Egypt's economic outlook for this fiscal year has brightened, according to economists in a Reuters poll, who raised their growth forecasts and cut inflation projections.
However, they expect the Egyptian pound to be weaker than they did three months ago as the country remains exposed to higher energy import costs.
The median forecast of 13 economists surveyed October 5-22 put growth at 4.7% in the fiscal year ending in June 2027, up from 4.5% in a July poll.
Growth is seen at 5.0% the following fiscal year, down from a prior forecast of 5.3%, before accelerating to 5.5% in 2028/29, unchanged from July.
Forecasts for growth in the current fiscal year ranged from 4.3% to 5.4%.
Egypt has so far weathered the regional energy shock better than previous external crises, helped by a more flexible exchange rate and stronger foreign currency buffers, Capital Economics said in a research note.
But the economy remains vulnerable to high energy import bills as well as volatile portfolio investments and any renewed pressure on tourism, remittances or Suez Canal revenue.
Inflation in the latest poll is forecast to average 12.3% in 2026/27, down from 13.5% in the July poll. It is then expected to slow to 9.6% in 2027/28 and 7.9% in 2028/29, compared with July forecasts of 10.4% and 8.6%, respectively.
Annual urban consumer inflation slowed to 13.9% in September from 14.5% in August.
The poll pointed to a markedly weaker pound than economists expected in July.
The currency was forecast at 52.14 to the dollar at the end of June 2027, compared with 49 in the previous poll. It was seen at 54.82 per dollar at the end of June 2028 and 52.50 a year later.
Seven economists provided forecasts for the pound at the end of the current fiscal year, ranging from 48.76 to 57.50 per dollar.
The US dollar hit a record against the Egyptian pound on Thursday of 55.27.
