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Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro’s loss of broad protections from prosecution when he stepped down on Sunday leaves him more exposed to criminal and electoral probes that could lead to his arrest or prevent him from running for office.Bolsonaro, a far-right nationalist, left Brazil for Florida on Friday after losing to leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s most fraught vote in a generation.It remains unclear how long he plans to stay in Florida, which is home to his political idol, former US president Donald Trump. Bolsonaro’s US trip insulates him from any immediate legal jeopardy in Brazil, where he is under investigation in at least four criminal probes.Beyond that, his future may hinge on the path charted by crusading Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, as well as on the political calculations of Lula, who was himself jailed by the Supreme Court in 2018.Under Brazil’s constitution, a sitting president can only be arrested if he is convicted by the Supreme Court. Once he leaves office, though, he can be tried by swifter moving lower courts.After taking office on Sunday, Lula delivered a veiled threat to Bolsonaro, whose baseless claims of fraud at last year’s presidential vote birthed a violent movement of election deniers.“We do not carry any spirit of revenge against those who tried to subjugate the nation to their personal and ideological designs, but we will guarantee the rule of law,” he said, without mentioning Bolsonaro by name. “Those who erred will answer for their errors.”Although Brazil’s judiciary is independent, in practice presidents can influence criminal probes.Bolsonaro has said he always obeyed the constitution. Frederick Wassef, the Bolsonaro family lawyer, did not respond to a message on LinkedIn.The federal police, which has investigated Bolsonaro and his allies, is subordinate to Lula’s justice ministry. The relatively independent force is now led by Andrei Rodrigues, a Lula ally who ran the leftist’s security during a campaign marked by Bolsonarista violence.From September, Lula will be able to install his own prosecutor general, who has the power to charge Bolsonaro if his cases remain with the Supreme Court. Critics accuse Augusto Aras, the current prosecutor general, of protecting Bolsonaro by refusing to bring charges against him.The four criminal probes already underway before Bolsonaro’s election loss include allegations he leaned on the federal police to protect his sons, spread known electoral falsehoods, and harboured a troll farm peddling disinformation from within his presidential office.All four are led by Moraes, who has been derided by Bolsonaro’s supporters as an unelected despot censoring free speech. A separate Moraes-led investigation into violent protests by election deniers has already yielded several arrests.The former president could find himself embroiled in Moraes’ investigations into post-election protests, which included a foiled bomb plot by a man who said he was inspired by Bolsonaro. Tatiana Stoco, a law professor at Sao Paulo’s Insper, said that outcome would be risky for Bolsonaro.“Personally, I see a higher risk of a pre-trial arrest if any evidence emerges of him being directly involved with recent anti-democratic acts,” she said. “That would likely happen if he is proven to be encouraging, promoting or financing such acts.”Bolsonaro has barely spoken publicly since his defeat. In a teary-eyed message before leaving Brazil on Friday, he said he had been quietly “working to find alternatives,” without giving further details.Bolsonaro’s silence may not shield him from blame.Without naming Bolsonaro, former Vice President Hamilton Mourao said on Saturday that his ex-boss’ silence had helped “create an atmosphere of chaos and social disintegration.”Moraes could sign an arrest warrant for Bolsonaro while he is in the United States, which legal experts said was unlikely but not impossible.Brazilian law enforcement probably needs more time to collate evidence against Bolsonaro, constitutional lawyer Camilo Onoda Caldas said, adding things could speed up if Bolsonaro adopted an aggressive tone while in the United States.“One of the central motivations for Bolsonaro to stay in power was to protect himself and his children,” Caldas said. “Since he is no longer president and is much more vulnerable, he must adopt a much more defensive posture.”Even if Moraes were to issue an arrest warrant, experts said an eventual extradition back to Brazil could take years, with no guarantee that US courts would share the Brazilian judiciary’s view that Bolsonaro’s alleged crimes are extraditable.“Political crimes are usually pretty hard to pursue via extradition,” said John Feeley, who was the US ambassador to Panama from 2016-2018 when the Central American nation sought the extradition of its former President Ricardo Martinelli.Instead, Feeley said, Moraes might prefer to wait for Bolsonaro to return to Brazil and go after him on arrival: “He can’t stay in Florida forever.”Bolsonaro also faces 12 requests for investigation at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for baseless claims Brazil’s electoral system is liable to fraud, as well as alleged abuses of power for granting economic benefits to win votes.If the TSE upholds those accusations, Bolsonaro could be declared ineligible for elected office.Experts said Lula will likely tread carefully for fear of turning Bolsonaro into a martyr. Appeasing his fans and co-opting his allies may be the best way to neutralise his threat. — Reuters

The rate of ground-breaking scientific discoveries and technological innovation is slowing down despite an ever-growing amount of knowledge, according to an analysis released the other day of millions of research papers and patents.While previous research has shown downturns in individual disciplines, the study is the first that “emphatically, convincingly documents this decline of disruptiveness across all major fields of science and technology,” lead author Michael Park told AFP.Park, a doctoral student at the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management, called disruptive discoveries those that “break away from existing ideas” and “push the whole scientific field into new territory.”The researchers gave a “disruptiveness score” to 45mn scientific papers dating from 1945-2010, and to 3.9mn US-based patents from 1976-2010.From the start of those time ranges, research papers and patents have been increasingly likely to consolidate or build upon previous knowledge, according to results published in the journal Nature.The ranking was based on how the papers were cited in other studies five years after publication, assuming that the more disruptive the research was, the less its predecessors would be cited.The biggest decrease in disruptive research came in physical sciences such as physics and chemistry.“The nature of research is shifting” as incremental innovations become more common, senior study author Russell Funk said.One theory for the decline is that all the “low-hanging fruit” of science has already been plucked.If that were the case, disruptiveness in various scientific fields would have fallen at different speeds, Park said.But instead “the declines are pretty consistent in their speeds and timing across all major fields,” Park said, indicating that the low-hanging fruit theory is not likely to be the culprit.Instead, the researchers pointed to what has been dubbed “the burden of research,” which suggests there is now so much that scientists must learn to master a particular field they have little time left to push boundaries.This causes scientists and inventors to “focus on a narrow slice of the existing knowledge, leading them to just come up with something more consolidating rather than disruptive,” Park said.Another reason could be that “there’s increasing pressure in academia to publish, publish, publish, because that’s the metric that academics are assessed on,” he added.The researchers called on universities and funding agencies to focus more on quality, rather than quantity, and consider full subsidies for year-long sabbaticals to allow academics to read and think more deeply.“We’re not getting any less innovative as a species,” Park emphasised, pointing to recent breakthroughs such as the use of mRNA technology in Covid-19 vaccines, or the measurement of gravity waves in 2015.Jerome Lamy, a historian and expert in the sociology of science at France’s CNRS research agency, who was not involved in the research, said it showed that “ultra-specialisation” and the pressure to publish had increased over the years.He blamed a global trend of academics being “forced to slice up their papers” to increase their number of publications, saying it had led to “a dulling of research.” — AFP

