Opinion

The Trump administration’s freeze of foreign funding has begun impacting an international effort to hold Russia responsible for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, according to eight sources and a Ukrainian document seen by Reuters, halting dozens of jobs and tens of millions of dollars in aid.Ukraine has opened more than 140,000 war crime cases since Moscow’s February 2022 invasion, which has killed tens of thousands, ravaged vast swathes of the country and left behind mental and physical scars from occupation. Russia consistently denies war crimes have been committed by its forces in the conflict.US-funded international initiatives such as the Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group for Ukraine (ACA) have provided expertise and oversight to Ukrainian authorities. Kyiv has been praised by its Western partners for probing alleged crimes while the war is still raging.At stake are six US-funded projects at the Prosecutor General’s Office (PGO) valued at $89mn, according to a Ukrainian document on the US funding and cuts seen by Reuters.Funding for at least five of those projects has already been frozen, according to five sources directly involved, who cited interruptions in payments. The affected worked on issues ranging from the preservation of evidence from the battlefield to anti-corruption initiatives and reform of Ukraine’s prosecution system.Two of the listed projects were funded by USAID, three by the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement and one directly by the Department of State, the document showed.Of that funding, $47mn was directly allocated to war crimes accountability, the document showed.The impacts on war crimes programmes described by the sources and the document have not previously been reported. Nearly all of the sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.While the programmes do not directly impact Ukraine’s frontline efforts to fend off Russia’s onslaught, supporters say they represent the best chance of extensively documenting reported battlefield atrocities in Europe’s biggest conflict since World War Two, now grinding toward a fourth year.Reuters could not establish whether the affected projects were specifically targeted or victims of the broad sweep of the 90-day freeze on foreign aid Trump announced upon taking office on January 20.The White House, the State Department and Ukraine’s prosecutor did not respond to requests for comment about the impact and purpose of the cuts.Among the impacts of the spending freeze, nearly 40 experts provided through Georgetown’s International Criminal Justice Initiative, ACA’s lead implementing entity, have stopped working, according to two of the sources.ACA and Georgetown’s press office did not respond to a request for comment. Two members of the programme declined to comment.On its website, ACA, which is also funded by the EU and Britain, said it has provided more than 150 experts with “decades of experience” to help Ukrainian prosecutors.One source involved in supplying outside legal experts to Ukraine said: “Some partners have no more money to pay their staff.”Another source said an advisor in the PGO was put on leave and a project to provide support for the victims of conflict-related sexual violence had also been suspended.Ukrainian non-governmental organisations have also been impacted. Representatives from two such groups have told Reuters that their work collecting evidence from victims and documenting damages could be impacted, or had already been frozen.“Our organisation... will continue to exist, but we will look for alternative sources of independent funding and accordingly will continue working in this field, just in a limited way,” said Oleksandr Pavlichenko of the Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union, an alliance of Ukrainian human rights groups.The group has halted the work of its regional offices in Ukraine after the US freeze cut around 75% of its annual budget.The head of another Ukrainian organisation that assists in the collection of war crimes evidence and trains legal professionals said the group also had to partly cease operations.If new funding is not found, jobs will be cut in three months, the source said, requesting anonymity to speak frankly on a sensitive issue that has not yet been resolved.Since the first weeks of Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s international partners have made accountability for alleged Russian crimes a key part of their support for the war-torn country.Yevhen Krapyvin of the Centre for Policy and Legal Reform in Kyiv said US support, particularly from USAID, had been vital earlier in the war.For example, it funded an 800-page handbook for judges adjudicating war-crimes trials for the first time. Foreign experts have proven valuable because of the know-how they brought from previous conflicts, he added.Ukrainian authorities had since gained valuable experience as a result of the infrastructure Kyiv’s foreign partners put in place, he said, downplaying the negative impact of the funding cut on Ukrainian efforts to investigate and prosecute alleged crimes.“Right now, this system is more or less stable, and the experts are there,” Krapyvin said. “Of course, you always want more of them, but this system has been built.”However, a loss of US leadership in the effort could have wide-ranging effects, said a source with direct knowledge of the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue. “Perpetrators are emboldened and we all lose,” the source said.Many NGOs have come to rely on American assistance and people are “in shock,” said a source at a Ukrainian advocacy group with a long history of war-crimes related work, who also asked not to be named to speak about sensitive matters.The freeze has also impacted the planned launch of an American-funded case management system that is part of a broader effort to help modernise Ukraine’s judiciary, said Leonid Sapelnikov, deputy head of Ukraine’s State Judicial Administration, in charge of digitisation.Cleaning up and strengthening the judicial system is central to Kyiv’s bid to join the European Union. “If the (case management) system works, we expect that the effectiveness of the judiciary will increase and it will be possible to hear more cases,” Sapelnikov said, adding that Ukraine would seek alternative sources of funding for the project, without giving details. - Reuters

The global talent shortage is a growing issue that affects many industries and economies. Countries and companies compete to attract skilled professionals, leading to talent migration.Globally, corporations and firms struggle to find skilled professionals, which slows expansion and innovation.Delays in project completion and product development impact revenue and competitiveness.Obviously, this creates workforce imbalances, with some regions suffering more shortages than others.Countries with ageing populations face shrinking workforces. Economic growth slows as businesses struggle to find workers to sustain operations.The scale of the global talent shortage before us is vast – estimated by one report to reach 85mn unfilled jobs by 2030. That, according to a report published by the World Economic Forum (WEF) is equivalent to around $8.5tn in unrealised annual revenues.Ageing populations and demographic shifts are reducing the pool of skilled workers, even as rapid technological advancements outpace workforce skills.Fields such as artificial intelligence (AI), data science and cybersecurity face surging demands but are struggling to find qualified candidates for these roles.While not immune, the GCC economies are turning this challenge into an opportunity, adopting a three-pronged strategy to drive sustainable growth in the Middle East, noted Nada al-Saeed, Executive Director, Bahrain Economic Development Board.The competition for top talent is fierce, requiring the right conditions to attract and nurture it.GCC countries are, therefore, promoting entrepreneurship and innovation by establishing sandboxes, hubs, incubators and accelerators that encourage startups, attract skilled professionals and create ecosystems that cultivate talent.Supporting local entrepreneurs and channelling resources into business growth boosts talent retention and economic development in the region.Matching their leaders’ ambition, Middle East employees are also ready to embrace the future: recent research found that 61% recognise the need to learn new tools and technologies to excel in their jobs.In response, GCC countries are investing in upskilling their citizens, empowering them to help drive the tech revolution through skills development programmes, vocational training and policies that encourage private companies to hire local talent.This focus on developing tomorrow’s workforce is amplified by the area’s demographic advantage: nearly half of the Middle East and North Africa’s population is under 24, representing one of the world’s largest youth populations. This presents an opportunity to build a sustainable workforce and a future-ready talent pool.Efforts to promote gender equality in the GCC are playing an important role in growing the talent pool. Initiatives to provide equal pay, improve opportunities for career advancement and create a better work-life balance are proving crucial.GCC economies are responding to the global tech talent shortage at every level. Employees feel it too: the proportion of workers who believe their country lacks people with specialised skills ranges from 45% in the United Arab Emirates to as much as 75% in Kuwait.However, there is optimism for the future. Respondents were more confident that skills improvement is a priority for their employers than the global average.By creating an ecosystem that encourages entrepreneurship, elevates local talent and empowers women, the GCC is certainly investing in a sustainable, diverse and inclusive digital future.

