Qatar’s international reserves will touch nearly $35bn in 2023 compared with $30bn this year, a new report has shown.
The international reserves will cover eight months of imports in 2023 as against 10.3 months this year, FocusEconomics said in its latest country report.
Qatar’s gross domestic product is expected to reach $219bn by 2023, it said. By the year-end, Qatar’s GDP will total $180bn.
The country’s GDP per capita in dollar terms will account for $77,112 in 2023 compared with $64,168 by end-2019, it said.
Qatar’s economic growth in terms of nominal GDP will reach 5% in 2023 from 5.1% by the year-end.
Qatar’s fiscal balance (as a percentage of the country’s GDP) will be 4.6% in 2023 compared to 1.1% this year.
The country’s public debt (as a percentage of GDP) is expected to fall to 42.4% in 2023 in place of 52.1% in end-2018.
Qatar’s public debt will fall gradually until 2023, the report said. Next year, it will be 50.5% (as a percentage of the country’s GDP), 48.8% (2021) and 45.6% (2022).
The current account balance (as a percentage of the country’s GDP) will be 8% in 2023 compared with 8.8% in 2019.
Qatar’s merchandise trade balance, FocusEconomics said, will be $55.8bn in 2023. This year, it will account for $51.4bn.
The country’s inflation, the report noted, will fall to 2% in 2023 from 2% this year.
Qatar’s unemployment rate (as a percentage of active population) will remain a meagre 0.2%, unchanged from this year.
The economy accelerated in the third quarter, with strong growth in the construction as well as accommodation and food services sub-sectors, FocusEconomics said.
In contrast, the mining and quarrying sub-sector contracted slightly.
“Looking to the fourth quarter, trade data for October and November paints a positive picture, with exports and the trade surplus rising by double digits in annual terms. Moreover, foreign reserves continued to rise in November.
The approval of the 2019 budget forecasts the first fiscal surplus since 2014,” FocusEconomics noted.
“Looking ahead, growth should be supported by higher hydrocarbon production and infrastructure projects. However, the blockade on Qatar by a quartet of Arab countries and exposure to volatile commodity prices are downside risks,” the report noted.
FocusEconomics panellists forecast 2.9% growth in 2019, which remains unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.7% in 2020.
Prices fell 0.2% year-on-year in November, slightly less than the 0.3% decrease in October. FocusEconomics panellists expect inflation to return and average 2.2% in 2019 and 2020.
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