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The American baseball player Lawrence “Yogi” Berra is widely quoted as observing, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Whether or not he actually said it, the point is valid. Nevertheless, here are ten predictions for the world for the year that has just got underway.First, the war in Ukraine, the dominant issue of 2022, will continue, albeit at a less intense level. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will be able to achieve a complete military victory, if victory is defined as routing the other side and dictating the terms of a post-war territorial or political settlement.Nor will the diplomats achieve victory, if victory is defined as reaching an arrangement both governments are willing to sign and abide by. Peace requires leaders who are willing and able to compromise, two elements that are conspicuously absent (if for very different reasons) on both sides.Second, while many policymakers are focused on the potential for a war over Taiwan, this seems highly unlikely in 2023. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has his hands full contending with a surge of Covid-19 cases that is overwhelming his country’s healthcare system, raising questions about the competence of the ruling Communist Party, and further weakening what was a slowing economy. China has by no means abandoned its goal of taking control of Taiwan, by force if necessary; but while it will continue to raise the pressure on Taiwan, it has most likely put off highly aggressive action for at least a few years.Third, the sleeper story of the year will be Japan’s emergence as a major geopolitical actor. Economic growth in the world’s third-largest economy has been revised upward to 1.5%, and defence spending is now on track to double, reaching 2% of GDP. Japan, with one of the most capable militaries in the region, will also more closely align itself with the US to deter or, if necessary, defend against Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Even more than is the case with Germany, 2023 will be the year Japan enters the post-post-World War II era.Fourth, North Korea will almost certainly carry out what will be its seventh nuclear test, in addition to frequent missile tests. Neither South Korea nor the US will be able to prevent such actions, while China, the only country in a position to do so, will hold off using its considerable leverage lest it weaken its neighbour and set in motion dynamics that could cause instability on its periphery.Fifth, transatlantic relations, stronger for now because of a shared willingness to stand up to Russia’s invasion and help Ukraine, will suffer from increased friction, owing to Europeans’ unhappiness with US economic protectionism and Americans’ unhappiness with the continent’s continued economic dependence on China. Ties could also suffer from emerging differences over the extent of military, economic, and diplomatic support for Ukraine and levels of defence spending.Sixth, the global economy is likely to expand more slowly than most observers currently forecast. The International Monetary Fund is predicting 2.7% overall growth, but the reality could well be lower, owing to the knock-on effects of China’s mismanagement of Covid-19 and the trajectory of the US Federal Reserve, which seems determined to continue to raise interest rates in an effort to bring down inflation. Political instability in parts of Africa and Latin America, extreme weather events, and supply-chain disruptions will also prove to be a drag on global economic performance.Seventh, the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28, set to meet in Dubai) will continue to disappoint. With near-term economic concerns trumping medium- and long-term climate considerations, the effects of global warming are likely to get worse before they get ... even worse.Eighth, Israel-Palestinian relations will become more violent as Israeli settlement activity expands and diplomacy shows no prospect of bringing about a Palestinian state on terms both Israelis and Palestinians could accept. Instead, a future that could be described as a “one-state non-solution” will come closer to becoming reality.Ninth, India will continue to frustrate those who predict great things for it. India will continue to buy arms and oil from Russia and cling to a posture of non-alignment even as it seeks greater help from the West against China. And at home, the danger is that India will continue to become progressively less secular.Lastly, Iran will likely be the dominant issue of 2023. The protests against the regime will gain traction against the backdrop of worsening economic deterioration and emerging divisions over whether to compromise with the protesters or arrest them. The 2015 nuclear deal will not be revived, given Iran’s military assistance to Russia and the US desire to avoid throwing an economic lifeline to the embattled regime. Iran’s leaders may opt to continue to advance their nuclear-weapons programme in the hopes of either achieving a breakthrough or triggering an Israeli strike, a development that would allow them to call for national unity in the face of external attack.All this may not make for a happy new year, but it will ensure an interesting one. — Project Syndicate? Richard Haass is President of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author, most recently, of the forthcoming The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens.

Green hydrogen is all the rage these days. During November’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) in Egypt, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Germany will invest more than €4bn ($4.3bn) in developing a market for it. In the United States, President Joe Biden’s administration has made “clean” hydrogen a centrepiece of its Inflation Reduction Act, which provides subsidies for renewable energies. China, too, is so invested in electrolysis that some observers already fear that it will take over the market the same way it did with photovoltaic panels. And even corporations like the Australian mining giant Fortescue are betting on it becoming a multibillion-dollar industry.When a technology is hyped to such an extent, many environmental activists tend to become nervous. Is “clean hydrogen” merely a way to greenwash so-called “blue” and “pink” hydrogen, generated from natural gas and nuclear energy, respectively? Is it an attempt to produce a magic techno-fix that vindicates absurd excesses like space tourism and hypersonic flight, when the world’s middle and upper classes should be shrinking their energy and resource consumption? Or is this the next stage of extractivism, appropriating low-income populations’ land and water under the guise of fighting climate change?The short answer to all these questions is yes. But that is neither inevitable nor the whole story. Yes, the green hydrogen dream could well develop into a nightmare if we do not get it right. Still, it is an indispensable building block of the global economy’s transition from climate-destroying fossil fuels to sustainable models based on 100% renewable energies. It may be difficult to accept this ambiguity, but the urgent need to avert a climate catastrophe requires no less.Given hydrogen’s many potential applications, some leading experts estimate that it could power 20-30% of global energy consumption by mid-century. But that does not necessarily make it the most efficient choice. Electric batteries, for example, require far fewer renewable kilowatt hours per kilometre travelled to power cars and trucks than hydrogen fuel cells or e-fuels do. Similarly, using heat pumps is more efficient than converting gas boilers to hydrogen. Organic alternatives to nitrogen fertiliser should also be given much more consideration.But there are several critical sectors with few economically viable zero-carbon alternatives to green hydrogen and its derivatives, including long-distance shipping and aviation, chemicals, and steelmaking. Notwithstanding the hype, many industries will clearly need vast amounts of clean hydrogen to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. To illustrate the scale of the challenge, Bloomberg New Energy Finance founder Michael Liebreich recently estimated that just replacing today’s “dirty” hydrogen – produced from fossil fuels – would require 143% of the wind and solar energy the world currently has.Several countries in the Global South have been blessed with world-class solar and wind potential, enabling them to produce green hydrogen at very low cost. Some, like Namibia, have built