*GDP per capita in dollar terms will be $62,493 this year and $75,032 in 2022
Qatar’s gross domestic product (GDP) may exceed QR773bn ($212bn) by 2022, a new report has shown.
In its country report released on Tuesday, FocusEconomics said Qatar’s GDP this year would be QR632bn ($173bn) and QR666bn ($183bn) in 2019.
GDP per capita in dollar terms will be $62,493 this year and $75,032 in 2022.
The country’s international reserves will scale up to $28.7bn (QR104.5bn) in 2022, FocusEconomics said and noted that higher oil prices and infrastructure push related to FIFA 2022 should drive the country’s growth this year.
FocusEconomics sees Qatar’s international reserves totalling $22.2bn this year.
Qatar’s merchandise trade balance would amount to $47.3bn (QR172.1bn) by the year-end. Next year, it would be nearly $47.1bn (QR171.4bn).
Qatar’s current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) will be 7.6% this year, according to an estimate by FocusEconomics analysts. Next year, it will be 6.8% of the country’s GDP.
Fiscal balance (as a percentage of GDP) will be 3.3% in 2022 from -1.7% this year.
The country’s public debt (as a percentage of GDP) is expected to drop to 51% in 2022 from 55.6% this year and 55% in 2019.
Qatar’s inflation based on consumer price index, FocusEconomics said will be 1.3% this year, but will rise to 2.6% in 2019, eventually falling to 2.1% in 2022.
In its country outlook FocusEconomics said after a weak start in the first quarter, the economy appears to have accelerated somewhat in the second quarter.
“Construction activity remained buoyant due to ongoing preparations for the 2022 World Cup, while mining and quarrying output recovered from its fall in the first quarter (Q1), largely thanks to strong oil production in May.
“Despite the trade blockade imposed by its GCC neighbours, Qatar’s export growth remained strong in the second quarter (Q2) and early Q3 - highlighting the external sector’s resilience - with the trade balance increasing more than 40% year-on-year in July,” FocusEconomics said.
Regarding the non-oil economy, PMI data showed a modest pace of growth in Q2 but some positive signs for Q3, namely higher new order and job growth coupled with stronger business confidence.
Higher oil prices and the infrastructure push related to the 2022 World Cup should drive growth this year, it said.
FocusEconomics panelists forecast growth of 2.7% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 2.8% in 2019.
Inflation accelerated to 0.2% in July from 0.1% in June on higher prices for transport, health and clothing.
FocusEconomics panellists see Qatar’s inflation averaging 1.3% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019.