The devastating effects of global warming are unfolding before our eyes. Uncontrollable fires ravage the Amazon. Rising sea levels threaten to submerge Pacific islands. Droughts and floods in Africa, and hurricanes and typhoons in the Caribbean and Southeast Asia, are increasing in frequency and intensity. And yet the countries most affected by the climate crisis – nearly all of them in the Global South – have some of the lowest greenhouse-gas emissions worldwide. Helping these vulnerable countries build resilience is no longer an option; it is an imperative.The UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, concluded with the adoption of a New Collective Quantified Goal, with developed countries pledging at least $300bn annually, and all actors agreeing to scale up public and private finance for developing countries to $1.3tn per year by 2035. While the Baku agreement has understandably been met with scepticism, we have no choice but to redouble our efforts to achieve these goals.Public development banks will play an essential role in reaching these targets. Members of the International Development Finance Club (IDFC) are from developed and developing countries, which allows us to take a balanced view. Beyond the question of whether the amounts agreed to in Baku are sufficient, one believes that a major challenge of financing climate action is efficiency. The quality of funded projects, within the framework defined by the Paris climate agreement, is what will enable IDFC members and other public development banks to contribute as much as possible to a sustainable transition.But an even bigger challenge, particularly in an increasingly fragmented world, is how to deploy the full force of the global financial system against climate change. Increasing green investment while considering the needs of low- and middle-income countries is no longer sufficient. Instead, the aim should be to redirect all financial flows toward the green transition within the framework of the Sharm El-Sheikh dialogue.Achieving this goal will require overcoming three obstacles. First, we must stop funding projects and sectors that exacerbate global warming – a gargantuan task, given that the majority of financial flows remain incompatible with the Paris agreement’s objectives. Second, we must start responding to the needs of the most climate-vulnerable countries, where adaptation and mitigation efforts are chronically underfunded. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we need a radical overhaul of the global financial architecture.This systemic transformation requires close collaboration between public and private actors. Public development banks have an important role to play here. They are uniquely positioned to catalyse change by influencing public policies, strengthening local capacities, supporting sectoral transitions, and creating the conditions to mobilise private capital. Such financing is crucial for narrowing the gap between the commitments announced in Baku and the huge investment needed for climate-change mitigation and adaptation efforts in the developing world.While IDFC members have invested significantly in the global energy transition, their ability to transform national and regional financial systems may be their greatest asset. Supporting the development of ambitious national climate agendas, helping businesses and communities execute their transition plans, and strengthening the capacity of local financial institutions will have a larger multiplier effect than any amount of direct spending.To unlock this potential, several conditions must be met. First, all public development banks’ mandates and business models must be strengthened to reflect these objectives. And whether these banks are multilateral, national, or subnational, they need the means to act, which requires expanding their capital base and facilitating their access to concessional resources. Last, but certainly not least, we must develop a global accountability framework that classifies financial flows according to their contribution to the green economic transition. Doing so would allow development banks to work in a systematic and co-ordinated manner.Responding to the climate emergency requires mobilising the entire financial system. Public development banks are leading the way on this front, but they cannot devise comprehensive frameworks and set ambitious objectives by themselves. Solutions exist; we must implement them before time runs out.

Pity Rachel Reeves, the United Kingdom’s Chancellor of the Exchequer. Before she had even gotten through her highly anticipated “growth speech” on Jan 29, criticism flooded social media and the airwaves. Her approach is too scattered, some said, and too reliant on measures whose impact will be felt only over the long term. Some programmes run counter to the government’s environmental commitments, others said, and they are not evenly distributed across the UK. It is all too expensive. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary even went so far as to declare publicly that Reeves “hasn’t a clue”.Don’t get me wrong: the speech was not perfect. But perfection is not possible under the UK’s current economic and financial conditions, and to pursue an elusive optimum would be to make the perfect the enemy of the good. Moreover, Reeves’ speech did succeed in five areas.First, it reinforced the message that the government will go “further and faster” to boost growth – its “number one mission.” Second, it laid out several specific efforts – including planning (zoning) reforms, reducing over-regulation, and improving the use of pension-fund surpluses to increase domestic investment – to ease constraints on existing growth engines.Reeves also focused on the need to promote new drivers of growth, such as by creating a European “Silicon Valley” in the corridor linking Oxford and Cambridge, thereby scaling up these research hubs and the startups that draw on their breakthroughs. She wants to improve the UK’s trade relations to expand its available markets and attract more foreign direct investment. And, finally, she recognised that trade-offs are inevitable when pursuing a far-reaching reform agenda.Such a multipronged approach is what the UK needs to break out of decades of insufficient investment, lagging productivity, disappointing growth, and shrinking growth potential. Reeves’ growth agenda is about enabling the private sector to invest, create jobs, and expand. It is also about avoiding the 1%-of-GDP cut in public investment that was on the table last year.Of course, success will depend on whether the Chancellor’s words are urgently translated into action. The various elements of her plan must be executed simultaneously and in an accountable fashion. That will require a well-coordinated, whole-of-government approach to “hardwire growth into all decisions in the Cabinet,” as Prime Minister Keir Starmer put it before her speech.True, even if the government can meet all these requirements, its strategy may still lack some important elements. But many of Reeves’ critics fail to acknowledge the scale of the challenge and how she is stepping up to it. The UK has underinvested for decades and now faces serious growth and budget constraints.According to a widely cited study published by the Institute for Public Policy Research last year, “the UK has had the lowest level of investment in the G7 for 24 of the last 30 years. The last time the UK was ‘average’ in the G7 for total investment was in 1990.” The result of this chronic neglect is a staggering cumulative shortfall of £1.9tn. Just imagine how different things would look if the UK’s level of investment had been merely average.Given such poor investment performance, any government would need time and luck (especially with respect to external economic factors) to turn things around. The lack of budgetary space leaves the government with no single measure, no silver bullet, to deploy. Even the best growth-oriented policy package would have to comprise a wide variety of measures. Implementation was always going to take time, even if it did not require a broad range of public-private partnerships.Ultimately, the Starmer government’s growth mission will fail if it does not secure the buy-in of companies and households alike. The currently low level of business and consumer confidence is a major headwind to stronger growth, better budget outcomes, and higher inflows of foreign direct investment. It is why the government pivoted from its gloomy talk about the economy to statements about economic performance “turning around.”For the same reason, it is counterproductive – even dangerous – for politicians, media commentators, and economists to be so quick to trash Reeves’s speech, especially when they have no feasible alternative to offer. That is also why it is unhelpful to reduce the multifaceted growth strategy to the third runway at Heathrow airport, the item that is attracting the most attention.In March 2008, I co-authored a paper, “Growth Strategies and Dynamics: Insights from Country Experiences”, with the Nobel laureate economist Michael Spence. One of our findings was that successful growth strategies hardly ever specified every step in the policy journey. Indeed, it is almost impossible to do so. Instead, policymakers defined their destination, embarked with only an initial set of measures, focused on implementation, and remained open to course corrections as more information came in. What they did not do was fail to get off the starting block because the strategy was imperfect, incomplete, or would take too long to bear fruit. They gave growth a chance. The UK needs to do the same. – Project SyndicateMohamed A El-Erian, President of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, is a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, the author of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse (Random House, 2016), and a co-author (with Gordon Brown, Michael Spence, and Reid Lidow) of Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World (Simon & Schuster, 2023).

