Qatar’s nominal GDP has been forecast to reach nearly QR699bn next year; accounting for 12% of GCC’s gross domestic product in 2019, a new study has shown.
The country’s nominal GDP is expected to total nearly QR659bn this year, with a 11.8% share of the GCC GDP in 2018, points out Kamco Research.
Qatar’s GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP) has been forecast at $68,255 in 2019, compared with the projected $65,159 this year.
Kamco Research has forecast the country’s real GDP growth at 3.1% this year and 2.7% in 2019.
In its latest quarterly report, Kamco Research said Qatar’s Q3, 2017 GDP improved by 3.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) as oil and gas related sectors went up by 8.1% over the same period. The non-oil sector grew by 1.9% q-o-q, as the private sector grew by 2.5% on a q-o-q basis.
Non-oil government sector GDP declined marginally (-0.4%) q-o-q in Q3, 2017, Kamco Research said.
As per Qatar National Strategy for 2018-22, the government expects to run the small fiscal surpluses during the period and forecasts a GDP growth of between 2.1% and 3%, reportedly with investment into the private sector to be higher to compensate the slower growth in the oil and gas economy. Total credit facilities continued the uptrend and stood at a record high level at the end of Q4, 2017, with an increase of 1.8% q-o-q to reach QR911bn as of December, 2017.
The growth was ascribed to both the public sector and the private sector, which grew q-o-q in Q4, 2017, as the public sector grew by 3.9%, while the private sector credit went up by 1.6% as against the previous quarter.
Within the private sector, large sectors utilising credit — real estate and consumption, recorded mixed trends in lending. Real estate credit increased by 4.5% q-o-q in Q4, 2017, and grew by 13.2% y-o-y, while consumption credit declined by 0.1% on a quarterly basis, but went up by 2.9% y-o -y as compared to Q3, 2017.
Qatar’s broad measure of money supply (M2) went up on a q-o-q basis, to gain around QR38.5bn or 6.8% in Q4, 2017 and stand at around QR603bn as of December 2017.
The jump in M2, Kamco Research said, was mainly attributed to the “increase in deposits in foreign currencies”, which went up by QR33.6bn, growing by 18% on a quarterly basis in Q4, 2017. Quarterly inflation inched up marginally during Q4, 2017 q-o-q by 0.5%, ascribed to a 2.6% increase in transport costs as compared to Q3, 2017.
Housing and related utilities prices declined by 0.8%, while food and beverage prices went down 0.5% q-o-q. Most other components improved marginally on a q-o-q basis, Kamco Research said.