Opinion

Efforts by US antitrust regulators to break up Alphabet by forcing a sale of its Google Chrome browser and other proposals to limit its search dominance are likely to run into legal challenges on grounds the remedies are extreme. After a ruling in August that Google illegally monopolised the search market, US Department of Justice (DoJ) prosecutors argued to a judge last Wednesday that the company must sell Chrome, share data and search results with rivals and possibly sell its Android smartphone software.Alphabet shares closed nearly 5% lower on Thursday. The proposals are part of a landmark case aimed at reshaping how users find information. But a new pro-business administration of President-elect Donald Trump next year could change that effort and legal proceedings could last years, experts said.“It would strike me as an over-ask,” said Kevin Walkush at Jensen Investment Management, which holds Google stock and is sceptical a Chrome divestiture will happen. “You ask for everything possible, not necessarily with an eye towards what would be probable and proportional, and then see what sticks.”The DoJ sought and won a breakup of Microsoft in the early 2000s after alleging it illegally monopolised the web browser market. That ruling was overturned by an appeals court, and Microsoft and the DoJ eventually settled.Walkush expects the Google case to take years to play out as the company appeals. “The wheels of justice do not turn quickly,” he said.Google called the DoJ’s approach “unprecedented government overreach that would harm American consumers, developers, and small businesses,” giving as examples diminished user privacy and less funding for companies such as browser maker Mozilla when they feature Google search.The case could also face challenges from Trump.While Trump’s administration originally filed the search case against Google during his first term, he indicated in October he might not break up the company because it could hurt the American tech industry at a time competition is heating up with China in areas including AI.Representatives for Trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Chrome, the most widely used web browser, is a pillar of Google’s business, providing the company with valuable user data that helps it target ads. The search ads business brought in more than half of Alphabet’s total revenue of $88.3bn in the latest quarter.The value of Chrome, estimated to hold about two-thirds of the global browser market, diminishes sharply as a standalone browser.“The reason why it’s valuable to Google is because Google uses it to enhance its ad business and its search business,” said Megan Gray, former general counsel at search rival DuckDuckGO who has also worked as an attorney at the Federal Trade Commission. “If you don’t have those, then Chrome would just be a data broker.” A forced sale would not address several key issues raised in the DoJ lawsuit, including a search monopoly, critics say. US antitrust enforcers, who are also pursuing Apple and Amazon in other monopoly cases, would have to approve any potential Chrome buyer.“DoJ will face substantial headwinds with this remedy,” because Chrome can run search engines other than Google, said Gus Hurwitz, senior fellow and academic director at University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School. “Courts expect any remedy to have a causal connection to the underlying antitrust concern. Divesting Chrome does absolutely nothing to address this concern.”The DoJ proposed a blanket ban on Google offering incentives to give its search engine preferential treatment. That would include Google’s lucrative partnership with Apple, where it pays the smartphone maker billions of dollars annually to make Google Search the default on Apple smartphones.Evercore analysts called the proposed curbs “draconian.”Given Google Search’s popularity, Apple is likely to continue with Google as the default search engine even without any agreement or payments, Hurwitz said.DoJ’s proposals also include demands for Google to license search results at a nominal cost and share the user data it gathers with competitors for free.DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria said it was harder to ascertain the impact of Google having to open up its search data until the terms are clearer. The Center for Journalism & Liberty said Google licensing its search data would be “transformative” for news publishers because it would help them better understand their audiences. – Reuters

US President-elect Donald Trump has pledged a 60% tariff on imports from China, and to crack down on Chinese components sneaking into the United States through Mexico.But if Trump does want to help US consumers and businesses, there is a better way. Rather than imposing towering tariffs, he should tell China to rip up its massive holdings of US debt. The People’s Bank of China (together with Hong Kong) holds more than $1tn in US Treasuries, and cancelling this debt would partly offset China’s currency manipulation and trade infractions.How did a poor country amass more US debt than the United Kingdom, which has been snapping up US bonds ever since Alexander Hamilton was Treasury Secretary? It did so by generating mountainous trade surpluses.Over the past ten years, the annual US merchandise trade deficit with China has averaged $524bn, while the dollar value of the renminbi has dipped 16%. To prevent its currency from appreciating, China buys US bonds. But remember: a portion of those dollars flowed to China precisely because the Chinese authorities held down the value of the renminbi and made it difficult for US firms to operate in China without having their intellectual property plundered.Although it would be difficult to get economists to agree on the exact statistical relationship between the exchange rate and exports, Trump would not be out of step with mainstream research if he asserted that the renminbi is undervalued by a modest 15%. (The Economist’s “Big Mac” index suggests 37%, which is somewhat higher than estimates from the Coalition for a Prosperous America, a group of US-based businesses).A 15% revaluation could erase perhaps $90bn from the annual $524bn merchandise trade deficit. Trump, his US trade adviser, and his Treasury secretary could request that the Chinese account for their gains by writing off $90bn of their US Treasury holdings. Or, if the new administration prefers a less gentle approach, it could pound the table even harder and claim that the Chinese owe at least six years “back pay,” which would mean tearing up half the bonds.Since Article 4 of the US Constitution’s 14th Amendment insists that the validity of US public debt “shall not be questioned” (though Congress’s establishment of a “debt ceiling” might do that anyway), Trump and his advisers would make clear to China and to global investors that the US is not reneging on its debt. The bonds would remain 100% valid, tradable, and backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. The US would offer China open access to its markets in exchange for certain pledges, namely that China open its own markets, refrain from intellectual piracy, and surrender a small portion of the gains it earned (held in the form of US bonds) through currency manipulation.Were Trump to do this, he could claim that he alone among US presidents is securing reparations for China’s economic tactical strikes on US manufacturing. Second, total US debt is spiralling upward toward 120% of GDP, and interest on the debt now surpasses defence spending. Worse, America is hitting these treacherous levels at a time of relative peace and prosperity, compared to the rest of the world. What happens when times change? Third, a slight decline in the supply of US debt would marginally hold down interest rates, further supporting economic growth. Of course, this proposal would reinforce the Chinese view of Americans as the villains of the piece. But there is little doubt that Xi’s trade advisers are already drawing up offerings – such as to buy US semiconductors, Boeing jets, or every soybean sprout in North Dakota.Moreover, if the Chinese scoff at this proposal, Trump can offer a compelling fallback option. He could tell Xi that instead of totally erasing $90bn of bonds, the bonds could be surrendered to the US Treasury, which would then mail Beijing a $45bn zero-coupon infrastructure bond. This would kick off Trump’s long-awaited drive to rebuild America’s roads, bridges, and airports.If Trump wants to be particularly crafty, he could funnel away $15bn to build his wall on the US southern border. China will cry foul, but who would listen? The American people will have spoken. — Project Syndicate

The greenback has an overarching sway over the financial world with the central role US banks and the currency play in the global economy.The dollar last week posted its longest weekly advance in over a year as Donald Trump’s presidential victory and persistent economic growth pushed traders to boost their bets on further gains.The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed as much as 0.7% last Friday, capping an eight-week rally, the longest since September 2023.The euro fell to a two-year low and the Swiss franc slid to the weakest against the greenback since July.“I would not step in front of this speeding train as long as the US growth exceptionalism story continues,” said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi US Inc.The dollar’s rally has been fuelled by speculation that Trump’s tariffs and tax cuts will fan inflation and add fuel to an economy the Federal Reserve has already been trying to restrain.That has caused traders to dial back expectations for how much the Fed will cut interest rates in the months ahead, driving up bond yields and giving overseas investors an incentive to shift money to the US.“From max bullish on the dollar, we have transitioned to a moderate bullishness on the dollar,” said Alessio de Longis, a senior portfolio manager at Invesco. “We are slowly but steadily taking profits on our dollar overweights and going to a more neutral stance.”Deutsche Bank said that not all of Trump’s policies have been priced in and the dollar has more room to go up.A “maximalist” scenario where Trump enacts his most extreme policies is only 30% priced into financial markets, according to George Saravelos, global head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank.It’s no secret that Trump likes the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve asset, and the accompanying economic and geopolitical power. But he also wants a weak enough foreign-exchange rate to buoy the US manufacturing sector.The duelling forces may become a pillar of his administration’s economic agenda, and as Treasury chief, Scott Bessent would oversee US currency policy.“The reserve currency can go up and down based on the market. I believe that if you have good economic policies, you’re naturally going to have a strong dollar,” Bessent said in interview published in Financial Times in October.At the same time, currency traders are betting that Trump’s policy agenda is about to jumpstart volatility in the $7.5tn-a-day foreign exchange market.After years of benign moves, a gauge of one-year volatility on the euro-dollar exchange rate surged after the election. Hedge funds are scooping up options contracts that pay out if currency swings increase and strategists have dramatically revised their currency forecasts.While it’s not yet clear how quickly Trump will implement policies such as trade tariffs that could cause significant pain to currencies like the euro, investors are pretty certain that unpredictability will be a major feature of his term in office.Investors are underestimating trade war risks under a Trump presidency, according to strategists at Bank of America who predict a 5% slide in emerging-market currencies over the first half of 2025, and a selloff in sovereign debt.Exchange rates do matter because depreciating currencies increase the cost of imported goods, stoking inflation as those expenses feed through to prices in grocery stores and factories.Meanwhile, there’s a higher likelihood that money will pour out of a nation with a weak currency in search of higher yields elsewhere — so-called capital flight — harming domestic investment and growth.