On February 23, German voters will elect a new federal parliament, and many expect the country’s established political parties to lose ground. In recent elections – for the European Parliament in June and in the East German Länder (federal states) of Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg in September – young voters flocked to the far-right Alternative für Deutschland. In the three eastern states, for example, 31-38% of voters under the age of 25 voted for the AfD.It was a shocking shift: in the 2021 federal election, young Germans largely supported the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), which won, respectively, 23% and 21% of the vote among 18- to 24-year-olds and 21% and 15% among 25- to 34-year-olds. Building on this success, the Greens and the FDP formed a new government with the Social Democrats. Hopes were high that the Ampelkoalition, or traffic-light coalition, for the three parties’ colours, would address the economic concerns of the young voters who helped bring it to power.That did not happen, and young Germans – like their counterparts across the democratic West – have swung to the right, into the arms of the populist AfD. A 2023 study suggests that the growing appeal of such parties can be explained by zero-sum thinking. The belief that groups gain only if other groups lose is deeply embedded in populism, which sets itself against global elites, the deep state, or foreigners whose success is believed to come at the expense of locals.The study’s authors found that zero-sum thinking tends to prevail when resources are scarce. That is certainly the case in Germany, where the economy has stagnated since the Covid-19 pandemic, leaving young people with limited job prospects and little chance of moving up the income scale. Even if the German economy were growing robustly, young people would still be facing one of the lowest rates of social mobility among OECD countries.Improving young people’s economic prospects and increasing social mobility should be a high priority for the next German government. The Harvard economist Raj Chetty has some suggestions for how to go about it.To promote equality of opportunity, which is easier to agree on than redistributing income, Chetty recommends focusing on communities, rather than the individual, as the unit of change. Specifically, he suggests targeting areas where opportunity is lacking. Such an approach accounts for the fact that the chances of a child escaping poverty vary dramatically across places, but also within cities. For example, Chetty’s research has shown that moving to a better neighbourhood can improve children’s prospects significantly, even when families’ financial status remains unchanged.Increasing social mobility, according to Chetty, also requires building social capital through a system of “connected capitalism,” in which financial incentives link people who have opportunities with those who lack them. In communities where the rich and poor interact more, people born into poverty are more likely to receive guidance from their wealthier connections on navigating complex decisions, such as where to go to university, and to be inspired to follow similar career paths. One way to reduce class segregation is by providing low-income families with housing vouchers to move to opportunity-rich neighbourhoods.Implementing these ideas and others espoused by Chetty requires a wholesale reorganisation of social assistance. In Germany, the different government agencies responsible for affordable housing, employment, and state benefits would need to unite around the common cause of creating opportunity and to devise policy to achieve that goal.A quarter-century ago, the Harvard political scientist Robert D. Putnam published Bowling Alone, which showed how the US, once a country of joiners, was turning into a country of loners. Americans were not attending church or marrying as often as they had been, and Putnam warned of social isolation’s corrosive effect on democracy.The same trend can be seen in Germany, where feelings of loneliness have increased over the past five years, especially among people under the age of 30. This has surely contributed to the widening political divide between the country’s young men, who have grown increasingly conservative, and its young women, who have adopted far more liberal views. Compounding young people’s plight is the fact that almost one in five Germans between the ages of 20 and 34 have no vocational qualification, which often results in below-average earnings.Like Chetty, Putnam underscored the importance of building “bridging social capital” – the ties that link people across generations, genders, and incomes. The next German government must focus on improving such ties, which includes promoting community well-being and economic prosperity, to give young people hope for the future and stop their drift toward far-right populism. – Project SyndicateDalia Marin, Professor of International Economics at the School of Management of the Technical University of Munich, is a research fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research and a non-resident fellow at Bruegel.

Cartoon

Director of Qatar Radio Mohammed Nasser al-Mohannadi affirmed that the radio has produced many specialised and thematic programmes to discuss the most prominent environmental issues and challenges, as well as ways to address the negative effects of climate change, which impact human lives.In an interview with Qatar News Agency on World Radio Day, which falls on Feb 13 each year, al-Mohannadi explained that Qatar Radio had produced several special programmes addressing climate change, including a programme that discusses the role of radio in the issue of climate change, in collaboration with the Radio Tunisienne, in addition to a documentary episode documenting the radio’s relationship with climate change and its role in raising awareness about the issue’s repercussions, its effects, and how to reduce the damage gap caused by it.Al-Mohannadi pointed out that among the programmes produced by Qatar Radio on this occasion is a special episode, which takes the listener back to 1946, when the UN Radio was launched. The episode also highlights the idea of celebrating World Radio Day, which was proposed by the Spanish Radio Academy to the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (Unesco), as an annual reminder of the important role of radio, he added.Furthermore, Qatar Radio airs short awareness segments on environmental and climate change issues throughout the day within its programming plans, he noted.He emphasised Qatar Radio’s commitment to participating in the global celebration of World Radio Day, which this year is under the theme “Radio and Climate Change.” He noted that Qatar Radio plays an important role in producing programmes that serve the theme of the year, as it began early preparations with a specialised team as soon as the theme was announced, working to develop ideas and concepts and implement them in the best possible way to ensure that the message reaches all listeners and achieves its desired goals.He also highlighted that the radio had actively engaged with the theme of the year, given the global attention to the phenomenon of climate change. This focus aligns with Qatar Radio’s message of confronting the challenges and negative effects of climate change that affect human lives, he said. The Radio discusses the issue in all its dimensions, whether by shedding light on Qatar’s strategic plans in this field or through the awareness-raising efforts to increase public awareness of environmental issues in general and climate change in particular, he pointed out.Al-Mohannadi revealed plans to expand broadcasting reach and engage a wider audience through programme exchanges between the Arab States Broadcasting Union in general and the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) radios in particular. This would provide the opportunity to deliver the media message to a larger number of target audiences both in Qatar and abroad.He underlined that Qatar Radio contributes to discussing environmental and climate change issues through its various programmes, whether live or recorded, stressing that every program cycle hosts specialists and experts in this field to discuss the main challenges and work on addressing environmental challenges in the best possible way. He also emphasised that awareness of these issues is constantly increasing, demonstrating the significant role that radio plays in influencing audiences and raising their awareness of such critical issues that impact people’s lives.Qatar Radio constantly works on providing specialised and thematic programmes to shed light on the phenomenon of climate change by co-operating with all relevant parties, particularly the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, as well as specialised centres, to address all matters related to environmental and climate change issues. It also hosts experts and specialists in this field who share their experiences and knowledge in addressing climate change challenges, he said.Al-Mohannadi stressed that the radio strategy is based on distinguished and attractive production to discuss environmental challenges and the negative effects of climate change, given the importance of the issue that must be addressed from several aspects, including informative and awareness-raising aspects, in addition to enhancing co-operation with the relevant authorities to contribute to raising environmental issues and ways to confront the repercussions of climate change.He said that Qatar Radio has many platforms on social media for its programmes in general and for such types of programmes that discuss environmental issues in particular, noting that these platforms are invested in presenting special programmes and short, interesting illustrated materials to attract different categories of listeners.He said that the Qatar Radio is working to benefit from modern technological means, especially AI technologies, in order to reach different segments of society and expand the listener base. He pointed out that there is great awareness among all age groups of the importance of preserving the environment due to its great impact on human lives.Regarding Qatar Radio’s future plans in the environment field, al-Mohannadi said that the plan is based on presenting more awareness programmes that aim for a better environmental life. He added that their radio and social media platforms are used in interactive ways that enables them to deliver their message to all followers.In this context, Qatar Radio’s efforts are integrated with global efforts to reduce this phenomenon by discussing and analysing all news related to the seriousness of the climate change and how to confront it. For example, it was discussed how 2024 was the hottest in history and that in 2025, there is a need to combine efforts, co-operation and integration between all media outlets to reduce this dangerous phenomenon.Al-Mohannadi said that the message Qatar Radio emphasises is that a clean environment is a legacy inherited from our fathers and grandfathers, which must be kept that way so it can be a healthy environment for future generations. Therefore, Qatar Radio continuously and consistently highlight Qatari projects and initiatives that have a large and strong presence in all fields and in all international forums related to environmental issues and climate change, through programmes, websites, and correspondents.The Director of Qatar Radio stressed the radio’s keenness to allocate a large space to inform its listeners of the projects, initiatives and efforts undertaken by Qatar in relation to protecting the environment, combating climate change and confronting its challenges for a better future for humanity.The celebration of World Radio Day was proposed the Spanish Radio Academy and was officially presented by the Permanent Delegation of Spain to Unesco at the 187th session of the Executive Council in Sept 2011. Unesco approved it on November 3, 2011 at its 36th session, and World Radio Day was approved in December 2012 by the UN General Assembly. Unesco aims to allocate a World Radio Day to raise awareness among the general public and media professionals of the importance of radio. (QNA)

