Opinion

Already on a long winning spree, capital has just scored another big victory in a clash over the ethics of artificial intelligence. In the drama over OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s sudden firing and rehiring, a non-profit company with a mission to prioritise AI safety over profits has failed spectacularly to keep its for-profit offspring on a leash.OpenAI, Inc. was founded in 2015 with the goal of ensuring that artificial general intelligence – autonomous systems that can outperform humans in all or most tasks – does not become uncontrollable, if and when it is ever achieved. AGI’s potential raises the same dilemma that Mary Shelley introduced in Frankenstein. Our creation might destroy us, but who can stop anyone from pursuing the fame, power, and wealth that “success” would confer? The Altman saga offers one answer: We cannot count on ethical rules, corporate-governance structures, or even principled governing board members to keep us safe. They tried, much to their credit, but it wasn’t enough.Originally, OpenAI, Inc. sought to raise enough funds through donations to compete in a fast-developing and highly competitive domain. But with only $130mn generated in three years, it fell far short of its $1bn goal. It would need to turn to private capital while trying to preserve its original mission within an elaborate governance structure.That meant creating two for-profit subsidiaries, with one wholly owned LLC serving as the general (managing) partner of its sibling within a limited partnership. Since limited partners do not have voting rights, OpenAI, Inc. exercised all control over the partnership, at least in theory. The limited partner then established its own LLC, OpenAI Global LLC, to attract private capital, including a $13bn investment from Microsoft, which did not wield formal control rights. Finally, the original mission was secured by appointing several board members from the original non-profit to serve doubly as employees of OpenAI Global LLC, including Altman as chief executive.What could possibly go wrong? Everything, as it turned out. When the board decided to fire the CEO of its sub-subsidiary – apparently for what a majority of its members saw as conflicts between his ambitions and the company’s mission – the entire structure collapsed. Microsoft swooped in and offered to hire Altman and anyone willing to join him. That put OpenAI’s financial future at risk. As it had warned in its operating agreement, “Investing in OpenAI Global, LLC is a high-risk investment. Investors could lose their capital contribution and not see any return.”That warning was no deterrent for Microsoft, which was less interested in dividends than in OpenAI’s products and the people developing them. Though Altman has since been reinstated at OpenAI, together with a new board that seems more likely to do his bidding, it is safe to assume that Microsoft will be the one ultimately calling the shots. After all, Altman owes Microsoft his job and the future of the company he runs. For all the media coverage that this drama generated, it does not represent anything new. Historically, capital usually wins out when there are competing visions for the future of an innovative product or business model.Consider all the ambitious promises that private companies have made to address climate change (presumably in the hope of avoiding regulation or worse). In 2022, Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, predicted a “tectonic shift” toward sustainable investment strategies. But he soon changed his tune. Having since downgraded climate change from an investment strategy to a mere risk factor, BlackRock now prides itself on ensuring “corporate sustainability.” If the board of a non-profit with a firm commitment (in writing) to AI safety could not protect the world from its own CEO, we should not bet on the CEO of a for-profit asset manager to save us from climate change.Likewise, consider the even longer-running saga of broken promises for the sake of profits in private money-creation. Money is all about credit, but there is a difference between mutualised credit, or state money, and privatised credit, or private money. Most money in circulation is private money, which includes bank deposits, credit cards, and much more. Private money owes its success to state money. Without the state’s willingness to maintain central banks to ensure the stability of financial markets, those markets and the intermediaries populating them would fail frequently, bringing the real economy down with them. States and banks are the oldest example of “public-private partnerships,” promising to benefit bankers and society alike.But winners like to take all, and banks are no exception. — Project Syndicate

Since the establishment of the distinguished Qatari-German relations, both countries have demonstrated a mutual commitment to developing and enhancing their growing friendship and co-operation. Within the framework of continuing this commitment, President of the friendly Federal Republic of Germany, Dr Frank-Walter Steinmeier, visited Qatar yesterday.His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani welcomed the German president at the Amiri Diwan to discuss bilateral relations and explore ways to support and develop them in various areas, particularly in the trade, economic, and investment fields, and reviewed regional and international issues of mutual interest.This visit provided an opportunity to further advance, strengthen, and broaden the relations between Doha and Berlin, serving their common goals and the aspirations of their friendly people. The visit and the talks enhanced bilateral partnership opportunities, opened new horizons for co-operation, especially in the energy, economic, and investment sectors, explored wider opportunities, and strengthened the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries in a way that benefits both nations and their peoples in all areas.The diplomatic relations between Qatar and the Federal Republic of Germany were established in 1973. Qatar is considered a key partner for Germany in the Middle East and North Africa region, based on over 60 years of trade relations and nearly half a century of political and diplomatic ties, which have positively impacted the people of both nations. The Qatari-German relationship is based on solid foundations of trust, mutual respect, and joint interests. These strategic relations, supported by close co-operation, have been strengthened further in recent years in light of Qatar’s expanded political role, represented in its mediation efforts in regional and international conflicts. There is ongoing dialogue and constant consultation between the two sides regarding political co-ordination on regional issues and urgent international files.The two countries are linked by several economic agreements and memorandums of understanding (MoUs), including the agreement on the mutual protection and promotion of investments, and others in the fields of industry, trade, health, culture, sports, archaeology, solar energy, civil aviation, and air transport.There is also the agreement to establish a joint committee for trade, economic, and technical co-operation, which has organised numerous sessions over the years.In May, Qatar and Germany signed an MoU to establish a strategic dialogue between the two countries, providing an important platform for discussing energy issues and co-operation. The Qatari-German relationship is expected to witness a new impetus and broader horizons, given the momentum from high-level visits between Doha and Berlin — notably, HH the Amir’s visit to Germany in October, HH the Amir’s working visit to Germany in May 2022, and the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to Doha in September of last year.During these visits, the two sides discussed relations and ways to enhance them in all aspects. The two countries also signed a Joint Declaration of Intent to enhance co-operation in the energy field within the framework of a successful and ongoing dialogue between Qatar and Germany. This co-operation is expected to develop into an energy partnership by building trade relations in the field of liquefied natural gas (LNG) that serve the interests of both countries and achieve their climate action ambitions. This partnership is anticipated to diversify Germany’s energy supply through LNG imports from Qatar, while facilitating bilateral co-operation in hydrogen energy and renewable energy sources.In November last year, QatarEnergy signed two long-term LNG sale and purchase agreements (SPAs) between QatarEnergy and ConocoPhillips affiliates in Doha for the delivery of up to 2mn tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG from Qatar to Germany. According to the agreement, a ConocoPhillips wholly-owned subsidiary will purchase the agreed quantities to be delivered ex-ship to the “German LNG” receiving terminal, which is currently under development in Brunsbüttel in northern Germany, with deliveries expected to start in 2026. Germany, Europe’s largest gas market, has a significant demand in the industrial, electricity, and domestic consumption sectors.The Qatari-German economic relationship has seen steady growth over the past six decades. Qatar has emerged as a significant economic partner for Germany in the region. Germany ranks third among European countries in attracting Qatari investments, following the UK and France. Qatar is one of the largest investors in Germany, contributing around €25bn.Qatari investments cover an array of sectors including the automotive, communications, hospitality, banking, and other important sectors. In September 2022, the Qatari Ministry of Commerce and Industry signed a strategic partnership agreement with the German Association for Small and Medium Businesses, to open a representative office for the association in Qatar — the first of its kind in the Gulf region. This agreement contributes to increasing the presence of German companies in Qatar and reflects positively on the movement of trade and investment and the establishment of fruitful partnerships between the business sectors in both countries.Over 300 German companies contribute to Qatar’s economic development, operating in vital sectors such as energy, construction, services, railway development, trade, contracting, communications, and medical equipment, among others.Qatar holds significant stakes in major German commercial and banking groups and is considered the largest shareholder in the automotive giant Volkswagen Group, with an investment of $9bn. Qatar’s investments are not limited to the industrial and technology sectors. They also extend to the shipping sector, investing in Hapag-Lloyd, one of the world’s largest shipping companies, and in Hochtief, the largest construction company in Germany, which operates globally. Additionally, Qatar invests in RWE AG (RWE), one of the world’s largest renewable energy producers, with a total value of €2.4bn.The trade volume between Qatar and Germany exceeded $2bn in 2022. Recently, there has been an increased frequency of German trade delegations visiting Doha, reflecting the German private sector’s interest in exploring investment opportunities in Qatar and forming alliances with Qatari companies in various fields, including energy and manufacturing.To attract foreign investments, Qatar, aligned with its National Vision 2030, has created a conducive investment climate through a series of laws and legislation that attract investment, coupled with the country’s political and social stability, strong and balanced relationships with all parties, as well as its strategic geographic location as a major commercial gateway connecting East and West. Furthermore, Qatar’s advanced digital infrastructure ensures smooth trade and capital flow for international investors, facilitated by its large commercial port and airline routes connecting it to major cities and global trade routes.Germany, with an area of over 357,000 square kilometres, is a highly industrial exporting country, deeply integrated into the global economy. It boasts strong export sectors and is one of the world’s most developed and best-performing industrial countries. Germany is the fourth-largest economy globally, following the United States, Japan, and China, and is the largest and most important market in the European Union (EU), with a population exceeding 82mn.Germany shares extensive borders with nine other countries, eight of which are EU members. Its economy is centred on industrial products and services, with German machinery, automobiles, and chemical products enjoying a distinguished global reputation. Due to its significant export orientation, Germany is highly interconnected with the global economy. Exports of goods and services contribute to over a quarter of Germany’s GDP, with more than one-fifth of jobs dependent on exports.In 2009, with its export volume of $1,121bn, Germany ranked second in the world after China. Asia represents the second most important market for German products, with China being its most crucial trading partner. Since 1999, Germany has been the largest European investor in China, with approximately 2,500 German companies investing in various Chinese sectors. (QNA)QNADoha

