A defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan establishes a new security alliance seeking to deter a bellicose Iran, offset an unreliable US and send a message to Israel, analysts say.
As the Middle East war drags on, this alliance binds three Sunni powers — all allies of the United States — with a Nato-style clause that considers any attack on one country as an attack on all.
Analysts doubt this provision will be enforced immediately, however, as the trio seeks a resolution to the war, with Pakistan and Turkiye acting as intermediaries.
So what does the agreement mean in practical terms?
Nearly six months into the Middle East war, the US has failed to deliver a knockout blow to Iran, and Tehran continues to choke off traffic in the Strait of Hormuz while its Houthi allies disrupt shipping in the Red Sea.
This reality has upended the region's security architecture — forcing a rethink of decades of conventional wisdom rooted in US military supremacy.
Despite the archipelago of US bases across the region, American forces have struggled to intercept all of the drones and ballistic missiles fired by Iran and its proxies.
The new alliance shows "American deterrence has been significantly weakened and that the Iranian threat will increasingly need to be managed by regional powers", wrote Ali Shihabi, a political analyst close to the Saudi government.
Since the onset of the war, Saudi Arabia has grown closer to Turkiye, with whom it previously had fraught ties, as well as Egypt and Pakistan. The four nations have supported mediation in the conflict.
"The three countries are unusually complementary," said Andreas Krieg, a lecturer in security at King's College London.
Oil-rich Saudi Arabia has wealth "but limited indigenous military-industrial depth", he told AFP.
Turkiye and Pakistan, meanwhile, face finance constrictions, but have powerful militaries.
"Turkiye has technology and manufacturing capacity but needs markets and investment. Pakistan has manpower, military institutional depth and nuclear deterrence, but needs financing and industrial opportunities," he said.
The trio cannot replace the United States, but they are bridging a gap because Washington will not "restrain Israel or insulate Gulf infrastructure from Iranian retaliation".
It is in Saudi Arabia's interest to seek "several layers of security rather than one American umbrella", Krieg said, with the kingdom at the centre of this new alliance.
With these resources combined, the alliance packs a powerful punch, in theory at least.
The trio are unlikely to attack Iran should it repeat its strikes on Saudi Arabia.
Pakistan, for one, has not hit its neighbour despite signing a similar defence pact with the kingdom last year.
"Turkiye and Pakistan will not fight Iran. These countries view themselves as 'stabilisers' and want to create a political momentum to push for that," wrote Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi security analyst and researcher, agreed that neither country was likely to engage offensively in the short term, but drew a distinction between what the agreement "can deliver now versus what it aspires to become".
"If proxy attacks on Saudi territory continue and escalate, I would expect Pakistan to deepen its air defence and advisory role inside the kingdom, and Turkiye to accelerate defence-industrial transfers," he said.
He added that the "pact changes the calculus for anyone considering continued strikes on Saudi infrastructure".
Saudi Arabia has grown closer to Pakistan and Turkiye as deep divisions plague the Gulf, even as it reels from repeated attacks by Iran and its allies.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE were embroiled in a public rift before the war, and though they recently appeared to reconcile, the UAE is likely to be wary of the new pact, analysts say.
The US has long sought to build on the Abraham Accords that saw the UAE, Bahrain and others normalise relations with Israel, pushing for a regional alliance that integrates its close ally.
But the new defence pact consolidates major US allies into an alternative security architecture that rejects Israel's hegemony, analysts said.
Pakistan and Turkiye have been vocal against Israel, while Saudi Arabia has insisted it will not normalise unless Israel agrees to a path to Palestinian statehood.
"Washington would have wanted a security architecture that includes Israel and they're still keen for Saudi Arabia to normalise ties," said HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute.
"This alliance doesn't point to that in the slightest."
