The Covid-19 vaccine rollout is expected to boost Qatari economic growth this year, according to the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW).
"An increase in vaccination rates and the expansion of vaccination centres distributing both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will facilitate the lifting of restrictions by the second half of 2021 and lead to a re-acceleration in economic growth," said the latest Middle East Economic Update report for the first quarter of 2021, from Oxford Economics and commissioned by ICAEW.
So far, about 15% of the Qatari population has received at least one vaccine dose, according to Qatar’s Ministry of Public Health.
Overall, the ICAEW report forecasts gross domestic product or GDP growth of 2.8% this year, after an estimated 3.1% fall in 2020. It also states that growth will continue to expand steadily because of ongoing investments ahead of World Cup 2022 and rising gas production.
Qatar’s non-oil sector, which grew by an average of 1.2% per annum in 2017-19 and contracted by an estimated 3.9% in 2020, may expand by 3.3% in 2021.
"While the oil sector remains a drag on overall growth for the Qatar economy, preparation for the 2022 World Cup could play a huge role in an economic rebound. With the Covid-19 vaccine drive underway, the Qatar government must continue to ramp up economic diversification efforts by developing sectors and industries that generate net value for the economy and foster innovation, in line with the Qatar National Vision 2030," said Michael Armstrong, ICAEW Regional Director for the Middle East, Africa and South Asia.
The impact of the decline in non-oil GDP on jobs has been relatively modest, it said, adding Qatar stands out for its dependence on the contribution of expats, who account for over 90% of the population.
However, while the expat population declined by around 4.5% between March 2020 and January 2021, it is slated to gradually return as the economy recovers from the pandemic, it said.
Although trade performance remains disappointing, the report said vaccination progress globally will support external demand as the need for social distancing restrictions fades and borders re-open.
"This combined with the recent increase in natural gas prices should also support a recovery in export and budget receipts in the coming months," it added.
The resolve to the Gulf crisis is unlikely to provide an immediate boost to growth, but the report predicts that it will act as a foundation for post-Covid-19 recovery, particularly when borders re-open and travel resumes.
"More harmony in the GCC would boost the region’s attractiveness to foreign investors as the global economy recovers. While the upside potential would be greatest for Qatar, the benefits could accrue in the rest of the region too," said Scott Livermore, ICAEW economic advisor and chief economist at Oxford Economics.
"An increase in vaccination rates and the expansion of vaccination centres distributing both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will facilitate the lifting of restrictions by the second half of 2021 and lead to a re-acceleration in economic growth," said the latest Middle East Economic Update report for the first quarter of 2021, from Oxford Economics and commissioned by ICAEW.
So far, about 15% of the Qatari population has received at least one vaccine dose, according to Qatar’s Ministry of Public Health.
Overall, the ICAEW report forecasts gross domestic product or GDP growth of 2.8% this year, after an estimated 3.1% fall in 2020. It also states that growth will continue to expand steadily because of ongoing investments ahead of World Cup 2022 and rising gas production.
Qatar’s non-oil sector, which grew by an average of 1.2% per annum in 2017-19 and contracted by an estimated 3.9% in 2020, may expand by 3.3% in 2021.
"While the oil sector remains a drag on overall growth for the Qatar economy, preparation for the 2022 World Cup could play a huge role in an economic rebound. With the Covid-19 vaccine drive underway, the Qatar government must continue to ramp up economic diversification efforts by developing sectors and industries that generate net value for the economy and foster innovation, in line with the Qatar National Vision 2030," said Michael Armstrong, ICAEW Regional Director for the Middle East, Africa and South Asia.
The impact of the decline in non-oil GDP on jobs has been relatively modest, it said, adding Qatar stands out for its dependence on the contribution of expats, who account for over 90% of the population.
However, while the expat population declined by around 4.5% between March 2020 and January 2021, it is slated to gradually return as the economy recovers from the pandemic, it said.
Although trade performance remains disappointing, the report said vaccination progress globally will support external demand as the need for social distancing restrictions fades and borders re-open.
"This combined with the recent increase in natural gas prices should also support a recovery in export and budget receipts in the coming months," it added.
The resolve to the Gulf crisis is unlikely to provide an immediate boost to growth, but the report predicts that it will act as a foundation for post-Covid-19 recovery, particularly when borders re-open and travel resumes.
"More harmony in the GCC would boost the region’s attractiveness to foreign investors as the global economy recovers. While the upside potential would be greatest for Qatar, the benefits could accrue in the rest of the region too," said Scott Livermore, ICAEW economic advisor and chief economist at Oxford Economics.