In 2024, Russia shifted its backing from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), signalling a major change in its involvement in Sudan’s ongoing conflict. This shift can be traced to the 2019 coup, which ousted President Omar al-Bashir. The coup had support from Russian officials, including Yevgeny Prigozhin. In the aftermath, Russia provided crucial backing to the RSF, including military assistance and strategic advice, to help stabilise the new regime. Russia and China blocked a UN Security Council resolution condemning the RSF’s deadly crackdown on protesters in June 2019, justifying the violence as necessary for maintaining stability. The connection between Russia and Sudan deepened when Wagner Group mercenaries began aiding the Sudanese government in suppressing large protests in 2018. Wagner operatives trained Sudanese security forces and advised on tactics to undermine opposition, including using disinformation to smear protesters and manipulate media narratives. As protests escalated due to severe economic difficulties and human rights abuses, the government responded with violent repression, with evidence later linking Russian mercenaries and military equipment to the crackdown. In 2023, Sudan descended into a full-scale conflict between the SAF and RSF. Russia’s role as a supposed peace mediator became increasingly problematic as Wagner mercenaries were shown to be directly involved with the RSF. While Russian officials expressed concern over the violence, their continued support for the RSF undermined their credibility as neutral brokers. Russia’s broader influence in Africa, especially in countries like Sudan, Mali, and the Central African Republic, has capitalised on weaknesses in Western policies and sanctions. Moscow has leveraged these opportunities to gain political, diplomatic, and economic leverage from authoritarian regimes, but this often comes at a high human cost. A central element in Russia’s growing influence in Sudan has been the country’s vast gold resources. M-Invest, a company connected to the Wagner Group, secured mining rights in Sudan, allowing Russia to extract valuable gold. Russian mercenaries soon arrived to assist Sudanese forces, and Sudan’s involvement in peace talks for the Central African Republic made it a critical part of Russia’s strategy in the region. The ties between Russia and Sudan deepened in 2017 after the US lifted sanctions on Sudan. Omar al-Bashir travelled to Sochi to meet with President Vladimir Putin, seeking protection from US hostility. In return, Sudan offered Russia military support and access to critical resources, including gold, and allowed the establishment of a Russian naval base in Port Sudan. As Sudan’s political crisis unfolded, Russia’s support for Bashir and his successors contributed to the country’s instability. Following the 2019 coup, Russian mercenaries, linked to Wagner and its affiliate Meroe Gold, became involved in the illicit gold trade. When the US imposed sanctions on Meroe Gold, Sudanese officials created a new front company, Al-Solag, to continue these operations covertly. Despite efforts to curb this trade, Sudan’s military government, after staging a coup in 2021, disbanded the anti-corruption committee that had uncovered these illicit activities, silencing opposition to the gold smuggling operations. With the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Sudan’s gold became crucial for Russia as a means to bypass international sanctions and fund its war effort. Sudan further aligned with Russia, abstaining from UN votes condemning Moscow’s actions in Ukraine and even granting approval for a Russian naval base on its shores. Despite public concerns about the violence in Sudan, Russia’s continued support for the military regime and its backing of the RSF exacerbated the crisis, leading to even greater suffering for the Sudanese people. Russia’s growing influence in Africa is part of a broader strategy that exploits the weaknesses of Western interventions and sanctions. Countries like Sudan, Mali, and the Central African Republic, where Russia has offered political and military support to authoritarian governments, have become crucial partners for Moscow. However, this relationship comes at a heavy humanitarian cost. Russia’s support for oppressive regimes only deepens the violence, corruption, and human rights abuses in these countries. While Moscow positions itself as a counterbalance to Western influence, its actions reveal a stark contradiction — fostering authoritarian rule while criticising foreign interference. The citizens of these countries bear the greatest burden, enduring the consequences of Russia’s exploitative policies. [email protected]

The arts represent an immense world where culture, heritage, and identity flourish. They allow us to preserve the stories, traditions, and values that define our cultures, generations, and civilisations. Our Arab and Islamic heritage is rich in the arts, and cultural narratives have been passed down through generations, fostering creative expression within our youth. And in education, nurturing this creativity is our collective responsibility.Within Qatar Foundation (QF)’s Pre-University Education (PUE), this responsibility takes centre stage as we provide our students with platforms to explore, express, and celebrate their creativity, all while grounding them in Arab culture and heritage. We’ve seen our students on stage at the PUE Theater, showcase their work in the Multaqa (Education City Student Center) exhibition halls, and engage in artistic pursuits at QF’s Recreation Center. The biggest platform yet, Al Ghorrah for Literature and Arts, is the ideal space to showcase our students’ talent to the wider community.Al Ghorrah is dedicated to exploring the depth, beauty, and impact of Arab-Islamic cultural heritage. It is not just a platform for showcasing arts; it has become a regional centre for cultural exchange, offering students and artists alike the opportunity to connect with their roots. The importance of participating in events like Al Ghorrah is invaluable – it allows our students to preserve and present the diverse narratives of the Arab world, while also building bridges between cultures.Al Ghorrah serves as a vibrant cultural stage where both grassroots artists and young performers can showcase their talent, expand their audience, and grow in an environment that fosters a deep appreciation for the arts. For students in QF schools, participating in such events nurtures a greater appreciation for the heritage that unites us, while opening new avenues for creative growth. Al Ghorrah is the ideal space for our students to explore their Arab and Islamic identity, all while remaining globally minded and embracing the interconnected world around them.Beyond cultural preservation, engaging in the arts and literature plays a crucial role in the holistic development of young people. In a world that increasingly values soft skills, enrichment programmes offer an unparalleled opportunity to enhance creativity, communication, collaboration, and teamwork. Whether through theatre performances, literary workshops, or art exhibitions, these experiences enhance students’ critical thinking and innovation capacities, preparing them to navigate a world where such skills are increasingly valued.At QF, we recognise that the arts play a key role in fostering a sense of belonging and connection. As students engage in artistic endeavours, they deepen their understanding of their cultural identity while learning to appreciate diverse perspectives. Events such as our Celebration of Learning, where students present their artistic and literary talents, emphasise the importance of building cultural bridges—both within the region and globally.As QF continues to support young people in their creative journeys, we reaffirm our commitment to preserving our cultural legacy while equipping our students with the tools to be future innovators, storytellers, and leaders.QF’s Al Ghorrah for Literature and Arts will take place from 28 November to 2 December in Education City. Tickets are available now at educationcity.qa/al-ghorrah where you can also find more information about Al Ghorrah.Qatar Foundation – Unlocking Human PotentialQatar Foundation for Education, Science and Community Development (QF) is a non-profit organisation that supports Qatar on its journey to becoming a diversified and sustainable economy. QF strives to serve the people of Qatar and beyond by providing specialised programmes across its innovation-focused ecosystem of education, research and development, and community development.QF was founded in 1995 by His Highness Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, the Father Amir, and Her Highness Sheikha Moza bint Nasser, who shared the vision to provide Qatar with quality education. Today, QF’s world-class education system offers lifelong learning opportunities to community members as young as six months through to doctoral level, enabling graduates to thrive in a global environment and contribute to the nation’s development.QF is also creating a multidisciplinary innovation hub in Qatar, where homegrown researchers are working to address local and global challenges. By promoting a culture of lifelong learning and fostering social engagement through programs that embody Qatari culture, QF is committed to empowering the local community and contributing to a better world for all.

