Airlines face mounting pressure from fuel volatility and aircraft shortages, two factors that could constrain capacity growth through 2026, according to the ACI World Airport Industry Report Q1 2026.
Jet fuel prices climbed to $155 per barrel in March, widening the gap with crude oil and signalling elevated refining margins, the report stated.
The surge, according to the report, reflects geopolitical tensions and supply side pressures, which have reintroduced volatility into energy markets.
At the same time, aircraft availability remains tight. The global order backlog reached 18,100 units in May, equal to nearly 60% of the active fleet. Deliveries continue to lag behind orders, leaving an estimated shortfall of 5,600 aircraft.
Extended delivery timelines now average seven years, delaying fleet renewal and limiting airport connectivity growth.
The report pointed out that these constraints are already feeding into higher fares. “Air fare growth accelerated to 4.1% in March despite continued capacity expansion, reflecting higher fuel costs and resilient demand,” the report stated.
“Global load factors increased to 82.4%, with the Middle East the only region recording a decline,” it also stated.
Forward indicators, however, suggest demand may soften, noted the report.
Bookings for Q2 fell sharply, and capacity growth is expected to slow.
For carriers, the report stated that the challenge is balancing strong near term demand with the cost of fuel and the scarcity of new aircraft. Leasing strategies, deferred fleet renewal, and efficiency drives are likely to dominate boardroom discussions this year.
“Although deliveries are gradually recovering, orders continue to outpace deliveries, keeping supply conditions tight and limiting capacity expansion across the aviation sector,” the report also stated.