* For 2021, world oil demand growth is expected at 5.9mn barrels per day, to stand at 96.3mn bpd, the Vienna-based organisation said in its latest report
Global oil demand is expected to be higher in the second half (H2) of this year, reflecting expectations for a stronger economic recovery with the positive impact of vaccination rollouts, Opec has said in a report.
For 2021, world oil demand growth is expected at 5.9mn barrels per day, to stand at 96.3mn bpd.
In regional terms, OECD oil demand is expected to increase by 2.6mn barrels per day (mbpd) this year to stand at 44.6mn bpd, while non-OECD demand is seen rising by 3.3mn bpd to average 51.6mn bpd, Opec said in its latest report.
Demand for Opec crude in 2021 is forecast to stand at 27.3mn bpd, around 4.9mn bpd higher than in 2020.
Spot crude prices surged by more than 13% in February to their highest monthly average since January 2020. Oil prices were supported by ongoing improvements in oil market fundamentals and a futures market that remained bullish in anticipation of a recovery in demand amid restrained global oil supplies, Opec said.
Oil prices extended gains after severe winter weather triggered a supply disruption in the US. The Opec Reference Basket (ORB) gained $6.67, or 12.3%, to average $61.05/b for the month.
Similarly, crude oil futures prices increased sharply in February on both sides of the Atlantic, with the ICE Brent front month up $6.96, or 12.6%, to average $62.28/b while NYMEX WTI rose $6.96, or 13.4%, to average $59.06/b.
Consequently, the Brent-WTI spread was unchanged in February, averaging $3.22/b. The forward curve of the three main futures prices – Brent, WTI and Dubai – steepened further in February as the market rebalancing process continued.
World oil demand in 2020 showed a contraction of 9.6mn bpd, to stand at 90.4n bpd.
Meanwhile, hedge funds and other money managers were bullish on the outlook for oil prices, further increasing combined futures and options net long positions linked to ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI to their highest point in more than a year.
Non-Opec liquids supply for 2021 is forecast to grow by almost 1mn bpd to average 63.8mn bpd. The US liquids supply forecast remains unchanged, with growth of 0.16mn bpd in 2021, although uncertainties persist.
The main contributors to supply growth are expected to be Canada, the US, Norway, Brazil and Russia.
Opec NGLs are forecast to grow by 0.08mn bpd in 2021 to average 5.2mn bpd, following a decline by 0.13mn bpd last year.
In February, Opec crude oil production decreased by 0.65 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 24.85mn bpd, the Vienna-based organisation said citing secondary sources.