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Faced with many differences between its member states, the European Union has sought to refine its concept of strategic autonomy over the past few years. Now, Spain intends to use its EU Council presidency to bring greater coherence and substance to this debate. If it succeeds, Europe will have taken a significant step toward deeper integration.The concept of strategic autonomy has already evolved considerably. Originating in the defence sphere, it first appeared in an official EU document in 2013. It then became a foreign-policy principle in the EU’s 2016 Global Strategy, before finally extending to the economic realm with the bloc’s new commitment to “open strategic autonomy” in 2020.The basic idea is that Europeans must be able to live by their own laws and defend their interests without foreign interference (or assistance). Yet given the EU’s co-operative nature, consensus-based decision-making, and deep economic ties to the rest of the world, external action must strike a delicate balance. It must be multilateral when possible, but unilateral when necessary.Between the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the intensifying Sino-American rivalry, and the return of industrial policy, the EU has ample reason to re-examine its relationship with the rest of the world, and to embed open strategic autonomy within a new economic-security paradigm. Europeans have awoken to the fact that interdependence is a source not only of security and prosperity, but also of potential vulnerability.To chart a course forward, the Spanish EU Council presidency has produced “Resilient EU2030: A future-oriented approach to reinforce the EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy and Global Leadership,” a roadmap that makes five positive contributions to this debate.First, the process that produced the roadmap is to be commended, since it relied on the perspectives of all 27 member states (plus the European Commission), even on controversial matters such as the principle that EU industrial policy should follow a predominantly European logic.Second, Resilient EU2030 offers a welcome dose of both realism and optimism. It contains not just a candid assessment of the EU’s vulnerabilities, but also constructive proposals to overcome them.Third, the roadmap rightly emphasises the importance of openness and international co-operation. The EU must remain firm in its determination not to close itself off from the world. Decoupling from China, especially, is infeasible and would prove very costly if tried.Fourth, the document boasts a great deal of substance, with detailed chapters on how to implement specific, original policy recommendations in the fields of health, food, digital technology, and energy. It also offers good arguments for how the EU can become greener and more competitive while remaining open.Finally, Resilient EU2030 wisely acknowledges that the international order needs to be reformed, not merely protected or preserved, and that Europe can play a leading role in that process, while also including the Global South.Like any ambitious strategy document, however, this one has some shortcomings. For starters, any effort to map out future scenarios must assign a defining role to volatility, uncertainty, and risk. Today’s world is marked by increased political polarisation and fragmentation, both internationally and domestically. Policy responses therefore should focus on adaptability and contingencies, and they must include “offensive” economic-security tools (such as sanctions) in addition to defensive ones.Second, though Resilient EU2030 includes a detailed look at goods dependencies (referencing 323 specific products), it pays far less attention to services. Yet it is services (and platforms) that will shape the evolution of the global economy. That means the EU’s single market in services will be a crucial factor in its own future competitiveness. If recent experience has taught us anything, it is that comprehensive economic relationships comprising goods, services, and investments can be weaponised as easily as those that are defined more narrowly.Third, the text places too much faith in the EU’s alliances with likeminded countries. Individual member-state preferences are always subject to political change, and many potential partners – such as Brazil and India – are already not aligned with the EU on vitally important issues such as the war in Ukraine. Instead of focusing on apparent like-mindedness, the EU should pursue different kinds of relationships in the interest of diversification.Fourth, although the synergies and trade-offs associated with strategic autonomy are briefly mentioned, they warrant closer consideration. The EU must ensure that there is adequate buy-in from citizens for the inevitably painful changes that are needed.Lastly, the EU should consider how it can more proactively pursue economic security through strengthened economic performance. That means exploring how common resources might be used to support investments in major transitions – from decarbonisation to digitalisation – and in managing demographic changes and new security threats.Overall, Resilient EU2030 provides a nuanced and balanced vision of how to strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy. It avoids the pitfall of viewing the EU’s reindustrialisation as a silver bullet, and it presents more targeted measures than previous EU strategy papers have done. It acknowledges that there is no “one-size-fits-all” solution – since different vulnerabilities require different responses – and it correctly emphasises the role of circularity in increasing the EU’s resilience. EU policymakers now have a suite of bold and interesting proposals for encouraging citizens and firms to be more responsible in resource usage.The Spanish EU Council presidency has put meat on the bones of open strategic autonomy, and offered a blueprint for translating the concept into concrete policies. With Resilient EU2030, policymakers and publics alike have a chance to engage with this crucial issue in the run-up to next year’s European Parliament elections.This commentary is co-signed by Michele Chang (College of Europe), Elvire Fabry (Jacques Delors Institute), Rem Korteweg (Clingendael Institute), Justyna Szczudlik (Polish Institute of International Affairs), and Fabian Zuleeg (European Policy Centre). — Project Syndicatel Charles Powell is Director of the Elcano Royal Institute.l Nathalie Tocci is Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali.l Guntram Wolff is Director and CEO of the German Council on Foreign Relations.