The first two weeks of US President Donald Trump’s second term were marked by a flurry of directives and executive orders. As expected, he wasted no time withdrawing the United States from the 2015 Paris climate agreement, just as he did during his first presidency. He withdrew the US from the World Health Organisation as well, and soon initiated a sweeping deportation campaign, using tariffs to pressure Colombia into accepting military planes carrying deported Colombian citizens.While controversial, the deportation of undocumented immigrants – particularly those with criminal records – has broad public support. Other Trump initiatives, such as his renewed push to purchase Greenland and regain control of the Panama Canal, have been more polarising, and his decision to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America has raised eyebrows in the US and abroad.True to form, Trump has also introduced a raft of new tariffs. Most notably, he followed through on his campaign threats and announced a 10% tariff on imports from China. Before assuming office, Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods.But Trump’s tariff offensive is not confined to traditional adversaries. In addition to China, he imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded by pledging “forceful but reasonable” retaliation, though his ability to follow through is limited. In early January, Trudeau, with his popularity plumbing new lows, announced his resignation. Trump’s threats and relentless mockery – including the suggestion that Canada become the 51st US state – did not help, further undermining Trudeau’s already fragile political standing.Trump has also announced plans to impose tariffs on Taiwan-made semiconductors, prompting emergency talks among Taiwanese policymakers. Taken together, these moves confirm what has long been apparent: geopolitical alliances mean little to Trump unless they serve his immediate interests.Curiously, Trump has remained silent about Japan and South Korea, America’s two major allies in East Asia. Neither country was mentioned in his inauguration speech or in any of his subsequent statements and policy announcements. Both could find themselves under renewed pressure soon enough, given that Trump has been calling for them to spend more on defence since his first term. For the time being, however, Trump’s apparent lack of interest in Japan and South Korea could work in their favour.It is certainly a welcome relief for South Korea, which is in the midst of a domestic political crisis following the impeachment and arrest of former president Yoon Suk-yeol. Since South Korea does not have a vice-president, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo initially stepped in as acting president after Yoon was impeached for briefly declaring martial law. But Han himself was impeached two weeks later, leaving his deputy Choi Sang-mok to assume the roles of acting prime minister and president. Amid this political turmoil, Choi’s ability to push back against potential demands from Trump is severely constrained.The Japanese government, for its part, is treading carefully, seeking to maintain a close relationship with Trump while considering possible concessions to avoid being hit by tariffs. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s first meeting with Trump is this week, three months after the US presidential election in November. Ishiba congratulated Trump after his victory, but their phone call lasted only five minutes – a stark contrast to Trump’s 12-minute call with then-South Korean President Yoon and 25-minute conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron.During Trump’s first term, Japan’s then-prime minister Shinzo Abe cultivated a strong relationship with the US president, bonding over their shared love of golf and establishing himself as a trusted ally in international forums like the G7. Ishiba, who is not a golfer, lacks this personal rapport, as well as the negotiating skills that led Trump to see Abe as a reliable partner.Moreover, Abe was a political powerhouse. By securing a historic third term as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, he solidified his image as a strong and popular figure. By contrast, Ishiba has limited influence over the LDP and the Diet (the Japanese parliament’s lower house). As the head of a minority government, he has expressed a willingness to work with opposition parties to pass key legislation – an approach that may strike Trump as a sign of weakness. Given Ishiba’s tenuous hold on leadership, Japan may come to view Trump’s indifference as a blessing. — Project Syndicate

Cartoon

Qatar and Rwanda maintain robust and exceptional ties that reflect the desire of the leaderships of the two nations to strengthen them in wide-ranging fields for the best interest of the two friendly countries and peoples.Qatar pursues the policy of openness and co-operation in engaging with various sisterly nations and friendly peoples, including the African nations that share rock-solid strategic ties with the State, based on mutual respect, co-operation and solidarity toward African and global issues. It seeks to advance its investment programmes, in pursuit of serving the common interest with many sisterly and friendly countries in general.The relationship is burgeoning and is termed as ambitious and promising, with the two nations consistently working to build a role model partnership and collaborating on numerous issues to serve their interests and those of other nations, with Qatar being a strategic partner to Rwanda.Bilateral ties have been steadily growing since the establishment of their diplomatic relations in 2017, and since then, leaders of the two countries have been regularly meeting, and their high-profile mutual visits at the levels of ministers and various delegations gave impetus to the co-operation in many critical fields that fostered bilateral partnership.The two countries are connected with a plethora of agreements and memorandums of understanding (MoUs) covering political, diplomatic, economic, trade, agricultural, cultural, sports, as well as investment and co-operation sectors in the area of aviation and double taxation avoidance.In addition, the two countries signed an agreement to acquire 60% of the share of the Rwandan Bugesera International Airport, with Qatar Airways signing two agreements with the Rwandan tourism air transport company and one agreement with the Aviation, Travel and Logistics Holding Limited in Rwanda, along with an MoU for defence co-operation.Hassad, Qatar’s premier investor in food sector, also signed an MoU with the Rwandan government for broadening the co-operation opportunities and studying investment opportunities in food and agricultural fields.Furthermore, Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) inked an MoU with Rwanda Finance Limited (RFL) to facilitate initiatives that will promote the international development of both QFC and Kigali International Financial Centre. Under this MoU, the two parties intend to encourage their respective regulatory authorities to enter mutual recognition agreements to open new business opportunities in both markets.This MoU marks the long-term co-operation between QFC and Rwanda Finance Limited to support businesses in Rwanda and Qatar through joint initiatives that foster skills development, knowledge exchange and investment and partnership opportunities. The agreement also takes QFC a step further in its efforts to forging durable partnerships with international markets that help support Qatar’s economic diversification and capacity building drive.The signed agreements between the two countries comprise an agreement that enables passengers boarding flights with Qatari and Rwandan airways to reach over 160 destinations in the joint networks from Kigali and Doha.On the margins of the ICAO Air Services Negotiation (ICAN2023) held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in December 2023, the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority held bilateral discussions with the Rwandan counterpart which came up with positive outcomes, culminating in signing an MoU that allows both air carriers to enter into trade cooperation agreements.Rwandan President Paul Kagame so far expressed his country’s desire to foster its economic and partnership with Qatar, highlighting that the path of development in Qatar is a role model. He emphasised that there is a significant opportunity to advance economic and trade co-operation with Qatar, with Rwanda positioning itself as one of the fastest growing economies in Africa.By and large, Rwanda offers a growing and stable investment system in industries, such as such as textiles, apparel, leather, agriculture, livestock, industry, tourism, information and communications technology, and pharmaceuticals, along with significant contributions from the services sector to the Gross Domestic product (GDP), the president said.Kagame emphasised that his country possesses numerous investment advantages, but it should draw on its own efforts to achieve its aspirations by pursuing a new mindset and engaging in diligent and persistent work.Rwanda is located in the heart of Africa, south of the equator, within the Great Lakes Plateau. It is a landlocked nation with no coastline, connecting to the outside world through neighboring countries, particularly via the ports of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania and Mombasa in Kenya.The country spans over 26,000 sq km and has an estimated population of 12mn, with 83% residing in rural areas.In the early 1990s, Rwanda experienced one of the most brutal ethnic conflicts in history. However, it has managed to recover and rebuild itself into a unified, prosperous nation, filled with hope, success, and competitiveness both regionally and globally.Rwanda’s success story exemplifies the potential for transformation. Once a small, impoverished nation, it has achieved considerable progress, transitioning from an agrarian economy to one focused on technology, knowledge, and services. The country has fostered foreign investment by reducing barriers, offering incentives, and opening all sectors to international investors.With their clean and sophistication, streets in Rwanda resemble most streets of the European capitals as visitors cant be oblivious to the landmarks of the economic boom the nation witnesses. It is known as the land of a thousand hills and draws tourists from different territories around the globe thanks to the rare and tantalising natural landscape. (QNA)

