Opinion

Relations between Qatar and the United Kingdom have deep historical roots that have grown and flourished across various fields over the past decades. These relations are reinforced through high-level visits, resulting in the signing of agreements, memorandums of understanding, and strong partnerships between the two countries in multiple areas. The relationship has also led to co-operation on international issues and regional matters to serve international peace and security and address global challenges, particularly developments in the Gaza Strip and the occupied Palestinian territories.His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani’s visit to the United Kingdom underscores the ongoing trajectory of these unique relations and enhances the sustainable partnership between the two countries. The relationship between Qatar and the United Kingdom continues to witness prosperity and growth. In this context, His Highness the Amir will embark on a two-day state visit to London at the invitation of King Charles III of the United Kingdom.The visit includes a meeting between the Amir and Prime Minister Keir Starmer at a time when both countries seek consultations on various regional and international issues while strengthening their political and economic ties. His Highness the Amir met with King Charles III on the sidelines of the COP28 UN Climate Change Conference, held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, in December 2023. His Highness also met with Prime Minister Starmer during the 2023 Summer Olympic Games in Paris in July 2023.Previously, the Amir visited London in May 2023 to attend the coronation ceremony of King Charles III. During this visit, he held discussions with former British prime minister Rishi Sunak, addressing several emerging regional and international issues and exploring ways to strengthen bilateral relations. The Amir also visited the United Kingdom in May 2022, where he met with former prime minister Boris Johnson. The visit witnessed the signing of a memorandum of understanding on a strategic investment partnership between the governments of both countries. Additionally, a memorandum of understanding was signed between QatarEnergy and the UK Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy on energy co-operation.On the other hand, His Highness the Amir received in Doha last September the Speaker of the House of Commons, Sir Lindsay Harvey Hoyle, and his accompanying delegation. During their meeting, they discussed bilateral relations, regional and international developments, and reviewed the friendship and strategic co-operation between Qatar and the United Kingdom, exploring ways to strengthen and further develop these relations.As part of the distinguished relations between the two countries, the Amir reviewed last July with Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Defence Secretary John Healey the strong bilateral relations between the two countries, as well as prospects for enhancing and developing them across various fields. They also discussed regional and international developments, particularly the situation in the Gaza Strip and the occupied Palestinian territories.Since last year, Qatari and British diplomacy has been actively engaged in responding to the escalation in the Middle East, especially the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip. HE the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani hosted in Doha Lammy and Healey.The meeting focused on reviewing the strategic co-operation between the two countries, ways to support and develop it, and the latest developments in Gaza and the occupied Palestinian territories, as well as the ongoing joint mediation efforts to end the war in the Gaza Strip. During the meeting, the UK Foreign Secretary and Defence Secretary expressed their thanks to Qatar for its joint mediation efforts to end the war in Gaza.HE Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani also hosted in Doha former UK foreign secretary David Cameron last January. During the meeting, they reviewed the co-operation between the two countries, particularly in the area of development assistance, and discussed regional developments, especially the situation in the Gaza Strip and the occupied Palestinian territories.In February 2023, the Qatar-UK inaugural Strategic Dialogue 2023 took place in London. During this session, both sides reaffirmed their deep and close partnership, which enables them to face regional and global challenges together. They expressed their commitment to accelerate co-operation in a range of shared priorities, starting with increasing support to de-escalate tensions and work toward enhancing peace in the Middle East, in addition to directing relief to Turkiye and Syria after the earthquake, as well as to Ukraine and the Horn of Africa. They agreed to work more closely to de-escalate tensions and achieve peace.Qatar-Britain relations are distinguished by their strength across all fields, with both countries linked by numerous agreements and memorandums of understanding in various sectors, including the military sector. Last month, former Chief of Staff of Qatar Armed Forces Staff Lieutenant-General (Pilot) Salem bin Hamad bin Aqeel al-Nabit made an official visit to London, during which he met with his British counterpart, Roland Walker. They discussed several topics of mutual interest, military co-operation between the two sides, and ways to enhance and develop it, especially since the two countries share strong military relations that have spanned decades and have grown in recent years after signing several agreements to strengthen military and defence co-operation.Among the most significant contracts signed between Qatar and the United Kingdom is the purchase of Typhoon aircraft, which has contributed to strengthening the air capabilities of the Qatar Armed Forces, as well as co-operation in military training and the exchange of defence expertise. British forces actively participate in military training and manoeuvres with their Qatari counterparts to enhance combat efficiency and develop defence capabilities.On the commercial side, the two countries have significant trade and investment relations. During the third Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO) between Qatar and the United Kingdom, held in London in August 2022, HE the former Minister of Commerce and Industry Sheikh Mohammed bin Hamad bin Qassim al-Thani said after meeting former minister for international trade in the United Kingdom Ranil Malcolm Jayawardena that the number of UK companies operating in Qatar is estimated at more than 1,200 active companies in various economic fields, emphasising that the United Kingdom is a prominent destination for Qatari investments, which have entered many strategic sectors such as real estate development, hospitality, healthcare, technology, and more.In a similar vein, the Minister of State for Trade Policy in the UK Department for Business and Trade, Greg Hands, said that Qatar and the United Kingdom enjoy an exceptionally strong and unique relationship. In an interview with Qatar News Agency (QNA) on January 8, the British official stated that the value of Qatari investments in the United Kingdom is estimated at around £40bn, spread across several key sectors, such as Heathrow Airport, Harrods department store, British Airways, and various other prestigious British brands. Trade with Qatar alone amounts to about £11.4bn, representing around one-fifth of the United Kingdom’s trade with the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries, according to the British official.The Qatar-Britain relationship has spanned decades of co-operation. Since the discovery of oil and gas in the Arabian Gulf, British companies have played a fundamental and pivotal role in developing the oil and gas industry in Qatar and the region. Qatar is considered one of the United Kingdom’s main energy partners, supplying around 30% of its natural gas needs.The partnership agreement signed between the two countries in 2010 represents a significant milestone in the history of Qatar-Britain relations. Under this agreement, both countries agreed to intensify their high-level dialogues by holding regular ministerial consultations on regional issues. These relations have expanded to encompass bilateral co-operation in all fields, especially politics, economics, trade, defence, culture, education, life sciences, financial services, healthcare, green technology, and the Internet.In the cultural and educational spheres, the United Kingdom remains one of the primary destinations for Qatari students pursuing their studies abroad, including institutions such as the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst. The number of Qatari students studying in the United Kingdom has been steadily increasing for decades.

Australia has kicked off a landmark process by announcing the world’s first national teen social media ban (for children aged under 16), setting a benchmark for global jurisdictions with one of the toughest regulations targeting Big Tech. The law forces tech giants from Instagram and Facebook owner Meta to TikTok to stop minors logging in or face fines of up to A$49.5mn ($32mn). A trial of methods to enforce it will start in January with the ban to take effect in a year.Now comes the interesting part. Software testers hired by Australia’s government to determine how to enforce the ban have worked on defence and election contracts but will use another experience to guide their study: wrangling their own children online, Reuters reported. Andrew Hammond, general manager at tech contractor KJR said the company will conduct the trial on about 1,200 randomly chosen Australians from January to March. The study, one of the biggest ever trials of age-checking technology, will likely set the course for lawmakers and tech platforms around the world as they navigate a push to age-restrict social media at a time of growing concern about youth mental health and data collection.From late 2025, platforms including Meta’s Instagram, Elon Musk’s X, TikTok and Snapchat must show Australians they are taking reasonable steps to keep out users under 16 or face fines. Google’s YouTube, a classroom staple, is exempt. But the legislation does not specify what those reasonable steps must be. That is down to the trial, overseen by the Age Check Certification Scheme, a British consulting firm, which expects about 12 participating tech firms and must give recommendations by mid-2025.Options include age estimation where a user’s video selfie is biometrically analysed then deleted; age verification where a user uploads identifying documents to a third-party provider which sends an anonymous confirmation “token” to the platform; and age inference where a user’s e-mail address is cross-checked with other accounts.“The approach the Australian government takes could influence how other countries approach online age checks for social media content,” said Julie Dawson, chief policy and regulatory officer at age-verification company Yoti, which does age checks for Meta’s new system of heightened privacy settings for teenage Instagram users.Some European countries and US states have legislated age minimums for social media, but none has rolled out an enforcement regime due to legal challenges based on preserving privacy and free speech.Even lawmakers in Australia’s conservative opposition, whose support was needed to get the centre-left government’s ban through parliament, warned the ban could justify collecting personal information – an echo of a November post from X owner Elon Musk that it “seems like a backdoor way to control access to the Internet by all Australians”.Communications Minister Michelle Rowlands told parliament the ban was “not about government mandating any form of technology or demanding any personal information handed over to social media companies”. A last-minute change to the law stipulates that platforms asking for identifying documents must offer an alternative age-gate.Pressure to block minors from parts of the Internet has been around since pornography and gambling websites overran the early worldwide web. It has taken on a new urgency since a Meta whistleblower leaked internal e-mails in 2021 purportedly showing knowledge its products were harmful to young users. Meta has said the documents were misinterpreted.Rising demand has spurred technological development, but no product yet is fool-proof when it comes to combining accuracy, privacy, security and user-friendliness, said Tony Allen, CEO of the Age Check Certification Scheme, which will test products for Australia on those criteria. How Australia implements the ban is definitely going to be an interesting case study for the rest of the world.