The United States has layers of sensors that can spot, track and identify ballistic missile launches such as the Russian IRBM fired at Ukraine last Thursday — a Cold War system that has been refined over decades into an unblinking global network.Six Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman satellites, known as SBIRS, for space-based infrared system, sit in geostationary orbit around earth hunting for launch signatures, according to the US Space Force, which operates them.They — and a network of smaller satellites in lower orbits — use a variety of sensors to detect the firing of a ballistic missile anywhere on the planet within seconds, from small, unsophisticated weapons such as Scuds all the way up to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), said William Alberque, a visiting fellow at the Henry L Stimson Center.“The things that you can do with video, plus IR, plus synthetic aperture radars, plus ground-based radars...all of these things knit together,” Alberque said. “Processing all this data at very high speed means we have the ability to know more about what is launched than ever before.”Rocket motors, for instance, produce different exhaust gases of varying temperatures based on their fuel and other design factors. These “signatures” can quickly identify a missile.Ground-based sensors include massive solid-state early warning radars in the United States, Canada and Britain. Together with satellites, the system can determine missile type, launch angle, azimuth, apogee, velocity, size and landing point, among other things.Besides Space Force, many other US government organisations are involved, including the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, US Strategic Command and the Missile Defense Agency. Regional military commands may be involved as well.Some launch notifications can be automated, such as smaller, short-range weapons that don’t pose any threat to the US or its allies. More serious alerts for longer-range weapons or a direct threat require human analysis and decision-making.In the case of Russia’s strike on Ukraine near the city of Dnipro, there was no concern about a nuclear attack because there were no signs of warheads being moved, other forces being prepared, or the involvement of Russia’s 12th Chief Directorate of the Ministry of Defence, which controls its nuclear weapons, Alberque said.“There would be a huge signature for potential use,” he said, referring to nuclear weapons.Early warning systems as a concept originated during the 1950s, at first to spot bomber formations and later expanded to detect missiles. The first systems used enormous ground-based radars to scan for missiles rising over the horizon, and were linked to defensive systems that often included nuclear-tipped interceptors.Space Force is in the midst of a nearly $15bn program for more advanced early warning satellites, dubbed Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared. The system will include geostationary satellites, the first of which is set for delivery in 2025, and polar-orbiting satellites scheduled for launch in 2028. — Reuters

Permission from Washington for Ukraine to strike Russian territory with American-supplied long-range missiles may have come too late and hedged with too many restrictions to slow Moscow’s advance, experts warn.US President Joe Biden did not grant Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for deep strike capability until two months before he hands the keys to the White House to Ukraine aid sceptic Donald Trump. The shift comes as Russian forces press their advance through eastern Ukraine, claiming on Monday they had captured a new village south of Pokrovsk — a crucial logistics hub for the defenders.Moscow’s troops took a further 60 square kilometres (23 square miles) over the weekend, according to an AFP analysis based on data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).That brought the figure for November so far to 458 square kilometres — on track to beat October’s total of 610, a record since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.“Putin hasn’t reached the borders of the Donbas. So long as he isn’t there yet, he’ll keep pushing,” a senior French military source told AFP.“If you take a cool-headed look at the balance of forces, the advantage is with the Russian side,” the source added.“News from eastern Ukraine continues to be grim,” agreed Mick Ryan, a former Australian army general.“While no major Russian operational breakthrough is expected, the Russians have been able to sustain their pressure on the Ukrainians for about a year now and it is telling”.Deep strikes into Russian territory with US-supplied ATACMS missiles could in theory disrupt or even push back Moscow’s advance.But “these missiles have already been in use for at least a year and a half” in Crimea and the Donbas, Moscow-based military analyst Alexander Khramchikhin pointed out.“You can’t launch missiles directly from the front line, because then the launchers won’t last long,” he added.He suggested the US had delivered a “very limited” number of missiles and launchers to Kyiv, although no reliable estimates are available of the true figures.In any case, the Russians “long ago moved their most critical resources out of ATACAMS’ range”, said Stephen Biddle, an international relations professor at New York’s Columbia University.“I don’t think it’s going to be decisive for the direction of the war” that Ukraine now has permission to hit Russian territory with them, he added. ATACMS missiles can carry a payload of a single charge or cluster munitions that spread multiple small explosives over a large area, analysts at British private intelligence firm Janes told AFP. Ukraine could use them against “deep targets such as logistics hubs that would slow resupply, or command and control nodes,” they added — although given the time Russia has had to prepare, “this might not be as great an influence as initially expected” on the front line. Just like Western deliveries of major equipment such as heavy tanks or fighter aircraft, Kyiv has had to push relentlessly for many months to secure Washington’s green light.No individual weapons system alone will be enough to turn the conflict in one side’s favour. Fast-moving, highly manoeuvrable ATACMS missiles are “difficult targets to intercept” but “the Russian S-400 air defence system offers an ability to counter tactical ballistic missiles,” the Janes’ analysts noted. Several experts suggested that rather than handing Kyiv a decisive weapon, Biden’s decision is aimed at influencing both domestic and international policy towards Ukraine — which faces being forced into talks on unfavourable terms as support from the West flags. Within the US, Trump will take over the presidency in two months and could reverse Biden’s move.“The administration wants to push all of the aid that has currently been authorised by the Congress into Ukraine, before January 20th,” Biddle said. After then, any commitment from Biden “doesn’t constrain the Trump administration in any way”.On the global stage, the missile authorisation marks a counter-move to the deployment of North Korean reinforcements to Russia’s front line. Biden’s team “wants Putin and...the North Koreans to understand that there are costs to escalation,” Biddle said.“I worry that the administration’s emphasis on the missile issue has been too much on ‘sending a message’ to China and North Korea and not on delivering a consequential upgrade to Ukraine’s strike capability,” said Ivan Klyszcz of the Estonia-based International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS).“Will Washington allow Kyiv to aim for targets inside Russia that are not connected to north Korea?... This point remains ambiguous to me,” he added.“Some have argued that the authorisation could be a bargaining chip in negotiations” between Russia and the US, Klyszcz noted — although “Trump remains as unpredictable as usual”.

In his first global meetings since Donald Trump was re-elected to lead the US, Chinese President Xi Jinping went on a diplomatic offensive, hedging against expected new tariffs and preparing to exploit potential future rifts between Washington and its allies.At meeting after meeting, from Apec in Peru to G20 in Brazil over the last week, Xi sought to draw a contrast with Trump’s “America First” message, presenting himself as a predictable defender of the multilateral global trade order.Summit organisers, diplomats and negotiators also describe a noticeable shift from previous summits in a more constructive posture by Chinese diplomats, who were less focused on their narrow interests and more involved in building a broader consensus.The outreach is urgent for Beijing. While better prepared for another Trump White House — with many tech companies far less reliant on US imports — China is also more vulnerable after its economy was hit by a huge property crisis.Much of China’s attention has focused on the Global South, with state news agency Xinhua praising the G20 for including the African Union as one of the members. The voice of the Global South needed to be “not merely heard but also translated into tangible influence,” Xinhua said.During his G20 speech last Monday, Xi reiterated China’s position on “unilaterally opening our doors wider to the least developed countries,” touting China’s move to give all such countries “zero-tariff treatment for 100 percent tariff lines.”By making such overtures, China wants to expand its leading position in parts of the developing world where the US has long lagged due to its inability to match the billion-dollar investments that China’s state-led economy has marshalled.“To position China as a defender of globalisation and a critic of protectionism, this calculated messaging comes at a time when many countries in the Global South fear the potential return of indiscriminate trade and tariff policies from the US, particularly under Trump’s influence,” said Sunny Cheung, associate fellow for China Studies at Jamestown Foundation, a think tank based in Washington, DC.“Xi’s remarks aim to present China as a more stable and sensible and most importantly a reciprocal partner in contrast to perceived US unpredictability.”Trump has pledged to impose tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60%, and a Reuters poll of economists found they expected the US would impose tariffs of nearly 40%, potentially slicing growth in the world’s second-biggest economy by up to 1 percentage point.Former Chinese diplomats privately acknowledge that developing countries won’t make up for that loss, but Xi has been betting heavily on the expansion of Brics and mending fences with Asian neighbours, from India to Japan to Australia.European countries, also threatened by Trump with tariffs, sought to strike a conciliatory tone with Xi at the latest round of meetings.German chancellor Olaf Scholz said Berlin would work for a mediated solution to an EU-China dispute over Chinese electric vehicles as fast as possible during his meeting Xi.Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer struck an upbeat tone in the first meeting between the countries’ two leaders since 2018, saying he would like to engage with Beijing on areas such as trade, the economy and climate, and have broader engagement on science, technology, health and education.Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar, said European allies of the US would not “embrace” China if Trump’s protectionist policies were aimed at them “but there would be more co-operation”.Behind the scenes, diplomats said they also noted a change in China’s behaviour at these multinational gatherings, with Beijing officials getting involved in a wider set of issues.“China traditionally stayed much more discreet and defended only its most essential interests,” according to a Brazilian diplomat.“They seem to be realising today that more engagement is required of them. It’s not enough to build economic power, diplomacy is important for their own interests and the position they want to have in the world,” he added.To be sure, some analysts say the Chinese outreach belies tensions between Beijing and other countries that were not present when Trump first took office, making his return unlikely to bring about a total reordering of the geopolitical landscape.Western countries have long accused China of unfair trade practices, saying its state support for manufacturers, coupled with depressed domestic demand, is pushing excessive Chinese supply onto global markets.China’s outreach could also be a hard sell in its immediate neighbourhood, where its ships have repeatedly clashed with the Philippines and other neighbours over territorial claims in the South China Sea.Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing, was sceptical of the notion that Trump’s return would give China more leverage when dealing with the EU and other US allies, highlighting the proliferation of conflicts over Ukraine, Taiwan, and elsewhere.“China, of course, likes to improve relations with the EU and its major powers, but without much cost,” said Shi.That meant it would not make major concessions on trade, human rights, and territorial disputes “with or without Trump, which in turn makes major and lasting rapprochement impossible,” he added.Shi also said that China’s ability to invest and take advantage of costly Global South infrastructure projects was diminished due to its sputtering economy. And even among these like-minded countries there is underlying unease about China’s growing clout, other experts say, pointing as an example to Brazil’s move to not join Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative.“Brazil has some concerns about the relationship with China on who is the dominant partner and a desire to not be a satellite and have a more equal, balanced trade relationship with more value added on the Brazilian side,” said Robert Evan Ellis, a professor at the US Army War College. — ReutersPOINTS TO PONDER• China’s diplomatic push: Xi positions China as a stable, multilateral trade ally against Trump’s protectionist policies.• Europe’s conciliatory tone: EU leaders engage with China on trade and climate, balancing co-operation with caution.• Challenges remain: Trade disputes, territorial tensions, and economic strains limit China’s global outreach success.

