Qatar's mobile subscriber base may end 2016 with 4.86mn mobile subscribers, and rise to 5.42mn by 2020, BMI Research has said in its latest report.

The Fitch Group company maintains its prediction that broadband subscriber numbers will grow steadily from an estimated 527,000 at the end of 2015 to more than 803,000 by end-2020. This will be equivalent to a penetration rate of 32.7%, up from 23.6% in 2015.
BMI has left its 3G and 4G subscriber forecasts unchanged this quarter (Q3, 2016). Growth has historically been strong and BMI predicts that 3G/4G penetration will reach 60.8% in 2016; jumping to over 3.98mn 3G and 4G enabled phones by 2020, with a market penetration of 73.5%.
“There are many upsides to our 3G forecast as heavy infrastructure developments by Ooredoo in the 3G, 4G and 5G sector, such as Ooredoo Qatar and Nokia Networks launching an LTE-advanced (LTE-A) network in Qatar in December,” BMI said.
The Fitch Group company maintains a “positive outlook” for Qatar's telecommunications sector. A booming construction sector fuelled by infrastructure investments linked to the 2022 FIFA world cup buoyed the telecoms sector growth in 2014 and 2015. Migrant workers and their families have buoyed the adoption of mobile and wireline broadband subscriptions over the past two years. This trend is expected to continue throughout BMI’s 2015-2020 forecast period.
BMI expects the increase in competition in Qatar's 4G market to stimulate aggressive network expansion and service pricing strategies by the country's service providers.
This development, along with the proliferation of affordable smartphones, will drive mobile data subscriptions in the country. By 2020, there will be 3.98mn 3G/4G subscriptions, or 73.5% of the overall mobile market.
BMI has based its forecast on a number of industry-specific and macroeconomic factors, notably price competition, aggressive network expansion, declining average selling price (ASP) of smartphones, and Qatar's strong private consumption growth outlook over its forecast period.
“We believe that lower tariffs and cheaper smartphones will drive uptake among migrant workers, arguably the fastest growing consumer segment owing to the influx of construction workers and other expatriates involved in the country's preparation to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup,” BMI said.
BMI believes the rising take-up of mobile data services will also help sustain Qatar's ARPU levels during its forecast period. Although competition has forced Ooredoo's ARPU down nearly to the same level as Vodafone's over the last year, BMI expects neither operator will be interested in pushing these down much further than the present level.
“The duopoly in the market will therefore act as another important buffer against faster ARPU depreciation in Qatar throughout our forecast period. We do highlight the risk that devices such as tablets, with a lower ARPU, might dilute the overall figure should uptake continue to increase. Vodafone could also use price competition to attract users onto its network,” BMI said.