned to "growth", aided by a "favourable" base effect due to the pandemic disrupting travel in Q1 last year, while manufacturing output also expanded.
However, the transport subsector remained extremely downbeat.
Turning to Q2, "tougher" Covid-19 restrictions early in the quarter appeared to weigh on the non-energy sector, as suggested by falling PMI readings in April and May. However, the "progressive easing" of restrictions from late May likely boosted activity towards the end of Q2 and heading into Q3, with the PMI spiking in June.
Meanwhile, the latest signs for the energy sector are "positive", with mining and quarrying output expanding in annual terms in April and May.
According to FocusEconomics, "the economy is set to return to growth this year as foreign demand strengthens and looser restrictions at home aid domestic activity."
Investment in the energy sector and easing tensions with Gulf neighbours should also provide support.
However, the potential extension of restrictions and new variants of Covid-19 pose downside risks.
FocusEconomics panellists see a 2.7% rise in GDP in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, before growth of 3.8% in 2022.
Inflation fell to 2.0% in June from 2.5% in May. Price pressures should be notably higher this year than last due to higher food and energy costs, recovering activity and a supportive base effect.
They see consumer prices rising 1.4% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2022, its panel sees inflation averaging 2.3%.