their industrial development strategy around this competitive advantage. But how could international trade in green hydrogen and its derivatives become a pathway to prosperity? And how can developing countries avoid the green extractivism trap and ensure that trade is fair and sustainable?A series of consultations and studies in Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, South Africa, Morocco, and Tunisia have explored these questions at length. A new report by the Heinrich Böll Foundation and Bread for the World synthesises their findings and highlights the need to do no harm. To prevent the green hydrogen dream from becoming a nightmare, we must develop the sector with territorial planning, and clear standards and policies, as well as uphold local communities’ right to prior informed consent. To deliver on the promise of post-fossil development and foster sustainable economies, governments must devise ambitious and realistic industrial strategies. And these strategies must be embedded in a systemic approach to sustainable development and the energy transition. Moreover, we need to consider how hydrogen is used – not just who can pay for it.None of this will happen by itself. Achieving a sustainable future is a political choice that requires leadership and co-operation. Several countries could help make fair and sustainable trade in green hydrogen a reality. Namibia, Chile, Colombia, and now (under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva) Brazil, for example, have the right political conditions for balancing green-hydrogen production with strong environmental and social standards. Over time, Argentina and South Africa could join this list and become producer countries. — Project Syndicate

Westerners have spent two decades wondering why the Russian people have fallen under the spell of Vladimir Putin. Diplomats, historians, economists, and pundits have all failed to provide a satisfying explanation. But where academics and strategists have failed, perhaps the denizens of Sesame Street, from Kermit the Frog to Elmo, might succeed.It was 1996. My homeland was in the midst of “shock therapy” – the rapid liberalisation and privatisation of its economy by decree, after the Soviet Union’s fall – and I was at Princeton working on my doctorate. One day, a report about Russia on CNN caught my attention. Unusually, it was not about a killing or business takeover or an oligarch’s rise or fall – negative coverage delivered with a holier-than-thou tone that never failed to rankle. Instead, it is a seemingly positive story: the Muppets were headed to Moscow.But listening to the CNN host’s arrogant commentary, my relief quickly gave way to frustration. The establishment of a Sesame Street in Russia was not, apparently, an example of cultural cross-pollination, enabled by the country’s opening. Rather, Miss Piggy and Big Bird would ensure that American democratic sensibilities took root in the hearts and minds of children across the vast post-Soviet space – not just in Russia, but also in Estonia, Ukraine, Georgia, and other former Soviet republics. I changed the channel.A children’s television show, defined by its positive messages about learning and sharing, was being twisted into propaganda, presented as a form of pedagogical salvation, and used as yet another declaration of America’s Cold War victory. But Russia had its own rich culture, which included not only Tolstoy and the Bolshoi, but also Good Night, Little Ones! a Soviet children’s show as clever and warm-hearted as Sesame Street.Fortunately, the team behind Sesame Street did not succumb to the attitude of moral superiority and cultural contempt that pervaded US news reports and was likely internalised by many ordinary Americans. On the contrary, according to a new book by Natasha Lance Rogoff – who, in the early 1990s, was an executive producer in charge of bringing the Muppets to Russia – the story of the show’s formation for Russian audiences was one of genuine cultural cooperation, not condescension or conquest.In Muppets in Moscow: The Unexpected Crazy True Story of Making Sesame Street in Russia, Lance Rogoff does not shy away from the story’s political thread. She openly admits that USAID and then-senator Joe Biden “spearheaded congressional support for an international Sesame Street,” touting the Muppets as “ideal ambassadors to model democratic values and the benefits of a free-market economy to children in the former Soviet Union.” But she also explains that “translating Sesame Street’s ebullient and idealistic outlook to Mother Russia was not only incredibly difficult, but also incredibly dangerous.”Lance Rogoff’s narrative includes bizarre, sordid, and all-too-human details about the morbid racketeering of the early post-Soviet years, when journalists and businesspeople were murdered on spec and Miss Piggy could be embraced as a role model for the utterly ruthless. Her rationalising, normalising, and modernising of the post-Soviet system reminded me of David Remnick’s insights, in his 1994 book Lenin’s Tomb: The Last Days of the Soviet Empire, into how Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika transformed Russia.Perhaps most important, Lance Rogoff shows that, even if Russia’s Sesame Street was fundamentally an American show, it was not about America. It certainly was not designed to serve as American propaganda. Instead, it depicted basic human values like friendship and communication – as much for the Russians and Americans who put the show together as for viewers across the former Soviet Union.Watching Sesame Street while on a visit to Moscow in 1996 – not long after seeing that CNN report – I was pleased to encounter a generous, sweet, and very well-produced show, which contained tie-in stories from the American original as well as unique stories with Russian puppets. The show’s creators had clearly worked hard to develop characters that would resonate with Russians, from the problem-solving orange monster Kubik to the imaginative pink Muppet Businka. Zeliboba – a fuzzy, red-nosed house spirit, dressed in a leaf-covered cloak – was probably the most interesting (and certainly the most polarising).Lance Rogoff does sometimes fall prey to cliché. There are too many “Boris and Natasha” moments, with Russians being depicted as cartoonish stereotypes – absurd, bumbling, affected, and heavily accented. For example, one of the female tycoons involved in the show, Irina Borisova, clicks toward a meeting late in Christian Louboutin stilettos. And the late Boris Berezovsky, who was approached for funding, calls “Bik Burd,” an “i-cone” of American culture, “as famous as Elvis Pray-esly.”Nonetheless, Lance Rogoff deserves praise not only for her storytelling, but also for her perseverance and devotion, without which Russian Sesame Street would not have happened. That would have been a loss for Russian children. As Borisova explained when she decided to offer funding, “every self-respecting individual understands that it’s time to do something for Russian children, but unfortunately, very little gets done – except talk.” At a time when Russia was “changing so quickly” – and was “still very violent” – she believed that a “show like Sesame Street could model for our people how to live in a peaceful society.”The key, as Lance Rogoff understood, was to show, not tell – to act in good faith, with decency and humanity, rather than delivering contemptuous, self-aggrandising lectures. In the 1990s, Russians were mimicking all things American. But they were also deeply conflicted, as reflected in the debates Lance Rogoff describes over Rachmaninoff and rock and roll. Russian culture is marked by extremes, and the oscillation between imitating Western models and violently rejecting them is no exception.Russian children watched Sesame Street for nearly 15 years – until 2010. Lance Rogoff says it was taken off the air because Putin no longer saw any use for it. The fact that many other cultural collaborations were also ended at around the same time supports her case. Putin had decided that Russian culture must be of and by Russians – and only he could decide what Russianness meant.In the 1990s, Russian society was so shattered by the breakdown of the communist order that it lost touch with its own values. But that did not mean it was going to become an American knockoff. Sesame Street worked because it embodied universal values. One wonders whether the Russian reality would be different today if more Americans had understood this. — Project Syndicate• Nina L Khrushcheva, Professor of International Affairs at The New School, is the co-author (with Jeffrey Tayler) of In Putin’s Footsteps: Searching for the Soul of an Empire Across Russia’s Eleven Time Zones.