A Bank of America survey of global fund managers in January showed the re-emergence of global consumer price growth as a key theme for 2025. The World Bank predicted slowing inflation but still warned that it “could prove to be more persistent than expected.”US, European and Japanese inflation expectations have jumped significantly since Donald Trump emerged as favourite to win US presidency.And for the US in particular, analysts are openly starting to reassess inflation prospects.On Feb 4, Morgan Stanley scrapped its forecast for a Federal Reserve interest rate reduction in March, with its Chief US Economist Michael Gapen saying “on-again-off-again tariff uncertainty should raise the hurdle for Fed cuts.”That followed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks recently that officials aren’t in a rush to lower borrowing costs as policymakers pause easing to see further progress on inflation.The potential for increased tariffs complicates that outlook.The more President Trump threatens tariffs on the US’s trading partners, the more the worry of another inflation wave troubles global economists.Stubborn consumer price growth was bothering much of the world even before he entered the White House.Multiple economies now face latent inflation pressures, either domestic or external.In the US, a resilient labour market is keeping the Fed on alert as Trump’s policies and threats drive bond yields higher. Elsewhere, dollar strength is haunting emerging markets such as Indonesia.One thing is clear: The Fed will take its time to assess the impact of Trump’s policies.Across the Atlantic, the extent of any trade response may be key if Trump unleashes tariffs. For now, policymakers have downplayed them as a price driver in either direction.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has argued she isn’t “overly concerned” about importing inflation and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has said tariff effects aren’t straightforward to predict.But consumers and professional forecasters are less sanguine than policymakers, raising their 2025 inflation outlook in ECB surveys. And a Bloomberg poll showed a majority of economists is now more concerned about price pressures exceeding 2% in the medium term.Even in Asia, where prices are largely back within target ranges, issues persist.South Korea’s consumer inflation accelerated in January on the back of higher energy and food prices.In Japan — where the return of price increases is welcome after decades battling deflation — nominal wages rose at the fastest pace in nearly three decades in December, supporting the Bank of Japan’s latest rate hike decision and keeping the bank on track for further tightening steps.Trump substantially raised tariffs on steel and aluminium imports on Monday to a flat 25% “without exceptions or exemptions.” The tariffs will apply to millions of tonnes of steel and aluminium imports from Canada, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and other countries that had been entering the US duty free under the carve-outs.But US tariffs are an “evolving story” and it is too early to assess their impact on the world economy, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said yesterday. The outlook for inflation was hard to predict, she suggested.While there’s still a lot of uncertainty around US tariff levels, their timing and potential retaliation, it’s clear that it’ll not only pressure prices but also weaken growth globally.A few weeks ago, the Bank for International Settlements even warned of stagflation, a relatively rare mix of persistent high inflation, weak labour markets and tepid growth.US inflation showed scant signs of downward momentum at the start of the year, while healthy job growth undergirded the economy, backing the Fed’s stance to hold the line on interest rates for now. Moreover, proposed policies from the Trump administration risk keeping inflation elevated.

The West is on a war footing. The German government is working on an app that helps people locate their nearest bunker. A 32-page pamphlet entitled If Crisis or War Comes was published in Sweden, and a similar one was downloaded countless times in Finland. Venerable newspapers publish wargame scenarios where Russia, with China’s backing, invades Norway’s arctic islands.In the European Union, top officials argue that the key to unlocking Europe’s chronically low level of investment is its arms industry. US President Donald Trump casually talks about taking over Greenland and the Panama Canal. To top it all off, a storm is gathering over Taiwan, the Philippines, and the South China Sea.Trump and his political opponents disagree on almost everything. But one thing they do agree on is that America is caught in what Harvard University’s Graham Allison calls the Thucydides Trap – the fate of a hegemon confronted by a rising power, China. Meanwhile, the West is running the risk of falling into the Oedipus trap: exacerbating a crisis with actions intended to prevent it – just as Oedipus ended up killing Laius, his father, only because Laius took harsh measures aimed at thwarting the Delphic prophecy that he would be killed by his son. Either of these traps could trigger a catastrophic war.Meanwhile, we are increasingly dominated by cloud capital – a new form of capital consisting of networked machines running algorithms that we train to know us well enough to alter what we want and then sell it to us outside any actual market. Unlike diesel engines and industrial robots, which are manufactured means of production, cloud capital produces an exorbitant capacity to modify our behaviour, bestowing unprecedented power on its owners – our technofeudal masters. This reinforces the Thucydides and Oedipus traps in four distinct ways.First, especially when augmented with artificial-intelligence capabilities, cloud capital lowers the threshold for deploying weapons of mass, albeit targeted, destruction. It is far cheaper to send a swarm of micro-drones, equipped with AI facial recognition, into urban areas to take out prespecified targets autonomously than it is to deploy heavy bombers. It is also easier for presidents and prime ministers to muster the moral conviction to give the order. That is why the capitalisation of a cloud capital-intensive company like Palantir has surpassed that of a legacy behemoth like Lockheed Martin.Second, to deliver maximum revenues, the cloud capital powering our social media is optimised to maximise engagement, a goal most easily achieved by getting us heated, angry, and abusive toward one another. The poisoning of public debates that results from this business model erodes the democratic institutions which hitherto had some capacity to restrain our more bellicose politicians and generals.Third, cloud capital has weakened Europe to the point where it can no longer play the moderating role that it once played during the Cold War. This is because most cloud capital is concentrated in the US and China. As high concentrations of cloud capital have become a prerequisite for substantial economic and political power, Europe has slid into relative irrelevance.Fourth, in China, cloud capital has created a real challenger to America’s near-monopoly of the international payments system, which historically has given US governments the leeway to sanction any country or person they choose. This is far more significant than any animosity within the US caused by the emergence of DeepSeek, the Chinese AI firm whose most recent offering led to losses of $1tn in US stock markets.China’s chief challenge stems from a deep asymmetry vis-à-vis the US that has nothing to do with technology: Wall Street treats Silicon Valley as a potential usurper of its financial revenues, a tussle in which it can count on the support of the Federal Reserve. In contrast, China’s financial sector, central bank, and largest tech firms are working in unison, resulting in a seamless, free-to-use, private-public digital payments system that the West cannot match.Although it currently resembles a pristine multilane freeway that few outside the country use, the Chinese payments system poses a serious long-term threat to the global monopoly of the dollar-denominated payments system and gives the Chinese government and its allies options that alleviate the fear of US sanctions. In a never-ending cycle of negative reinforcement, that newfound confidence fuels America’s eagerness to “get tough” on China.War is in the air more than peace these days. This reflects not only the salience of well-known strategic traps, but also the rise of technofeudal power, which is driving us into them. – Project SyndicateYanis Varoufakis, a former finance minister of Greece, is leader of the MeRA25 party and Professor of Economics at the University of Athens.

