Qatar is expected to contribute more than 12% to the Gulf gross domestic product (GDP) by 2024, said a research article by Kamco.
Doha's share in Gulf GDP is expected to be 11.8% this year and in 2020, after which it is slated to increase marginally to 11.9% in 2021 and 2022 and then increase further to 12% by 2023.
The country, which has already announced slew of measures including enhancing liquefied natural gas output, is slated to see 2.8% real growth (adjusted for inflation) by 2024 against 2% this year, although growth is expected to peak to 3% by 2021, it said.
The nominal GDP is expected to reach QR844.9bn by 2024 compared to QR698.3bn this year; while GDP per capita is slated to be $83,263 by 2024 against $69,688 this year.
Qatar’s real GDP in the second quarter of this year receded by 1.4% year-on-year and reached QR200.2bn, according to Planning and Statistics Authority. The non-oil sector, which accounts for 52.4% of the real economy, declined 1.1% year-on-year. The mining and quarrying sector GDP declined 1.1% year-on-year to reach QR95.3bn.
The country's current account surplus, which is expected to be QR41.94bn or 6% of GDP, is forecasted to reach QR27.57bn or 3.3% of GDP by 2024.
Qatar’s current account surplus dropped in GDP terms from 4.2% of GDP in the first quarter of this year to 3.8% of GDP in the subsequent quarter of 2019.
The country's average inflation (based on consumer price index) is expected to be 2% by 2024, Kamco said, adding inflation trends at the end of October 2019 was "slightly weaker" compared to the second quarter of 2019, as the general CPI index declined 0.8% over the period.
Money supply (M2) at the end of October 2019 remained broadly stable from the second quarter of 2019 and decreased by 3.7% from the first quarter of the same year. Time and savings deposits, however, improved by 3.6% in October 2019 from the second quarter of this year, while M1 receded by 4% over the same period.
Qatar reported a fiscal surplus of QR6.82bn in the second quarter of this year after posting fiscal surplus of QR2bn in the previous quarter. The surplus in the second quarter of 2019 came from a 3.9% quarter-on-quarter increase in revenues, and was aided by lower expenditure, as expenses went down 5% quarter-on-quarter over the same period. The Q2 2019 fiscal surplus came in at 4.2% of GDP.