OpenAI transformed how the public thinks about artificial intelligence (AI) a year ago with the launch of its hugely successful chatbot, ChatGPT, which has currently 100mn active users.But the expulsion and swift reinstatement of Sam Altman as the leader of OpenAI, the AI startup he co-founded, was the culmination of a long-brewing clash of diverging worldviews that was masked by the company’s startling success.On one side were the commercial ambitions of Altman and OpenAI’s major partner, Microsoft.On the other were board members who had concerns that AI could one day wipe out humanity.That worry is one driver of the effective altruism movement, which has become an influential force within Silicon Valley and the AI industry.Effective altruism is a movement that aims to use research and reasoning to solve the most pressing global problems for the benefit of the maximum number of people. It reflects the ideas of Peter Singer, a moral philosopher and professor of bioethics at Princeton University, who argues that people should spend their resources saving as many lives as possible, especially in parts of the world where a life can be saved for a relatively low cost.Over the past decade, effective altruism has broadened its mission toward preventing future scenarios in which humans could go extinct, such as nuclear war and pandemics.Also on that list: an AI apocalypse.The notion spawned the field of AI safety, which aims to prevent disastrous outcomes from the work of building AI.AI safety was embraced as an important cause by big-name Silicon Valley figures who believe in effective altruism, including Peter Thiel, Elon Musk and Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of crypto exchange FTX, who was convicted in early November of a massive fraud.Founded with a mission to “ensure that AI benefits all of humanity,” OpenAI was supposed to be a counterweight to the profit-driven efforts within labs of technology giants. Members of OpenAI’s governing board had ties, both past and present, to the effective altruism movement.The startup began as a nonprofit organisation but added a for-profit subsidiary so that it could raise the vast amounts of money it needed to operate the technology that fuels ChatGPT and DALL-E.OpenAI attracted billions of dollars from Microsoft and, as of October, pinned its value at $86bn. That led to tension between OpenAI’s commercial ambitions — driven by Altman and Microsoft — and worries from some board members about pushing AI development too fast.For Microsoft - which holds a roughly 49% stake - OpenAI is the key to its AI strategy.In a wider sense, OpenAI’s turmoil reflects the bigger debate over AI with the schism over the pace of commercialisation.The problematic has played out in several other arenas.Google, for instance, has long advocated a slow and cautious AI approach, which made it look like a laggard when OpenAI made a splash with ChatGPT, despite more than a decade of investment and research into AI.Artificial intelligence is the subject of regulatory reviews and consideration worldwide, with the UK recently organising an international conference to discuss proper approaches to its adoption. Private companies and governmental bodies are in the process of negotiating how to mitigate the potential harms without stifling innovation.The rampant euphoria over AI, as well as Altman’s dramatic ouster and swift return, has again problematised the good-vs-bad tech debate.While sustainable profitability is prerequisite for any industry to thrive, excessive commercialisation needs to be kept at check so that technology can help make the world a better place.OpenAI, which began as a nonprofit, has attracted billions of dollars from Microsoft and, as of October, pinned its value at $86bn

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Cyprus President Dr Nikos Christodoulides’ visit to Doha came as part of Qatar’s keenness to build bridges and enhance openness and co-operation with various countries and peoples.His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and President Christodoulides discussed bilateral relations and their prospects, in addition to issues of common interest.The discussions broaden horizons for strengthening, developing and advancing relations between the two countries in various fields.Qatar and Cyprus have strong, long-term friendly relations based on mutual respect and shared visions on many international and regional issues, as well as the shared desire of the leaderships of the two countries to raise the level of bilateral co-operation in various fields.Diplomatic relations between Doha and Nicosia were established in 2001. They culminated in the opening of resident embassies in the capitals of the two countries. The embassy of Cyprus was opened in Doha in 2004, while the Qatari embassy was opened in Nicosia in 2007, as the first Gulf embassy in Cyprus.Since that time, relations between the two countries have witnessed rapid development in all fields, especially in reconstruction and gas. These relations also provides abundant opportunities that add to the Qatari economy an active and extremely important base station in the middle of the Mediterranean, as Qatar is always keen to expand the circle of its international relations and diversify the fields and locations of foreign investments, as well as build bridges of constructive and fruitful co-operation with all peoples and countries of the world.There are a number of agreements that regulate relations between Qatar and Cyprus and cover political, economic, commercial, technical, educational, legal, health, and tourism co-operation and in the field of energy and seawater desalination, in addition to the banking and financial sector, encouraging and protecting mutual investments and air transport, avoiding double taxation and preventing financial evasion with regard to income taxes.Relations between Doha and Nicosia have been strengthened through mutual visits at various levels, the most important of which was the visit of His Highness the Father Amir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani to Cyprus in 2010, which resulted in the strengthening and development of bilateral relations and the signing of a number of important agreements between the two countries. In 2009, former president of Cyprus Demetris Christofias visited Doha while former president Nicos Anastasiades visited in 2014, heading a high-level official and commercial delegation, which included a number of ministers and more than 60 businessmen and representatives of major national and private companies in Cyprus.In the context of that visit, former president Christofias highlighted the importance that his country attaches to enhancing and strengthening its economic relations with Qatar.He expressed his happiness that it was confirmed during an expanded session with His Highness the Amir, that they shared the common goal of strengthening and expanding co-operation between Doha and Nicosia, especially in the economic field, in order to inaugurate a new era of prosperity between the two countries.He stated that there are promising opportunities for growth in many other sectors in Cyprus, including maritime transport, tourism, large-scale development projects, education, health, research and renewable energy, noting that all of these sectors were discussed during the official meetings with the Amir.In an indication of the prominence of Qatari-Cypriot relations, former president Anastasiades witnessed the opening ceremony of the new Qatari embassy building in Nicosia, in December 2021. During the opening ceremony, an official announcement was made that the name of the street on which the embassy building was located in will be changed to Qatar Street while the park adjacent to the embassy building was called Doha Park.In a speech on this occasion, he said that the political and economic relations between Cyprus and Qatar witnessed important development and continuous growth over the past years.Cyprus is located in the eastern Mediterranean basin and is the third largest island in it after Sicily and Sardinia. Its area is 9,251sq km, and its population is more than 1.244mn people. It enjoys a strategic location between the European, Asian and African continents. Its membership in the European Union makes it a gateway to a variety of activities in many commercial, touristic and economic fields. Cyprus is classified as a high-income country and occupies 16th place in per capita income in the world. Cyprus’ economic performance is considered one of the best among many economies of the European Union countries.The Cypriot economy is based mainly on tourism and services. About three-quarters of Cypriots work in the services field, while the agricultural sector employs 5% of the workforce. There are promising opportunities for growth in many other sectors on the island, including oil and gas, maritime transport, tourism, With large-scale development projects, education, health, research and renewable energy, the government aims to maintain Cyprus’ reputation as a reliable financial centre and attractive investment destination.It is estimated that the contribution of the technology sector to the Cypriot economy amounted to 3bn euros last year, through more than 1,200 foreign companies. Shipping is one of the most important pillars of the Cypriot economy and has contributed significantly to its GDP over the years. The island is considered the largest ship management centre in Europe and one of the largest in the world. It also has a major maritime group of more than 250 shipping companies offering a wide range of shipping-related activities such as ship management, chartering and marine insurance.

