*The country's international reserves are expected to total $37.9bn by 2024, according to FocusEconomics
Qatar’s GDP may scale up to $208bn in 2024 from $162bn this year, researcher FocusEconomics has said in a report.
Next year, Qatar’s GDP is projected to reach $174bn, followed by $185bn (2022) and $196bn in 2023.
Qatar’s international reserves are expected to total $37.9bn by 2024, FocusEconomics said.
The country’s international reserves are projected at $36bn this year, $35.7bn (2021), $36.3bn (2022) and $37.1bn in 2023.
Qatar’s merchandise trade balance, which is the difference in value between imported and exported goods, is expected to reach $39.7bn in 2024, latest country forecast by FocusEconomics has shown.
This year, the country’s merchandise trade balance has been forecast to total $26.2bn, followed by $30.7bn (in 2021), $33.4bn (2022) and $36.4bn (2023).
The report said Qatar’s fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP is set to rise to 3.3% in 2024 from an estimated -7.4% this year.
According to FocusEconomics, Qatar’s public debt (as a percentage of GDP) has been forecast at 71% this year.
GDP per capita, FocusEconomics said, has been estimated to reach $74,550 in 2024 from $58,649 this year.
GDP per capita next year will be $62,745, followed by $66,615 in 2022 and $70,593 in 2023.
Qatar’s economic growth in terms of nominal GDP will reach 5.9% in 2024 from -11.8% by the year-end.
Next year, economic growth in terms of nominal GDP will be 7.2%, 6.4% in 2022 and 6.2% in 2023.
The current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) will be 1.6 in 2024 compared with -4.1 in 2020, -0.4 (2021), 1.4 (2022) and 1.5 in 2023.
The country’s inflation, the report noted, will be -1.8% this year, 1.2% (2021), 1.7% (2022), 1.8% (2023) and 1.9% in 2024.
Qatar’s unemployment rate (as a percentage of active population) will remain a meagre 0.1% in 2024, from 0.4% this year.
Next year it will be 0.3%, 0.2% in 2022 and 2023, FocusEconomics said.
According to FocusEconomics, after a likely sharp decline in the second quarter (Q2) due to Covid-19 containment measures, low energy prices and plummeting visitor arrivals, the local economy appears to have recovered somewhat in the third quarter.
The government progressively lifted lockdown restrictions in four stages from mid-June, and entered phase four in September.
As a result, economic activity has largely resumed, although capacity restrictions remain in place in stores and workplaces.
The easing of restrictions was reflected by a surge in the non-energy private sector PMI in July and August relative to Q2. Moreover, industrial output was up markedly in July on stronger energy production.
However, the hospitality sector “likely remained under pressure” due to weak visitor arrivals.
The economy is “set to shrink” this year on the domestic lockdown, lower tourism and depressed energy prices. However, output should “rebound” next year as the impact of the pandemic eases, FocusEconomics said.
FocusEconomics panellists see a 3.2% contraction in GDP in 2020, before a growth of 3% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast.
Consumer prices fell 4.1% in annual terms in August, down from July's 3.4% drop, on lower prices for recreation and culture, transport and housing.
Prices are seen declining over 2020 as a whole before rising next year as activity recovers.
FocusEconomics panellists see consumer prices falling 1.8% in 2020. In 2021, its panel sees inflation averaging 1.2%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month's forecast.