The famous saying by Islamic scholar Ibn Qayyim, “If you do not know, it is a disaster. But if you know and do nothing, the disaster is even greater,” encapsulates a timeless truth about the human condition.Ignorance can be a formidable challenge, often leading to misjudgments and errors. However, the true catastrophe arises when individuals possess knowledge yet deliberately ignore or misuse it. This principle extends beyond personal ethics, influencing societal norms, leadership, and governance. Knowledge, rather than being a privilege alone, is a responsibility that must be upheld with integrity.In Hamlet, William Shakespeare wrote, “There is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so.” This echoes the dilemma of knowledge — what one does with it defines its ultimate impact. Simply knowing the truth is insufficient; wisdom lies in the application of that truth.Ignorance, in itself, is not a crime. Many people are unaware of laws, ethics, or moral obligations, but they have the opportunity to seek knowledge, ask questions, and educate themselves. As Thomas Gray famously wrote in his poem Ode on a Distant Prospect of Eton College, “Where ignorance is bliss, ‘tis folly to be wise.” While this phrase is often misinterpreted as an endorsement of ignorance, in reality, it highlights the innocence of unawareness before one encounters life’s harsh realities.The real issue arises when ignorance is wilful — when individuals choose to turn a blind eye to knowledge out of laziness, fear of responsibility, or self-interest. This transforms ignorance from a temporary gap in understanding into a conscious rejection of truth. In such cases, ignorance is not merely a lack of awareness but a self-inflicted failure to engage with reality.If ignorance is a problem, then possessing knowledge without acting upon it is a catastrophe of far greater magnitude. To know what is right and yet ignore it is not just negligence; it is a betrayal of wisdom. This failure can manifest at multiple levels. On a personal level, many individuals recognise their mistakes yet persist in them. Rationalisation, self-deception, or sheer complacency prevent them from making the necessary changes. As T.S. Eliot once wrote, “We do not dare to disturb the universe.” The fear of consequences often stops people from taking corrective action, turning knowledge into an unbearable burden rather than a tool for growth. On a social level, societies crumble when individuals and institutions knowingly tolerate wrongdoing. Silence in the face of injustice erodes trust, allowing corruption to flourish. Edmund Burke’s famous words, “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing,” highlight this exact dilemma. Those who recognise societal problems yet remain passive enable the very injustices they decry.On a political level, the most dangerous form of neglected knowledge is seen in leadership and governance. Leaders who understand the challenges faced by their people but refuse to act effectively betray their duty. As George Orwell pointed out in 1984, “The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those who speak it.” When truth is inconvenient, it is often ignored or distorted, leading to crises that could have been prevented.To overcome the “greater disaster” of neglected knowledge, three fundamental steps must be taken. First, accepting responsibility is essential, as knowledge is not merely an asset but an obligation. Those who are aware of the truth must take ownership of their role in shaping a better world, whether at an individual, societal, or governmental level. Second, applying knowledge in practice is crucial, as true wisdom comes from action, not just awareness. As Leonardo da Vinci once said, “Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.” Knowledge must be transformed into meaningful change rather than remaining theoretical.Third, spreading knowledge is key to diminishing ignorance, as insight should not be confined to elite circles but made accessible to all. As Mark Twain famously quipped, “A person who won’t read has no advantage over one who can’t read.” Knowledge is only powerful when it is utilised, shared, and acted upon.Ibn Qayyim’s wisdom remains as relevant today as it was centuries ago: ignorance is a problem, but knowing the truth and failing to act is an even greater disaster. It is a call to action — urging individuals to rise above complacency, take responsibility, and ensure that knowledge serves its true purpose.The challenge is not merely to learn, but to embody that learning in daily life. As Victor Hugo wrote in Les Misérables, “To know is nothing at all; to imagine is everything.” Yet, beyond imagination, what truly matters is courage — the courage to act upon knowledge and use it for the greater good.

Cartoon

In Ghana and Kenya, insecticide and mosquito nets sit in warehouses because US officials haven’t approved urgent anti-malaria campaigns.In Haiti, a group treating HIV patients awaits US permission to dispense medicines that prevent mothers from giving the disease to their children.In Myanmar, where famine looms and the US is the single largest aid donor, one humanitarian worker described the situation as “mayhem”.Nearly three weeks into US President Donald Trump’s sweeping freeze on foreign aid, life-saving programmes across the globe remain shut as humanitarian workers struggle to secure US government waivers meant to keep them open, dozens of aid workers and UN staff told Reuters.After Trump announced the 90-day freeze on January 20, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued waivers for what he called “life-saving humanitarian assistance”, which included “core life-saving medicine, medical services, food, shelter, and subsistence assistance”.But aid workers and UN officials said the waivers had sparked widespread confusion, along with fears that their US funding would never be restored.They said they couldn’t restart work without first confirming with their US counterparts whether specific programmes qualified for exemption. This was proving nearly impossible, they said, due to a communication breakdown with US officials, some of whom had been fired or barred from talking.The breakdown appeared partly by design. On January 31, staff at the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), once the main delivery mechanism for American largesse, were told not to communicate externally about the waiver and what it may or may not include, according to a previously unreported recording of the meeting reviewed by Reuters.The US State Department and White House did not respond to requests for comment.The spiralling consequences of the aid freeze in developing countries underline the real-world harms from Trump’s upending of decades-old US initiatives designed to build global alliances by making America the world’s most generous superpower and largest single aid donor.Aid workers had a list of urgent questions going unanswered. Among them: Which programmes could continue? What qualifies as life-saving aid? Food? Shelter? Medicine? And how do they keep people from dying when almost every aid service has been shut at once?With little guidance from US officials, aid workers said their organisations erred on the side of caution and closed programmes rather than incur expenses that the US government might not reimburse, the aid workers said. Some described how US partners — often people they had worked with for years — no longer answered their phones or emails.One Geneva-based aid official who reached US officials was stunned by their response. “We asked: Can you tell us exactly which programmes we need to stop? Then we got a message saying ‘no more guidance is forthcoming’. This leaves us in a situation where you have to make a choice of which programme is ‘life-saving’,” the official said. “We don’t have money to pay for it ourselves. We can’t spend money we don’t know if we have.”The turmoil was particularly acute at USAID, now in disarray and targeted for closure as a “criminal organisation” by Trump’s government efficiency tsar, the billionaire Elon Musk.In his executive order, Trump said the US “foreign aid industry and bureaucracy” were “in many cases antithetical to American values”. He ordered the 90-day pause pending a review on whether aid was consistent with his “America First” foreign policy.Most of those who spoke to Reuters requested anonymity, fearful of antagonising the Trump administration and jeopardising the possible restoration of aid.Two workers with aid organisations in Myanmar told Reuters they didn’t know whether US-funded food distribution in the country was covered by a waiver and would continue. One of the workers described the situation as “mayhem.” Myanmar faces a severe food crisis due to natural disasters and a spiralling civil war. An estimated two million people in the country are on the brink of famine, according to the UN.Refugees also bore the brunt of the aid freeze in Bangladesh, where the US funds about 55% of assistance to more than a million Rohingya from Myanmar living in squalid camps. “Some essential and life-saving services” had been interrupted by the freeze, said the Inter Sector Coordination Group, an international relief organisation that oversees the camps, in a previously unreported draft statement to local aid groups. The group didn’t respond to a request for comment.A UN official in Bangladesh seeking clarity on which programmes could remain open said US counterparts were “not answering the phones”.In Africa, humanitarian workers were due to start anti-malaria spraying campaigns this month in Ghana and Kenya before mosquito populations explode during the rainy season, but insecticide and mosquito nets are stuck in warehouses, said a USAID contractor.A USAID memo, dated February 4 and seen by Reuters on Saturday, said “life-saving activities” to address malaria, tuberculosis and other diseases and conditions would be exempt from the freeze. But campaigns to protect millions of people appeared on hold as aid workers sought clarification on when funding would resume and specific malaria programmes in Africa could restart, the contractor said.Malaria, a preventable disease, is caused by parasites transmitted to people by the bites of infected mosquitoes. The vast majority of the world’s 597,000 malaria deaths in 2023 were African children aged under five years old, the World Health Organisation said in December.“There is a small window to do those campaigns which is going to close rapidly,” said the USAID contractor. Millions of US taxpayer dollars already spent on supplies to fight malaria in Africa could go to waste, aid workers said. Malaria No More, a global nonprofit based in Washington, said the freeze could prevent the distribution of 15.6mn life-saving treatments, 9mn nets and 48mn doses of preventative medicine.The US is the top donor in the global fight against malaria, mostly through the President’s Malaria Initiative, known as PMI, set up under former President George W Bush in 2005. PMI’s website — which included information on populations at risk of malaria — has been taken down and replaced with a brief statement: “In order to be consistent with the President’s Executive Orders, this website is currently undergoing maintenance as we expeditiously and thoroughly review all of the content.”“It’s as if all the work... has just been erased,” said Anne Linn, a USAID staffer who worked remotely from Montana as a technical advisor and was fired on Jan 28. “It’s so cruel and senseless,” she said. “The wastefulness of it is staggering to me.”In Haiti, a programme that provides treatment to AIDS patients was supposed to be exempt from the aid freeze under a State Department waiver but remained shut because it hadn’t received specific written instructions to open, said a worker at the nonprofit programme. She said funding for the programme came from the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, known as PEPFAR, the world’s leading initiative to combat HIV.The State Department, which manages PEPFAR, said on February 1 that the programme was covered by the waiver for life-saving humanitarian assistance. But the aid worker said she hadn’t received paperwork confirming that they could continue to distribute medicine.“Everything is closed until further notice,” she said. Pregnant women were at risk because the programme provides medication that can prevent HIV transmission to their infants, she added. She said more than half of Haiti’s 150,000 AIDS patients received treatment through PEPFAR.In 2024, the US provided 60% of Haiti’s humanitarian funding, totalling $208 million, according to the UN’s Financial Tracking Service.The problems were exacerbated by turmoil at USAID, whose leaders Trump has described as “radical left lunatics.”Trump’s administration plans to keep 611 staff at USAID out of its worldwide total of more than 10,000, according to a notice sent to the agency on February 5 and reviewed by Reuters.Washington’s primary humanitarian aid agency has been a target of a government reorganisation programme spearheaded by Musk, a close Trump ally, since the Republican president took office on January 20. Staff have been shut out of the agency’s headquarters in Washington. Rubio has appointed himself the agency’s acting administrator.An expert in water and sanitation spoke of “mass confusion” at the USAID’s global health bureau after she and dozens of others were fired on January 28. “It happened so quickly that I had no way of saving emails, contacts,” she said. “We were all just thrown away and bulldozed over.”In Thailand, the aid freeze forced the International Rescue Committee, which funds health clinics with US support, to quickly shut down the hospital and clinics it ran in seven refugee camps on the Myanmar-Thai border. IRC was told by US officials they couldn’t reopen before receiving another notification, which hasn’t arrived, said an aid worker.Many were discharged from the IRC facilities, leaving people including pregnant women and children unable to access medication or medical equipment, said Francois Nosten, director of the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit, a field station in the border camps run by Bangkok’s Mahidol University.An elderly woman, who had been hospitalised with lung problems and was dependent on oxygen, died four days after being discharged, according to her family. Reuters couldn’t independently confirm her cause of death.An IRC spokesperson said some refugees had “self-organised” to provide critical services for themselves until aid support was “transitioned” to Thai authorities.If “you cut all the activities then some people are going to die”, said Nosten. — Reuters