After a year of big surprises, led by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the global spike in inflation rates, and the collapse of cryptocurrency ventures, what kind of year will 2023 prove to be? This kind of short-run question is hard to answer, because repercussions of events spread so quickly and unpredictably across our globalised world. But the last 12 months highlighted one major trend that will shape what happens next, in 2023 and beyond: the decline of Russia.Russian aggression is nothing new. Moscow has been invading other countries since the mid-1990s and has occupied parts of Ukrainian territory since 2014. But the brutality of Russia’s attacks since late February far exceeds what is acceptable to most countries. The most recent phase, destroying civilian energy infrastructure, is widely seen as amounting to a war crime. It is unlikely to change the course of the war, which Russia is losing.In the bigger picture, Russia has again entered a period of secular decline, during which it will have limited access to Western investment, technology, or consumer goods. Russia’s empires have collapsed before, in 1917-18 and again when the Soviet Union imploded in 1989-91. In both cases, the collapse took a while to get going, and then proved quite complete. Of course, historically Russia has also been able to reassert control, using its own resources during the Civil War of 1917-22 and getting a lot of help from Western companies during the 1990s.This time, too, we should expect a long struggle for power within Russia, implying serious existential risks for the world, including who ends up controlling Russian nuclear weapons. But the more direct economic impact will be reflected in the world energy market.Demand for Russian fossil fuels is way down. Before its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia produced about 10.8mn barrels of oil per day, of which around 8mn were exported (either as crude or refined products). The sharp decline in Russian economic activity means that more oil is available for export, but the European Union, the United States, and their allies are now buying crude from other suppliers – and the same will be true for refined products from February 2023. The International Energy Agency predicts that Russian oil exports will fall to around six million barrels per day over 2023-24. Over the medium term, India might buy 1-2 million barrels and China could sop up the rest – assuming both countries want to become more dependent on a malevolent and unreliable partner.Purchases by India, China, and a few others can still result in a lot of free cash flow and tax revenue for Russia. Whoever leads Russia will put much of these proceeds into building and buying weapons – including missiles with which it can hit a wide range of countries from long distance. Nato member countries are, one hopes, protected to some extent by the threat of retaliation, but Russia can be expected to engage in sabotage and other deniable attacks on Western energy infrastructure (and similar vulnerable strategic targets). Russia is on its way to becoming the best-financed pariah state ever.During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was careful not to attack Western Europe and the US too directly (and vice versa). Instead, both sides used proxy wars and other forms of pressure. This time, however, we should expect much more direct confrontation. The Russian elite have boxed themselves into a corner, with a bizarre set of beliefs – right-wing nationalism on steroids – and long-range weapons. Giving ground – literally or metaphorically – to these extremists, will only embolden them to take more.The need to limit over time how much cash Russia can spend on aggression is why the price cap on Russian oil exports is so important. The evidence so far is that this is working as intended, enabling India and China to buy Russian oil at a big discount compared to world prices.But further measures are needed, including accelerated investments in renewable energy to reduce world demand for oil. If we continue to depend on Russia and its allies in the OPEC+ cartel, the ability and temptation to disrupt our economies will be immense. There is now a pressing national security dimension to the energy transition.High inflation in the 1970s had multiple causes, beginning with tight economies in the 1960s (and the Vietnam War). But the problems were exacerbated by two oil price shocks, in 1973 and 1979. Opec+ members understand that they have the power to do this again, at a time of their choosing – or the next time Russia asks for a favour.Oil demand and supply are quite unresponsive to oil prices in the short run, but historically quite responsive over 5-10 years. In 2023 and beyond, the West needs to focus more intently on reducing demand for fossil fuels, particularly oil, and increasing the supply of alternative energy sources (outside the control of Russia and Opec). — Project Syndicate• Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, is a professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management and a co-chair of the Covid-19 Policy Alliance.

Bad news about the health of the $100tn global economy keeps coming as the world has entered the new year with a weakened momentum.From an economic perspective, for the pessimist, there is plenty to worry about 2023: Price shock, tight money, stalling recovery, war impact, strong dollar, housing bust, supply strains ... the list appears endless.International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that the global economy faces “a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind.”“We expect one-third of the world economy to be in recession,” Georgieva said on January 1. “Why? Because the three big economies — US, EU, China — are all slowing down simultaneously.”The IMF already warned in October that more than a third of the global economy will contract and that there is a 25% chance of global GDP growing by less than 2% in 2023, which it defines as a global recession.Data published on Saturday showed that China’s abrupt reversal of its Covid Zero policy pushed economic activity in December to the slowest pace since February 2020 as the virus swept through major cities.Purchasing manager index numbers for manufacturing showed negative readings across Europe, Turkiye and in South Korea.The world faces a recession in 2023 as higher borrowing costs aimed at tackling inflation cause a number of economies to contract, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.The global economy surpassed $100tn for the first time in 2022 but will stall in 2023 as policy makers continue their fight against soaring prices, the British consultancy said.Indeed, this was supposed to be the comeback year for the world economy following the Covid pandemic. Instead, 2022 was marked by a new war, record inflation and climate-linked disasters.It was a “polycrisis” year, a term popularised by historian Adam Tooze.Many countries are now grappling with cost-of-living crises because wages are not keeping up with inflation, forcing households to make difficult choices in their spending.Above all, 2022 was the year of inflation.Pandemic price pressures, dismissed as transitory, turned out to be enduring with Russia’s war in Ukraine causing a fresh spike in food and energy costs.Initially slow to react, the Federal Reserve and its fellow central banks were forced to play catch-up. They raised interest rates at the fastest pace in decades.By the year’s end, inflation appeared to be past its peak — but economies were stalling, as tight money began to bite.While, still-tight labour markets have provided some support, recession risks are mounting into 2023 for some of the world’s major economies, including the US and Europe.The coming months are expected to see more rate increases — and a cooling in inflation, though perhaps not by as much as central banks would like. This year is likely to turn tougher for workers, with unemployment forecast to rise.One striking feature of the world economy at the end of 2022 is the difficulty of seeing what’s coming next.In the period from the arrival of Covid to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a much-cited gauge of policy uncertainty has been at the highest levels on record.Make no mistake, 2023 is going to be eventful as well as crucial. Policy makers, businesses and investors need to prepare themselves to pursue different strategies to protect value and seize opportunities.Amid a new order of surging uncertainty, being prepared could make the difference.

The United States has a much higher crime rate than Japan. While the US population is about 2.6 times larger, it recorded 17.2 times more murders in 2019 – 16,425 compared to 950. Needless to say, Japanese tend to enjoy a sense of safety that undoubtedly contributes to our national happiness. So, on July 8, 2022, when former Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinz was assassinated at a campaign rally, our world was shaken.But such violence and lawlessness are incompatible not only with Japanese society; they are anathema to any healthy democracy. And it fits into a wider trend. In January 2021, the US witnessed its own shocking act of political violence, when supporters of then-President Donald Trump – at Trump’s urging – stormed the US Capitol, in an effort to disrupt the certification of Joe Biden’s election victory the previous November. There could be no more blatant attack on US democracy.One might be tempted to dismiss the Capitol riot as a radical act by a relatively small group of extremists – a few thousand out of a population of 300mn. It would be even easier to minimise Abe’s assassination. After all, it was committed by a single gunman with a highly personal motivation: he blamed Abe, who had ties to the Unification Church, for his mother’s financial ruin. His mother was a devout member of the Church, and she had continued to donate to it – donations that the gunman claims were forced – until the family went bankrupt.But in both the US and Japan, the perpetrators of political violence have found sympathisers. The US Capitol insurrectionists have a large base of support, as a significant share of US Republicans – even candidates in the recent midterm elections – still believe the “Big Lie” that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. It is a short leap from holding that belief to cheering those who aim to “right” the imagined wrong.Some American cultural narratives can also feed vigilantism. The US Constitution’s Second Amendment guarantees “the right of the people to keep and bear arms,” because a “well-regulated militia” is “necessary to the security of a free state.” This guarantee has not only been interpreted to prevent the introduction of reasonable gun-control laws; it has also nurtured the belief that taking up arms against the government is perfectly reasonable. The ironic result is an assault on “the security of a free state.”In Japan, there has also been sympathy for Tetsuya Yamagami, Abe’s assassin. Yamagami’s family had, indeed, suffered profoundly, and no-one should ever be compelled to donate to a cause. There is also a cultural tie here. One of the most popular Kabuki plays – Kanadehon Chushingura (“Copybook of the Treasury of Loyal Retainers”) – depicts the story of 47 master-less samurai exacting their revenge on the man who had driven their master to suicide. The samurai were executed for their vigilantism, though they come across as the heroes of the story.To be sure, Yamagami’s act will be fairly and strictly judged under Japanese law; it must not bring down Japan’s political system. And in the US, the recent midterm elections showed that the power of Trump and his Big Lie has been weakened significantly, with Trump-backed candidates performing far worse than expected. As a result, while the Republicans won a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, it was the worst midterm election performance for a party not in control of the White House in a generation. US democracy lives to fight another day.But the fact that the US has narrowly escaped capture by would-be authoritarians does not mean the threat to democracy has passed. Trump is planning his 2024 presidential bid, and there is no reason to think that, if he gains momentum again, the rest of the Republican Party will not fall back in line. Although the congressional January 6 Committee, which was charged with investigating the Capitol riot, recommended that Trump and his allies be barred from holding office, Republican opposition means that the recommendation is unlikely to be heeded. In any case, Trump has plenty of imitators within the party.The conventional wisdom, particularly in liberal circles, is that the arc of history always bends toward peace, tolerance, equality, justice, and democracy. But, as recent assaults on democracy have shown, there is no room for complacency. Those acting in their own self-interest, or in the name of an unjust, bigoted, or otherwise dangerous cause, will always try to resist. Progress must be driven by ideas, developed through political processes, and ultimately enshrined in institutions and policies.Elections alone are not enough. Even under fair election rules, voters may choose a leader who blocks or reverses progress – say, by pursuing a policy agenda that benefits one group at the expense of another. From rolling back anti-discrimination protections to changing tax rules, elected leaders who are so inclined have no shortage of ways to perpetuate inequality. Progress, in all its forms, must be nurtured through the relentless efforts of the people.As Japan and the US have learned firsthand, acts of violence can shape politics. But, if our democracies are to survive, such acts must not be allowed to do so in the ways their authors want. — Project Syndicate• Koichi Hamada, Professor Emeritus at Yale University, was a special adviser to former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe.