An abrupt drop in global freshwater levels, as revealed recently by Nasa-German satellites is yet another cause of consternation amid aggravating environmental challenges. An international team of scientists using observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites found evidence that Earth’s total amount of freshwater dropped abruptly starting in May 2014 and has remained low ever since. Reporting in Surveys in Geophysics, the researchers suggested the shift could indicate Earth’s continents have entered a persistently drier phase.From 2015 through 2023, satellite measurements showed that the average amount of freshwater stored on land — that includes liquid surface water like lakes and rivers, plus water in aquifers underground — was 1,200 cubic km lower than the average levels from 2002 through 2014, said Matthew Rodell, one of the study authors and a hydrologist at Nasa’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.During times of drought, along with the modern expansion of irrigated agriculture, farms and cities must rely more heavily on groundwater, which can lead to a cycle of declining underground water supplies: Freshwater supplies become depleted, rain and snow fail to replenish them, and more groundwater is pumped. The reduction in available water puts a strain on farmers and communities, potentially leading to famine, conflicts, poverty, and an increased risk of disease when people turn to contaminated water sources, according to a UN report on water stress published in 2024.The GRACE satellites, operated by the German Aerospace Center, German Research Centre for Geosciences, and Nasa, measure fluctuations in Earth’s gravity on monthly scales that reveal changes in the mass of water on and under the ground. The original GRACE satellites flew from March 2002-October 2017. The successor GRACE–Follow On (GRACE–FO) satellites launched in May 2018.The decline in global freshwater reported in the study began with a massive drought in northern and central Brazil, and was followed shortly by a series of major droughts in Australasia, South America, North America, Europe, and Africa. Warmer ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific from late 2014 into 2016, culminating in one of the most significant El Niño events since 1950, led to shifts in atmospheric jet streams that altered weather and rainfall patterns around the world. However, even after El Niño subsided, global freshwater failed to rebound. In fact, Rodell and team report that 13 of the world’s 30 most intense droughts observed by GRACE occurred since January 2015. Rodell and colleagues suspect that global warming might be contributing to the enduring freshwater depletion.Global warming leads the atmosphere to hold more water vapour, which results in more extreme precipitation, said Nasa Goddard meteorologist Michael Bosilovich. While total annual rain and snowfall levels may not change dramatically, long periods between intense precipitation events allow the soil to dry and become more compact. That decreases the amount of water the ground can absorb when it does rain. “The problem when you have extreme precipitation,” Bosilovich said, “is the water ends up running off,” instead of soaking in and replenishing groundwater stores.Globally, freshwater levels have stayed consistently low since the 2014-2016 El Niño, while more water remains trapped in the atmosphere as water vapour. “Warming temperatures increase both the evaporation of water from the surface to the atmosphere, and the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere, increasing the frequency and intensity of drought conditions,” he noted.While there are reasons to suspect that the abrupt drop in freshwater is largely due to global warming, it can be difficult to definitively link the two, said Susanna Werth, a hydrologist and remote sensing scientist at Virginia Tech, who was not affiliated with the study. “There are uncertainties in climate predictions,” Werth said. “Measurements and models always come with errors.”It remains to be seen whether global freshwater will rebound to pre-2015 values, hold steady, or resume its decline. Considering that the nine warmest years in the modern temperature record coincided with the abrupt freshwater decline, Rodell said, “We don’t think this is a coincidence, and it could be a harbinger of what’s to come.”

Civil liberties and immigration rights groups worry Donald Trump’s incoming administration could use powerful law enforcement surveillance and big data technology to press ahead with some key policies, risking infringing on privacy rights.Republican Trump has repeatedly said he would “militarise” certain law enforcement activities, which could involve using the military for domestic law enforcement, though he has not provided any specifics.The Thomson Reuters Foundation reported in July that a victorious Trump could use surveillance systems and artificial intelligence to supercharge his plan to carry out a mass deportation of illegal immigrants.When the former president returns to the White House in January, he will have across-the-board powers backed by a Republican-controlled Senate and Congress, and a conservative majority in the Supreme Court.Against this backdrop, experts worry that an emboldened and more powerful and organised second Trump administration could exploit advances in technology and surveillance to forge ahead with policies ranging from immigration to policing.“He is likely to further empower law enforcement to invest in and deploy surveillance tools, with little regard for civil liberties concerns,” said Andrew Ferguson, a law professor at the American University in Washington, DC.The Trump campaign did not respond to the Thomson Reuters Foundation’s questions about its views on surveillance technology.“The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail. He will deliver,” said Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for the Trump-Vance Transition team.The concerns about surveillance powers are particularly acute among immigration rights groups, which worry that a Trump administration would be able to harness data brokers, facial recognition, and other tools to create lists of immigrants it would want to deport.Data brokers are companies that track and collect personal data and, in the United States, there are few regulations restricting what they can sell to law enforcement.J D Vance, Trump’s running mate, has said the Trump administration could aim to deport around 1mn people a year. By comparison, the Biden administration deported around 150,000 illegal immigrants in 2023, the vast majority of which were new arrivals at the border.“These technologies will be exploited, and probably in the worst possible way,” said Paromita Shah, the executive director of Just Futures Law, a legal immigration advocacy group.In recent years, Shah and other immigrant rights advocate groups have asked regulators to restrict immigration authorities’ access to big data tools, and filed lawsuits alleging data brokers who share such information violate consumers’ privacy. The efforts have had little results so far.After his victory, Trump told NBC News he would prioritise the deportation plan, adding there was “no price tag” on the operation.It is unclear how many undocumented migrants Trump aims to deport. The US Department of Homeland Security estimated there were 11 million immigrants without legal status in 2022.Immigration experts, however, have pointed to some bureaucratic and legal hurdles, such as insufficient immigration judges and tight budgets for hiring agents to conduct the operations.Efforts by Trump’s first administration to deport long-standing immigrants from the interior of the country were at times hampered by a lack of co-operation between local law enforcement agencies and immigration authorities, according to a study from the libertarian Cato Institute.Another concern is that Trump could exploit advances in the police’s surveillance capacity to implement his vision of “restoring law and order and public safety in America”.There has been an explosion in surveillance tools in US police department in recent years, while law enforcement’s access to commercial databases has also increased, allowing them to track people without a warrant.The number of local police departments with “real time crime centres” — central hubs where surveillance from cameras, license plate readers and other inputs flow — has almost doubled over the last four years, according to data collected by the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a digital rights group.Over 90% of large police departments in the United States currently have access to automatic license plate readers, up from around 66% in 2016, data from the Department of Justice showed.Meanwhile, the data broker industry — where law enforcement can buy location information and other personal data without a warrant — has grown four-fold since 2020 to over $411bn, according to market research firm MMR.Experts worry about the implication of this for privacy but also for racial justice in policing, which has come under close scrutiny since the police killing of George Floyd in 2020.“I don’t think that (The Trump administration) is going to be taking the time to look deeply into the racial justice or privacy arms of these new technologies,” Ferguson told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.“In fact, I think they are going to open the commercial floodgates to allow...new policing technology companies into the market.”Civil liberties and immigration rights groups say they are looking for ways to make it more difficult for the incoming Trump administration to harness these powers.The ACLU, the largest US national public interest law firm, is calling on local lawmakers to build “firewalls” that could limit Trump’s access to local policing resources.Immigration groups say they are planning to press the Department of Homeland Security to abandon some technology tools before it hands over power to the Trump administration in January, including winding down deals between immigration authorities and data brokers.During the last Trump administration, the ACLU and other civil liberties groups documented how local authorities would often share those license plate reading data with federal immigration authorities to support deportation operations.The day after Trump’s victory, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) issued a public notice asking companies to submit plans to support expanded programmes for tracking migrants, including with ankle monitors, GPS tracking, and biometric check-in technology, the technology publication Wired reported.After Trump’s victory, the ACLU created a petition asking Americans to write to Congress, calling on lawmakers to pass laws that would restrict the federal government’s ability to purchase Americans data from data brokers.“If Donald Trump’s administration gains unfettered access to our personal data, they could use it to go after communities of colour, political opponents, people seeking reproductive or gender-affirming healthcare, and anyone who disagrees with their policies,” the group wrote.Matt Cagle, a lawyer with the ACLU in California, said he also fears a Trump administration could exploit data collected by local police departments from tools like automatic license plate readers, or facial recognition systems.“When localities are collecting tons of information about their residents it becomes ripe for exploitation by any administration to try and target and locate all sorts of people,” he said.Earlier this year, a federal law that would have limited the ability of law enforcement to buy and use privately collected data — such as location information collected by apps — passed the US House of Representatives, but stalled in the Senate.“Commercial data is definitely a free for all,” Shah said.Police departments have also made the most of the Biden administration’s decision to give them access to Covid relief funding for “public safety” purposes.Many have used this to buy sophisticated surveillance systems — including social media monitoring systems, expanded surveillance camera systems, and license-plate readers, according to an analysis by non-profit Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC).Policing groups say these tools make crime fighting more efficient — but civil libertarians have warned about dragnet surveillance, which collects data on everyone and not only those suspected of crimes.Trump’s language during the campaign — including his promise to deploy the military against the “radical left” or “enemy within” and pledge to persecute his political enemies — raises broader concerns about what the administration could do with these kinds of powerful surveillance tools, Ferguson said.“They might start with undocumented individuals,” he said. “But then you can turn the same power on any disfavoured group.” – Thomson Reuters Foundation

