Growing support for far-right parties is pressuring European governments to introduce stricter controls on immigration. Switzerland is set to vote on a proposal that would take the idea to the next level — imposing a cap on its population.
The initiative could lead eventually to a blanket ban on new arrivals if the number of residents rises from around 9mn currently to above 10mn, with little distinction made between refugees, skilled workers and top managers on six-figure salaries.
Citizens will likely vote on the proposal next year under the country’s unique system of plebiscites on constitutional amendments and policy, and polls suggest there’s a chance they’ll approve it. The risk is it could lead to shortages of critical skills that end up harming Switzerland’s competitiveness. The outcome will show how far citizens are willing to go to preserve some of the traits that made their country such an appealing destination.
What prompted the call for a Swiss population cap?
Switzerland’s dynamic economy has made it a major draw for foreign workers. The country is home to global businesses including UBS Group AG, Nestle SA and Novartis AG. Its relatively low taxes, highly skilled population and lean approach to government have also drawn in big foreign businesses including Google, IBM Corp and Walt Disney Co. The country’s per-capita economic output is now the sixth-highest in the world.
The nation’s population has grown steadily for almost five decades, and many locals now complain of sky-high rents, traffic jams and overcrowding on trains and buses that harm their quality of life.
The right-wing Swiss People’s Party, or SVP, won 28% of the vote in the last election with a campaign that presented Swiss citizenship as a privilege, not a right. It came up with the idea of a population limit in 2023, presenting it as a way to preserve the Swiss lifestyle and protect its environment from excessive human activity.
How fast is Switzerland’s population growing?
Switzerland’s population has grown by about 10% over the past decade. That’s much quicker than in the European Union, where the population grew less than 2% over the same period, according to World Bank data. Migration is the biggest contributor to the Swiss population increase, with the natural growth rate — the difference between births and deaths — accounting for only about a tenth of the growth.
The increase was especially high in 2023 as national statistics factored in the arrival of refugees from Ukraine for the first time. In most years, migrants have come largely from the EU or countries with which Switzerland has a free-trade and association agreement.
Is the vote likely to pass?
There’s a fair chance that it will, even though the government — which in Switzerland is always composed of the largest parties, including the SVP — opposes the plan. A poll conducted in late November and published on December 7 suggested that 48% of voters were either inclined to back the proposal or had already decided to vote for it. A smaller percentage, 41%, was against, while 11% of voters were undecided.
In Switzerland’s system of direct democracy, citizens cast ballots as much as four times a year on issues ranging from inheritance taxes to whether apes should get human rights. Support for a proposal tends to decline as the vote date draws nearer. However, an earlier survey in July also showed a 48% approval rate for the population cap idea, suggesting it has a steady base of support that is not so likely to shrink.
What would enforcing the population cap involve?
Supporters of the plan propose a multi-step arrangement that would be triggered if Switzerland’s population surpasses the 9.5mn mark before 2050. That’s quite likely to happen: Current forecasts project the country will come close to the threshold in five years and cross it by 2035.
The first target would be asylum seekers and families of foreign residents who wish to follow them into Switzerland. People admitted to the country on a temporary basis would no longer be entitled to a residence or settlement permit, citizenship or any other right of residence.
If the threshold of 10mn residents is crossed, the country would then withdraw from what the proposal describes as “population-driving” international treaties.
If the population doesn’t fall back below 10mn two years after that, Switzerland would as a final step quit the free-movement accord it has with the European Union. This would have far-reaching consequences as it would trigger the cancellation of a range of other bilateral deals the Swiss have with the bloc. It would also call into question the residence rights of some 1.5mn EU citizens currently living and working in Switzerland and threaten the country’s access to the EU’s single market.
How does Switzerland’s business community view the proposal?
Various lobby groups have expressed concerns. Economiesuisse warned of “substantial” damage from the proposal, pointing to an expected shortage of 430,000 workers by 2040 that it said could not be filled without immigration. Manufacturing lobby Swissmem said the recruitment of skilled workers from the EU is “essential” for the export-dependent sector.
Some individual business leaders support the proposal, including Ems-Chemie Holding AG Chief Executive Officer Magdalena Martullo-Blocher and businessman Thomas Matter. Both are lawmakers for the SVP in the national parliament.
What could be the impact on Switzerland and its economy?
There have been no formal estimates of the proposal’s economic impact, but it’s widely assumed it would be a drag on growth. Beside the expected labour shortages and an accelerated aging of society, there’s the risk of severe trade disruption if the bilateral agreements with the EU — the destination for more than 40% of Swiss exports — were to fall away.
The initiative’s proponents argue such issues would be offset by lower housing rents and lower costs for infrastructure and public welfare.