The central bank governors of Poland and Hungary are caught up in noisy disputes with opponents over their rate-setting policy, raising new hazards for investors willing to brave central Europe’s bitterly polarised politics.In Poland, governor Adam Glapinski stands accused of having tried to boost the economy with rate cuts to help his longtime allies in the Law and Justice (PiS) party secure a new term in last month’s elections — unsuccessfully, as it turned out.In Hungary, central bank governor Gyorgy Matolcsy is under pressure from Viktor Orban’s government to cut rates further ahead of local and European Parliament elections next year.The rows come against a backdrop of regional inflation that remains markedly higher than that in western Europe, driven up by structural factors like very tight labour markets but also repeated patterns of pre-election stimulus in recent years.Regional CEE assets like others around the world are being buoyed by the perception in financial markets that the US Federal Reserve has put the brake on monetary tightening, and so have been shielded from losses over the political noise so far.The election triumph of Donald Tusk’s pro-EU coalition has even sparked a rally in Polish assets. But investors and credit rating agencies are monitoring closely the pressure on local central bankers given that inflation is still way over target and unlikely to get back on track till late-2025.“The overall monetary settings and the credibility of CEE central banks have been adequate ahead of the recent shocks,” said Karen Vartapetov, Lead Analyst for Sovereign Ratings at S&P Global Ratings.“This year and next will put that credibility to the test.”A 2021 World Bank survey found that political meddling in central bank policy led to sustained periods of high inflation in emerging market economies such as Turkiye and Argentina.Investor worries about central bank independence add to long-standing criticisms about the rule of law in Poland and Hungary, which have seen billions of euros of funds suspended by the EU due to its concerns about a backsliding of democratic standards. The governments have rejected the criticisms.“Policy credibility is a negative rating sensitivity for Hungary and entrenched high inflation is incorporated in a negative sensitivity for Poland,” said Paul Gamble, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings at Fitch Ratings.The incoming Polish government cites Glapinski’s move to cut interest rates by a combined 100 bps ahead of the election but then keep them on hold after the vote as evidence he was tailoring monetary policy to the needs of his PiS allies. It is currently building a legal case that could see the governor being put before the State Tribunal.Glapinski has repeatedly denied those allegations.In response to a request to his office for comment, an NBP spokesman said officials had acted within legal mandates at all times and that moves to oust Glapinski could hit Polish assets.“Attempts to bring the president of the NBP before the State Tribunal can be directly interpreted as an attack on the independence of the central bank,” the spokesman said. The State Tribunal consists of lawyers chosen by the lower house of parliament.Local media says the body has handed down only two convictions since the collapse of communism and the procedure that could see Glapinski end up there could take months. If he is suspended, Deputy Governor Marta Kightley would take over.In Hungary, all eyes are on how Matolcsy — a former Orban ally who turned vocal critic of his economic policies — will deal with the government’s demands that rates are reduced further from 11.5%, the highest in the EU.Hungary’s central bank has cut borrowing costs by 650 bps since May, refraining from a larger cut last week despite a somewhat better inflation outlook, with price growth seen easing to 7% by December from an eye-watering 25% in the first quarter.“While there appear to be many solid reasons for accelerating the pace of rate cuts, a large proportion of foreign investors might see this as a capitulation to political pressure,” ING economist Peter Virovacz said.The bank said its base rate could fall into single digits in February, implying 75-bp cuts each over the next two months. The office of Matolcsy, whose term expires in March 2025, did not respond to questions for comment.Polish five-year bonds carried a 282 bps spread over German Bunds on Friday, while Hungarian five-year bonds carried a 437 bps spread. How those premia evolve will depend partly on how politics in Poland and Hungary is perceived by investors to influence the central banks in the months to come.“Everything else being equal, the less independent the central bank, the more real yield you need to have to be compensated for the risk,” said Arif Joshi at Lazard Asset Management. — Reuters

Qatar’s ambassador to Cyprus Ali Yousef Abdulrahman al-Mulla has underlined that the visit of President Nikos Christodoulides to Doha would bring about a qualitative shift in the strong and solid bilateral relations at all levels, in a way that serves the common goals and interests of the two friendly countries.In an interview with Qatar News Agency (QNA), the ambassador pointed out that President Christodoulides, since he was the Foreign Minister, has shown all support for Qatar’s policy and praised it at the regional and international levels, as well as its effective role in several issues, emphasising that the two countries share common visions on many regional and international issues based on the principle of dialogue and crisis resolution without any external interference and with full respect for the sovereignty of states.The ambassador described Qatar-Cyprus bilateral relations as excellent, noting that the two countries are bound by many co-operation agreements in various fields, and that the bilateral relations have grown significantly after the exchange of the opening of embassies in each other’s capitals.He highlighted the strong co-operation in the field of construction where Cypriot companies contributed to the construction of many major infrastructure projects in Qatar, most notably the construction of the Education City Stadium.He shed light on areas and features of the cultural and educational co-operation between the two countries, the most prominent of which is working to achieve full recognition between universities and institutes in the two countries; noting that Qatar recognises the University of Cyprus and the Cyprus Institute, and many intellectuals from both sides participate in seminars, exhibitions and conferences held in both countries.The ambassador highlighted the role carried out by Qatar in resolving many disputes and conflicts in different regions around the world because it is considered a trusted mediator by all parties, and because it adopts the principle of dialogue and crisis resolution without any external interference and with full respect for the sovereignty of states.Meanwhile, the ambassador of Cyprus in Doha, Nicholas Manolis, affirmed that the relations between Qatar and Cyprus are continuously developing and flourishing, pointing to the visit of President Christodoulides and his talks with His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, which will further promote and strengthen the relations between the two countries and peoples, especially at the current juncture where the region is facing crucial challenges and upheavals.He said that the energy, investment and higher education are the most prominent areas of co-operation between the two countries.Indeed, the strong and solid character of the bilateral relations is expected to be verified after the conclusion of the president’s visit and his meeting with His Highness the Amir, the ambassador said. (QNA)