Emphasising that ‘Qatar is the UK’s leading development partner in the Gulf’, the British ambassador, Neerav Patel said several significant pacts will be inked during the upcoming state visit of His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani to the UK on December 3 and 4.“This is a really special moment for the relationship between the UK and Qatar. It is only the third state visit to the UK in Qatar’s history. It will be the first state visit for an Arab leader under King Charles III,” said the ambassador at a recent press conference.“I really think that this is going to be a generational moment, a chance for us to renew the partnership, renew the relationship for another generation. We will be signing several agreements during the visit which comprise of multiple areas,” explained Patel.The British envoy said certain areas of co-operation will be defence and security; economy and energy, global co-operation and people to people relationship, though details will be made available only during the state visit.He remarked: “What we’re trying to do is to touch on every aspect of the relationship. Defence and security is one of the most important pillars of our relationship. In terms of the air force, the UK has got only one joint squadron anywhere in the world since World War II, and that is with Qatar. It is unique, nowhere else on the planet do we have such a relationship.”“What we are now looking to do is to thicken up the relationships in the defence area and also enabling areas such as digitisation, AI and intelligence. What we’re looking to do is to come up with a comprehensive plan so that both countries are ready for the future environment. We hope to push forward co-operation on other areas of security that range from cyber to policing, counter-terrorism, counter-drugs activity, providing security for big public events, including learning from Qatar’s experience of the World Cup,” continued Patel.As for economy and energy, the ambassador said that the UK relies on Qatar’s LNG as part of its energy mix.“At its height, I believe, Qatar provided 25% of UK’s liquid natural gas needs in 2022. What we are keen to do is to keep that going but branch into clean energy as well and to have clean energy partnerships where both countries are investing in new technologies and new startups that will become the unicorns of the future. So the UK’s ambition is to become a clean energy superpower and we would really love for Qatar to be a partner in that,” elaborated the envoy.According to Patel, another area of co-operation is international co-operation. “On any international visit with leaders from one country to another, we will be talking about all of the important situations that are going on at the moment in the world, in particular in the region. I am sure the leaders will be talking about Gaza, about Lebanon, about wider instability, but they will also be talking about the essential role that Qatar is playing on mediation both in the region and more broadly,” he pointed out.He remarked: “We believe along with the government of Qatar that we won’t have a sustainable calm across the region unless we can find a resolution on Gaza. I’m sure that the leaders will talk about the invaluable efforts that Qatar has been making to mediate on Gaza more widely, repatriating Ukrainian children seized by the Russians, its role in finding deals and mediation and progress in countries ranging from Afghanistan to Venezuela.”“The final pillar or area of co-operation is on the people-to-people links, which is really important. The UK is really proud to call itself Qatar’s oldest friend in the western world. Our relationship goes back 160 years and more. The UK is second home for so many countries, particularly London,” added the ambassador.

Horrible endings are better than never-ending horrors, or so the German saying goes. Many in Germany probably felt that way earlier this month, as they watched the collapse of the most unpopular government in recent German history, led by the most unpopular chancellor. The fierce political bickering that ensued was not particularly desirable, but it was better than more of the same.Though the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s “traffic-light” coalition – Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) – was widely anticipated, it took many by surprise. Just hours after Donald Trump won the US presidential election, Scholz sacked his finance minister, the FDP’s Christian Lindner, and set the stage for a snap election, plunging Germany into political chaos.Scholz and Lindner’s disagreement was straightforward. Scholz insisted that a larger budget deficit was essential to enable Germany to deliver aid to Ukraine (especially given Trump’s victory), increase investment in the country’s crumbling infrastructure, and finance more subsidies for industries reeling from high energy costs. But Lindner refused to take on more debt, as the German constitution limits the structural deficit to 0.35% of GDP per year – the equivalent, today, of some €9bn ($9.5bn). While the debt brake is not absolute – larger deficits might be permitted during emergencies like the Covid-19 pandemic – Lindner did not see sufficient justification for overriding it today.It is perhaps fitting that a budget spat brought down Scholz’s coalition, which was united in 2021 precisely by a plan to reallocate unspent funds that had been earmarked for the pandemic response. This would have enabled the three parties to advance their social and climate priorities without increasing the deficit. But last year, the Constitutional Court struck down the plan, effectively blowing a €60bn hole in a budget that was already under strain from declining tax revenues.The government’s reform plans – embodied by a coalition deal entitled “Daring more Progress” – did reflect an understanding of what Germany needed after 16 years of relative stagnation under Angela Merkel’s leadership. But some initiatives were introduced too hastily, and others are still awaiting implementation.Still others were derailed by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, after which Scholz proclaimed that Germany had reached a turning point (Zeitenwende) that demanded an epochal change in its politics and priorities. The competing pressures to make progress on pre-agreed reforms and achieve a fundamental policy reset – combined with budget constraints and ideological differences – ultimately tore the coalition apart.The election, set to take place in February, offers a critical opportunity for Germany to do better. Current polls suggest that Friedrich Merz, the leader of Merkel’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), will become chancellor, leading either to a grand coalition with the SPD or some more complicated three-party coalition. In any case, it would be a centrist government, with the extreme parties of the right and left in opposition.Merz appears likely to show leadership where Scholz did not, and to appoint more experienced and pragmatic cabinet ministers, thereby avoiding the kinds of legislative mishaps that eroded support for the last coalition. But if he is to lead Germany out of the deep structural crisis that it faces – especially in today’s tumultuous geopolitical environment – he will have to focus on four key areas.The first is the debt brake. Though this rule – introduced by the CDU in 2009 under Merkel – helps to keep German public finances stable, it also limits the government’s ability to invest in the future and to respond to emerging crises early and effectively. While Merz has made clear that he does not support abolishing the provision, he might be open to a compromise that balances these competing considerations. Since such a reform would probably involve constitutional changes, which require a two-thirds majority, a broad-based, cross-party consensus would have to be forged.The second priority for Germany’s next government must be structural reform. Action is needed in many areas, including education, infrastructure, public administration, immigration, and the digital and energy transitions – all of which have long suffered from policy neglect or excessive regulation. Not all of the necessary reforms can be pursued simultaneously, even with a more flexible debt brake, so difficult choices – and compromises – will have to be made.Then there is the European Union – the third priority area. Both Germany and the broader EU are stuck in a kind of stasis, and they need each other to escape. The problem is that, although the single market has been in place for decades, leaders across Europe continue to allow national interests to define their economic, financial, and regulatory policies.The results are predictable: European financial markets and corporations lack the scale needed to compete with their American and Chinese counterparts. The next German government must face this weakness head on – guided by recent recommendations from two former Italian prime ministers, Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta – before growing populism in EU member states renders progress impossible.Finally, Germany’s next government must move forcefully to strengthen national security. To this end, it must establish a national security council – something the last government failed to do, owing to political infighting. Moreover, Germany must increase defence spending significantly – well beyond the 2%-of-GDP threshold required by Nato – and make public procurement more efficient and effective. And it must improve co-ordination among European forces. Rather than wait to be called out by Trump, Germany, together with France, must take the lead in making European strategic sovereignty a reality.If Germany remains on its current path – squabbling internally and muddling through – its gradual decline will continue. But with effective political leadership offering both bold action and a steady hand, it can chart a new course toward greater security and prosperity. — Project SyndicatelHelmut K Anheier is Professor of Sociology at the Hertie School in Berlin and Adjunct Professor of Public Policy and Social Welfare at UCLA’s Luskin School of Public Affairs.

