* FocusEconomics researchers see a 2.9% rise in Qatar's GDP in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022
Qatar economy is expected to see a rebound next year in both domestic and foreign demand; FocusEconomics said and noted it saw a 2.9% rise in GDP in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022.
In the third quarter (Q3) of the year, Qatar economy appeared to have staged a strong recovery, The non-energy private sector PMI averaged markedly higher compared to Q2, supported by the progressive lifting of restrictions on activity – the country entered phase four of the four-stage easing plan on September 1.
That said, the energy sector's performance was seemingly mixed, with a notable month-on-month decline in mining output in August after growth in July.
Turning to the final quarter (Q4), the external sector could be weighed on by rising Covid-19 infection rates abroad, although low infections at home have so far allowed the government to keep the domestic economy open.
According to FocusEconomics, the economy contracted 6.1% in the second quarter according to recent data, weighed on by a collapse in the non-energy sector due to lockdown restrictions and a milder downturn in the energy sector.
Consumer prices fell 3% in September in annual terms, following August's 4.1% drop, on lower prices for recreation and culture, and housing and utilities. Prices are seen declining over 2020 as a whole before rising next year as activity recovers.
FocusEconomics panellists see consumer prices falling 1.1% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. In 2022, its panel sees inflation averaging 1.9%.
Qatar’s GDP may scale up to $215bn in 2025 from $157bn this year, researcher FocusEconomics has said in a report.
Next year, Qatar’s GDP is projected to reach $167bn, followed by $177bn (2022), $190bn in 2023 and $202bn in 2024.
Qatar’s international reserves are expected to total $37.6bn by 2024, FocusEconomics said.
The country’s international reserves are projected at $34bn this year, $34.1bn (2021), $35.8bn (2022) and $36.7bn in 2023.
Qatar’s merchandise trade balance, which is the difference in value between imported and exported goods, is expected to reach $45.3bn in 2025, latest country forecast by FocusEconomics has shown.
This year, the country’s merchandise trade balance has been forecast to total $26.2bn, followed by $29.1bn (in 2021), $30.4bn (2022), $34.5bn (2023) and $39.5bn in 2024.
The report said Qatar’s fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP is set to rise to 3.2% in 2025 from an estimated -7.6% this year.
According to FocusEconomics, Qatar’s public debt (as a percentage of GDP) has been forecast at 72% this year.
GDP per capita, FocusEconomics said, has been estimated to reach $75,694 in 2025 from $56,078 this year.
GDP per capita next year will be $59,554, followed by $62,951 in 2022, $67,208 in 2023 and $71,462 in 2024.
Qatar’s economic growth in terms of nominal GDP will reach 6.2% in 2025 from -10.6% by the year-end.
Next year, economic growth in terms of nominal GDP will be 6.4%, 6% in 2022, 7% in 2023 and 6.6% in 2024.
The current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) will be 3.5 in 2025 compared with -4.1 in 2020, -1.5 (2021), 3.7 (2022), 4.4 in 2023, 5.9 in 2024.
The country’s inflation, the report noted, will be -2.2% this year, 1.1% (2021), 1.9% (2022), 2% (2023), 1.8% in 2024 and 1.7% (2025).
Qatar’s unemployment rate (as a percentage of active population) will remain a meagre 0.2% in 2025, from 0.4% this year.
Next year it will be 0.3%, 0.2% in 2022, 2023 and 2024, FocusEconomics said.