Deb Taylor emerged empty-handed from her branch of budget fashion retailer Primark in Southampton, southern England, complaining that “even the cheap stuff’s not cheap anymore”.The 63-year-old cleaner was echoed by Antonia Alden, a stay-at-home mum of three who was on a rare shopping trip looking for a birthday present. “Other than that, I don’t even bother going to the shops,” the 30-year-old said.Both women are struggling to make ends meet after months of high inflation and soaring energy bills, and epitomise the drop in confidence and spending among lower-income shoppers shown in a succession of British surveys.While the bottom fifth of households by income account for just a tenth of UK consumer spending, their reluctance or inability to open their wallets is a headwind for a government that has made growth its top priority, and a political risk too.The Labour Party, elected last July, is already under pressure from Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform party which is having success in targeting those Britons who feel left behind.The financial stress is also bad news for retailers reliant on less affluent shoppers, with the likes of Primark, discounters Poundland and B&M, baker Greggs and sportswear group JD Sports all struggling in the key Christmas quarter.In contrast, mid-market retailers such as Marks & Spencer and Next performed well.“Clearly there is a huge disparity between the haves and have nots, and this appears to be getting worse not better at the start of 2025,” said Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at market research firm GfK. Many business executives had hoped that Labour’s landslide election victory would bring some stability to Britain following 14-years of often chaotic Conservative rule dominated by the departure from the European Union.But its first budget announcement in October, with a £25bn ($31bn) tax raid on companies to fund investment and public services, has left them reeling.While interest rates are slowly coming down and earnings adjusted for inflation are rising at the fastest pace for more than 20 years, the jobs market has weakened and the economy has flatlined. Retailers warn of price hikes due to higher costs, the Bank of England sees overall inflation rising back to 3.7% this year, and employers have said they expect to rein in pay awards.Britain has long used its minimum wage to support the lowest paid and it has risen almost 50% since before the Covid pandemic - but even with that, large increases in the cost of energy and food have hit the lowest paid disproportionately hard.Eoin Tonge, finance director of Primark parent Associated British Foods, told Reuters the budget had not helped: “If anything uncertainties remain for elements of society, with unemployment and also part-time work being challenging.”The pressures can be seen in a monthly Income Tracker from supermarket group Asda and the Centre for Economics and Business Research, which calculates how much UK households have left to spend after paying taxes and bills. Top and middle income households saw their weekly disposable income grow in December, up 9.9% year-on-year to £894 ($1,111) for the most wealthy, and 18.6% for those in the middle. But for the UK’s lowest-earning 20% of households, it fell by 0.3%, leaving a shortfall of £70 per week.GfK said confidence levels in households with incomes under £14,500 a year fell 11 points in its January survey to minus 46. In contrast, households with incomes over £50,000 saw a drop of just 4 points to minus 1.Similarly, the Institute of Grocery Distribution said its most recent survey found 41% of shoppers who earn below 21,000 pounds plan to cut grocery spend in the next few months, and more than half plan to eat out less.On top of money worries, concerns around job security have risen. Supermarket groups Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons have announced 3,600 job cuts in recent weeks. John Jones, who runs shop and online store Philip Morris and Sons in Hereford, western England, may cut two of his 22 staff as he faces a £100,000 jump in his annual costs from April due to policy changes in the budget.“When you’ve already got no growth, and probably no prospect of growth because the consumers aren’t feeling very confident, that’s a lot of money to be finding,” he said.Outside Primark, Alden is bracing for a tough year: “I don’t see it getting any better.” - Reuters

