The Fitch Group company forecasts Qatar's hydrocarbon production growth to “remain flat” over the coming years.
As a result, headline growth will not benefit from a similar boost the hydrocarbon sector provided between 2003 and 2012 (when total hydrocarbon production real growth averaged 13%).
“Indeed, with oil and gas prices set to remain relatively low over the next decade,” BMI expects to see “less investment” in the hydrocarbon industry than in the previous years.
In BMI's view, Qatar, like other GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) states, has entered a “protracted period” of slower economic growth, as low hydrocarbon prices impact business confidence, domestic liquidity, and government spending. Nevertheless, BMI said “Qatar will withstand the ongoing slump in the oil market better than its neighbours,” on the back of ongoing “massive investments” in infrastructure projects for the FIFA 2022 World Cup.
This, along with a temporary blip in real hydrocarbon growth – as phases one and two of the Barzan gas project are finalised – will ensure that Qatar's economic growth trajectory remains “well above” that of other GCC states.
BMI expects 2016 to mark the bottom for Qatar's real economic growth slowdown, and see moderate acceleration in economic expansion from 2017, as global hydrocarbon prices edge up.
“We forecast Brent to average $46.5/b in 2016, $57/b in 2017 and $68/b in 2018, compared to $55.17/b in 2015. The country's growth trajectory will follow a similar pattern, and we forecast real GDP growth of 4.4% in 2016 and 4.8% in 2017, compared to an estimated 5.5% in 2015,” BMI said.
It believes that Qatar's massive infrastructure projects in preparation for the FIFA 2022 World Cup will remain over the coming years. As a result, “growth fixed capital formation” will remain the main driver of the country's headline growth, even as cuts are made in non-FIFA related projects.
Qatar's Public Works Authority's (Ashghal) total 2016 budget is estimated to amount to between QR15bn and QR17bn, which BMI says is lower than the previous estimates.
In May, Ashghal announced that it would award contracts for the construction of only three healthcare centres, compared to the seven that had previously been planned, BMI said.
Business / Eco./Bus. News
Qatar hydrocarbon growth to be 'relatively elevated' this year: BMI
BMI points out that u201cunlike its neighbours,, Qatar will continue to benefit from large investments in infrastructure projects for the FIFA 2022 World Cup.
Qatar’s hydrocarbon growth will be “relatively elevated” in 2016 compared to the next five years, as phases one and two of the $10.3bn Barzan gas projects are being finalised, BMI Research has said in a new report.
