The US-Israel-Iran conflict has disrupted one of the world’s most important aviation corridors, but the fallout has not hit every Middle East market the same way, according to Embraer’s Market Outlook 2026.
Turkiye and Saudi Arabia have proven more resilient than other markets in the region, largely because both countries can fall back on sizeable domestic travel and stronger point-to-point demand, the report stated.
Turkiye’s distance from the conflict zone has let its carriers pick up transfer traffic that would otherwise have moved through Gulf hubs, while Saudi Arabia has leaned on a mix of domestic travel and religious tourism to keep passenger numbers up.
“This contrasts with the more transfer-dependent Gulf hubs where carriers rely primarily on long-haul connections. The stronger the local and regional traffic base, the better airlines can withstand geopolitical shocks,” the report stated.
A chart in the report tracks year-on-year departure changes for Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and the UAE through the early months of the year. It shows Turkiye and Saudi Arabia holding up with steadier readings, sometimes positive, while other markets in the sample recorded much sharper swings.
The wider picture, Embraer’s executive summary notes, is a global jet market moving toward more mixed fleets, as airlines pair smaller, newer narrowbodies with larger aircraft to chase efficiency and flexibility.
“The efficiency of new-generation small narrowbodies will drive a trend to more mixed-aircraft fleets. Fleets with different-sized aircraft better support expansion into new and emerging markets, traffic patterns that favour short-haul over long-haul, and an increasing need for scheduling flexibility and operating efficiency,” the report stated.
Worldwide, the report projects 8,500 new jet deliveries, spread across North America, Latin America, Europe and CIS, Africa, the Middle East, China, and Asia Pacific.
Back in the region, the conflict has pushed up airline operating costs, squeezed margins, and dented passenger confidence, stated the report, but noted that “yet the region’s potential for growth remains intact despite a shift towards a more volatile and risk-driven operating environment.”
The report pointed out that government support has not let up either, with national programmes across the region continuing to treat aviation as a central plank of economic diversification. “Investment in airports, tourism infrastructure, and network development remains substantial and reaffirms the structural role of aviation in enabling trade, tourism, and broader economic growth,” the report stated.
It further stated, “The region is an established, powerful intercontinental aviation platform, but the next phase of growth will depend on creating new links within the region itself.”
That has been slow going, the report stated, adding that the number of city pairs with non-stop service within the Middle East has stayed roughly flat over the past decade, moving in a band of roughly “495” to “615” markets rather than expanding in step with capacity additions.
“The competitive structure of the market has also shifted. Low-cost carriers (LCCs) have steadily increased their presence within the region by taking share from full-service airlines in recent years,” the report stated.
It also stated, “From a network perspective, LCCs allocate a higher proportion of their seat capacity to intra-regional and domestic markets (around 50%), compared to approximately 36% for full-service carriers. Consequently, incremental capacity growth is driven by operators that are more focused on short-haul and regional connectivity.”
“The efficiency of new-generation small narrowbodies will drive a trend to more mixed-aircraft fleets. Fleets with different-sized aircraft better support expansion into new and emerging markets, traffic patterns that favour short-haul over long-haul,” the report noted.
Embraer president and CEO Arjan Meijer, in his message accompanying the report, stated that global aviation is shifting away from a centralised network toward what he called “a more distributed, multipolar reality.”
Meijer stated that airlines increasingly need a mixed-fleet strategy to match capacity with emerging travel patterns, adding that smaller, more efficient jets give carriers the agility to profitably serve thinner routes, add frequency and open markets that larger aircraft cannot sustain.