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A new study from the UK which showed that adherence to healthy dietary patterns can prevent the development of non-communicable diseases and improve life expectancy is applicable to a substantial part of the world. Prospective population-based cohort data from the UK Biobank, proved that sustained dietary change from unhealthy dietary patterns to the Eatwell Guide dietary recommendations is associated with 8.9 and 8.6 years gain in life expectancy for 40-year-old males and females, respectively, Nature Food reported.In the same population, sustained dietary change from unhealthy to longevity-associated dietary patterns is associated with 10.8 and 10.4 years gain in life expectancy in males and females, respectively.The results showed that the longevity-associated dietary pattern had moderate intakes of whole grains, fruit, fish and white meat; a high intake of milk and dairy, vegetables, nuts and legumes; a relatively low intake of eggs, red meat and sugar-sweetened beverages; and a low intake of refined grains and processed meat. Analyses adjusting also for body mass index and energy showed slight reductions in inverse associations with mortality for whole grains, vegetables and fruits, reductions in positive associations with mortality for red meat, and stronger inverse associations for both nuts and white meat.For several of the food groups associated with reduced mortality, the lowest intake quintiles were substantially different from the other quintiles. The unhealthy dietary pattern (that is, the quintile with the highest mortality associations) contained no or limited amounts of whole grains, vegetables, fruits, nuts, legumes, fish, milk and dairy, and white meat and substantial intakes of processed meat, eggs, refined grains and sugar-sweetened beverages. The strongest positive associations with mortality were for sugar-sweetened beverages and processed meat, while the strongest inverse associations with mortality were for whole grains and nuts.The team, led by Lars Fadnes, a public health researcher at the University of Bergen in Norway, modelled life expectancy for some 467,354 people who documented their eating habits as part of the long-running UK Biobank study, which started in 2006. The participants were grouped based on their eating patterns, and noted how they shifted over time. They identified average and unhealthy eaters, as well as people whose food intake matched the Eatwell Guide and others who consumed a diet the researchers dubbed the longevity diet.“The bigger the changes made towards healthier dietary patterns, the larger the expected gains in life expectancy are,” the team explains in their published paper. “Unsurprisingly, predicted gains in life expectancy are lower when the dietary change is initiated at older ages, but these remain substantial.” People aged 70 years old could still extend their life expectancy by around 4 to 5 years if they made a sustained change to eating healthily, either in accordance with the Eatwell Guide or the ‘longevity diet’, the researchers found.While this new analysis looks at the UK, expanding the geographical range of such studies, the same caveats apply as with any population-level data. For example, the UK Biobank doesn’t measure consumption of rice, which is particularly important for many migrant groups, so the results won’t generalise to everyone. The pool of data in the UK Biobank also predominantly describes people of a White European, middle- to upper-class socioeconomic background. Improving food environments in schools and workplaces by removing vending machines and offering healthier options could also make a real difference to people’s health – not to mention the planet.

A shortage of experienced nature and conservation staff in Britain could threaten the country’s efforts to accelerate nature restoration and play its part in meeting global climate and biodiversity targets, according to sector insiders.Workers from government, charities and businesses told the Thomson Reuters Foundation there are crucial gaps in the labour force, with intense competition for specialists such as ecologists and hydrologists.“The productivity of the organisation is compromised because we can’t recruit or retain the sort of people that are needed,” said an industrial regulator at the government’s Environment Agency, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the issue.An August survey of more than 500 Prospect union members working in the sector, including in the Environment Agency, found that more than half identified a reduction in expert staff as one of the largest barriers to doing their work effectively.Sally Hayns, CEO of the Chartered Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management (CIEEM), said a drop-off in conservation projects — often connected with infrastructure development — following the 2008 financial crash has contributed to the shortage of staff.“Nowadays, there aren’t enough ecologists with sort of 10 years’ experience, and so they are like gold dust,” she said.Meanwhile, she said, agencies and charities struggle to compete with the wages offered by private-sector organisations, which means they are losing people, including those in senior roles with specialist expertise.A spokesperson for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said the government “is going further and faster for nature than any other” and has boosted funding for the Environment Agency and Natural England, its advisory body on conservation.Natural England’s chief officer of business management Kirsty Carter-Brown said the organisation’s headcount has grown by 40% over the past two years and it has a relatively low annual turnover of 9%. The organisation is directing more money towards staff well-being, she added.The government published an updated Environmental Improvement Plan setting out a series of bold targets at the start of 2023, including proposals to protect 30% of land and seas and raise £1bn ($1.24bn) of private finance for nature per year by 2030.That came after countries met at United Nations COP15 talks last December in Montreal to agree a global deal to protect and restore nature, as the loss of crucial biodiversity continues due to factors like deforestation, wetland drainage and pollution.Many in the sector are concerned that staffing could prove a roadblock in Britain. Insiders cite shortages in the number of consultants with experience managing conservation projects, ecologists to advise local governments, or experts to monitor water quality.This is all the more critical as Britain is set to roll out major policies like the Biodiversity Net Gain requirements for real estate in England — where new developments will need to ensure they have a net-positive impact on habitats. This will require local government to have greater access to expertise.According to job site Conservation Careers, which posts more than 15,000 jobs worldwide each year, specialist positions like senior ecological consultants are becoming harder to fill — even for big, well-known conservation organisations.“It’s a massive delivery risk for the Environmental Improvement Plan,” said Richard Benwell, chief executive of the charity Wildlife and Countryside Link.“There are shortages of skills and labour across the environment sector, not just in those government agencies,” he said.Insiders in government agencies said low pay, a cost-of-living crisis and internal job moves were responsible for a lack of experience and expertise — with some staff moving to private companies or leaving the sector for higher wages.The Prospect Survey of major government agencies and charities found that about 38% of respondents earned £30,000 or less, despite being highly skilled, and 35% between £30,000 and £40,000. It also said low pay “disproportionately affected” women.Earlier this year, Environment Agency CEO James Bevan told a parliamentary committee that some staff were using food parcels, and others were being forced to leave for financial reasons.Bevan said his organisation had been able to recruit more than 1,000 staff in the last year, but they tended to be younger people or workers from different industries who required training and would take time to deliver results.A civil servant working on policy in Defra said another problem is that gaining a promotion is not straightforward, so workers are incentivised to move across departments, leading to a high turnover within government and fewer chances to specialise.“It takes longer to do things, there’s less institutional memory, you’re working with constantly changing teams and very variable levels of experience and expertise,” he said.“You end up having the same conversations again.”Although many nature and conservation projects are implemented by non-governmental organisations — who hire the most people in this area — and the private sector, government is crucial in areas like policy-setting and project approval.“We do entirely rely on the machinery of government working for us to be able to deliver things,” said Mike Blackmore, director of operations at Wessex Rivers Trust, an environmental charity.He said a lack of specialist knowledge and experience at government agencies often causes delays in permitting, which can jeopardise projects like river ecosystem restoration that can only be done in a specific time window.Blackmore added that the 2008 crash and subsequent government austerity meant experienced people in government roles retired and were not replaced.The education system may also be contributing to the lack of experienced staff coming through the pipeline.Hayns from CIEEM said tight university budgets have made it harder to teach hands-on field work, which is time-consuming and expensive, meaning that many graduates are expected to get voluntary work experience to fill the gaps.“They’re coming out of university not necessarily with the right practical skills that employers are looking for,” she said.Hayns warned universities are being judged on how many graduates get into related, skilled employment, which means ecology-related courses are at risk.She said her organisation is looking to help universities provide short courses, and exploring how to create vocational routes into the sector, making it easier for people with transferable skills like project and financial management.A paper published last year in the Ecology and Evolution journal found that students are being given far less education on plant science compared to animals.Sebastian Stroud, a postgraduate researcher at the University of Leeds and the paper’s lead author, said more needs to be done to integrate plant teaching across the education system, as well as providing tangible experiences with nature.“If we want to protect natural environments, people need to be exposed to them,” he said. — Thomson Reuters Foundation