Global economic recovery is influenced by a variety of interrelated factors that contribute to revitalising economic growth and stability.Obviously, these factors vary depending on the nature of the economic downturn. Essentially they include government policies and stimulus measures, global trade and supply chains, consumer and business confidence, energy and commodity prices, resilient financial systems and labour market recovery among others.International trade has displayed extraordinary volatility in recent years, according to the region’s top bank Qatar’s QNB. After the sharp collapse in trade volumes in 2020 resulting from the Covid-pandemic, a strong rebound took place in 2021 as the pandemic gradually receded and the global economy began to progressively reopen.Afterwards, a challenging environment emerged amid rising interest rates, high inflation, and geopolitical instability, QNB noted recently.These negative conditions resulted in a sharp deceleration of trade activity in 2022, which was even more disappointing in 2023, displaying a highly unusual contraction.During the last 40 years, a contraction in real trade volumes had only been recorded in 2009 as an aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and in 2020 with the dramatic disruptions caused by the Covid-pandemic.While some of the headwinds remain relevant today, including a challenging geopolitical environment fraught with protectionism and logistical disruptions, a moderate recovery began to take place this year.In QNB’s view, although global trade growth will remain below the long-term pre-Covid pandemic average, the recovery is set to continue in 2025.According to analysts, government spending on infrastructure, healthcare, or direct financial aid to businesses and individuals helps stimulate demand across the globe.In order to increase liquidity and encourage borrowing and investment, central banks around the world need to reduce interest rates or implement quantitative easing.Economic recovery often hinges on renewed confidence among consumers and businesses. Higher confidence leads to increased spending and investment.Restoring and strengthening global trade relationships is critical, especially if supply chains were disrupted during the downturn.Trade agreements and reduced tariffs facilitate smoother international commerce, analysts say.Another major contributing factor to global economic recovery is a resilient financial system. A well-functioning banking sector ensures that credit flows to businesses and consumers.Regulatory measures to stabilise financial markets prevent economic shocks from worsening.Equally important is technological innovation that drives productivity and opens up new industries, creating jobs and economic opportunities.Digital transformation obviously helps businesses adapt more quickly to new market realities.In a recent economic report, QNB noted that if there is no major escalation in protectionism and geopolitical disruptions, it expects growth in volumes of trade to continue to recover, increasing to 3.2% in 2025, from an expected 2.8% this year, amid positive leading trade indicators, aggressive economic stimulus measures in China, and the policy interest rate cutting cycles in advanced economies.Global economic recovery is usually a combination of these factors working in tandem, and their effectiveness depends on the underlying causes of the downturn, such as financial crises, pandemics, or geopolitical conflicts. Each recovery is unique, shaped by the specific circumstances and challenges faced by economies.

The development of childhood and the enhancement of children’s rights form a guiding framework towards creating a better world now and in the future.By listening to children we can fulfil their right to self-expression, understand their ideas for a better world and include their priorities in our actions today.This year, the world and its international institutions are celebrating World Children’s Day under the theme “Listen to the future. Stand Up for Children’s Rights.” World Children’s Day offers everyone an inspirational entry-point to advocate, promote and celebrate children’s rights, translating into dialogues and actions that will build a better world for children.World Children’s Day was first established in 1954 as Universal Children’s Day and is celebrated on November 20 each year to promote international togetherness, awareness among children worldwide, and improving children’s welfare.November 20 is an important date as it is the date when the UN General Assembly adopted the Declaration of the Rights of the Child. It is also the date in 1989 when the UN General Assembly adopted the Convention on the Rights of the Child.The UN Children’s Fund (Unicef) is one of the leading international organisations active in the field of children’s rights, their development, and protection. Unicef works in over 190 countries and territories, focusing special effort on reaching the most vulnerable and excluded children living amid social challenges and armed conflicts. Unicef became a permanent part of the UN system in 1953 and has launched global campaigns focusing especially on health and education.Unicef draws attention to poverty as a primary concern, which affects children disproportionately around the world. One in every six children globally lives in extreme poverty, earning less than $1.90 per day, and their families struggle to meet basic healthcare costs and the nutrition necessary for a strong start in life. In 2019, 149mn children under the age of five suffered from stunting due to malnutrition.Despite significant progress in school enrolment rates in many parts of the world, more than 175mn children are not enrolled in pre-primary education, missing a critical investment opportunity and suffering deep inequalities from the start, missing a critical investment opportunity and suffering deep inequalities from the start. Unicef statistics show that 6 out of 10 children leave primary school without achieving the minimum levels of literacy, writing, or mathematics. This challenge is exacerbated in areas affected by prolonged armed conflicts.For over 20 years, Unicef has been working to garner support against the recruitment of children in armed conflicts. Since then, thousands of children have been released due to action plans decided by the UN Security Council and other measures aimed at ending and preventing the exploitation of children by armed forces and groups. However, serious challenges remain in protecting children affected by armed conflict.In 2019, 1.6bn children, or about 69%, lived in conflict-affected countries. About 426mn children live in conflict zones. These children face numerous risks, including displacement, separation from their families, forced recruitment, or becoming victims of organised gangs in some fragile states.In this context, violence against children represents one of the most significant developmental challenges, as it is a major barrier to achieving basic cultural and educational requirements. This includes the growing issue of bullying via the internet, leading to isolation, loneliness, and fear, particularly among younger children who are more vulnerable because they are less able to speak out and seek support.Qatar’s government and its institutions place great emphasis on enhancing and protecting children’s rights. This is clearly demonstrated through the establishment of numerous legal frameworks, as well as the adoption of administrative and practical measures in various fields at the national, regional, and international levels. This is in line with Qatar National Vision 2030 and its commitments to the Convention on the Rights of the Child, to which Qatar acceded in 1992 and ratified in 1995.Qatar has created appropriate mechanisms to protect children’s rights, such as the Protection and Social Rehabilitation Centre (Aman), under the umbrella of Qatar Foundation for Social Work. This centre aims to raise awareness of child protection and build institutional capacities in this area. Additionally, Qatar supports efforts to enhance and protect children’s rights in education through numerous governmental initiatives and initiatives by civil society institutions, providing quality education opportunities for both Qatari citizens and residents.Qatar has established one of the world’s most advanced educational systems, which received a government expenditure of nearly 3.3% of the country’s GDP in 2019 — one of the highest public expending rates in the Middle East and North Africa, according to the Word Bank. Nearly QR19.2bn ($5.3bn) was allocated to the education sector from the budget, representing about 9.3% of total expenditures allocated to the education sector and child care institutions.Regarding the enhancement of the protection of children, Qatar has not overlooked the role of technological development and the opportunities it provides in the digital field for education and enhancing the protection of children’s rights. In this field, the Qatar Social Work Foundation launched in 2018 the ‘Help Me’ app, as the first e-service for children that enables them to request help via mobile phone in case they are harmed.At the level of regional and international cooperation, the State of Qatar implemented international and regional initiatives aimed at providing quality education to millions of children who have been deprived due to poverty, armed conflicts, insecurity, and disasters. Among these initiatives, for example, are the “Protect Education in Insecurity and Conflict” programme — a founding member of the Global Coalition to Protect Education from Attack (GCPEA), and the Educate A Child (EAC) programme — an unprecedented initiative that enrolled 10mn children in schooling through implementing over 65 projects in 50 countries, in partnership with 82 global partners.The State of Qatar is proud of its close partnership with the Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict, and hosting and financially supporting its Doha-based Analysis and Outreach Hub for the years 2018-2023. Qatar is also proud of its partnership with Unicef to implement many projects and programmes, which contributed to saving the lives of children, defending their rights and helping them achieve their potential, including the opening of the Unesco Regional Office as part of the UN House in Doha in March 2022.The 10-year partnership between Unicef and Qatar’s Education Above All (EAA) Foundation has achieveda major transformation in the lives of over 5mn children and young people in 17 countries, through their joint programs, which were reflected in “A Decade of Dreams” exhibition, held in partnership with Unicef in New York on Sept 13, 2023, to mark 10 years of effective and fruitful cooperation to change the lives of millions of children around the world.