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A new breed of industrial policy is taking hold in the United States. Under President Joe Biden’s leadership, the federal government has created major new programmes through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act ($550bn), the CHIPS and Science Act ($280bn), and the Inflation Reduction Act ($394bn). These are not traditional spending measures to stimulate demand. Rather, as Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen explains, they are supply-side investments to boost US economic capacity, both overall and in key sectors such as semiconductors and renewable energy.While the individual provisions and funding processes differ, all three programs are based on the public-private model that has been critical to US competitiveness over the past century. They are designed to crowd-in and accelerate private investment, not substitute for it. Hence, a significant part of their funding – in fact, the majority, in the case of the IRA and CHIPS – comes in the form of tax credits for businesses.The programmes also will encourage more supportive regulatory changes – for example, in the permitting and siting of green-energy projects – by state and local governments, which are responsible for the bulk of economic development in the US. And they share various features that have come to define a new “sustainable and equitable” approach to industrial policy. These include a focus on regional economic development based on local priorities, with an emphasis on capacity-building in marginalised communities; explicit links to post-secondary education and workforce development; and cross-sector integration with key services, such as health care and education.While the success of these programmes will require collaboration by state and local governments, those authorities will also be competing for the new funding and investments. For example, the CHIPS Act’s $39bn for investments in domestic semiconductor manufacturing will be allocated by the Department of Commerce, which will assess companies’ proposals for grants and loans partly on the basis of support from state and local governments. Accordingly, several states are now developing generous incentives to help their companies.The states will also be competing – alongside their companies, civic organisations, and non-profits – for $122bn in climate-related funding under the IRA. While the Department of the Treasury oversees tax credits, a new $27bn Environmental Protection Agency grant program – the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund – makes $7bn directly accessible to cities and states, and earmarks $20bn for non-profit entities that invest directly in green projects using other financing entities such as non-profit green banks. Twenty-three green banks already exist in 17 states, including California, and have leveraged $2bn in public funds to mobilise $7bn in green investments.All three bills include place-based programmes designed to promote inclusive growth, and these have elicited complementary efforts at the state and local level. California, for example, has introduced a Community Economic Resilience Fund (CERF) with a four-year $600mn budget to support regional collaboration and inclusive development; and Phoenix has committed significant local funding and made regulatory changes to attract a $40bn investment by TSMC in new semiconductor production.Broadband deployment is especially important for regional economic development. As the Covid-19 pandemic showed, the US still has a glaring digital divide, with more than 24mn Americans lacking high-speed broadband, and many more lacking digital literacy. Thanks to the infrastructure program and the American Rescue Plan before it, however, more than $100bn in federal funding has been allocated to bring broadband to every household. It is the largest public investment to connect Americans since the creation of the interstate highway system. Still, closing the gaps in middle- and last-mile connectivity is a highly local challenge, and co-ordination across all levels of government is crucial.Finally, a healthy, skilled workforce is the most important factor in attracting and retaining employers and businesses in key sectors. Hence, many states, cities, and regions have been increasing their investments in workforce development to ensure that their residents have the right skills to benefit from new job opportunities in infrastructure, semiconductors, and climate-related industries.California is a case in point. The state spends more than any other on higher education, and has invested in new community-college apprenticeship programmes and career pathways for technical education in its public schools. At their best, programmes to develop the workforce run from preschool to higher education and then to employer engagement.The Biden administration’s three big industrial policy programmes all recognise the importance of human capital in building supply capacity, and each provides some support for skills development – primarily through tax credits to employers. The IRA, for example, contains a dozen energy-related tax credits to expand access to apprenticeships and jobs at prevailing wages. But a proposed $40bn provision for workforce-skills development did not make it into the final bill, which means that the task has been left largely to cities, states, employers, and individuals.By design, the new regional economic-development efforts are cross-sectoral and cross-governmental – from the state and local level to the federal level. Often, regional development efforts have one or more backbone institutions leading the charge and engaging with other community-based organisations and key sectors and institutions, such as education and health-care providers. In California, the Central Valley Community Foundation has created a development plan (of 19 priority investments totalling roughly $4bn over the next decade) under the guidance of a steering committee comprising 300 community leaders. Many similar efforts are in the works around the country, and many more are needed.Industrial policy is central to Biden’s economic agenda. Getting an industrial policy right is never easy, and getting a place-based one right will prove even more challenging. But doing so is now essential to achieving more equitable and sustainable growth. – Project Syndicate? Laura Tyson, a former chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton administration, is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and a member of the Board of Advisers at Angeleno Group. Lenny Mendonca, Senior Partner Emeritus at McKinsey & Company, is a former chief economic and business adviser to Governor Gavin Newsom of California and chair of the California High-Speed Rail Authority.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who rose from poverty to Brazil’s presidency before crashing into disgrace in a corruption scandal, made a spectacular comeback as leader of Latin America’s biggest economy at age 77.Lula, as he is affectionately known, took office on Sunday for a third term as president, after beating far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in a bitter election that deeply divided Brazil.Just a few years ago, the left-wing icon with a trademark raspy voice was a political pariah, controversially jailed in a corruption scandal.His convictions since quashed by the Supreme Court — which ruled the lead judge in the case had been biased — Lula is now back in the presidential palace he previously occupied from 2003-2010.An emotional Lula broke down in tears after climbing the ramp leading to the Planalto Palace during his inauguration ceremony, thanking the Brazilian people for their faith in him.“This nightmare has come to an end thanks to the sovereign vote of the people,” he said.Lula left office in 2010 as a blue-collar hero who presided over a commodity-fuelled economic boom that helped lift 30mn people from poverty.Despite fears at the time that he would be too radical, Lula’s first administration mixed trailblazing social programmes with market-friendly economic policy.He gained a reputation as a moderate and pragmatic leader.Lula also turned Brazil into a key player on the world stage, helping secure it the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro.At the end of his time in office, his approval rating stood at 87%, a level not seen before or since.But he then became mired in Brazil’s biggest-ever corruption investigation, Operation Car Wash, which uncovered the multi-billion-dollar plundering of state-run oil company Petrobras by some of the country’s most powerful politicians and business executives.Lula spent 580 days in jail from April 2018 to November 2019.He has always insisted he was the victim of a plot to sideline him from the 2018 presidential election — which Bolsonaro won, boosted by disgust with Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT). Lula’s convictions were thrown out last year by the high court — though he was not exonerated.Today, Lula is as polarising as he is popular.Lula worked as a shoeshine boy and peanut vendor before becoming a metalworker at the age of just 14.In the 1960s, he lost a finger in a workplace accident.Lula rose quickly to become head of his trade union, and led major strikes in the 1970s that challenged the then-military dictatorship.In 1980, he co-founded the Workers’ Party, standing as its candidate for president nine years later.Lula lost three presidential bids from 1989-1998, finally succeeding in 2002 and again four years later.The 2022 race was his sixth presidential campaign.Once described by former US president Barack Obama as “the most popular politician on Earth,” Lula mixes political skill with a folksy touch that endeared him to many worldwide.“He’s a very gifted politician. He’s a natural-born negotiator,” consultant Leonardo Paz of International Crisis Group Brazil said.“Lula managed to bring almost everybody from the centre-right to the left on his side against Bolsonaro” in the October election, he said.These included centrist Geraldo Alckmin, who had unsuccessfully challenged Lula for the presidency in 2006, and will now be his vice president.He has said he will not seek re-election when his current term runs out at the end of 2026. – AFP