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Germany’s intensifying budget crisis is hitting Europe’s top economy where it hurts most: its reputation as a reliable partner for industry, some of which now fears that Berlin may not stand by its pledges to fund green and other projects.As well as tearing a €60bn ($65bn) hole in the government’s 2024 spending plans, the constitutional court ruling raises wider questions about aid for big industrial projects that were supposed to be supported with public money.These include plans by ArcelorMittal, the world’s second-largest steelmaker, to spend €2.5bn to decarbonise its German steel mills, efforts that depend on now-uncertain government support.“We are disappointed and, above all, concerned, as we still lack funding decisions and thus a perspective for our industrial production in Germany,” said Reiner Blaschek, who heads ArcelorMittal’s German division.He called the government’s inability to come up with a quick fix for the budget impasse “grossly negligent”, highlighting the potential consequences for Germany, which is already struggling to keep its place as a prime industrial location.Chancellor Olaf Scholz in a video message on Friday said the government was reworking the 2024 budget swiftly and that all necessary decisions would be taken this year.ArcelorMittal’s German rival SHS Stahl-Holding-Saar has also not received a formal commitment from Berlin to support a €3.5bn investment push to drastically cut CO2 emissions at its furnaces.Chief Executive Stefan Rauber said a solution had to be found within days, not weeks, and that he needed a decision by the end of the year to make the programme happen.“What we’re seeing here is devastating for Germany as a business location globally. And the longer it goes the worse it will get,” he said.Besides the 6 billion euros of steel investments, other sectors potentially affected by the court ruling include €4bn in the area of microelectronics and €20bn for battery cell production, according to an economy ministry paper seen by Reuters.It also covers so-called climate protection agreements that are supposed to help industry protect itself against power price swings, the paper said. Those have previously been estimated at €68bn.Germany has long been criticised for insufficient investment in key economic infrastructure — the IMF this year repeated a call for Berlin to create more fiscal room for investing in the country’s future.Critics say its constitutionally enshrined debt brake, which puts very strict limits on how much new debt it can take on, is a somewhat arbitrary political tool that restricts the space for those investments.The court’s decision to block the repurposing of unused funds from the pandemic for green investment has cast doubt over the fate of other off-budget funding vehicles and a cloud over future spending plans in 2024 and beyond.The comments from industry reflect broad concern it will limit Germany’s ability to stand by its funding commitments to major expansion projects including some by Intel, Taiwan’s TSMC and Infineon.Making matters worse, the budget turmoil creates a fresh layer of problems when Germany is already fighting for investment with locations in Asia and the United States, and faces the risk of big industrial players moving sites abroad.The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has provided companies with clear regulatory frameworks, including in the nascent field of hydrogen, which is key for Germany’s efforts to make its industry carbon neutral.“If there’s an impression ... that it is unsafe to walk this path with German companies ... then plant manufacturers will look to the IRA and other projects in the USA, simply because investment security is there,” said Bernhard Osburg, CEO of Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe.While there are concerns over what the budget hole means for projects in the short-term, fears are growing that it could weaken Germany’s ability to co-sponsor the longer-term transformation of its industries.Some worry that plans to lower power prices for industry, a key effort to keep chemicals heavyweights such as BASF and Wacker Chemie competitive, could be derailed, too.“Important industries in Germany, such as chemicals or steel production, need economical energy prices,” Oliver Blume, CEO of Europe’s top carmaker Volkswagen, told Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.“We are currently not competitive on a global scale.” — Reuters

As Artificial Intelligence continues to seep into various aspects of human life, data protection has become a hot button topic for individuals, businesses, and governments around the world. One of the biggest questions to emerge in this debate is, ‘how can we ensure private sector players – tech giants that are leading on AI system development – are safeguarding us against the potential dangers of this technology?With global research pointing to issues like algorithmic bias against certain minorities and ethnic groups, governments globally are engaging in dialogue with AI leaders to ensure that user safety and protection remain at the core of this AI-focused tech development. Of course, these concerns extend to the education landscape where education systems are increasingly turning to AI-powered platforms, for instance to gather student data and develop content. There is a pressing need to assess the role and effectiveness of government-led policies in protecting this data around essentially very vulnerable groups – young learners – from being exposed to third parties without consent.While we know that data protection laws are in place globally, there is undoubtedly scope for improvement – particularly in the face of lingering threats like data leaks and cyberattacks. These examples of data breaches underscore larger concerns: ‘is it enough to rely on existing policies to preserve sensitive information? What more can be done to protect users?’ At a ground-level, tackling these issues will require governments to actively participate in and share input with developers during the decision-making of AI building.Essentially, a robust public-private partnership model that involves collaboration between EdTech innovation sectors and governmental authorities will be key in achieving common goals and objectives. It is now essential for governments to play a larger part in the development of innovation ecosystems, not just in terms of monetary investment, but also within policy development so that new technologies not only meet the need of the end user, but are also built in a way that protects their data and interests. Innovation ecosystems will come to rely more and more on these types of lateral partnership models in order to grow. For instance, it is likely that we’ll see a greater number of non-tech private players becoming involved in pinpointing the types of skills EdTech providers should be focused on developing, if we are to see higher rates of economic growth globally.The topic of bridging important skills gaps is inherent in any discussion related to innovation and access to quality education. For example, Africa, the world’s second-largest continent, has one of the largest youth populations in the world, and yet this region remains one of the most underserved when it comes to Internet connectivity. In Sub-Saharan Africa alone, an estimated 230mn jobs will require digital skills, but without the necessary training and learning experience to ensure even basic digital literacy, we will likely see a growing disparity between the capacity of local youth, and the needs of the global market, resulting in unprecedented levels of unemployment.Therefore, if we are to really see the future of education as AI-driven, we must start first and foremost with the needs and interests of end users in mind. For example, in addition to increased government interest in this space, we have also begun to see innovation programmes being led by non-profit organisations like the World Innovation Summit for Education (WISE), an initiative of Qatar Foundation through the WISE EdTech Testbed for example, that has worked to understand the needs of teachers and students locally in Qatar in order to positively influence global policies related to EdTech. Partnering with the local education ecosystem in this way has also served to drive innovation beyond technology. Indeed, the innovation and creativity of local practitioners and school leaders has been the starting point from which WISE has begun to help government partners understand how classrooms can be made future ready.Often times when we see innovation being built, we assume that its concept begins and ends with the individual at its helm. However, when we see innovation and technology become a common good, a tool that can be leveraged for the benefit of the community, it is because there has been a collective effort to support its development. From the private sector to non-profit and government agencies, we must expect a multi-lateral approach to the development of a technology that will affect our day to day lives in the coming years.Qatar Foundation’s World Innovation Summit for Education (WISE) will host the 11th edition of its global education summit on November 28-29, bringing together global thought leaders, innovators, and government figures to review this topic among other concerns and opportunities around AI integration in education.Register and attend WISE 11 via https://wisesummit2023.org/ to explore the diverse topics under AI in education.