As Russia’s war effort fuels economic growth and drives up wages, air travel has been on the rise too, with Russians defying Western sanctions by heading to domestic holiday spots or “friendly” countries where they are still welcome.However, just as soaring government spending on the war in Ukraine is fuelling a consumer spending boom and more and more people chose to spend the extra cash on travel, Russia’s civil aviation sector is struggling to take advantage of booming demand.The reason? Russia just does not have enough planes.While the sanctions fell short of the desired effect of crippling Russia’s economy and starving its war machine, they did cut off the supply of planes and parts, which domestic production could not replace.As a result, fewer new planes could be added to Russia’s fleet to meet rising demand and Moscow was forced to ask neighbouring countries to help run some domestic routes.Russia has touted its economic resilience in the face of sanctions, but difficulty in ending its reliance on Western planes highlights the limits to Moscow’s goal of breaking free from Western influence and having domestic industries pick up the slack.With most of Europe’s airspace closed to Russian carriers, most traffic shifted to domestic routes, data from Russia’s civil aviation watchdog Rosaviatsia shows. International travel has pivoted to countries that have not imposed sanctions on Moscow, such as Turkiye, ex-Soviet countries and the United Arab Emirates, according to data from the FSB security service, which tracks border crossings.Egypt, Thailand and China have also gained in popularity compared with pre-pandemic levels.By contrast, the numbers of passengers flying to Europe have dropped to a few hundred thousand from almost 10mn in 2019, the data showed.Russia’s retail sales, a key gauge of consumer demand, rebounded strongly last year from a 2022 slump and while that growth has softened in recent months, rising incomes continue to drive demand for air travel, cars and consumer goods, including those imported from the West via third countries.“Yesterday these people earned relatively little, now they have not just extra, but beyond extra, income relative to what they had, and many of them have ... used this for a fully-fledged summer holiday,” aviation expert Oleg Panteleev told Reuters.Matching that demand, however, is a challenge.Almost 80% of Russia’s fleet is foreign-made, data from Swiss aviation intelligence provider ch-aviation shows. Airbus and Boeing planes account for 575, or two-thirds, of Russia’s 865-strong fleet.Their pullout was initially hailed as a win for the domestic industry.“The competitors left. Just a few years ago the domestic aviation industry could only dream of this,” Sergei Chemezov, head of industrial conglomerate Rostec, told Reuters in August.Rostec, whose subsidiary United Aircraft Corporation controls almost all of Russia’s major aircraft producers, appears still far from making that dream a reality.In the year before invading Ukraine, Russia added 54 new commercial aircraft to its fleet – 27 from Airbus, three from Boeing and 24 Russian-made Sukhoi Superjets – for airlines including flag carrier Aeroflot, S7, Red Wings, Rossiya, and Ural, ch-aviation data shows.In the nearly three years since, it has added just 11 new planes, all of them Superjets.Production of Russia’s new MS-21 airliner, being made by Rostec, has already been pushed back to 2025-2026 from 2024.Chemezov acknowledged Russia was facing difficulties but said it would definitely make its own passenger planes.The Kommersant daily reported last week that Russian airlines, unable to repair Airbus A320 neo engines, may have to retire some of its Airbus fleet.Rosaviatsia said Russia’s serviceable Airbus A320 neo fleet had got smaller, but it accounted for less than 5% of Russia’s commercial aircraft. Sanctions on Russian aviation have further complicated existing engine issues, Rosaviatsia said.Moscow has spent at least 1.47tn roubles ($13bn) in state subsidies and loans since the invasion on the aviation sector, according to a Reuters analysis, as Russia pursues President Vladimir Putin’s goal of producing more than 1,000 aircraft by 2030.Yet for now, Russia has asked Central Asian countries to help it run some domestic routes, while The Economic Times of India reported that Russia has asked India and China for assistance, too.As Moscow becomes increasingly dependent on Beijing for trade, technology and political support, air travel is the latest link being forged between the two nuclear powers.“China is building up its positions very strongly,” Panteleev said. “Russian tourists are gradually beginning to rediscover China.” – Reuters

Is it all over for Basel 3.1 (or what is known in the US as the “Basel Endgame”)? Should we kiss goodbye the Basel Committee and the very idea of global banking-supervision accords that establish minimum capital requirements? Many informed people think so. The committee’s recommendations have long been assailed from all sides, especially the western shores of the Atlantic.In 2023, emboldened – or perhaps stung – by the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and a few other mid-size institutions, the US Federal Reserve proposed a tough interpretation that would have increased capital requirements for American banks by 19%, on average. But pushback from the financial industry, led by Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, was fierce, with Super Bowl halftime commercials warning Americans that small firms and middle-class households would pay the price for such a policy.So the Fed backed off, reconsidered its position, and devised new proposals that would have halved the impact of its original recommendations. But these watered-down measures are also in doubt. Even before Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House had raised the possibility of changes in personnel, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp was signalling that it would not back them.Meanwhile, those who oppose any foreign entanglements that could tie up the US financial system have been emboldened. Steve Forbes, of the eponymous magazine, argues that, “One of the first tasks of the Trump Treasury Department should be to abandon the Basel regime of banking regulations.” And Gene Ludwig, a former comptroller of the currency, has suggested that “the Basel endgame rule could be completely dead.”Nor is the climate for rule-makers much more favourable in Europe. French President Emmanuel Macron has told the European Commission that, faced with this American backsliding, it needs to rethink its Basel 3.1 implementation plans: “[the EU] cannot be the only economic area in the world that applies [it].” With European banks losing market share in Europe to the Americans, the issue has become politically sensitive.Even the Bank of England is under pressure. It played a key role in launching the Basel Committee back in the 1980s, and it normally sticks closely to the agreements reached there. But Britain’s new Chancellor of the Exchequer has argued that regulators should be doing more to promote competitiveness and growth. Further increases in bank capital, especially for lending to small businesses, are hard to reconcile with that objective.The Basel Committee’s new chair, Erik Thedéen of the Swedish central bank, has his work cut out for him. Can he keep the show on the road? One problem is that there is very little international agreement on the facts. You would think that the simple question of whether US banks will be as well capitalized as EU banks after the implementation of Basel 3.1 would have a straightforward answer. But that is far from the case.US banks think that the Fed’s proposals would put them at a competitive disadvantage, whereas Macron thinks the opposite. European banks regularly point to a 2023 Oliver Wyman report showing that big EU banks have a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio (the main comparable measure of bank capitalisation) more than three percentage points above that of their US counterparts.But the plot has thickened. The Financial Times reports that the European Central Bank’s own research comes to the opposite conclusion: “capital requirements for big EU lenders would rise by a double-digit percentage if they had the same rule as their large Wall Street rivals.” Unfortunately for those who seek the truth, the ECB is split on whether to publish its paper, which remains under wraps in Frankfurt. The political awkwardness of the situation is obvious.It is surprising for a process that began just after the global financial crisis to have reached an impasse at such a late stage. The core provisions of Basel III were first published in November 2010, after a very rapid work programme, and the latest iteration was presented as a mere “tidying up” exercise. But it is proving more contentious than the main accord.Part of the problem is that the political impetus for reform has waned. The driving force was the G20, which forced regulators to move fast and break things after the crisis. But we heard very little about Basel at the group’s summit in Brazil this month. Apparently, the financial crisis is being consigned to history.This is unfortunate, and regulators will undoubtedly say that reports of Basel’s death have been much exaggerated. But unless the patient receives urgent attention, he may well expire. Sooner or later, countries that have already implemented the new rules – such as Australia and Singapore – will begin to cry foul, whereupon the process could unravel entirely.In any case, the US, the European Union, and the United Kingdom will be obliged to call a time-out over the northern winter. The US will have a new Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, and the EU a new commissioner for financial markets, Maria Luís Albuquerque. Both will need to get settled in. But they also will need to get together soon. The stakes are high, and the situation resembles Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot more than his Endgame. Godot had better turn up soon. – Project SyndicateHoward Davies, a former deputy governor of the Bank of England, is Chairman of NatWest Group.

I am Roza, writing today with profound gratitude and pride after being honoured by the Katara – the Cultural Village administration in Qatar for my participation in the Katara Arts Festival. This event marked a pivotal moment in my artistic and cultural journey, not only because it allowed me to share my educational and ethical project, Ana Fekra (I am an Idea), but also because it provided a platform for showcasing my artwork, The Duality of Identity and Modernity, for the very first time.Ana Fekra is a reflection of my humanistic and educational message — a project that harmonises timeless ethical values with a contemporary vision rooted in our heritage and identity. What began as a small idea has grown into a passion, driving me to build a strong bridge that connects generations to their identity while embedding the essence of authenticity and modernity.During the symposium in which I was honoured to participate at the festival, I had the opportunity to discuss the pioneering spirit of this project that I deeply believe will make a difference. My participation was a chance to tell the world that art is not merely about painting or words; it is a vision that ties the past to the present, transforming challenges into pathways for creativity.My artwork, The Duality of Identity and Modernity, embodies this belief. It is a visual expression of the balance I strive for — preserving our cultural identity while embracing the possibilities of modernity. Presenting this piece at a festival that gathers elite artists from around the globe was a significant step for me, especially as I decided to dedicate this artwork to Prof Khalid al-Sulaiti, the General Manager of Katara – the Cultural Village, as a token of my immense gratitude and appreciation for his continued support and his embrace of art and culture.This event has added tremendous value to my professional and national journey. It has given me a powerful push to continue striving and achieving more milestones, whether through Ana Fekra or my artistic endeavours. Every detail of this festival has been an inspiration, from meeting global artists to the deep sense of recognition I felt.I extend my heartfelt thanks to the Katara – the Cultural Village administration and everyone who contributed to this success. My deepest gratitude goes to Prof al-Sulaiti for his unwavering support and belief in the importance of art and culture in building a cohesive society. I promise myself, and everyone who believes in my message, that I will continue this journey with passion and determination, creating more artworks and projects that embody our identity, history, and aspirations.This event is not the end, but rather a new beginning for more creativity and achievement.

