Qatar’s fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP is set to rise to 4.6% in 2023 from an estimated 1.3% this year, FocusEconomics said.
The current account balance (as a percentage of the country’s GDP) will be 6.6% in 2023 compared with 6.7% in 2019.
Qatar’s merchandise trade balance, FocusEconomics said in its latest economic update, will be $55.1bn in 2023. This year, it will account for $46.7bn.
Qatar’s gross domestic product is expected to reach $239bn by 2023, it said. By the year-end, Qatar’s GDP may total $196bn.
Qatar’s economic growth in terms of nominal GDP will reach 5.2% in 2023 from 2.3% by the year-end.
The researcher said Qatar’s public debt will fall gradually until 2023, and is estimated to be 51.7% this year, 48.4% (in 2020), 45.3% (in 2021), 42.7% (in 2022) and 40% (in 2023).
International reserves may exceed $43bn in 2023, from the current $37.7bn; FocusEconomics estimated and noted it will cover 12.1 months of country’s imports.
The country’s inflation, the report noted, will be 2.1% in 2023 and 0.1% this year.
Qatar’s unemployment rate (as a percentage of active population) will remain a meagre 0.2% in 2023, unchanged from this year.
According to FocusEconomics, the economy posted a “modest acceleration” to 0.9% year-on-year growth in the first quarter (Q1) after a “weak” 0.5% out-turn in Q4 last year.
Q1’s expansion was driven by the mining and quarrying sector’s return to growth for the first time since Q4, 2017.
Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector also posted a “solid” turnaround.
“The economy should gather momentum this year, driven mainly by a recovery in the energy sector and stronger government consumption growth.
"Consumer prices fell 0.4% in annual terms in June (May -0.7% year-on-year). Going forward, inflation should return later this year on stronger economic activity and a supportive base effect, but remain anaemic nonetheless."
FocusEconomics panellists expect inflation to average 0.1% in 2019, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2020.