British finance minister Jeremy Hunt’s big tax cut surprise could help the ruling Conservatives recover some favour among voters, but it threatens to store up budget problems for whichever party wins power after the expected 2024 election.Hunt was cheered by Conservatives in parliament on Wednesday when he said he would lower social security contributions for employees by a bigger-than-expected two percentage points, along with a smaller cut for self-employed workers.Combined with his decision to make permanent the incentives for business investment announced earlier this year, Hunt’s package of tax cuts would be worth about £20bn ($25bn)a year by the 2028/29 tax year.That represented Britain’s biggest giveaway package since 1988, apart from the huge tax cut plans last year of former prime minister Liz Truss which hammered the bond market and were quickly dropped, the Resolution Foundation think tank said.The size of Wednesday’s cuts is dwarfed by the big tax increases rushed out by Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak a year ago as they moved to quell the storm unleashed by Truss.Those rises still leave Britain on course for its highest tax burden since World War Two, something the opposition Labour Party’s would-be finance minister Rachel Reeves called the fruit of “13 years of Conservative economic failure”.Labour has a roughly 20-point lead in opinion polls, with an election likely to be called in the next 12 months.Leading think tanks said the design of Wednesday’s measures taken on their own would benefit some lower earners and could improve Britain’s low levels of business investment which are a factor in holding the economy in its slow-growth mode.But the next government will find it hard to stick to the profile for the public finances implied by Hunt’s Autumn Statement plan, they said.“The giveaways announced are funded by handing whoever wins the next election implausibly large spending cuts,” Torsten Bell, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, said.Many public services in Britain have suffered deep funding cuts since the financial crisis of 2007-08 once inflation is taken into account, and the impact of the surge in price growth over the past two years will add to that squeeze.Economists at Investec said Hunt’s small £13bn of fiscal headroom — the money his own budget rules allow for more giveaways to voters or to set aside for a future downturn — depended on very tight spending controls that would cut the budget deficit to levels not seen in more than 20 years.Hunt is likely to remain under pressure from within his party to go further with more tax cuts in a final pre-election budget statement expected in March.David Jones, a former Conservative minister, welcomed the announcement as “a move in the right direction”.But how much further Hunt can go is fraught with risk.The economic growth assumptions of the Office for Budget Responsibility, which underpin Hunt’s plans, might be modest but they are more upbeat than those of the Bank of England which sees a flat economy in 2024 and 2025.That kind of stagnation would make it even harder for Hunt’s sums to add up.Paul Johnson, head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the price of the tax cuts — combined with the huge cost of servicing Britain’s £ 2.6tn debt — would be very low increases in spending on services and cuts in public investment, potentially undermining his aim of boosting growth.“There’s a material risk that those plans prove undeliverable and today’s tax cuts will not prove to be sustainable,” Johnson said. – Reuters

Ethiopia has long suffered from recurrent large-scale famines, most notably in the early 1980s, when at least 1mn people died, and millions more were displaced. This year, however, Ethiopia has become a net exporter of wheat for the first time, an extraordinary feat given its vulnerability to climate change and food-security crises.While many factors contributed to this accomplishment, it mainly reflects the central role that new technologies have played in transforming Ethiopia’s agricultural sector. By boosting crop yields and building resilience to extreme weather, these innovations have proven particularly helpful in regions facing worsening droughts and other climate risks.The Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation (TAAT) programme, established by the International Fertiliser Development Centre, has been instrumental in deploying proven and high-performance agricultural technologies at scale, with the aim of helping farmers increase the production of millet, maize, rice, wheat, and other staples. As a result of the yield-increasing performance of these technologies, the area allocated to heat-tolerant wheat varieties in Ethiopia has grown from 5,000 hectares in 2018 to more than 2.2mn hectares in 2023, putting the country on the path to food self-sufficiency.The “polycrisis” world of increasingly volatile global supply chains has accelerated the drive toward greater self-reliance. The war in Ukraine triggered a surge in food prices in Africa, with the wheat sub-index, for example, reaching a multiyear high in May 2022. Ethiopia was hit particularly hard, because it had been importing almost half of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine. Now the continent is reeling from the export ban that India, the world’s largest rice exporter, recently imposed on several varieties.Amid this challenging environment, the Ethiopian government’s remarkable ability to use technology to boost domestic production and to reduce the risks associated with over-reliance on food imports may well represent a breakthrough. Such progress, especially in a country that was an agricultural basket case for several humiliating decades, offers hope for Africa, which has been on the frontline of the climate crisis, with food insecurity often fuelling political unrest.Consider, for example, that cereal yields in Africa have stagnated to 1,589 kilograms per hectare, far below the global average of 4,153 kilograms. There are many reasons for this, but chief among them is the chronic technological deficit. The lack of agro-processing and high value-added industries is another longstanding hurdle to increasing agricultural output and productivity growth on the continent, and has also exacerbated post-harvest losses estimated at about 30-50% of total food production in Africa.Compounding the problem is the limited use of fertiliser on the continent and excessive dependence on rainfed agriculture. At around 7.6mn metric tons in 2021, fertiliser use is far lower than in East Asia (61.9mn metric tonnes) and South Asia (38.7mn metric tonnes), while the dearth of irrigation systems and other water-management tools is especially worrisome in light of the accelerating pace of global warming. These shortcomings have precipitated a rise in extreme hunger, with many communities on the continent facing the worst food crisis in 40 years.But the consequences of geopolitical upheaval and intensifying climate risks extend beyond food security to create a vicious cycle of droughts, floods, macroeconomic instability, and balance-of-payments crises across the continent. Around 85% of the food in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is imported, largely owing to the region’s weather-sensitive agriculture. The continent now spends around $75bn annually on cereal imports, depleting foreign-exchange reserves and increasing exchange-rate pressures. (Most African currencies depreciated sharply in 2022, with the Ethiopian birr growing especially weak.) This import dependence negatively affects the balance of payments, with increasingly frequent global supply shocks exacerbating the region’s vulnerability.Africa’s food-import bill is set to rise dramatically in the coming years, partly because of geopolitically induced shocks and projected population growth. But global warming will also fuel this surge. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, five of the ten countries most affected by climate change in 2019 were in SSA, where one-third of the world’s droughts occur but less than 1% of arable land is equipped with irrigation. The World Bank estimates that, if global temperatures rise to 2C above pre-industrial levels by 2050, crop production in SSA will decrease by 10%.Such a gloomy prediction may well come true. This year is on track to be the hottest on record, around 1.4C above pre-industrial average temperatures. Moreover, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue to rise at current rates, climate models predict an additional 4C of warming during this century. The need for greater investment in climate mitigation and adaptation has never been clearer.Faced with over-reliance on food imports and daunting climate forecasts, Africa must move away from the traditional rainfed model of agricultural production. Following Ethiopia’s lead, the continent should embrace technology to boost agricultural productivity and improve food security. This will require aggressive investment in precision-agriculture technologies, such as variable-rate irrigation, that maximise productivity in a resource-constrained environment.In addition to water-saving innovations, policymakers should invest in high-yield seed varieties that perform well under dry conditions and in agricultural equipment to mechanise the sector. Improved infrastructure, including solar-powered irrigation systems and digital technologies that allow farmers to access early-warning systems and improve efficiency, will also be essential.Deploying a wide range of technologies to transform Africa’s agriculture sector will address food-security concerns as well as environmental and sustainability issues. Such a move is long overdue: even though Africa is home to more than 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land, it has yet to benefit from the green revolution that has boosted yields elsewhere. The harsh realities of climate change and geopolitical upheaval may finally create sufficiently strong incentives to unlock the continent’s potential and ensure greater self-sufficiency and resilience in food production. – Project SyndicatelHippolyte Fofack, a former chief economist and director of research at the African Export-Import Bank, is a former World Bank economist, a research associate at the Harvard University Center for African Studies, and a fellow at the African Academy of Sciences.