The year 2022 witnessed many achievements by governmental bodies, as they continue their efforts in implementing Qatar National Vision 2030.The state’s successful hosting of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 was the biggest indication of the progress made in various fields.The success was a reflection of the state’s careful, long-term planning.In the security field, Qatar was ranked first among the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region for the fourth year in a row in the Global Peace Index Report for 2022.Qatar was ranked 23rd globally among 163 countries included in the report on the level of security, advancing by six places over the previous year, as the safest and most secure state.Qatar has also maintained its position as the Safest Country in the world according to Numbeo Crime Index by Country 2022 out of 142 surveyed nations.Qatar’s crime index, according to Numbeo, stands at 13.78, while its safety index is 86.22.The country’s success in the security field was thanks to the state’s implementation of the highest standards in security.The security success achieved in the World Cup and other major international tournaments and events hosted by the country is the result of political, social, and economic stability, as well as the high degree of safety confirmed by international indicators.In the services sector, The Ministry of Interior unveiled seven new services building during Milipol Qatar 2022.They were the Wakra Civil Defence Centre, Al Sailiya Police Station, Al Shamal Security Complex, Al Fazaa Police Department headquarters at Mesaimeer, Al Thumama Traffic Investigation Section, a police tracing section, and Umm Slal Police Station.The health sector meanwhile saw significant development in 2022.Public hospitals grew to 16 in 2022, compared to six in 2011 when the first National Health Strategy was launched.The number of health centres also rose to 33, compared to 24 in 2011.**media[4853]**The private sector for its part also saw significant growth, with 10 hospitals and 390 clinics opening in the year.The workforce in the health sector reached 46,371 people, compared to 20,682 in 2011.2022 saw Qatar become the first country whose municipalities all have the healthy cities status from the World Health Organisation (WHO).In that regard, the Ministry of Public Health had signed a three-year partnership with the WHO, FIFA and Supreme Committee for Delivery & Legacy and the to make the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 a beacon for physical and mental health promotion, and a model for ensuring future mega sport events are healthy and safe.More than 90% of the National Health Strategy 2018-2022 were achieved.The strategy included 54 projects and 16 goals.The Food Safety Department of the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) has obtained international accreditation from the ANSI National Accreditation Board (ANAB) in the field of inspection of imported and local foods and local establishments in accordance with the ISO/IEC 17020 system.The international accreditation confirmed the compliance of the standards and methods of inspection implemented by the Food Safety Department at the Ministry with the international standards.In education, the Ministry of Education and Higher Education continued with its strategy in 2022, lifting the number of public schools to 220.Research institutions and centres also increased to 33 in total, focusing on a wide range of research interests like the environment, energy, medicine, entrepreneurship, computing, social studies, and humanities among other fields.At the academic level, QS World University Rankings ranked QU 208 in its latest edition, an improvement of 16 places from the previous year.In addition, QU continues to place among the top six universities in the International Outlook indicator, for the seventh year in a row, according to the overall THE World University Rankings.**media[4857]**In terms of civil aviation, September 2022 witnessed Qatar’s activation of its newly developed airspace, and the launch of the first phase of the Doha Flight Information Region (FIR).In light of this development, capacity rate was increased to about 100 air movements per hour, with the number of Qatar’s incoming and outgoing air routes standing at 17 different paths in order to achieve a smoother traffic flow and guarantee greater safety.In 2022, the capacity of Hamad International Airport was expanded to welcome more than 58mn passengers annually, which contributed to a significant reduction in waiting time, thanks to the new transfer hall.As for plane boarding, five new gates were added, in addition to a new gates bus that guarantees improved accessibility and services at 12 aircraft stands.In the municipal sector, the Ministry of Municipality has accomplished many achievements on several fronts.When it comes to food security, the percentage of self-sufficiency in local vegetables increased from about 20% in 2017 to reach about 46% in 2022, an increase of about 130%.Self-sufficiency of dairy products increased from only about 28% in 2017 to 100% in 2022, which means that the sufficiency rate has quadrupled over the last five years.Self-sufficiency has also been realised by 100% of fresh broiler chicken, after standing at 50% in 2017.As for fresh red meat, the self-sufficiency rate increased from 13% in 2017 to about 18% in 2022, an increase of about 38%.As for fresh fish self-sufficiency, it stands at about 77%.The state has also paid attention to beautifying cities and developing public parks.**media[4860]**In 2022, the green area in the country multiplied by 10 folds compared to 2010, through the expansion of parks and green spaces.The number of public parks increased during the same period from 56 parks to 143 parks, an increase rate of 164%, so that the per capita share of the green area increased from 1sq m in 2010 to 16.2sq m in 2022, at a rate of increase of 16 times.In terms of environmental conservation, green growth, and limiting the effects of climate change, the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change has implemented programmes and projects aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving environmental protection, adapting to the effects of climate change, and optimising the use of water, in order to reduce water wastage and encouraging its reuse, in addition to enhancing the efficiency of gas and energy consumption, recycle waste, and increase green spaces.When it comes to civil service, the Civil Service and Government Development Bureau continued to implement future strategies and plans that enhances the productivity of human resources and government manpower, raising the level and quality of work, and improving the efficiency of government services in the country.A new set of services and updates was also launched on Kawader, in co-operation with the Ministry of Labour and the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology.Additionally, the Tamheen training programme was launched in co-operation with the Ministry of Education and Higher Education.The Civil Service and Government Development Bureau also launched a rapid recruitment campaign in coordination with the government agencies participating in the national employment platform Kawader, where employment interviews were organised with 48 government agencies, with the aim of facilitating employment procedures for job seekers registered on the platform and hiring 2,501 job seekers registered on the platform in government agencies.In the domain of administrative control, the Administrative Control and Transparency Authority has worked diligently to strengthen the legal and institutional frameworks for transparency, integrity and prevention of corruption in Qatar, and to build on the country’s achievements in this regard, given the great importance of this matter in enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of government agencies, enhancing work and investment environments in the private sector, and raising awareness of the values of integrity and transparency in line with the established cultural and social values of Qatar.The Administrative Control and Transparency Authority also succeeded in co-ordination with the concerned authorities in the country recently in many levels in this field, foremost of which is the amendment of a number of pivotal legislation in corruption prevention and combat, including the amendment of the Penal Code to ensure the criminalisation of bribery of international employees and employees of international public institutions, in addition to the amendment of the Code of Criminal Procedure to create many legal tools and means to enhance international co-operation in preventing and combating corruption, in addition to issuing the victims and witnesses protection law, to provide more protection to persons who report legal violations, especially those related to public money.These legislations included the issuance of a law regulating the right to access information, which puts Qatar among the few countries in the world that have specialised legislation in this field, ensuring the transparency of the public sector, and enhancing the confidence of international and local investors, and official and private work mechanisms in the country, in accordance with international standards in this field, especially the UN Convention against Corruption, the Arab Convention against Corruption, as well as other relevant international agreements. (QNA)