Healthy soil is indispensable to life on Earth, sustaining nearly 60% of all living species. As the second-largest carbon reservoir after oceans, soil is also among our planet’s most important natural assets in the fight against climate change.But the world’s soils are under immense strain. Droughts are increasingly turning fertile land into deserts, while pesticide use drastically reduces soil biodiversity, threatening our ability to produce healthy food. As high-quality agricultural land becomes scarcer, conflicts over shrinking topsoil – critical for crop growth – are intensifying.The Heinrich Böll Foundation’s recent Soil Atlas highlights the many ways we are losing the ground beneath our feet. The current industrial agriculture system has been a major driver of soil degradation, accelerating biodiversity loss and depleting vital carbon reserves. Yet despite its impact, the agriculture sector has made little progress in advancing climate goals. Its global greenhouse-gas emissions have remained largely unchanged over the past decade.As countries worldwide set new emissions-reduction targets under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, it is clear that achieving real emissions cuts will require developing strategies to reduce the agriculture sector’s carbon footprint.One approach touted as a potential solution is “carbon farming,” which uses market incentives to reward farmers for storing carbon in their soil. By adopting practices like planting cover crops, farmers can earn certificates for increasing carbon storage. These certificates can then be sold as carbon credits in voluntary or government-mandated markets, providing farmers with an additional income stream.This concept has gained traction in both public-policy circles and the private sector. Fertiliser and pesticide companies like Yara and Bayer have already rolled out their own certification programmes, while major agriculture producers such as Canada and Australia have integrated these credits into their markets. The European Union is also developing a certification program for carbon farming, and global carbon markets are expected to follow suit.Unfortunately, the newfound popularity of carbon farming risks perpetuating the false notion that emissions reductions and soil carbon storage are interchangeable. Even if we accept this premise, developing a system to offset emissions through carbon storage is extremely difficult. For such a system to be effective, storage must originate from a change in farm practices and be measurable and secure for at least a century.But given that carbon stored in soils is inherently unstable and can easily be re-released into the atmosphere by droughts, floods, or shifts in farming practices, long-term storage remains highly unreliable.Previous attempts to address this instability in other natural reserves have been unsuccessful. For example, reserve credits set aside to offset unintended carbon releases from forests in California are being depleted faster than anticipated after the intense wildfires there. And there has been little interest in credits with expiration dates, which would require buyers to renew them periodically.While it is possible to measure the carbon stored in soil, doing so is neither simple nor cheap. The accuracy of these measurements depends on several factors, including sampling depth, location, and timeframe. Alternative methods, based on limited sampling or mathematical models, have failed to overcome measurement challenges.Since prices for soil-carbon credits have been too low to cover the costs of changing agricultural practices, farmers are unlikely to embrace them. In response, European regulators have opted to make credit generation easier, rather than adjusting price incentives, thus compromising the system’s integrity.Beyond methodological challenges, carbon farming can serve as a smokescreen for the livestock industry. Industry groups claim that carbon storage in grasslands can offset methane and nitrous-oxide emissions. But this scenario is unrealistic, given that it would require vast amounts of grassland. It is well established that the most effective way to reduce livestock emissions is to cut livestock numbers and consumption of meat and dairy.The carbon-market approach views maintaining soil health and reducing emissions as an either/or choice. In reality, both are necessary, as healthy soil is essential for food production. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found that sequestering carbon in soils – or anywhere else – cannot replace emissions reductions. Targeting emissions reductions, rather than relying solely on soil credits, could have the additional benefit of weakening the appeal of controversial technologies that aim to remove carbon from the atmosphere.Simply put, a market-based approach to carbon storage cannot deliver the transformative change we need. We cannot offset our way out of the climate crisis. Instead, we should redirect public funds currently spent on agricultural subsidies to investments that improve soil health and support farmers as they undertake the transition to a climate-resilient food system. – Project SyndicateSophie Scherger is Policy Officer for Climate and Agriculture at the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy’s European office.

Vladimir Putin’s hypersonic missile carried a simple message to the West over Ukraine: back off, and if you don’t, Russia reserves the right to hit US and British military facilities.Russia fired a new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile known as “Oreshnik”, or Hazel Tree, at Ukraine on Thursday in what Putin said was a direct response to strikes on Russia by Ukrainian forces with US and British missiles.In a special statement from the Kremlin, the Russian president said the war was escalating towards a global conflict, though he avoided any nuclear rhetoric.Putin has also refrained, so far, from actually striking the West, a step that could lead to a direct confrontation between Russia and the Nato alliance — and a confrontation that US President Joe Biden said in March 2022 would be World War III.In his statement, the Kremlin chief gave the West notice that Russia reserved the right to strike at the military installations of countries that let Ukraine use their missiles to hit Russia — so far only the US and Britain.“Putin is saying to the West stop — halt — back off,” Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, told Reuters.“The signal Putin is sending to the world is that we consider these strikes as the direct entry of the US and Britain into a war against Russia,” he said. “But we are not responding with all our might right now because these strikes against Russia will not change the outcome of the war.” A Russian said Putin had hinted that he wanted to steer clear of escalation, though the odds of Russia using nuclear weapons remained pretty high.The source did not clarify whether he was talking about tactical battlefield weapons or long-range nuclear missiles.President Biden dropped his opposition to Ukraine firing US missiles at targets deep inside Russia in response to North Korea’s entry to the war, a shift in US policy that took on added urgency following Donald Trump’s Nov 5 election win, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.The decision could help to “Trump-proof” parts of Biden’s Ukraine agenda by strengthening Kyiv’s position in case it loses US support, one of the sources said.Russian officials cast the move by Biden as a reckless decision by a lame-duck outgoing administration aimed at creating a serious crisis for Trump to resolve when he is inaugurated as president in January.That puts Putin in a difficult position: if he escalates now, he could stoke just such a crisis. But if he doesn’t, then the West could interpret him as weak and keep pushing through clear Russian red lines.When Putin warned in September that Russia would update its nuclear doctrine to allow potentially a nuclear response to the use of conventional Western missiles to strike Russia, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said it was not the first time he had “rattled the nuclear sabre”.The day Ukraine fired US-made ATACMS missiles deep into Russian territory, Putin approved the lowering of the nuclear threshold flagged two months earlier.After Putin lowered the threshold, the Pentagon said that the US had not changed its nuclear posture — or observed a change in Russia’s nuclear posture.The Pentagon and Britain’s Ministry of Defence did not immediately respond to questions about whether they had changed any security postures in response to Putin’s threat to attack their military installations.When asked what the main message of Putin’s statement was, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said yesterday that the key thing was that Russia will react to “reckless actions” from Western countries which take part in strikes on Russia.“The Russian side has clearly demonstrated its capabilities, and the contours of further retaliatory actions in case our concerns are not taken into account are clearly outlined,” he said.