Britain will aim to convince Donald Trump its services-dominated trade with the US should escape the worst of tariffs even as it cautiously repairs ties with the European Union and nurtures commercial links with China.Trump has floated blanket tariffs of 10-20% on virtually all imports when he returns to the White House in January and this week pledged big tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China too.For Britain’s trade-sensitive economy, such threats to global commerce could stymie the dash for higher growth that is a top priority of the Labour government elected in July.After Brexit complicated ties with the European Union — by far its largest trade partner — Britain believes it has a strong case to preserve and build on a US partnership which already accounts for around a fifth of total UK trade.While Trump’s anger is targeted at the countries with whom the US runs a trade deficit, differing methodologies of their respective statistics agencies mean that Britain and the US both report trade surpluses with the other.Moreover, while Trump tariffs are widely seen as focusing on imported manufactured items — the most high-profile example being German luxury cars — over two-thirds of UK exports to the US come from services rather than goods.“I don’t think the criticisms I’ve seen of some European countries in that presidential campaign do apply to us,” Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told lawmakers this week, adding that Britain would not shy away from making the case for free trade to the Trump administration.“We should be always willing to be advocates for open, transparent, free trading relationships around the world.” The goal is to work with Trump while also fixing some barriers to trade with the EU, although one Trump adviser has suggested Britain may have to choose between the two.While Britain has ruled out rejoining the EU’s single market or customs union, which it left after Brexit, it wants a “reset” in EU ties, and hopes to agree a new veterinary agreement to reduce border checks.Liam Byrne, chair of the business and trade committee which Reynolds was speaking at, said the government was right to try “to optimise a grand bargain” and balance ties with the US, Europe and China.He said that pursuing closeness with the EU might make a fully fledged Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the US less likely, but that an FTA may be a “mirage” compared to less ambitious, sectoral pacts that could be struck to avoid tariffs that were in “nobody’s interest”.“I think closer ties with the EU gives us more upside faster and I don’t think it completely ends decent cooperation on trade with the US,” Byrne, a Labour lawmaker, told Reuters ahead of the session.More than 40% of British exports are to the EU, compared to 22% that go to the US, latest government figures show.Both London and Brussels have hailed a constructive new start under the Labour government while acknowledging talks will be tough, with the EU wanting easier youth mobility to be on the table.Reynolds highlighted comparable agricultural standards between the EU and the UK as a reason why an agreement to reduce checks on farm and fish products was achievable.By contrast, he said that lawmakers would “recognise the challenges” of a free trade agreement with the US. Alluding to disagreements over agricultural standards that have seen previous talks stall, Reynolds said “there would be a pretty profound conversation to have”.As well as closer EU ties, Britain is indicating an increased openness to working with China, even as Trump threatens to impose tariffs. — Reuters

While the world’s attention remains focused on Ukraine’s heroic stand against Russian aggression, a quieter revolution is reshaping Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies.CEE countries have emerged as vibrant innovation hubs in recent years, generating a wave of new tech unicorns. Romania’s UiPath, for example, has become an automation leader, enhancing workplace efficiency by freeing workers from repetitive tasks. Poland’s Docplanner is revolutionising healthcare access by leveraging artificial intelligence to connect millions of patients with doctors. And while Croatia’s Infobip, with its AI-enhanced communication platform, facilitates seamless interactions between businesses, governments, and citizens, Bulgaria’s Payhawk is transforming corporate finance by streamlining expense management.Together, these companies show that AI can be a powerful force for good, driving rapid advances in healthcare and finance and increasing workplace productivity. The next major tech innovation could well come from a startup incubator in Warsaw, a university lab in Bucharest, or a co-working space in Kyiv – probably developed at a fraction of Western costs.Some might say that this wave of innovation is building despite the numerous challenges facing the region; others would say it is fuelled by them. As they strive to maintain their competitive edge in traditional sectors like auto manufacturing, CEE economies are also grappling with post-pandemic financial pressures, exacerbated by the European Union’s revised budget rules. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has introduced a new set of threats, from relentless Russian cyberattacks targeting supply chains and vital infrastructure to AI-assisted disinformation campaigns.AI has the potential to help CEE countries tackle these complex challenges, generating tremendous value across traditional public sectors such as healthcare and education while enabling governments to counter foreign interference and safeguard critical energy networks.Encouragingly, CEE countries have a strong foundation upon which to build a thriving tech sector, with a critical mass of engineers and STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) graduates. Company valuations in the region increased more than sevenfold between 2017 and 2022. Moreover, the share of investment from outside the EU rose from 9% in 2022 to 21% in 2023, highlighting these economies’ growing global appeal.To be sure, significant challenges remain. Notably, recent research shows that CEE economies still lag behind their Western European counterparts in both infrastructure and investment. With a population of more than 150mn and a combined GDP of nearly €2.5tn ($2.7tn), the region has vast potential. Yet, total private-equity investment fell by 40% in 2023, to €1.7bn. Consequently, launching a startup in the region can feel like trying to build a spaceship with spare parts from a bicycle shop.The rise of populist parties poses another serious challenge, threatening to undermine responsible macroeconomic management and deter partners and investors. Instead of addressing fiscal pressures through spending cuts, many CEE governments have opted to raise corporate and value-added taxes, prioritising short-term relief over long-term economic stability.A more forward-looking strategy would embrace AI’s transformative potential to drive economic growth and innovation across the region. To unlock this potential, CEE countries should take three key steps.First, policymakers should focus on expanding STEM education and retaining top talent. The region’s main obstacle to becoming the next Silicon Valley is a shortage of skilled professionals. While hundreds of promising biotech, finance, and robotics startups have emerged in recent years, they cannot grow – let alone become unicorns – without a robust talent pool. And, although education is a public good, the sluggish pace of reform in CEE countries means that the private sector must also focus on human-capital development.Second, deeper European integration could fuel innovation by facilitating the cross-border exchange of ideas, talent, and capital. With this in mind, the European Commission recently unveiled its AI Factories initiative, offering developers access to the computing power, data, and other resources needed to train advanced AI models. Several CEE countries have also started exploring structured technological partnerships with other European governments to promote shared strategic priorities.Lastly, governments must boost inward foreign investment. Despite the geopolitical turmoil of the past two years and subsequent decline in private-equity inflows, the region has demonstrated remarkable resilience.While CEE economies are poised to play a pivotal role in Ukraine’s reconstruction, they must first address infrastructure gaps, funding shortfalls, and regulatory uncertainty that could deter potential investors. Enhancing the region’s appeal is essential not only for the tech sector but also for advancing digital infrastructure projects, including 5G networks, data centres, and quantum computing facilities.As CEE economies confront these challenges, it has become abundantly clear that they must act swiftly to harness AI’s potential, or risk watching a generation of talent seek better opportunities elsewhere. — Project SyndicateSoňa Muzikárová, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a Mason Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, is a former economist at the European Central Bank, a former diplomat at the OECD, and a former senior adviser to the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Slovak Republic.

