For years, airlines in the US and Europe have gawked at the rise of Middle East carriers funneling ever more passengers through their hubs in Dubai and Doha at competitive prices with the latest jets.
Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways offered a viable alternative in the Gulf, leveraging a perfect position between three continents – Europe, Africa and Asia.
That dynamic changed when the Iran war broke out, shuttering airspaces, grounding planes and leaving regional airlines in disarray. While the loss of capacity from the Middle Eastern carriers has reduced long-haul flying overall, Western airlines are moving in to fill the gap.
Executives have sensed an opportunity to take advantage and regain ground, adding alternative routes to steal away business. Deutsche Lufthansa AG, British Airways and Air France-KLM quickly redeployed jets into countries including India, Thailand and Singapore last month to capture passengers looking for new flights. The gains in share are small so far, however, and building something with lasting momentum isn’t simple.
Bloomberg analysed widebody flights across 21 major airlines in the month before and after the war began, using data from tracking firm Flightradar24.
One issue will be whether this is a short-term blip for global air travel or prove to be a more lasting change.
For European carriers trying to steal a march on rivals, another challenge is surging fuel prices as the war disrupts energy markets. That means either fare hikes or absorbing those costs to lure in new customers, with little sense of how long the conflict will continue.
The Middle East airlines “won’t have shelved their ambitions to be global hubs,” said Rob Walker, an aviation analyst at consultancy ICF. “The Europeans, they’ve just got to try and make hay while the sun is shining.”
So far, the big increase in flight capacity has been in the US, though that reflects plans that were in motion before the Middle East disruption.
The biggest carriers, such as United Airlines and Delta Air Lines have expanded long-haul widebody flying by 11% and 12%, respectively, according to tracker Flightradar24. They added flights to existing destinations in Europe, as well as new routes to cater to well-heeled American tourists.
Jet fuel
US airlines are more exposed to surges in jet fuel prices as they’re not hedged, though they enjoyed a bump in demand last month as passengers pounced to book before those costs pushed up fares.
On the Middle East disruption, nonstop flights from the US to Asia will benefit, as will transatlantic routes where US airlines code-share with European carriers, according to Walker.
The longer the war persists, the worse it will be for the carriers with bases in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump this week remained vague on the timeline of the war and pledged more aggressive actions against Iran.
Given its geographical advantage, Turkish Airlines also gained market share in the month after the war began, according to the data analyzed by Bloomberg.
Lufthansa saw a pickup in short-term demand, but wants to make these new route switches more permanent. Chief Financial Officer Till Streichert said there’s “absolutely” the potential to move capacity to Asia on a more lasting basis.
Such moves aren’t always straightforward, particularly if there’s an aircraft mismatch. A single-aisle jet serving a European-Gulf route won’t necessarily be suitable for a longer-haul trip to Asia, and new, fuel-efficient widebody aircraft have years-long waiting lists. Plus, opening new routes takes months of preparation involving landing slots, schedules and staffing.
Meanwhile, worries about a jet fuel shortage have prompted Lufthansa management to ready crisis plans that could involve grounding planes.
Lufthansa shares are down 17% since the war began. British Airways parent IAG SA has fallen 13% in the same period, while Air France-KLM has dropped 27%. Morgan Stanley and UBS recently cut share-price targets on a number of European airlines, citing fuel costs.
Price war
While the end of the war remains unclear, what’s certain is that the Mideast carriers will return to the market hungry to regain ground, and pricing could come into play.
“I would expect the Gulf carriers to offer highly attractive fares to rebuild traffic via their hubs, so maybe the European carriers will only have a short window of opportunity to exploit high demand and high fares,” said Richard Evans, senior consultant at analytics firm Cirium.
The Middle East hub model saw Emirates and Etihad enjoy massive growth in recent decades. Emirates carried 55.6mn passengers in 2025, more than quadruple the number ferried just 20 years earlier.
That helped to make Dubai the world’s busiest international airport, but rivals say the airlines’ expansion was for years sustained by unfair subsidies.
Asian airlines have boosted their long-haul trips too, with Singapore Airlines adding services to London and Melbourne, while Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific Airways ramped up flights to Paris, Zurich and London. Air India said it’s introduced more services and Australia’s Qantas Airways is also trying to add capacity on European routes.
Flying between Asia and Europe was already tricky because many Western airlines were forced to dodge Russian airspace following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The Iran conflict has exacerbated that. With Iranian and Iraqi airspaces closed, aircraft are being routed through narrow strips over Georgia, Azerbaijan and central Asia.
“The issue for European carriers to Asia is airspace availability, and competing with Asian airlines that are more competitive and can fly over Russia,” said Conroy Gaynor, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “We think more capacity will end up on the Atlantic but have concerns on whether there is enough demand to absorb a significant increase.”