His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani visited Colombia on Thursday, the third stop of his Latin American tour that began in Brazil and continued in Costa Rica.In the Colombian capital, Bogotá, HH the Amir met President Gustavo Petro to discuss ways to enhance relations between the two countries in various fields and exchange views on regional and international issues of mutual interest.HH the Amir’s visit to Colombia and the discussions during the visit will strengthen bilateral relations and push them toward broader horizons. This reflects HH the Amir’s keenness to open new markets and opportunities for the Qatari economy, in line with Qatar’s National Vision 2030 and its ambitious goals to build stronger and more resilient relations with nations worldwide.The two countries enjoy distinguished relations, further reinforced by both sides’ desire to develop and elevate them across all fields, particularly in political, economic, and investment domains. These relations are based on mutual interests and respect, supported by numerous agreements signed between the two countries and official reciprocal visits at various levels.His Highess the Father Amir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani visited Colombia in February 2013 as part of a tour that included Peru and Ecuador. This visit marked a pivotal moment in the development of co-operative relations. During the visit, discussions were held on bilateral relations and ways to support and develop them across various fields. A number of agreements and memorandums of understanding were signed, including an air services agreement, a memorandum of understanding in the field of sports, a memorandum of understanding between the Qatar Chamber and the Colombian Confederation of Chambers of Commerce, a memorandum of understanding in the field of mining, and a memorandum of understanding in the area of investment.Additionally, His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani’s visit to Colombia in July 2016 marked a new phase in bilateral relations. During this visit, an official meeting was held, chaired by HH the Amir and the then-president Juan Manuel Santos, which focused on bilateral relations in various fields and ways to enhance them in line with a shared commitment to further development, especially in the areas of investment and energy. A number of regional and international issues were also reviewed during the session.HH the Amir and Santos witnessed the signing of several agreements and memoranda of understanding at the Presidential Palace in Bogotá, including the establishment of a political consultation mechanism between the two countries, an agreement to waive visa requirements for holders of diplomatic, special, and official passports, a memorandum of understanding on legal and judicial co-operation, and a memorandum of understanding between the Qatar Investment Authority and ProColombia to enhance investment co-operation and exchange information on investment opportunities in various sectors.As part of ongoing meetings and communications between the leaderships of the two countries, HH the Amir met President Gustavo Petro last December during COP28 in Dubai. They discussed bilateral relations and ways to develop them in various fields, as well as issues on the Summit’s agenda and both countries’ efforts to combat climate change.In October, HE the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani received Minister of Foreign Affairs Luis Gilberto Murillo during his visit to Qatar, where they reviewed co-operation between the two countries and ways to strengthen it, as well as regional and international issues of mutual interest.To enhance political co-ordination, the first round of political consultations between the foreign ministries of Qatar and Colombia was held in Bogotá in October of last year. The Qatari side was chaired by HE the Secretary-General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Dr Ahmed bin Hassan al-Hammadi, while the Colombian side was led by Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Francisco J Coy.Also in October of last year, HE the Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad bin Sherida al-Kaabi met in Doha with Colombian Minister of Foreign Affairs Luis Gilberto Murillo. During the meeting, they reviewed bilateral relations and co-operation in the energy sector between Qatar and Colombia and discussed ways to develop them further.As part of co-operation and consultations between the two countries in international forums and on global issues, representatives from the governments of Qatar, Colombia, and Finland in January 2022 emphasised the need for the swift implementation of the youth, peace, and security agenda worldwide. This was expressed in a high-level statement issued by representatives of the three governments at the conclusion of the High-Level Global Conference on Youth-Inclusive Peace Processes, which was held virtually from January 19 to 21, 2022.The High-Level Global Conference on Youth-Inclusive Peace Processes was a joint initiative by the governments of Qatar, Finland, and Colombia. The conference was co-organised by the Office of the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Youth and the Search for Common Ground, in partnership with the UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, UN Women, the UN Development Programme, the UN Population Fund, Education Above All Foundation, and the United Network of Young Peacebuilders.In June 2018, the Permanent Mission of Qatar to the UN and the Permanent Mission of Colombia at the UN hosted an event at the UN headquarters in New York to launch the book Herstory: Celebrating Women Leaders in the UN, which was prepared by the Permanent Missions of Qatar and Colombia.HE the Permanent Representative of Qatar to the UN Sheikha Alya Ahmed bin Saif al-Thani said that Qatar’s participation in the creation of this book is a recognition of the leadership role of women at the UN and an opportunity to highlight significant achievements through a historical narrative in photographs.

Donald Trump’s nomination of Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence has raised questions over the politicisation of Washington’s spy agencies and their subservience to the White House.A strident opponent of US military interventionism, the former Hawaii congresswoman has roiled the intelligence community with past comments supportive of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his ally Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.“Her appointment would be a threat to the security of the United States,” said Tom Nichols, a professor at the US Naval War College.“A person with Gabbard’s views should not be allowed anywhere near the crown jewels of American intelligence.”Gabbard, 43, who switched sides from the Democrats to back Trump’s re-election, has yet to be confirmed by the Senate.But lawmakers’ approval would see a woman with no experience in the field take on the eminently political role of US intelligence chief and overall responsibility for the 18 US intelligence agencies, come January.The DNI sits atop of all of America’s intelligence agencies, including the CIA.The post was created in 2005 to remedy a lack of co-ordination between US agencies that lawmakers believed had prevented Washington from foiling the September 11 attacks.“It’s a bureaucratic role to ensure that all the intelligence agencies are speaking to one another, that they are co-ordinating.....that CIA isn’t running the whole show,” explained Mathew Burrows, a former CIA officer now with Washington think-tank Stimson.A key part of Gabbard’s job would be to oversee Trump’s daily intelligence briefing.“Now, Gabbard has the power — because she oversees the president’s daily brief — of removing intel analysis that doesn’t suit whatever Trump decides as US foreign policy.”“I would be worried that her particular views would colour and politicise any of the intel she got.”Gabbard’s views have sparked controversy over the past several years, including when she talked up “Russia’s legitimate concerns” over Ukraine’s possible entry into Nato.Or when she met with Assad in Syria, accusing American political elites of warmongering and asserting her desire to avoid conflict.“Her opposition to a no-fly zone over Syria came not from a desire to avoid war, but from a desire to protect the regime of Bashar Assad,” according to Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of Saint Andrews in Scotland.“What if the US is about to become an ally of Putin? That is a question we can ask ourselves.”With Gabbard’s nomination, Trump no doubt hopes to spare himself the friction with intelligence chiefs that marked his first term, when he called them “naive” and advised them to “go back to school.”At the end of 2018, his defence secretary James Mattis resigned, citing disagreement with the president over the withdrawal of US troops from Syria. Trump then openly scorned “the world’s most overrated general,” roiling the intelligence and defence communities. In May 2019, Trump released classified files on Russia to defend himself against accusations of collusion with Moscow during the 2016 election campaign.Soon afterwards, he sacked the then-DNI Dan Coats. After being denied the job, his deputy Susan Gordon mocked the president who she said had “no foundation for understanding the limits of intelligence”.The second term will certainly start off on a different footing. Trump “wants to neutralise any such criticism that comes from the intel community,” said Burrows.Gabbard’s role is key.“She’s got to understand that her position is telling truth to power. And I’m sure that Trump didn’t have that in mind, because I believe he thinks he has all the truth he needs.”The real consequences of Gabbard’s appointment will be known with time. Intelligence agents, trained to serve the state regardless of who is in charge, will continue their mission as always. But already, “the community inevitably fears a witch-hunt. People have taken a stand on the election, and some have come out into the open,” said Alexandre Papaemmanuel, a professor at Sciences-Po in Paris.Within the intelligence community of Western allies, “there are channels that have existed for a long time, and there is trust between men and women who have been in contact for a long time,” he told AFP. But he predicts that Trump, with Gabbard as his lieutenant, will disrupt that.“We can also imagine that these relationships will be more transactional than the fluid ones we know today, based on a shared understanding of the threats and fragility facing the Western world.“Now that this alignment no longer exists, will information sharing be as fluid?”