Following Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democratic congresswoman from New York, publicly appealed to those who had voted for both her and Trump. She wanted to know what motivated such an apparently inconsistent choice, and the predominant answer she heard was that she and Trump seemed more sincere, whereas Vice-President Kamala Harris came off as too calculating.It was a fruitful exercise, and we can ask the same of leftists who support both the Palestinians and Russia. After all, the latter has been bombing Ukrainian cities until they resemble Gaza, and just as the right-wing parties in Israel’s government want to create a Greater Israel, the Kremlin hopes to create a Greater Russia. Russia’s eliminationist project should thus remain top of mind whenever the developments on the ground are assessed. Immediately after the recent decision by US President Joe Biden’s administration to allow Ukraine to launch US-furnished ATACMS missiles (with a range of up to 190 miles) into Russia, the Kremlin warned that any use of Western arms against the Russian Federation could trigger a nuclear response under its new nuclear doctrine. Nonetheless, the Ukrainians countered by firing six ATACMS missiles at a military facility in the Bryansk region (adjacent to the Ukrainian border) the next day.Although Russia claims that the damage was negligible – five of the missiles were shot down, and there were no casualties – following the letter of its new nuclear doctrine would mean that it is now at war with the United States and has the right to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. With some of those around Trump already accusing Joe Biden of taking a dangerous step toward a new world war, is it fair to say that Ukraine went too far? Has it disturbed the fragile balance that kept the conflict limited?Before jumping to this conclusion, one must remember that the US has permitted Ukraine to target locations primarily in Kursk, the border region from which Russia has been launching many of its attacks against Ukrainian positions. As Josep Borrell, the (outgoing) EU foreign-policy chief put it: “Ukraine should be able to use the arms we provided to them not only to stop the arrow, but also to be able to hit the archers.”Moreover, recall that Russia had escalated its own campaign against Ukraine mere days earlier, blanketing the entire country with drone and missile attacks against civilian energy infrastructure just before the onset of winter. While six Ukrainian missiles caused panic all around the world, Russia’s systematic destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure has been normalised – much like Israel’s razing of northern Gaza.The situation is as obscene as it is absurd. Russia, having launched a war of conquest against its peaceful neighbour, now wants to keep its own territory out of the war, and it accuses Ukraine, the victim, of “expanding” the conflict. If Russia is serious about its new nuclear doctrine, let us offer an equally serious counter-doctrine: If an independent country is attacked with non-nuclear forces by a nuclear superpower, its allies have the right – even the duty – to provide it with nuclear weapons so that it has a chance of deterring an attack.It is often said that Putin wants a return to the Soviet Union and Stalinism; but this is not right. Rather, his regime is sustained by a vision of the pre-1917 imperial era, when czarist Russia’s zone of influence encompassed not only Poland but also Finland. Time will tell if Putin’s neo-Czarism is more than a pipe dream. In the emerging multipolar world, the rise of strong empires, each with its own zone of influence, is quite conceivable. As Putin told the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2022, “sovereignty cannot be segmented or fragmented in the twenty-first century.” Upholding political sovereignty and national identity is essential, he said, but so is strengthening everything that “determines our country’s economic, financial, professional, and technological independence.” Clearly, only a new imperial Russia, not Ukraine or Belarus or Finland, will be able to enjoy the full benefits of sovereignty.Making matters worse, on the same day that President Vladimir Putin announced the new Russian nuclear doctrine, the BBC reported that, “air pollution in India’s capital Delhi has soared to extremely severe levels, choking residents and engulfing the city in thick smog,” disrupting air transport, forcing schools to close, and halting construction. “And experts warn that the situation could get worse in Delhi in the coming days.”While Russia indulges in imperial aggression and rattles its nuclear sabre, hundreds of millions of people are finding it harder to breathe. The media trumpet the use of Western weapons against Russia as front-page “breaking news,” and blinkered leftists regard Ukraine’s “excessive” defence as a dangerous escalation. A threat to the world’s very survival, however, barely merits mention.

We all see how the rise of misinformation — whether intentional or accidental — has become a crisis we can no longer ignore. It threatens our relationships, our trust in institutions, and, as you can see, the very stability of our global society. And there’s only one single tool in our diplomatic toolkit that can fight fire with fire, that can truly match the speed and scale of the problem: digital diplomacy.Global crises fuelled by misinformation have been erupting with alarming frequency, from election meddling to pandemic conspiracies and these are not isolated incidents anymore. Who could forget the disinformation campaigns that swirled around the US presidential elections? Or the barrage of false health information that worsened the global pandemic response? These aren’t just minor glitches in our systems; they are full-scale attacks on the very trust that holds societies together.Think about it: when misinformation goes unchecked, it spreads like wildfire, igniting tensions, dismantling trust, and eroding the foundation of international co-operation. When nations act on false premises, the stakes are high — think of the disastrous consequences of military escalation, trade disputes, or even the collapse of international co-operation on issues like climate change or public health. In this information age, a single tweet or viral post can be more powerful than the speeches of 1,000 seasoned diplomats. If misinformation is a poison, then digital diplomacy is the antidote.This is not to say that traditional diplomacy no longer has a place. Far from it. It is vital as ever, especially in face-to-face negotiations where relationships are built and trust is cultivated. Considering the magnitude of misinformation, I only think that the traditional methods are no longer enough to tackle the scale of misinformation we face. Governments need to harness the power of social media, data analytics, and digital communications platforms to stay ahead of the curve.Digital diplomacy is the global megaphone we need. It has the power to amplify authentic voices, truthful narratives, and engage the global population in ways that traditional diplomacy never could. Imagine this: world leaders, public officials, and diplomats working in concert, responding to misinformation not with a slow, bureaucratic process, but with agility, transparency, and strategic digital engagement. This is the future of diplomacy!But here’s a sobering thought: In this digital age, the threat is always one click away, but so is the solution. The question is: Will we be proactive or reactive in defending the truth? To protect our societies, our relationships, and the stability of global governance, it’s time to turn the digital space into our most valuable asset. Digital diplomacy is not just an option — it is the most powerful response to the digital age’s biggest challenge. The world needs it now more than ever. Let’s make sure we answer the call. It’s time to make digital diplomacy our first line of defence.• Laura Iancu is an international strategist with over 15 years of experience across diverse industries, including telecommunications, semiconductors, digital marketing, event management, education, and diplomacy, in both the private and public sectors. As the founder of Diplomats.Digital, Laura regularly contributes to publications focused on digital diplomacy, highlighting its crucial role in today’s global landscape.IG handle: https://www.instagram.com/diplomats

Efforts by US antitrust regulators to break up Alphabet by forcing a sale of its Google Chrome browser and other proposals to limit its search dominance are likely to run into legal challenges on grounds the remedies are extreme. After a ruling in August that Google illegally monopolised the search market, US Department of Justice (DoJ) prosecutors argued to a judge last Wednesday that the company must sell Chrome, share data and search results with rivals and possibly sell its Android smartphone software.Alphabet shares closed nearly 5% lower on Thursday. The proposals are part of a landmark case aimed at reshaping how users find information. But a new pro-business administration of President-elect Donald Trump next year could change that effort and legal proceedings could last years, experts said.“It would strike me as an over-ask,” said Kevin Walkush at Jensen Investment Management, which holds Google stock and is sceptical a Chrome divestiture will happen. “You ask for everything possible, not necessarily with an eye towards what would be probable and proportional, and then see what sticks.”The DoJ sought and won a breakup of Microsoft in the early 2000s after alleging it illegally monopolised the web browser market. That ruling was overturned by an appeals court, and Microsoft and the DoJ eventually settled.Walkush expects the Google case to take years to play out as the company appeals. “The wheels of justice do not turn quickly,” he said.Google called the DoJ’s approach “unprecedented government overreach that would harm American consumers, developers, and small businesses,” giving as examples diminished user privacy and less funding for companies such as browser maker Mozilla when they feature Google search.The case could also face challenges from Trump.While Trump’s administration originally filed the search case against Google during his first term, he indicated in October he might not break up the company because it could hurt the American tech industry at a time competition is heating up with China in areas including AI.Representatives for Trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Chrome, the most widely used web browser, is a pillar of Google’s business, providing the company with valuable user data that helps it target ads. The search ads business brought in more than half of Alphabet’s total revenue of $88.3bn in the latest quarter.The value of Chrome, estimated to hold about two-thirds of the global browser market, diminishes sharply as a standalone browser.“The reason why it’s valuable to Google is because Google uses it to enhance its ad business and its search business,” said Megan Gray, former general counsel at search rival DuckDuckGO who has also worked as an attorney at the Federal Trade Commission. “If you don’t have those, then Chrome would just be a data broker.” A forced sale would not address several key issues raised in the DoJ lawsuit, including a search monopoly, critics say. US antitrust enforcers, who are also pursuing Apple and Amazon in other monopoly cases, would have to approve any potential Chrome buyer.“DoJ will face substantial headwinds with this remedy,” because Chrome can run search engines other than Google, said Gus Hurwitz, senior fellow and academic director at University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School. “Courts expect any remedy to have a causal connection to the underlying antitrust concern. Divesting Chrome does absolutely nothing to address this concern.”The DoJ proposed a blanket ban on Google offering incentives to give its search engine preferential treatment. That would include Google’s lucrative partnership with Apple, where it pays the smartphone maker billions of dollars annually to make Google Search the default on Apple smartphones.Evercore analysts called the proposed curbs “draconian.”Given Google Search’s popularity, Apple is likely to continue with Google as the default search engine even without any agreement or payments, Hurwitz said.DoJ’s proposals also include demands for Google to license search results at a nominal cost and share the user data it gathers with competitors for free.DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria said it was harder to ascertain the impact of Google having to open up its search data until the terms are clearer. The Center for Journalism & Liberty said Google licensing its search data would be “transformative” for news publishers because it would help them better understand their audiences. – Reuters

