Aviation Page - Beyond the Tarmac
The pandemic has decimated the global airline industry, landing many carriers in the red, or forcing them to shut down operations altogether.
Obviously, this has resulted in thousands of pilots among other aviation personnel being furloughed around the world.
But as the industry prepares for long-term air travel recovery from the pandemic, driven by massive vaccine roll out around the globe, many industry experts say a pilot shortage will still loom.
While the current industry downturn, induced by Covid-19, has resulted in a temporary oversupply of qualified personnel, the long-term need remains robust, aerospace giant Boeing said in its ‘Pilot and Technician Outlook 2020-2039’.
The Boeing outlook shows pilot retirements coinciding with the industry’s recovery timeframe and forecasts the need for 605,000 new commercial pilots globally over the next 20 years.
According to Boeing, the Middle East (led by the GCC region) will require in excess of 234,000 of new aviation personnel including pilots, technicians and cabin crew between 2020 and 2039.
Two experts at American management consulting firm Oliver Wyman's transportation practice – Geoff Murray and Taylor Cornwall noted, “An important question facing the airline industry is not whether it will face a pilot shortage, but when it will begin.”
With the number of flights reduced to a fraction of what they were before the pandemic, it's hard to imagine that there could be a pilot shortage on the horizon, they told CNN Business.
As of February, global airlines were only flying at about 47% of pre-Covid capacity, based on Oliver Wyman’s analysis of data from OAG and the International Air Transport Association.
But by 2025, after global demand in domestic and international travel expands beyond 2019 levels, they expect a worldwide shortfall of at least 34,000 commercial pilots — almost 10% of the total workforce.
“That gap, which will begin to be felt as early as next year, is based on a modest recovery scenario. If we were to see a more rapid recovery, that shortage could reach 50,000.”
Therefore, a major question facing the aviation industry is when demand will return. For passenger recovery, estimates range from early 2022 to 2024 and beyond.
For pilots, however, demand is driven by aircraft departures and utilisation rather than passengers.
The global in-service fleet has already recovered in size to 76% of pre-Covid levels. In China, where the outbreak was earlier and better controlled, the in-service fleet is already at 99%.
While utilisation and resulting block hours still lag historic levels globally, Oliver Wyman expects the demand for pilots to precede the recovery of passenger growth by two to three quarters.
In recent years, airlines have provided a more direct path to the cockpit for new pilots, expanding cadet training programmes and providing financing. With Covid-19, many of the airline pipeline levers have come under pressure. Faced with mounting costs and a pilot surplus, cadet programmes are being trimmed. Some of the banks that have supported the financing are reconsidering the risk profile of a new pilot cadet.
Finally, the attraction of a “stable and lucrative” career path now looks “much less secure”, Oliver Wyman points out.
“We were deep into a pilot shortage pre-Covid, meaning that the second a pilot was qualified, they were being hired by an airline,” Kenneth Byrnes, associate dean and chairman of flight at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University told media company Skift.
While that’s no longer the case with the current state of the industry, experts and industry trade groups warn the pandemic has only put a pause on a shortage, that it hasn’t gone away with more pilots nearing the age of retirement and because of a continuing undersupply of new pilots.
Already during the first half of 2020, 50% of the pilot workforce was positioned to reach the mandatory stopping point — retirement — within 15 years, said Faye Malarkey Black, president and CEO of the Regional Airlines Association (RAA). Within the half of that workforce, 15% must retire in five years, Skift says.
Meeting the projected long-term demand will require a collective effort across the global aviation industry, Boeing emphasises.
As tens of thousands of pilots, technicians and cabin crew members reach retirement age over the next decade, educational outreach and career pathway programmes will be essential to inspiring and recruiting the next generation.
“Some personnel who are currently furloughed because of the market downturn will find employment in the government and business and general aviation sectors that have previously struggled with shortages amid surging commercial demand. Additionally, as commercial traffic demand returns in upcoming years, aspiring aviators will have the opportunity to fill open positions created by a combination of personnel retirements and fleet growth,” Boeing stated.
If a swift recovery becomes possible following the Covid-19 pandemic, airlines around the globe will struggle to secure a pipeline of new pilots.
And as the industry navigates the market downturn, effective training and an adequate supply of personnel remain critical to maintaining the health, safety and prosperity of the aviation ecosystem.
Pratap John is Business Editor at Gulf Times. Twitter handle: @PratapJohn