Cartoon

The release of the Chinese DeepSeek-R1 large language model, with its impressive capabilities and low development cost, shocked financial markets and led to claims of a “Sputnik moment” in artificial intelligence. But a powerful, innovative Chinese model achieving parity with US products should come as no surprise. It is the predictable result of a major US and Western policy failure, for which the AI industry itself bears much of the blame.China’s growing AI capabilities were well known to the AI research community, and even to the interested public. After all, Chinese AI researchers and companies have been remarkably open about their progress, publishing papers, open-sourcing their software, and speaking with US researchers and journalists. A New York Times article from last July was headlined, China Is Closing the AI Gap with the United States.Two factors explain China’s achievement of near parity. First, China has an aggressive, coherent national policy to reach self-sufficiency and technical superiority across the entire digital technology stack, from semiconductor capital equipment and AI processors to hardware products and AI models – and in both commercial and military applications. Second, US (and EU) government policies and industry behaviour have exhibited a depressing combination of complacency, incompetence, and greed.It should be obvious that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are no friends of the West, and that AI will drive enormously consequential economic and military transformations. Given the stakes involved, maintaining AI leadership within democratic advanced economies justifies, and even demands, an enormous public-private strategic mobilisation on the scale of the Manhattan Project, Nato, various energy-independence efforts, or nuclear-weapons policies. Yet the West is doing the opposite.In the US, government and academic research in AI are falling behind both China and the private sector. Owing to inadequate funding, neither government agencies nor universities can compete with the salaries and computing facilities offered by the likes of Google, Meta, OpenAI, or their Chinese counterparts. Moreover, US immigration policy toward graduate students and researchers is self-defeating and nonsensical, because it forces highly talented people to leave the country at the end of their studies.Then there is the US policy on regulating Chinese access to AI-related technology. Export controls have been slow to appear, wholly inadequate, poorly staffed, easily evaded, and under-enforced. Chinese access to US AI technologies through services and licensing agreements has remained nearly unregulated, even when the underlying technologies, such as Nvidia processors, are themselves subject to export controls. The US announced stricter licensing rules just a week before former president Joe Biden left office.Finally, US policy ignores the fact that AI R&D must be strongly supported, used, and, where necessary, regulated throughout the private sector, the government, and the military. The US still has no AI or IT equivalent of the Department of Energy, the National Institutes of Health, Nasa, or the national laboratories that conduct (and tightly control) US nuclear-weapons R&D.This situation is partly the result of sclerotic government bureaucracies in both the European Union and the US. The EU technology sector is severely overregulated, and the US Departments of Defence and Commerce, among other agencies, need reform.Here, the tech industry is somewhat justified in criticising their governments. But the industry itself is not blameless: Over time, lobbying efforts and revolving-door personnel appointments have weakened the capabilities of critically important public institutions. Many of the problems with US policy reflect the industry’s own resistance or neglect. In critical ways, it has been its own worst enemy, as well as the enemy of the West’s long-term security.For example, ASML (the Dutch maker of state-of-the-art lithography machines used in chip manufacturing) and the US-based semiconductor-equipment supplier Applied Materials both lobbied to weaken export controls on semiconductor capital equipment, thus assisting China in its effort to displace TSMC, Nvidia, and Intel. Not to be outdone, Nvidia designed special chips for the Chinese market that performed just slightly below the threshold set by export restrictions; these were then used to train DeepSeek-R1. And at the level of AI models, Meta and the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz have lobbied fiercely to prevent any limits on open-source products.At least in public, the industry’s line has been: “The government is hopeless, but if you leave us alone, everything will be fine.” Yet things are not fine. China has nearly caught up with the US, and it is already ahead of Europe. Moreover, the US government is not hopeless, and must be enlisted to help. Historically, federal and academic R&D compare very favourably with private-sector efforts.The Internet, after all, was pioneered by the US Advanced Research Projects Agency (now DARPA), and the World Wide Web emerged from the European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN). Netscape co-founder Marc Andreessen created the first web browser at a federally funded supercomputer centre within a public university. Meanwhile, private industry gave us online services like CompuServe, Prodigy, and AOL (America Online) – centralised, closed, mutually incompatible walled gardens that were justly obliterated when the Internet was opened to commercial use.The challenges of AI R&D and China’s rise require a forceful, serious response. Where government capacity falls short, we need to bolster it; not destroy it. We need to pay competitive salaries for government and academic work; modernise US (and EU) technology infrastructure and procedures; create robust R&D capacity within the government, particularly for military applications; strengthen academic research; and implement rational policies for immigration, AI R&D funding, safety testing, and export controls.The one truly difficult policy problem is openness, particularly open-source licensing. We cannot let everyone have access to models optimised for hunter-killer drone attacks; nor, however, can we stamp “top secret” on every model. We need to find a pragmatic middle ground, perhaps relying on national defence research laboratories and carefully crafted export controls for intermediate cases. Above all, we need the AI industry to realise that if we don’t hang together, we will hang separately. — Project Syndicate* Charles Ferguson, a technology investor and policy analyst, directed the Oscar-winning documentary Inside Job.

A new study, which has found that Covid-19, caused by the Sars-CoV-2 virus is linked to accelerated plaque buildup in the coronary arteries, increasing the risk of heart-related complications, has brought back grim memories of the pandemic. The findings were published last week in Radiology, the journal of the Radiological Society of North America. “Covid-19, caused by Sars-CoV-2, is initially characterised by acute lung injury and respiratory failure,” explained the study’s senior author, Junbo Ge, MD, professor and director of the Cardiology Department at Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University in Shanghai, China. “However, emerging evidence indicates Covid-19 also involves an extreme inflammatory response that can affect the cardiovascular system.”Dr Ge noted that this inflammation continues beyond the first month of infection, raising the risk of severe cardiovascular issues and even death. To understand this impact, researchers used coronary CT angiography (CCTA) to examine changes in the tissue surrounding the coronary arteries. They analysed signs of inflammation, plaque buildup, and the presence of high-risk arterial blockages. The retrospective study included patients who underwent CCTA between September 2018 and October 2023. The final study group of 803 patients (mean age, 63.9 years, 543 men) included 329 patients (41%) imaged before the Covid-19 pandemic and 474 patients imaged during the pandemic. Of those, 25 patients were infected with Sars-CoV-2 before imaging.The research team analysed a total of 2,588 coronary artery lesions, including 2,108 lesions among Sars-CoV-2 patients and 480 lesions among uninfected patients. For all patients, researchers compared baseline and follow-up measurements of plaque volume changes, the presence of high-risk plaque, and inflammation. They also analysed the relationship between Sars-CoV-2 and cardiovascular events, such as a heart attack or revascularisation procedure. At baseline, the mean stenosis, or narrowing of the artery, per lesion was 31.3%. Only 8.1% of lesions had diameter stenosis of 50% or more. Compared to the uninfected patients, the plaque volumes grew faster in Sars-CoV-2 patients. Lesions in patients with Sars-CoV-2 infection had a higher incidence of developing into high-risk plaques (20.1% versus 15.8%) and coronary inflammation (27% versus 19.9%). Patients with Covid-19 also had a higher risk of target lesion failure (10.4% versus 3.1%), an indicator of increased heart attack or stroke risk.“Inflammation following Covid-19 can lead to ongoing plaque growth, particularly in high-risk, noncalcified plaques.” Dr Ge said. “Patients with Sars-CoV-2 infection are at increased risk for myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, and stroke for up to a year.” He added that these effects persist during the aftermath of Covid-19, regardless of comorbidities such as age, hypertension, and diabetes. “Effective management strategies for these patients are imperative,” Dr Ge said.The findings suggest that Sars-CoV-2 infection may exacerbate cardiovascular risk by accelerating the progression of susceptible plaques and coronary inflammation. However, a more comprehensive understanding of the biological mechanisms is required to formulate preventative and therapeutic approaches. “It’s crucial to anticipate a heavier cardiovascular patient burden in the future as most infected individuals recover from acute Sars-CoV-2 infection,” Dr Ge added.Incidentally, a US National Institutes of Health-funded study, which focused on the original Sars-CoV-2 strain and featuring unvaccinated participants during the pandemic, and published in October 2024, had revealed that the first wave of Covid-19 increased risk of heart attack, stroke up to three years later. The findings, among people with or without heart disease, had confirmed previous research showing an associated higher risk of cardiovascular events after a Covid-19 infection but were the first to suggest the heightened risk might last up to three years following initial infection, at least among people infected in the first wave of the pandemic. Compared to people with no Covid-19 history, the study found those who developed Covid-19 early in the pandemic had double the risk for cardiovascular events, while those with severe cases had nearly four times the risk. The findings were published in the journal *Arteriosclerosis, Thrombosis, and Vascular Biology.

Cartoon