US President-elect Donald Trump has pledged a 60% tariff on imports from China, and to crack down on Chinese components sneaking into the United States through Mexico.But if Trump does want to help US consumers and businesses, there is a better way. Rather than imposing towering tariffs, he should tell China to rip up its massive holdings of US debt. The People’s Bank of China (together with Hong Kong) holds more than $1tn in US Treasuries, and cancelling this debt would partly offset China’s currency manipulation and trade infractions.How did a poor country amass more US debt than the United Kingdom, which has been snapping up US bonds ever since Alexander Hamilton was Treasury Secretary? It did so by generating mountainous trade surpluses.Over the past ten years, the annual US merchandise trade deficit with China has averaged $524bn, while the dollar value of the renminbi has dipped 16%. To prevent its currency from appreciating, China buys US bonds. But remember: a portion of those dollars flowed to China precisely because the Chinese authorities held down the value of the renminbi and made it difficult for US firms to operate in China without having their intellectual property plundered.Although it would be difficult to get economists to agree on the exact statistical relationship between the exchange rate and exports, Trump would not be out of step with mainstream research if he asserted that the renminbi is undervalued by a modest 15%. (The Economist’s “Big Mac” index suggests 37%, which is somewhat higher than estimates from the Coalition for a Prosperous America, a group of US-based businesses).A 15% revaluation could erase perhaps $90bn from the annual $524bn merchandise trade deficit. Trump, his US trade adviser, and his Treasury secretary could request that the Chinese account for their gains by writing off $90bn of their US Treasury holdings. Or, if the new administration prefers a less gentle approach, it could pound the table even harder and claim that the Chinese owe at least six years “back pay,” which would mean tearing up half the bonds.Since Article 4 of the US Constitution’s 14th Amendment insists that the validity of US public debt “shall not be questioned” (though Congress’s establishment of a “debt ceiling” might do that anyway), Trump and his advisers would make clear to China and to global investors that the US is not reneging on its debt. The bonds would remain 100% valid, tradable, and backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. The US would offer China open access to its markets in exchange for certain pledges, namely that China open its own markets, refrain from intellectual piracy, and surrender a small portion of the gains it earned (held in the form of US bonds) through currency manipulation.Were Trump to do this, he could claim that he alone among US presidents is securing reparations for China’s economic tactical strikes on US manufacturing. Second, total US debt is spiralling upward toward 120% of GDP, and interest on the debt now surpasses defence spending. Worse, America is hitting these treacherous levels at a time of relative peace and prosperity, compared to the rest of the world. What happens when times change? Third, a slight decline in the supply of US debt would marginally hold down interest rates, further supporting economic growth. Of course, this proposal would reinforce the Chinese view of Americans as the villains of the piece. But there is little doubt that Xi’s trade advisers are already drawing up offerings – such as to buy US semiconductors, Boeing jets, or every soybean sprout in North Dakota.Moreover, if the Chinese scoff at this proposal, Trump can offer a compelling fallback option. He could tell Xi that instead of totally erasing $90bn of bonds, the bonds could be surrendered to the US Treasury, which would then mail Beijing a $45bn zero-coupon infrastructure bond. This would kick off Trump’s long-awaited drive to rebuild America’s roads, bridges, and airports.If Trump wants to be particularly crafty, he could funnel away $15bn to build his wall on the US southern border. China will cry foul, but who would listen? The American people will have spoken. — Project Syndicate

The greenback has an overarching sway over the financial world with the central role US banks and the currency play in the global economy.The dollar last week posted its longest weekly advance in over a year as Donald Trump’s presidential victory and persistent economic growth pushed traders to boost their bets on further gains.The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed as much as 0.7% last Friday, capping an eight-week rally, the longest since September 2023.The euro fell to a two-year low and the Swiss franc slid to the weakest against the greenback since July.“I would not step in front of this speeding train as long as the US growth exceptionalism story continues,” said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi US Inc.The dollar’s rally has been fuelled by speculation that Trump’s tariffs and tax cuts will fan inflation and add fuel to an economy the Federal Reserve has already been trying to restrain.That has caused traders to dial back expectations for how much the Fed will cut interest rates in the months ahead, driving up bond yields and giving overseas investors an incentive to shift money to the US.“From max bullish on the dollar, we have transitioned to a moderate bullishness on the dollar,” said Alessio de Longis, a senior portfolio manager at Invesco. “We are slowly but steadily taking profits on our dollar overweights and going to a more neutral stance.”Deutsche Bank said that not all of Trump’s policies have been priced in and the dollar has more room to go up.A “maximalist” scenario where Trump enacts his most extreme policies is only 30% priced into financial markets, according to George Saravelos, global head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank.It’s no secret that Trump likes the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve asset, and the accompanying economic and geopolitical power. But he also wants a weak enough foreign-exchange rate to buoy the US manufacturing sector.The duelling forces may become a pillar of his administration’s economic agenda, and as Treasury chief, Scott Bessent would oversee US currency policy.“The reserve currency can go up and down based on the market. I believe that if you have good economic policies, you’re naturally going to have a strong dollar,” Bessent said in interview published in Financial Times in October.At the same time, currency traders are betting that Trump’s policy agenda is about to jumpstart volatility in the $7.5tn-a-day foreign exchange market.After years of benign moves, a gauge of one-year volatility on the euro-dollar exchange rate surged after the election. Hedge funds are scooping up options contracts that pay out if currency swings increase and strategists have dramatically revised their currency forecasts.While it’s not yet clear how quickly Trump will implement policies such as trade tariffs that could cause significant pain to currencies like the euro, investors are pretty certain that unpredictability will be a major feature of his term in office.Investors are underestimating trade war risks under a Trump presidency, according to strategists at Bank of America who predict a 5% slide in emerging-market currencies over the first half of 2025, and a selloff in sovereign debt.Exchange rates do matter because depreciating currencies increase the cost of imported goods, stoking inflation as those expenses feed through to prices in grocery stores and factories.Meanwhile, there’s a higher likelihood that money will pour out of a nation with a weak currency in search of higher yields elsewhere — so-called capital flight — harming domestic investment and growth.

In 2024, Russia shifted its backing from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), signalling a major change in its involvement in Sudan’s ongoing conflict. This shift can be traced to the 2019 coup, which ousted President Omar al-Bashir. The coup had support from Russian officials, including Yevgeny Prigozhin. In the aftermath, Russia provided crucial backing to the RSF, including military assistance and strategic advice, to help stabilise the new regime. Russia and China blocked a UN Security Council resolution condemning the RSF’s deadly crackdown on protesters in June 2019, justifying the violence as necessary for maintaining stability. The connection between Russia and Sudan deepened when Wagner Group mercenaries began aiding the Sudanese government in suppressing large protests in 2018. Wagner operatives trained Sudanese security forces and advised on tactics to undermine opposition, including using disinformation to smear protesters and manipulate media narratives. As protests escalated due to severe economic difficulties and human rights abuses, the government responded with violent repression, with evidence later linking Russian mercenaries and military equipment to the crackdown. In 2023, Sudan descended into a full-scale conflict between the SAF and RSF. Russia’s role as a supposed peace mediator became increasingly problematic as Wagner mercenaries were shown to be directly involved with the RSF. While Russian officials expressed concern over the violence, their continued support for the RSF undermined their credibility as neutral brokers. Russia’s broader influence in Africa, especially in countries like Sudan, Mali, and the Central African Republic, has capitalised on weaknesses in Western policies and sanctions. Moscow has leveraged these opportunities to gain political, diplomatic, and economic leverage from authoritarian regimes, but this often comes at a high human cost. A central element in Russia’s growing influence in Sudan has been the country’s vast gold resources. M-Invest, a company connected to the Wagner Group, secured mining rights in Sudan, allowing Russia to extract valuable gold. Russian mercenaries soon arrived to assist Sudanese forces, and Sudan’s involvement in peace talks for the Central African Republic made it a critical part of Russia’s strategy in the region. The ties between Russia and Sudan deepened in 2017 after the US lifted sanctions on Sudan. Omar al-Bashir travelled to Sochi to meet with President Vladimir Putin, seeking protection from US hostility. In return, Sudan offered Russia military support and access to critical resources, including gold, and allowed the establishment of a Russian naval base in Port Sudan. As Sudan’s political crisis unfolded, Russia’s support for Bashir and his successors contributed to the country’s instability. Following the 2019 coup, Russian mercenaries, linked to Wagner and its affiliate Meroe Gold, became involved in the illicit gold trade. When the US imposed sanctions on Meroe Gold, Sudanese officials created a new front company, Al-Solag, to continue these operations covertly. Despite efforts to curb this trade, Sudan’s military government, after staging a coup in 2021, disbanded the anti-corruption committee that had uncovered these illicit activities, silencing opposition to the gold smuggling operations. With the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Sudan’s gold became crucial for Russia as a means to bypass international sanctions and fund its war effort. Sudan further aligned with Russia, abstaining from UN votes condemning Moscow’s actions in Ukraine and even granting approval for a Russian naval base on its shores. Despite public concerns about the violence in Sudan, Russia’s continued support for the military regime and its backing of the RSF exacerbated the crisis, leading to even greater suffering for the Sudanese people. Russia’s growing influence in Africa is part of a broader strategy that exploits the weaknesses of Western interventions and sanctions. Countries like Sudan, Mali, and the Central African Republic, where Russia has offered political and military support to authoritarian governments, have become crucial partners for Moscow. However, this relationship comes at a heavy humanitarian cost. Russia’s support for oppressive regimes only deepens the violence, corruption, and human rights abuses in these countries. While Moscow positions itself as a counterbalance to Western influence, its actions reveal a stark contradiction — fostering authoritarian rule while criticising foreign interference. The citizens of these countries bear the greatest burden, enduring the consequences of Russia’s exploitative policies. [email protected]