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The US decision to authorise long-range Ukrainian strikes could help Kyiv defend the foothold in Russia’s Kursk region that it seized as leverage in any war talks, but may come too late to change the course of the war, analysts said.Two months before leaving office, President Joe Biden lifted some restrictions that have blocked Kyiv from using US-supplied weapons for strikes deeper into Russian territory, in a major policy change, Reuters reported on Sunday.Military analysts said the impact on the battlefield, where Ukraine has been on the back foot for months, would depend on what limits remained. But while the shift may shore up the Kursk operation, it was unlikely to be a game-changer overall.“The decision comes late, and like other decisions in this vein, it may be too late to substantially change the course of the fighting,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.“Long-range strikes were always one piece of the puzzle, and had been overly freighted with expectations in this war.”There also is no way to know how long the new policy will last. It was criticised by Richard Grenell, one of the closest foreign policy advisors of returning president Donald Trump, who replaces Biden on January 20. Trump has long criticised the scale of US aid to Kyiv and has vowed to end the war quickly, without saying how. A Trump spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Ukraine has lobbied for the change for months, arguing its inability to hit areas inside Russia, and in particular military airbases hosting warplanes involved in strikes on Ukraine, was a major handicap.Russian forces, which have been on the offensive for more than a year, have been advancing at their fastest rate since 2022 in eastern Ukraine and exerting pressure in the northeast and southeast.Russia says Ukraine cannot fire the missiles at targets inside Russia without direct help from Nato allies, calling this a major escalation. On Monday, the Kremlin said any such decision would mean the United States was directly involved in the conflict.The first Ukrainian strikes could happen in the coming days and are likely to be carried out using ATACMS rockets, which have a range of up to 190 miles (306km), Reuters reported.A central European defence official told Reuters the strikes would give Kyiv a greater chance to defend itself from aerial attacks, but would not decisively swing the conflict in Ukraine’s favour.Russia had already moved many of its air assets beyond the reach of Western weapons in Ukraine, the official said, although the range would cover beyond the area of Kursk occupied by Ukraine.Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said he was not celebrating just yet as it was unknown how many rockets the Ukrainians had and whether they had enough to impact the battlefield. The decision to authorise the strikes only after months of Ukrainian lobbying follows a pattern repeated throughout the war as the Biden administration tried to balance its support for Ukraine with concern about escalation.Previously, Washington vacillated for months before approving giving Ukraine long-range missiles, tanks and planes.Some military analysts say such delays gave Moscow time to recover from early failures and reinforce defences of occupied territory, contributing to the failure of a major Ukrainian counteroffensive last year.Being able to attack Russian territory with missiles could have its most direct impact in Kursk, where Ukraine aims to hold a salient it captured after its first major cross-border assault in August. The Russian land could be a bargaining chip in any negotiations after Trump enters the White House.Kyiv says Russia has massed 50,000 troops to try to retake the territory in Kursk, and that it has deployed 11,000 North Koreans, some of whom it says have joined the fight. Russia has neither confirmed nor denied the deployment.“ATACMS missiles can hold at risk high value Russian and North Korean targets. This would help Ukrainian forces defend the Kursk salient, which is under pressure,” said Kofman.Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, said it would be difficult for Ukraine to hold its ground in Kursk in the long term, but its fortunes there would depend on resources.“Ukraine has committed some of its best units there, so they may be able to hold for some time if they continue to receive enough ammunition and combat replacements,” he said.Kyiv-based military analyst Serhii Kuzan said there were an array of targets in Russia at a depth of up to 500km from Ukraine that Kyiv’s forces saw as priorities, but many of which would still be out out of range of ATACMS.France and Britain have not spelled out whether they would follow the Americans by allowing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles, which have a range of 250km (155 miles).“Russia can shoot down Storm Shadow and ATACMS, so the salvo size that can be launched is also an important consideration,” Lee added.On the streets of Kyiv on Monday, the general feeling was that the decision would help, but that it had come far too late.“This should have been used either as a preventative measure, or as a sharp reaction in February or March 2022. Now it does not play a big role,” said Olga Korovyachuk, 21. - ReutersKremlin vows responseRussia has accused US President Joe Biden of escalating the war in Ukraine, promising to respond to his decision to allow Kyiv to use long-range missiles supplied by Washington to strike targets inside Russia.Biden, who in January hands over the White House to Donald Trump, a sceptic of US support for Ukraine, urged a gathering of world leaders at the G20 Summit — attended by Russia’s foreign minister — to follow the US lead in backing Ukraine.Ukraine says strikes in Russia will help it prevent aerial bombardments that have levelled entire districts of towns near the front line and decimated energy facilities across the country.“It’s obvious that the outgoing administration in Washington intends... to continue fuelling the fire and provoke a further escalation of tensions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.Speaking at the G20 summit in Brazil, Biden urged other leaders to support Ukraine’s “sovereignty”.“The United States strongly supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Everyone around this table in my view should as well,” Biden told the meeting.A US official told AFP the major policy shift was in response to Russia’s deployment of thousands of North Korean troops to aid its war effort.Peskov said President Vladimir Putin had clearly expressed Moscow’s position in September when he declared that using the missiles would put Nato “at war” with Russia.Putin said then that if Ukraine attacked Russia with long-range missiles, Moscow would “take the appropriate decisions” — a point the foreign ministry echoed on Monday.“Kyiv’s use of long-range missiles to attack our territory would represent the direct involvement of the United States and its satellites in hostilities against Russia,” the ministry said in a statement, vowing an “appropriate and palpable” response. - AFP

A deal at the COP29 climate talks on trading carbon credits could see billions of dollars move into emissions-reduction projects this decade but after a string of scandals, the market will first need to win over wary countries and communities.Carbon trading is seen as one way for richer countries to meet their emissions reduction targets at the same time as helping poorer countries move to greener energy and to improve their resilience against climate change.A UN-backed global market for creating and trading carbon credits has been discussed for at least 10 years. In its absence, a patchwork of voluntary standards has led to a number of situations where credits were found to not be delivering the climate benefits they claimed.While an early deal last week saw nations agree on some quality standards, points still to be hammered out include what a global registry to track trades and label carbon credits would look like, and what information projects will need to disclose.If a deal can be reached this week in Baku, Azerbaijan, “the main impact would be a confidence boost”, said Andrea Bonzanni, international policy director at the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA).“It would provide both countries and the private sector with the signal that there is consensus on the rules of the game. And that would mean that companies would invest with more confidence,” he added.IETA has said a UN-backed market could be worth $250bn a year by 2030, and count towards offsetting an extra 5bn metric tons of carbon emissions annually. Governments including Bolivia, Singapore and Switzerland have struck dozens of agreements already to do carbon credit trades under the impending UN rules, backing investments in clean cookstoves and solar power. Others are expected to join in as they face pressure to show progress towards their national emissions-cutting targets.Private sector buyers could include airlines, under a UN-backed plan to scale up their purchases launching in 2027, as well as companies looking to burnish their green credentials with customers and investors.The boss of carbon project backer Key Carbon, Luke Leslie, said his firm would look to expand its investments in countries that quickly get their local market up and running.While the prospect of selling credits could offer a boost to cash-strapped governments, some remain wary - or outright opposed.Environmental group Greenpeace has called offsets a “smokescreen” while the WWF opposes their use. Some local communities are also against using them.Eriel Deranger, executive director of campaign group Indigenous Climate Action, and a member of the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation in northern Alberta, Canada, said carbon credits distracted from calls for more public funds for climate action, and for companies to simply cut their own emissions.“It’s going to do substantively nothing to actually reduce our emissions,” she said.For those countries which do opt to sell credits, African Development Bank Chief Executive Akinwumi Adesina warned against doing so too quickly or too cheaply, to avoid being “short changed”.Uganda’s energy minister, Ruth Nankabirwa, said her country was seeking to attract investment in clean cookstove projects, but had yet to use credits.“It isn’t clear how one can benefit, how the auditing is done of carbon credits,” she said.Nkiruka Maduekwe, director general of Nigeria’s national council on climate change, agreed, describing high integrity carbon credits as “the key”. The rules of the registry being addressed at the COP talks will be central to answering those concerns, but governments are struggling to agree. The European Union — which has ruled out using credits to meet its domestic climate goals — wants a registry that can issue and manage credit trades, to help poorer countries access the market, people familiar with the negotiations told Reuters.The United States, however, is advocating for a registry that only tracks credit trading, arguing that empowering it to execute trades could risk giving a UN seal of approval to credits with weak environmental credentials, the sources said.Even if a deal is reached between countries, companies may still need government incentives to buy in, given their pledges so far have been voluntary and boards are concerned about reputational risk, said Sheri Hickok, chief executive at carbon project developer Climate Impact Partners. Flooring company Interface and Australian telco Telstra Group, previously big buyers of credits, both told Reuters a UN deal would not change their decisions to exit the carbon markets, as they focus on cutting their emissions directly.