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Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s 580-day stretch behind bars imbued him with a renewed sense of social justice, the leftist’s allies and confidants said, convincing him of the need to prioritise ending poverty over boosting profits.Lula took office yesterday for an unprecedented third term, capping a dramatic turnaround for one of the world’s most enduring political leaders, who first ran for president in 1989.Jailed for graft in 2018 — the year right-wing former president Jair Bolsonaro was elected — Lula’s convictions were overturned in 2019, allowing him to oust Bolsonaro in October’s election.As he strives to unite a nation riven by economic woes, a bruising pandemic and Bolsonaro’s far-right populism, Lula is looking to his prison days for inspiration, allies and confidants said.He learned from three failed presidential bids to tone down his leftist ideals and make peace with Brazil’s powerful private sector during his 2003-10 presidency.But Lula 3.0 plans to double down on fighting poverty, ending hunger, and attacking racism, allies said, while also rewarding loyal Workers Party (PT) jail visitors with key cabinet positions.“Prison reinforced the sense that he has a duty above all to the poor in Brazil,” said Tarso Genro, a former PT governor of Rio Grande do Sul and a close Lula associate.”He went to prison strong and came out stronger.”The more ideological Lula who emerged from jail in 2019 should not be a cause for concern, friends and allies said.He is still the same pragmatist who honed his powers of persuasion as a union leader in the Sao Paulo auto plants of the 1970s, they added.Lula aides have encouraged comparisons with former South African leader Nelson Mandela, who spent over a quarter of a century behind bars as an opponent of the country’s apartheid.But many on Faria Lima, the so-called “Brazilian Wall Street,” who fondly recall the business-friendly Lula of the early 2000s are holding their breath, worried that increased social spending and a loyalist cabinet will damage Brazil’s fiscal credibility and usher in a new era of graft-stained statism.“The initial reaction to Lula 3.0 on Faria Lima is not favourable,” said economist Andre Perfeito, referring to the market dip after Lula’s spending proposal was announced. “Many investors bet on Bolsonaro winning and they almost got it right, so it is natural they are not happy.”Recent cabinet appointments — including PT leader Fernando Haddad as finance minister — have also troubled some investors.Lula also recently named PT stalwart and economist Aloizio Mercadante as head of national development bank BNDES, which during previous PT governments lent billions of reais to projects consumed by allegations of waste and graft, though bank officials have said they were transparent.Lula’s spokesman Jose Chrispiniano said the president supported fiscal responsibility and believes that strengthening the economy is the best way to combat poverty.“He does not see any contradiction between caring for the poorest and promoting growth.“On the contrary, he thinks caring for the poor and giving them the opportunity to work and consume is what generates sustainable growth,” he said.Lula’s new-found social awareness was ignited by reading books on race, slavery and hunger behind bars, as well as biographies of Fidel Castro and Nelson Mandela, according to his website.He also perused “Lulismo in crisis,” a critical review of his movement and its missteps by his former press secretary Andre Singer.It was augmented by his relationship with Rosangela da Silva, or Janja, a PT activist 20-years his younger whom he married on release and who looks set to be a key political player.Lula became a widower when his first wife Mariza died the year before he went to jail.Janja — who helped organise Lula’s election certification and Sunday’s inauguration, as well as advising on cabinet choices — was among hundreds of PT true-believers who camped outside his prison in the southern city of Curitiba.“Good morning, President Lula,” his devotees would chant as the day began, followed by “Good night, President Lula,” as he went to bed.From his 15-sq-m cell on the third floor of the Federal Police headquarters in Curitiba, Lula set about reorganising the PT and managing his legal defence.It was there he planned the failed presidential campaign of Haddad, a regular visitor who lost to Bolsonaro in 2018.When he left prison, Lula was determined to set the record straight on his imprisonment and said he wanted to be re-elected to clear his name in the people’s court.He called his imprisonment a political witch-hunt, fabricated by the right to keep him from running in 2018.Another close aide, PT Senator Humberto Costa, said Lula matured politically in jail.“What drove him to run again was the need to leave his mark, not just politically but historically, by bringing lasting change to Brazil,” Costa said. – Reuters

For much of the global economy, 2023 is going to be a tough year as the main engines of global growth — the United States, Europe and China — all experience weakening activity, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said yesterday.The new year is going to be “tougher than the year we leave behind,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on the CBS Sunday morning news programme Face the Nation.“Why? Because the three big economies — the US, EU and China — are all slowing down simultaneously,” she said.In October, the IMF cut its outlook for global economic growth in 2023, reflecting the continuing drag from the war in Ukraine as well as inflation pressures and the high interest rates engineered by central banks like the US Federal Reserve aimed at bringing those price pressures to heel.Since then, China has scrapped its zero-Covid policy and embarked on a chaotic reopening of its economy, though consumers there remain wary as coronavirus cases surge.In his first public comments since the change in policy, President Xi Jinping on Saturday called in a New Year’s address for more effort and unity as China enters a “new phase.”“For the first time in 40 years, China’s growth in 2022 is likely to be at or below global growth,” Georgieva said.Moreover, a “bushfire” of expected Covid infections there in the months ahead are likely to further hit its economy this year and drag on both regional and global growth, said Georgieva, who travelled to China on IMF business late last month.“I was in China last week, in a bubble in a city where there is zero Covid,” she said. “But that is not going to last once people start travelling.”“For the next couple of months, it would be tough for China, and the impact on Chinese growth would be negative, the impact on the region will be negative, the impact on global growth will be negative,” she said.In October’s forecast, the IMF pegged Chinese gross domestic product growth last year at 3.2% — on par with the fund’s global outlook for 2022.At that time, it also saw annual growth in China accelerating in 2023 to 4.4% while global activity slowed further.Her comments, however, suggest another cut to both the China and global growth outlooks may be in the offing later this month when the IMF typically unveils updated forecasts during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.Meanwhile, Georgieva said, the US economy is standing apart and may avoid the outright contraction that is likely to afflict as much as a third of the world’s economies.The “US is most resilient,” she said, and it “may avoid recession. We see the labour market remaining quite strong.”But that fact on its own presents a risk because it may hamper the progress the Fed needs to make in bringing US inflation back to its targeted level from the highest levels in four decades touched last year.Inflation showed signs of having passed its peak as 2022 ended, but by the Fed’s preferred measure, it remains nearly three times its 2% target.“This is a mixed blessing because if the labour market is very strong, the Fed may have to keep interest rates tighter for longer to bring inflation down,” Georgieva said. – Reuters

Happy new year to all Gulf Times readers.