The arts represent an immense world where culture, heritage, and identity flourish. They allow us to preserve the stories, traditions, and values that define our cultures, generations, and civilisations. Our Arab and Islamic heritage is rich in the arts, and cultural narratives have been passed down through generations, fostering creative expression within our youth. And in education, nurturing this creativity is our collective responsibility.Within Qatar Foundation (QF)’s Pre-University Education (PUE), this responsibility takes centre stage as we provide our students with platforms to explore, express, and celebrate their creativity, all while grounding them in Arab culture and heritage. We’ve seen our students on stage at the PUE Theater, showcase their work in the Multaqa (Education City Student Center) exhibition halls, and engage in artistic pursuits at QF’s Recreation Center. The biggest platform yet, Al Ghorrah for Literature and Arts, is the ideal space to showcase our students’ talent to the wider community.Al Ghorrah is dedicated to exploring the depth, beauty, and impact of Arab-Islamic cultural heritage. It is not just a platform for showcasing arts; it has become a regional centre for cultural exchange, offering students and artists alike the opportunity to connect with their roots. The importance of participating in events like Al Ghorrah is invaluable – it allows our students to preserve and present the diverse narratives of the Arab world, while also building bridges between cultures.Al Ghorrah serves as a vibrant cultural stage where both grassroots artists and young performers can showcase their talent, expand their audience, and grow in an environment that fosters a deep appreciation for the arts. For students in QF schools, participating in such events nurtures a greater appreciation for the heritage that unites us, while opening new avenues for creative growth. Al Ghorrah is the ideal space for our students to explore their Arab and Islamic identity, all while remaining globally minded and embracing the interconnected world around them.Beyond cultural preservation, engaging in the arts and literature plays a crucial role in the holistic development of young people. In a world that increasingly values soft skills, enrichment programmes offer an unparalleled opportunity to enhance creativity, communication, collaboration, and teamwork. Whether through theatre performances, literary workshops, or art exhibitions, these experiences enhance students’ critical thinking and innovation capacities, preparing them to navigate a world where such skills are increasingly valued.At QF, we recognise that the arts play a key role in fostering a sense of belonging and connection. As students engage in artistic endeavours, they deepen their understanding of their cultural identity while learning to appreciate diverse perspectives. Events such as our Celebration of Learning, where students present their artistic and literary talents, emphasise the importance of building cultural bridges—both within the region and globally.As QF continues to support young people in their creative journeys, we reaffirm our commitment to preserving our cultural legacy while equipping our students with the tools to be future innovators, storytellers, and leaders.QF’s Al Ghorrah for Literature and Arts will take place from 28 November to 2 December in Education City. Tickets are available now at educationcity.qa/al-ghorrah where you can also find more information about Al Ghorrah.Qatar Foundation – Unlocking Human PotentialQatar Foundation for Education, Science and Community Development (QF) is a non-profit organisation that supports Qatar on its journey to becoming a diversified and sustainable economy. QF strives to serve the people of Qatar and beyond by providing specialised programmes across its innovation-focused ecosystem of education, research and development, and community development.QF was founded in 1995 by His Highness Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, the Father Amir, and Her Highness Sheikha Moza bint Nasser, who shared the vision to provide Qatar with quality education. Today, QF’s world-class education system offers lifelong learning opportunities to community members as young as six months through to doctoral level, enabling graduates to thrive in a global environment and contribute to the nation’s development.QF is also creating a multidisciplinary innovation hub in Qatar, where homegrown researchers are working to address local and global challenges. By promoting a culture of lifelong learning and fostering social engagement through programs that embody Qatari culture, QF is committed to empowering the local community and contributing to a better world for all.

The United States has layers of sensors that can spot, track and identify ballistic missile launches such as the Russian IRBM fired at Ukraine last Thursday — a Cold War system that has been refined over decades into an unblinking global network.Six Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman satellites, known as SBIRS, for space-based infrared system, sit in geostationary orbit around earth hunting for launch signatures, according to the US Space Force, which operates them.They — and a network of smaller satellites in lower orbits — use a variety of sensors to detect the firing of a ballistic missile anywhere on the planet within seconds, from small, unsophisticated weapons such as Scuds all the way up to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), said William Alberque, a visiting fellow at the Henry L Stimson Center.“The things that you can do with video, plus IR, plus synthetic aperture radars, plus ground-based radars...all of these things knit together,” Alberque said. “Processing all this data at very high speed means we have the ability to know more about what is launched than ever before.”Rocket motors, for instance, produce different exhaust gases of varying temperatures based on their fuel and other design factors. These “signatures” can quickly identify a missile.Ground-based sensors include massive solid-state early warning radars in the United States, Canada and Britain. Together with satellites, the system can determine missile type, launch angle, azimuth, apogee, velocity, size and landing point, among other things.Besides Space Force, many other US government organisations are involved, including the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, US Strategic Command and the Missile Defense Agency. Regional military commands may be involved as well.Some launch notifications can be automated, such as smaller, short-range weapons that don’t pose any threat to the US or its allies. More serious alerts for longer-range weapons or a direct threat require human analysis and decision-making.In the case of Russia’s strike on Ukraine near the city of Dnipro, there was no concern about a nuclear attack because there were no signs of warheads being moved, other forces being prepared, or the involvement of Russia’s 12th Chief Directorate of the Ministry of Defence, which controls its nuclear weapons, Alberque said.“There would be a huge signature for potential use,” he said, referring to nuclear weapons.Early warning systems as a concept originated during the 1950s, at first to spot bomber formations and later expanded to detect missiles. The first systems used enormous ground-based radars to scan for missiles rising over the horizon, and were linked to defensive systems that often included nuclear-tipped interceptors.Space Force is in the midst of a nearly $15bn program for more advanced early warning satellites, dubbed Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared. The system will include geostationary satellites, the first of which is set for delivery in 2025, and polar-orbiting satellites scheduled for launch in 2028. — Reuters

Permission from Washington for Ukraine to strike Russian territory with American-supplied long-range missiles may have come too late and hedged with too many restrictions to slow Moscow’s advance, experts warn.US President Joe Biden did not grant Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for deep strike capability until two months before he hands the keys to the White House to Ukraine aid sceptic Donald Trump. The shift comes as Russian forces press their advance through eastern Ukraine, claiming on Monday they had captured a new village south of Pokrovsk — a crucial logistics hub for the defenders.Moscow’s troops took a further 60 square kilometres (23 square miles) over the weekend, according to an AFP analysis based on data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).That brought the figure for November so far to 458 square kilometres — on track to beat October’s total of 610, a record since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.“Putin hasn’t reached the borders of the Donbas. So long as he isn’t there yet, he’ll keep pushing,” a senior French military source told AFP.“If you take a cool-headed look at the balance of forces, the advantage is with the Russian side,” the source added.“News from eastern Ukraine continues to be grim,” agreed Mick Ryan, a former Australian army general.“While no major Russian operational breakthrough is expected, the Russians have been able to sustain their pressure on the Ukrainians for about a year now and it is telling”.Deep strikes into Russian territory with US-supplied ATACMS missiles could in theory disrupt or even push back Moscow’s advance.But “these missiles have already been in use for at least a year and a half” in Crimea and the Donbas, Moscow-based military analyst Alexander Khramchikhin pointed out.“You can’t launch missiles directly from the front line, because then the launchers won’t last long,” he added.He suggested the US had delivered a “very limited” number of missiles and launchers to Kyiv, although no reliable estimates are available of the true figures.In any case, the Russians “long ago moved their most critical resources out of ATACAMS’ range”, said Stephen Biddle, an international relations professor at New York’s Columbia University.“I don’t think it’s going to be decisive for the direction of the war” that Ukraine now has permission to hit Russian territory with them, he added. ATACMS missiles can carry a payload of a single charge or cluster munitions that spread multiple small explosives over a large area, analysts at British private intelligence firm Janes told AFP. Ukraine could use them against “deep targets such as logistics hubs that would slow resupply, or command and control nodes,” they added — although given the time Russia has had to prepare, “this might not be as great an influence as initially expected” on the front line. Just like Western deliveries of major equipment such as heavy tanks or fighter aircraft, Kyiv has had to push relentlessly for many months to secure Washington’s green light.No individual weapons system alone will be enough to turn the conflict in one side’s favour. Fast-moving, highly manoeuvrable ATACMS missiles are “difficult targets to intercept” but “the Russian S-400 air defence system offers an ability to counter tactical ballistic missiles,” the Janes’ analysts noted. Several experts suggested that rather than handing Kyiv a decisive weapon, Biden’s decision is aimed at influencing both domestic and international policy towards Ukraine — which faces being forced into talks on unfavourable terms as support from the West flags. Within the US, Trump will take over the presidency in two months and could reverse Biden’s move.“The administration wants to push all of the aid that has currently been authorised by the Congress into Ukraine, before January 20th,” Biddle said. After then, any commitment from Biden “doesn’t constrain the Trump administration in any way”.On the global stage, the missile authorisation marks a counter-move to the deployment of North Korean reinforcements to Russia’s front line. Biden’s team “wants Putin and...the North Koreans to understand that there are costs to escalation,” Biddle said.“I worry that the administration’s emphasis on the missile issue has been too much on ‘sending a message’ to China and North Korea and not on delivering a consequential upgrade to Ukraine’s strike capability,” said Ivan Klyszcz of the Estonia-based International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS).“Will Washington allow Kyiv to aim for targets inside Russia that are not connected to north Korea?... This point remains ambiguous to me,” he added.“Some have argued that the authorisation could be a bargaining chip in negotiations” between Russia and the US, Klyszcz noted — although “Trump remains as unpredictable as usual”.