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In the final weeks of campaigning, Argentine President-elect Javier Milei published a fabricated image depicting his Peronist rival Sergio Massa as an old-fashioned communist in military garb, his hand raised aloft in salute.The apparently AI-generated image drew some 3mn views when Milei posted it on a social media account, highlighting how the rival campaign teams used artificial intelligence technology to catch voters’ attention in a bid to sway the race.“There were troubling signs of AI use” in the election, said Darrell West, a senior fellow at the Center for Technology Innovation at the Washington-based Brookings Institution.“Campaigners used AI to deliver deceptive messages to voters, and this is a risk for any election process,” he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.Right-wing libertarian Milei won Sunday’s run-off with 56% of the vote as he tapped into voter anger with the political mainstream — including Massa’s dominant Peronist party, but both sides turned to AI during the fractious election campaign.Massa’s team distributed a series of stylised AI-generated images and videos through an unofficial Instagram account named “AI for the Homeland”.In one, the centre-left economy minister was depicted as a Roman Emperor. In others, he was shown as a boxer knocking out a rival, starring on a fake cover of New Yorker magazine and as a soldier in footage from the 1917 war film.Other AI-generated images set out to undermine and vilify Milei, portraying the wild-haired economist and his team as enraged zombies and pirates.The use of increasingly accessible AI tech in political campaigning is a global trend, tech and rights specialists say, raising concerns about the potential implications for important upcoming elections in countries including the United States, Indonesia and India next year.A slew of new “generative AI” tools such as Midjourney are making it cheap and easy to create fabricated pictures and videos.With few legal safeguards in many countries, there is growing unease about how such material could be used to mislead or confuse voters in the run-up to elections.“Around the world, these tools to create fake images are being used to try and demonise the opposition,” said West.“While it is not illegal to use AI-generated content in hardly any country, images portraying people saying things they didn’t or making stuff up clearly crosses an ethical line.”Political useMost of the AI-generated images used in the Argentine election campaign were satirical in flavour, seeking to elicit an emotional reaction from voters and spread rapidly on social media.But AI algorithms can also be trained on copious online footage to create realistic but fabricated images, voice recordings and videos — so-called deepfakes.During the recent campaign, a doctored video that appeared to show Massa using drugs circulated on social media, with existing footage manipulated to add Massa’s image and voice.It is a dangerous new frontier in fake news and disinformation, researchers say, with some calling for material containing deepfake images to carry a disclosure label saying they were generated using AI.“Now they have a tool that allows them to create things from scratch, even though it’s evident that it may be artificially generated,” West said, adding that “disclosure alone does not protect people from harm.“It is going to be a huge problem in global elections in the future as it will get increasingly harder for voters to distinguish the fake from the real,” he said.Democracy riskAs AI-generated content becomes more accessible and more convincing, social media platforms and regulators are struggling to stay ahead, said disinformation researcher Richard Kuchta, who works at Reset, a group that focuses on the technology’s impact on democracy.“It is clearly a cat and mouse game,” Kuchta said. “If you look at how misinformation works during an election, it is still pretty much the same. But ... it got massively upscaled in terms of how deceiving it can get.”He cited a case in Slovakia earlier this year, in which fact-checkers scrambled to verify faked audio recordings posted on Facebook just days before the country’s September 30 election.In the tape, a voice resembling one of the candidates appeared to be discussing how to rig the election.“Eventually, the piece was dismissed as fake, but it did a lot of harm,” Kuchta said.Meta Platforms, which owns Facebook and Instagram, said this month that from 2024 advertisers will have to disclose when AI or other digital methods are used to alter or create political, social or election related advertisements on the sites.In the United States, a bipartisan group of senators have proposed legislation to prohibit “distribution of materially deceptive AI-generated audio, images, or video relating to federal candidates in political ads or certain issue ads.”Additionally, the US Federal Election Commission wants to regulate AI-generated deepfakes in political adverts to safeguard voters against disinformation ahead of next year’s presidential election.Other countries are leading similar efforts, though no such regulatory proposals have yet been presented in Argentina.“We are still in the early stages of AI,” said Olivia Sohr, a journalist at the Argentine fact-checker NGO Chequeado, noting that most of the fake information circulated during the campaign involved fabricated newspaper headlines and false quotes attributed to a specific candidate.“AI has the potential to elevate disinformation to a new level. But for now, there are other equally effective ways that fulfil their goals without necessarily being as expensive or sophisticated.” — Thomson Reuters Foundation

Europe’s gas inventories continued to accumulate much later than usual into the autumn as exceptionally mild weather delayed the onset of the winter heating season.It was the culmination of an unusually long refill season which has left the region’s storage sites brimming with gas and eliminated fears about supply security.Total inventories across the European Union and Britain hit a post-winter minimum on March 17 and continued to increase until November 6.Stocks began rising on the second-earliest date and continued building until the 11th latest date in the last 12 years, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE).As a result, the refill season lasted for a total of 234 days in 2023 compared with an annual average of 207 days since 2012 (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, GIE, November 21).Only the refill season of 2022 lasted slightly longer, when the region was attempting to build to inventories in an emergency after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.But in contrast to 2022, when the refill started with stocks well below average, the 2023 refill started with stocks already at a record level for the end of winter.The result has been an unusually gradual refill, with stocks increasing just 2.21 terawatt-hours (TWh) per day in 2023 compared with 3.30 TWh in 2022 and an average of 2.93 TWh since 2012.Exceptionally mild weather across Northwest Europe during October and the first part of November ensured the refill continued and delayed the onset of the winter drawdown.Temperatures at Frankfurt in Germany have been above the long-term seasonal average on 42 of 51 days so far since the start of October.Frankfurt is about 17% of the way through the normal heating season and so far heating demand has been almost 38% below average.In an average heating year, Frankfurt will experience a total of around 2,161 heating degree days between July 1 and June 30.But so far, Frankfurt has experienced just 227 heating degree days, compared with a long-term seasonal average of 364.The mild, wet and windy autumn across Northwest Europe also boosted wind farm generation from the North Sea and neighbouring areas further reducing gas consumption.EU and UK gas inventories peaked at a record 1,146 TWh on November 6 which was +190 TWh (+20% or +1.97 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average.Storage sites were a remarkable 99.6% full, which was more than 10 percentage points over the 89% average for the previous ten years.The delayed end to the summer accumulation season also means an unusually late start to the winter depletion season.Record inventories combined with a late onset of depletion and continued mild and windy weather have ensured the storage surplus continues to widen.By November 19, the surplus had widened to +204 TWh (+22% or +2.07 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average.It is still very early in the winter heating season, so there is still considerable uncertainty about how much gas the region will consume and how much it will carry over to the summer 2024 refill.But based on storage changes in the last ten years, inventories are projected to be 591 TWh at the end of winter 2023/24 which would leave storage 52% full.Even a very cold winter would leave inventories of 401 TWh (35% full) while a very mild winter could leave as much as 804 TWh (70%).EU policymakers will continue to stress potential risks to gas supplies and emphasise the need for continued conservation.But the crisis of 2022/23 has passed and inventories are likely to be more than enough to cope with even the very coldest winter in 2023/24.The region’s challenge is how to cope with relatively high gas prices in the medium term if relatively inexpensive pipeline gas from Russia is permanently swapped for more expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG).Greater reliance on LNG rather than fixed pipelines also means Europe’s gas prices will increasingly be determined by weather, business cycles and policies outside its borders, especially in Asia.Europe will always be able to outbid rivals to secure sufficient volumes LNG on account of its higher income and wealth but the prices it pays will increasingly be determined elsewhere. — Reuters