This is not a polemic about whether Russia can be trusted to respect any future peace treaty with Ukraine. Nor is it a commentary on the merits of ending the war by diplomatic means. It is, rather, a reflection on the latest European paradox: While peace in Ukraine would help stem Europe’s economic haemorrhaging, the moment any peace process begins, the European Union will be divided by an internal East-West fault line, which is bound to reawaken the EU’s earlier North-South conflict.A credible peace process will require difficult negotiations involving the world’s great powers. Who will represent Europe at that high table? It is hard to imagine Polish, Scandinavian, and Baltic leaders ceding that role to their French or German counterparts.In the EU’s eastern and northeastern flanks, French President Emmanuel Macron is considered a Putin appeaser ready to impose on Ukrainians a reprehensible (to them) land-for-peace agenda. Likewise, setting aside Germany’s long-term reliance on Russian energy, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s standing as a torchbearer of Europe’s collective interest has been damaged further by his €200bn ($212bn) fiscal defence of German industry – the type of tax-funded protective shield which Germany vetoed at the EU level.Meanwhile, French and German elites pour scorn on the idea that the EU might be represented in any peace process by the likes of Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s Prime Minister, or Sanna Marin, her Finnish counterpart. “The moral crusades of the Ukraine war maximalists are fashionable now but they will hinder, not help, any peace process,” was how a German official put it to me.So, the question remains: Who will represent the EU in any future peace process?Had the EU seized upon the massive banking-cum-debt crisis of the post-2008 era to democratise its institutions, Europe might now be credibly represented by its president and foreign minister. Alas, as things stand, European citizens and national leaders would cringe at the thought of being represented by Charles Michel, the EU Council President, and Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy supremo. Macron and Scholz, alongside almost every other European president or prime minister, would surely object.The optimistic view in Brussels is that, despite its lack of legitimate envoys and military weakness, the EU will carry considerable weight in any negotiations because it is the economic powerhouse that will pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction and be the arbiter of any process by which Ukraine joins the EU single market, customs union, or even the EU itself. But is such optimism justified?The EU will undoubtedly pay huge sums and orchestrate any postwar Ukraine accession process. But there is no reason to think this will guarantee the EU an influential role during the peace process. In fact, there are good reasons to think that the EU’s role as the main funder of Ukraine’s reconstruction will divide and weaken the Union more than even the crisis a decade ago.The EU’s own European Investment Bank estimates the cost of Ukraine’s reconstruction to be around €1tn – the amount of the EU’s budget over the 2021-27 period and 40% higher than its post-pandemic recovery fund, NextGenerationEU. Already hamstrung by its domestic €200bn plan to shore up Germany’s collapsing industrial model, and the €100bn Scholz has earmarked for defence spending, Germany lacks the fiscal space to provide even a fraction of that sum.If Germany can’t pay, it is clear that the other EU member states can’t, either. The only way to pay for Ukraine would be for the EU to issue common debt, retracing the painful steps that led to the recovery fund’s creation in 2020.Pressed to deliver the cash, the EU might well go down that path, only to find it leads to vicious acrimony. True, EU leaders agreed on common debt during the pandemic. But inflation was negative at the time, and all EU members were facing an economic implosion as lockdowns killed demand across Europe. Once peace prevails in Ukraine, they will need to agree to even more common debt to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction at a time when interest rates have quadrupled, inflation is rampant, and the economic benefits to EU members are bound to be grossly uneven.Spain will question the fairness of shared debt when German companies get the lion’s share of Ukraine’s reconstruction business. Poland will protest loudly when Germany and Italy announce that, with peace restored, they will be buying energy from Russia again. Hungary will sell its acquiescence to any Ukraine fund dearly, demanding even more exemptions from the EU’s rule-of-law and transparency conditionalities. In the midst of this bedlam, the old North-South (or Calvinist-Catholic) divide, on the merits of fiscal union, will return with a vengeance.Germany already fears that France will insist on permanent, and fairly regular, issuance of common debt, which the German political class will resist, and not only because the German Constitutional Court has already ruled against the idea. The deeper reason is that the fiscal union France seems to favour would require German conglomerates to abandon a practice that is in their DNA: accumulating US assets that they purchase on the back of the large net exports to America made possible by stagnant German wages and underpriced natural gas.So, unless President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act changes Germany’s mindset by raising a protectionist barrier around the United States that kills off German net exports to America, any negotiations to end the Ukraine war are bound to aggravate the EU’s East-West divide – and then reignite the old North-South divide.None of this should be surprising. After the 2008 financial crash, the EU only papered over the North-South fault line that emerged. The war in Ukraine inevitably produced a new East-West fault line. Once peace arrives, both fault lines will only grow deeper, uglier, and impossible to ignore. — Project Syndicate? Yanis Varoufakis, a former finance minister of Greece, is leader of the MeRA25 party and Professor of Economics at the University of Athens.

More than 100mn people today are on the run from conflict and disaster. 340mn are projected to be in need of humanitarian assistance in 2023 — a figure that has grown fourfold in the past decade.Led by Somalia, Ethiopia and Afghanistan, the 20 countries that form the ‘2023 Watchlist’, which has been prepared by the International Rescue Committee, is emblematic of the challenges facing fragile and crisis-affected communities worldwide.Sadly, armed conflict, climate crisis and economic turmoil are pushing a growing minority of the world’s population into ever deeper crisis. These countries are home to just 13% of the global population and account for just 1.6% of global GDP, but they represent 81% of the forcibly displaced, 80% of the people facing crisis or catastrophic levels of food insecurity and 90% of global humanitarian need.Climate change is rapidly accelerating humanitarian emergencies by exacerbating droughts, floods and other natural disasters. The countries on IRC’s Watchlist contribute just 1.9% of global CO2 emissions yet they face some of the worst impacts of climate-related disasters.Economic turmoil rippling out from Russia — Ukraine war and the long-term impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic have disrupted supply chains, international trade and food and fuel prices, all of which drives food insecurity globally — and particularly in Watchlist countries.These countries have experienced armed conflict for an average of 12 years: conflicts devastate the infrastructure, livelihoods and services upon which communities depend to withstand shocks. Climate crisis and record drought are major reasons why Somalia and Ethiopia are on this year’s Watchlist, but the years of conflict devastated the capacity of both countries to withstand shock, pushing them to the top of the list.David Miliband, president, International Rescue Committee, said: “As well as being a warning, Watchlist 2023 is intended as a roadmap for how we can choose to strengthen the guardrails meant to limit the impact of these crises.”“But the Watchlist isn’t just a story of individual tragedies,” he said in an article released by the World Economic Forum.The 20 countries collectively can help us understand why humanitarian crisis has been allowed to spiral out of control in deadly ways.The year 2022 provided isolated examples of how crisis can be mitigated with guardrails in place.The UN-brokered six-month truce in Yemen led to an 86% drop in fatalities — a guardrail that is now at risk with the expiry of the truce.Investments in coastal shelter systems in Bangladesh saved thousands of lives when Cyclone Sitrang made landfall this October.The Ukrainian grain agreement allowed more than 12mn tonnes of food to be exported through the Black Sea, a lifeline for low- and lower-middle-income countries suffering the worst effects of the global food crisis.None of these examples ended crises, but they prevented catastrophe.The scale and nature of conflict, climate change and economic turmoil in too many places, left untended, is overloading these guardrails and creating runaway humanitarian crises. Undoubtedly, needs will continue to grow in a world with hamstrung guardrails or without them entirely!