In his first global meetings since Donald Trump was re-elected to lead the US, Chinese President Xi Jinping went on a diplomatic offensive, hedging against expected new tariffs and preparing to exploit potential future rifts between Washington and its allies.At meeting after meeting, from Apec in Peru to G20 in Brazil over the last week, Xi sought to draw a contrast with Trump’s “America First” message, presenting himself as a predictable defender of the multilateral global trade order.Summit organisers, diplomats and negotiators also describe a noticeable shift from previous summits in a more constructive posture by Chinese diplomats, who were less focused on their narrow interests and more involved in building a broader consensus.The outreach is urgent for Beijing. While better prepared for another Trump White House — with many tech companies far less reliant on US imports — China is also more vulnerable after its economy was hit by a huge property crisis.Much of China’s attention has focused on the Global South, with state news agency Xinhua praising the G20 for including the African Union as one of the members. The voice of the Global South needed to be “not merely heard but also translated into tangible influence,” Xinhua said.During his G20 speech last Monday, Xi reiterated China’s position on “unilaterally opening our doors wider to the least developed countries,” touting China’s move to give all such countries “zero-tariff treatment for 100 percent tariff lines.”By making such overtures, China wants to expand its leading position in parts of the developing world where the US has long lagged due to its inability to match the billion-dollar investments that China’s state-led economy has marshalled.“To position China as a defender of globalisation and a critic of protectionism, this calculated messaging comes at a time when many countries in the Global South fear the potential return of indiscriminate trade and tariff policies from the US, particularly under Trump’s influence,” said Sunny Cheung, associate fellow for China Studies at Jamestown Foundation, a think tank based in Washington, DC.“Xi’s remarks aim to present China as a more stable and sensible and most importantly a reciprocal partner in contrast to perceived US unpredictability.”Trump has pledged to impose tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60%, and a Reuters poll of economists found they expected the US would impose tariffs of nearly 40%, potentially slicing growth in the world’s second-biggest economy by up to 1 percentage point.Former Chinese diplomats privately acknowledge that developing countries won’t make up for that loss, but Xi has been betting heavily on the expansion of Brics and mending fences with Asian neighbours, from India to Japan to Australia.European countries, also threatened by Trump with tariffs, sought to strike a conciliatory tone with Xi at the latest round of meetings.German chancellor Olaf Scholz said Berlin would work for a mediated solution to an EU-China dispute over Chinese electric vehicles as fast as possible during his meeting Xi.Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer struck an upbeat tone in the first meeting between the countries’ two leaders since 2018, saying he would like to engage with Beijing on areas such as trade, the economy and climate, and have broader engagement on science, technology, health and education.Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar, said European allies of the US would not “embrace” China if Trump’s protectionist policies were aimed at them “but there would be more co-operation”.Behind the scenes, diplomats said they also noted a change in China’s behaviour at these multinational gatherings, with Beijing officials getting involved in a wider set of issues.“China traditionally stayed much more discreet and defended only its most essential interests,” according to a Brazilian diplomat.“They seem to be realising today that more engagement is required of them. It’s not enough to build economic power, diplomacy is important for their own interests and the position they want to have in the world,” he added.To be sure, some analysts say the Chinese outreach belies tensions between Beijing and other countries that were not present when Trump first took office, making his return unlikely to bring about a total reordering of the geopolitical landscape.Western countries have long accused China of unfair trade practices, saying its state support for manufacturers, coupled with depressed domestic demand, is pushing excessive Chinese supply onto global markets.China’s outreach could also be a hard sell in its immediate neighbourhood, where its ships have repeatedly clashed with the Philippines and other neighbours over territorial claims in the South China Sea.Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing, was sceptical of the notion that Trump’s return would give China more leverage when dealing with the EU and other US allies, highlighting the proliferation of conflicts over Ukraine, Taiwan, and elsewhere.“China, of course, likes to improve relations with the EU and its major powers, but without much cost,” said Shi.That meant it would not make major concessions on trade, human rights, and territorial disputes “with or without Trump, which in turn makes major and lasting rapprochement impossible,” he added.Shi also said that China’s ability to invest and take advantage of costly Global South infrastructure projects was diminished due to its sputtering economy. And even among these like-minded countries there is underlying unease about China’s growing clout, other experts say, pointing as an example to Brazil’s move to not join Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative.“Brazil has some concerns about the relationship with China on who is the dominant partner and a desire to not be a satellite and have a more equal, balanced trade relationship with more value added on the Brazilian side,” said Robert Evan Ellis, a professor at the US Army War College. — ReutersPOINTS TO PONDER• China’s diplomatic push: Xi positions China as a stable, multilateral trade ally against Trump’s protectionist policies.• Europe’s conciliatory tone: EU leaders engage with China on trade and climate, balancing co-operation with caution.• Challenges remain: Trade disputes, territorial tensions, and economic strains limit China’s global outreach success.

An abrupt drop in global freshwater levels, as revealed recently by Nasa-German satellites is yet another cause of consternation amid aggravating environmental challenges. An international team of scientists using observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites found evidence that Earth’s total amount of freshwater dropped abruptly starting in May 2014 and has remained low ever since. Reporting in Surveys in Geophysics, the researchers suggested the shift could indicate Earth’s continents have entered a persistently drier phase.From 2015 through 2023, satellite measurements showed that the average amount of freshwater stored on land — that includes liquid surface water like lakes and rivers, plus water in aquifers underground — was 1,200 cubic km lower than the average levels from 2002 through 2014, said Matthew Rodell, one of the study authors and a hydrologist at Nasa’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.During times of drought, along with the modern expansion of irrigated agriculture, farms and cities must rely more heavily on groundwater, which can lead to a cycle of declining underground water supplies: Freshwater supplies become depleted, rain and snow fail to replenish them, and more groundwater is pumped. The reduction in available water puts a strain on farmers and communities, potentially leading to famine, conflicts, poverty, and an increased risk of disease when people turn to contaminated water sources, according to a UN report on water stress published in 2024.The GRACE satellites, operated by the German Aerospace Center, German Research Centre for Geosciences, and Nasa, measure fluctuations in Earth’s gravity on monthly scales that reveal changes in the mass of water on and under the ground. The original GRACE satellites flew from March 2002-October 2017. The successor GRACE–Follow On (GRACE–FO) satellites launched in May 2018.The decline in global freshwater reported in the study began with a massive drought in northern and central Brazil, and was followed shortly by a series of major droughts in Australasia, South America, North America, Europe, and Africa. Warmer ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific from late 2014 into 2016, culminating in one of the most significant El Niño events since 1950, led to shifts in atmospheric jet streams that altered weather and rainfall patterns around the world. However, even after El Niño subsided, global freshwater failed to rebound. In fact, Rodell and team report that 13 of the world’s 30 most intense droughts observed by GRACE occurred since January 2015. Rodell and colleagues suspect that global warming might be contributing to the enduring freshwater depletion.Global warming leads the atmosphere to hold more water vapour, which results in more extreme precipitation, said Nasa Goddard meteorologist Michael Bosilovich. While total annual rain and snowfall levels may not change dramatically, long periods between intense precipitation events allow the soil to dry and become more compact. That decreases the amount of water the ground can absorb when it does rain. “The problem when you have extreme precipitation,” Bosilovich said, “is the water ends up running off,” instead of soaking in and replenishing groundwater stores.Globally, freshwater levels have stayed consistently low since the 2014-2016 El Niño, while more water remains trapped in the atmosphere as water vapour. “Warming temperatures increase both the evaporation of water from the surface to the atmosphere, and the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere, increasing the frequency and intensity of drought conditions,” he noted.While there are reasons to suspect that the abrupt drop in freshwater is largely due to global warming, it can be difficult to definitively link the two, said Susanna Werth, a hydrologist and remote sensing scientist at Virginia Tech, who was not affiliated with the study. “There are uncertainties in climate predictions,” Werth said. “Measurements and models always come with errors.”It remains to be seen whether global freshwater will rebound to pre-2015 values, hold steady, or resume its decline. Considering that the nine warmest years in the modern temperature record coincided with the abrupt freshwater decline, Rodell said, “We don’t think this is a coincidence, and it could be a harbinger of what’s to come.”